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T-Bone posted:So I was looking through these teams again to run through the paces in EHM and I just have to lol really hard @ calling a team contender with an average team sv % of .898 Greiss has faced about 1500 even strength shots in his career and has posted a .929. Taking into account the variation on the small sample size he's at least an average starter in the NHL.
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Aug 18, 2015 20:35
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tofes posted:Greiss has faced about 1500 even strength shots in his career and has posted a .929. Taking into account the variation on the small sample size he's at least an average starter in the NHL. There is absolutely no likelihood of that based on that comically small sample size and his average to below average AHL numbers when actually starting 40+ games.
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Aug 18, 2015 22:28
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Thomas Greiss is the 11th to 20th best goalie in the world - tofes
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Aug 18, 2015 23:20
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In a sample size of this thread, tofes is the dumbest person in all of linear history.
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Aug 19, 2015 05:02
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T-Bone posted:There is absolutely no likelihood of that based on that comically small sample size and his average to below average AHL numbers when actually starting 40+ games. Meh, you can think whatever you want.
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Aug 19, 2015 07:12
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As far as I'm concerned, all of my fantasy teams win their respective championships every year.
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Aug 19, 2015 09:20
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eXXon posted:As far as I'm concerned, all of my fantasy teams win their respective championships every year. I don't know how this is possible when mine are clearly doing the same.
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Aug 19, 2015 13:59
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T-Bone posted:There is absolutely no likelihood of that based on that comically small sample size and his average to below average AHL numbers when actually starting 40+ games. There isn't a great deal of correlation between AHL Sv% and NHL Sv%. Some players with great AHL numbers put up very poor NHL numbers (e.g. Mike Leighton or Yann Danis) and vice versa (e.g. Corey Crawford or Pekka Rinne). Basically an AHL superstar goaltender is the same as AHL superstar forward. quote:The relationship between the AHL performance and the NHL performance proved to be pretty much random, which largely mimics the relationship between year Save% in the NHL. Thus while we can conclude that achieving a good save percentage is more difficult in the NHL than the AHL, AHL single season results have little bearing on goaltender Save% in the NHL the following season. http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2012/7/11/3147551/ahl-to-nhl-translations-save-percentage' Not to say that Greiss is anything other than an alarmingly mediocre goaltender.
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Aug 19, 2015 14:21
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Hey I had something come up for work I was in the process of updating my cheat sheet so I don't have my picks yet. I'm gonna pm some ideas over but if like 30 minutes or so has passed since I'm up I will probably miss.
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Aug 19, 2015 14:24
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It should be noted that this is last year's thread. We should probably leave.
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Aug 19, 2015 14:28
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ThinkTank posted:There isn't a great deal of correlation between AHL Sv% and NHL Sv%. Some players with great AHL numbers put up very poor NHL numbers (e.g. Mike Leighton or Yann Danis) and vice versa (e.g. Corey Crawford or Pekka Rinne). Basically an AHL superstar goaltender is the same as AHL superstar forward. An alarmingly mediocre goaltender is exactly what I'm saying he is.
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Aug 19, 2015 17:37
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ThinkTank posted:There isn't a great deal of correlation between AHL Sv% and NHL Sv%. Some players with great AHL numbers put up very poor NHL numbers (e.g. Mike Leighton or Yann Danis) and vice versa (e.g. Corey Crawford or Pekka Rinne). Basically an AHL superstar goaltender is the same as AHL superstar forward. That link only seems to use one season's worth of AHL data (the previous one) which seems kind of stupid when a few paragraphs earlier they said you need at least 3 seasons worth to have a meaningful sample. Greiss has nearly 3 full seasons of AHL sucking behind him, for what it's worth.
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Aug 20, 2015 00:18
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ThinkTank posted:It should be noted that this is last year's thread. We should probably leave. 
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Aug 22, 2015 01:47
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Haha awesome, but Bobrovsky shouldn't be on my team. Schneider was my starter.
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Aug 22, 2015 13:32
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eXXon posted:That link only seems to use one season's worth of AHL data (the previous one) which seems kind of stupid when a few paragraphs earlier they said you need at least 3 seasons worth to have a meaningful sample. I couldn't find the original article I read, but there is almost no correlation over a long period of time. You need thousands of shots at the NHL level to determine if a goaltender is NHL quality. Like forwards and defencemen, the longer a player played in the AHL there was generally less chance of them becoming a quality NHLer regardless of the stats they put up down there. It's not as pronounced as with forwards, but it exists. Basically saying "this goalie has great AHL stats therefore they will put up at least decent NHL numbers" is incorrect.
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Aug 22, 2015 13:36
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ThinkTank posted:Haha awesome, but Bobrovsky shouldn't be on my team. Schneider was my starter. Yeah I haven't finished doing the teams. I'll make a new thread when I do.
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Aug 22, 2015 16:45
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I'd just like to look back and say that my pick of Vinnie Trocheck in the 10th round was actually a great selection.
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Apr 7, 2016 05:04
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