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ShadowMoo
Mar 13, 2011

by Shine
My question is too short for D&D and too open for short questions.

So what are the odds of Russia trying to start forcibly annexing it's lost territory. If that happens, and Putin has implied he would be willing to use nukes if someone messes with him, how would the world react in a way that doesn't start up WW3?

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Lord Windy
Mar 26, 2010
Do you mean like just east Ukraine or are we talking a hypothetical where they try to recover each and everyone of the nations that used to make up the USSR?

Because I'm pretty sure the West just let Russia annex Crimea, I don't know why they wouldn't let Russia just take east Ukraine.

demonicon
Mar 29, 2011
Ukraine isn't a NATO country so a full blown war has a very low probability right now.

In my country (Germany) media is pushing for a hard stance toward Russia. But when you talk about that with people and friends most don't seem to care or think this conflict is far away.

Germany will most probably try to assume the position of an arbitrator in the upcoming conflict. If you look at the last 200 years we have been mostly very friendly with Russia, being close allies at times and even owing the formation of germany to Alexander's victory over napoleon.

So if there was as third world war to begin, Germany might very well fight on the side of Russia at the end.

Aggressive pricing
Feb 25, 2008

demonicon posted:

formation of germany to Alexander's victory over napoleon.

Uhh, I'd hate to lecture someone on their own history, but it was Napoleon who created the Confederation of the Rhine, leading to German Confederation and the War of Unification. I agree that wouldn't have happened if Napoleon hadn't been defeated, but I don't see why Russia in particular should get credit.

E: The USA has 40,000 troops in Germany, I think that might be a bit more telling towards their current alliances than wars from before the big ones(WW1 & 2). Did you forget about the whole Russian/German thing in WW2? It might have more bearing than the Napoleonic Wars.

Aggressive pricing fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Aug 30, 2014

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003

demonicon posted:

Germany will most probably try to assume the position of an arbitrator in the upcoming conflict. If you look at the last 200 years we have been mostly very friendly with Russia, being close allies at times and even owing the formation of germany to Alexander's victory over napoleon.

So if there was as third world war to begin, Germany might very well fight on the side of Russia at the end.


Except that time you killed 15 million of them and they partitioned your country for 45 years brutally oppressing about a quarter of the population.

But you are right about Germany betraying Europe.

demonicon
Mar 29, 2011

Aggressive pricing posted:

Uhh, I'd hate to lecture someone on their own history, but it was Napoleon who created the Confederation of the Rhine, leading to German Confederation and the War of Unification.

Thanks for trying to lecture me on my own history, but the formation of the Confederation of the Rhine wasn't important at all. Sure it went to Prussia after the defeat of Napoleon and yes it was where the first German Council was held.

Both of these things weren't crucial for the formation of germany though. What was crucial was:

A defeat of France, a country that had actively worked to prevent a Unification of germany for centuries. And you can argue all you want, France was defeated by Russia, the triple Alliance just picked up the scraps.

A strong German power. This could have been either Prussia or Austria.

demonicon
Mar 29, 2011

NihilismNow posted:

Except that time you killed 15 million of them and they partitioned your country for 45 years brutally oppressing about a quarter of the population.

But you are right about Germany betraying Europe.

I wasn't saying I like that.

Also Godwin

Aggressive pricing
Feb 25, 2008

demonicon posted:


A defeat of France, a country that had actively worked to prevent a Unification of germany for centuries. And you can argue all you want, France was defeated by Russia, the triple Alliance just picked up the scraps.

German unification happened in 1870, after the Franco-Prussian War. France was defeated by Russia in 1812. While there's no denying the events are connected, Napoleon III tried and failed to form an alliance with Russia, after all. It was a German defeat of France that allowed German Unification. And yes, I realize this isn't a perfect despcription of history, I'm not writing an essay for this stupid derail.

demonicon
Mar 29, 2011

Aggressive pricing posted:

German unification happened in 1870, after the Franco-Prussian War. France was defeated by Russia in 1812. While there's no denying the events are connected, Napoleon III tried and failed to form an alliance with Russia, after all. It was a German defeat of France that allowed German Unification. And yes, I realize this isn't a perfect despcription of history, I'm not writing an essay for this stupid derail.

Especially because you got this bit of wisdom playing Victoria 2.
Sorry for the derail though

So what are the odds NATO vs Germany and Russia?

Namarrgon
Dec 23, 2008

Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

demonicon posted:

So what are the odds NATO vs Germany and Russia?

Higher odds that Apollo will reach down from his celestial orb himself and scorch Kiev to the ground.

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003

demonicon posted:

I wasn't saying I like that.

Also Godwin

I don't think you know what that means.

It is totally relevant in this discussion since WW2 is kind of important in 20th century history which is a lot more relevant in the 21st century than some poo poo that happened 200 years ago.

Even without involving WW2 West Germany was training for nuclear war with Russia for 45 years and East Germany was a Soviet puppet state.

Pirate Jesus
Oct 7, 2003
He died for your booty.

demonicon posted:

Especially because you got this bit of wisdom playing Victoria 2.
Sorry for the derail though

So what are the odds NATO vs Germany and Russia?

The odds of noted NATO member Germany going to war with NATO? 100%

demonicon
Mar 29, 2011

Pirate Jesus posted:

The odds of noted NATO member Germany going to war with NATO? 100%

I agree that the odds of anyone going to war is zero percent. What I am saying is that in a case of war Germany probably won't be a participant. This is german opinion btw, not necessarily mine.

Ireland Sucks
May 16, 2004

demonicon posted:

I wasn't saying I like that.

Also Godwin

Hit a nerve have they

the worst thing is
Oct 3, 2013

by FactsAreUseless

demonicon posted:

I agree that the odds of anyone going to war is zero percent. What I am saying is that in a case of war Germany probably won't be a participant. This is german opinion btw, not necessarily mine.

In the case of a war that would necessitate NATO involvement, which is highly unlikely, I don't think Germany would have a choice..The Russkies would be banging down on your doorstep.

the worst thing is
Oct 3, 2013

by FactsAreUseless
Because if Russia attacks NATO, they're...attacking NATO. There are no half-efforts there. Which is why it's so unlikely.

Literal Hamster
Mar 11, 2012

YOSPOS

ShadowMoo posted:

Putin has implied he would be willing to use nukes if someone messes with him, how would the world react in a way that doesn't start up WW3?

Putin is not using nukes. Nobody is using nukes. Putin is just a KGB bully taking advantage of a permissive political environment.

beejay
Apr 7, 2002

Yeah I am super sure Germany would ally with Russia in any theoretical war. Definitely a thing that would happen. :stare:

Aggressive pricing
Feb 25, 2008

demonicon posted:

Especially because you got this bit of wisdom playing Victoria 2.


Actually I did a project on Otto Von Bismark ages ago, weird what stays in the head.

TLG James
Jun 5, 2000

Questing ain't easy
The same thing that happened to Russia/Georgia, except bigger?

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

demonicon posted:

Ukraine isn't a NATO country so a full blown war has a very low probability right now.

In my country (Germany) media is pushing for a hard stance toward Russia. But when you talk about that with people and friends most don't seem to care or think this conflict is far away.

Germany will most probably try to assume the position of an arbitrator in the upcoming conflict. If you look at the last 200 years we have been mostly very friendly with Russia, being close allies at times and even owing the formation of germany to Alexander's victory over napoleon.

So if there was as third world war to begin, Germany might very well fight on the side of Russia at the end.

If this is what your average German thinks then your average German must be loving retarded. By the same logic the US should be bitter enemies of Britain because they burned down the White House 200 years ago.

Germany is surrounded by countries that would not tolerate a German/Russian alliance not to mention the fact that German contains 10's of thousands of troops from the worlds only superpower. Germany would pretty clearly be fighting against Russia. The alternative is Germany being curbstomped and turned into a smoldering ruin.

The whole idea of Germany being some kind of arbiter between the West and Russia is complete nonsense and hasn't accomplished anything. 70 years ago Germany caused the deaths of 20+ million Russians, neither Putin nor Russia give a flying gently caress that a bunch of Germans look back on the good ol' friendly days other than as a means to further their own foreign policy goals by trying to fracture NATO.

Jackson Taus
Oct 19, 2011

demonicon posted:

Also Godwin

You're talking about Russo-German relations, you can't not talk about Hitler. You have no concept of the premise of Godwin's Law if you think it applies here.

demonicon posted:

So what are the odds NATO vs Germany and Russia?

Zero. There is no chance that Germany betrays NATO. Because (a) they would lose HARD, and (b) it would completely obliterate all the Pan-European stuff that they're trying to take the lead in. I could maybe buy the idea that Germany kind of half-asses their NATO obligations, but if Russia's invading a NATO power I don't see how Germany doesn't feel at least a little threatened the second Russian troops step foot on Polish or Latvian soil.

The thing I'm interested in is the energy importing - what are Europe's options in terms of importing natural gas or oil for heat in the winter if relations with Russia get colder?

Silvergun1000
Sep 17, 2007

Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.

Jackson Taus posted:

The thing I'm interested in is the energy importing - what are Europe's options in terms of importing natural gas or oil for heat in the winter if relations with Russia get colder?

Apparently a lot of extra coal is being imported to Europe due to concerns about this, but I'm not sure if there's enough capacity for the current coal power plants in Europe to make up for it even if enough coal could be delivered. I wonder if this is going to soften attitudes towards fracking / nuclear power.

Bulgogi Hoagie
Jun 1, 2012

We
The future is going to look something like this: The Russian economy is going to get obliterated under the increasing weight of economic sanctions and self imposed bans on foreign goods, entering siege mode, and eventually a likely internal coup d'état will take place once Putin's inner elite recognise how much of a nut job bent on restoring the USSR he is.
I am sure of one thing completely though: there won't be any sort of mass resistance to the government. The Russian people seem to be too accustomed to authoritarian governments and easily swayed by the promises of not caving in to the evil West and finding the "unique Russian way".

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003

Silvergun1000 posted:

Apparently a lot of extra coal is being imported to Europe due to concerns about this, but I'm not sure if there's enough capacity for the current coal power plants in Europe to make up for it even if enough coal could be delivered. I wonder if this is going to soften attitudes towards fracking / nuclear power.

It really depends on the country. The Netherlands for example is more than self sufficient in gas and has a lot of spare coal capacity, to the point that several coal plants are mothballed (with several new ones under construction :downs: ).
Just one country south Belgium is already looking at possible capacity shortages due to a nuclear plant going down unscheduled. There is not enough capacity on international power lines for the Dutch to make good the Belgian shortfall. Constructing new power lines would take years.

Some countries will be fine, others will be hosed.

E: The UK already gave out permits for widespread fracking,several other European countries are also already pursuing it.

NihilismNow fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Sep 3, 2014

demonicon
Mar 29, 2011

Ireland Sucks posted:

Hit a nerve have they

Yeah, I was drunk and would like to apologize to this thread.

Of course Germany not honoring it's Nato obligations is totally out of the window. But the reason you don't see Germany be more aggressive towards Russia is actually because of the reasons I gave earlier.

The Ukraine hasn't developed to a proxy war yet and I would be really scared to see that.

What Putin does right now actually reminds me a lot of what hitler did in the years leading up to world War 2.

Trying to get back lost territories by citing cultural reunification or the oppression of native population while at the same time probing the allies as to how far he can go.
At the same time what the EU does is in many ways almost a copy of England's appeasement policy. And as long as that continues Putin will keep probing.

Seeing as in many ways Russia is also in a position that resembles post world War 1 Germany in a way, I am honestly slightly worried.

I hope we don't wake up one day to learn that Estonia has just invoked article 5

demonicon fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Sep 3, 2014

Rhymenoserous
May 23, 2008
Ladies and gentlemen, for every one of you (And us, and admittedly sometimes me) who have lamented the fact that the average American has the geopolitical awareness of your average wood louse, I would like to present this thread as a gift to show that it's really just dumb everywhere.

Bulgogi Hoagie
Jun 1, 2012

We

Rhymenoserous posted:

Ladies and gentlemen, for every one of you (And us, and admittedly sometimes me) who have lamented the fact that the average American has the geopolitical awareness of your average wood louse, I would like to present this thread as a gift to show that it's really just dumb everywhere.

You're in for a lifetime of disappointment if you think people aren't being stupid all over the world all the time.

SHISHKABOB
Nov 30, 2012

Fun Shoe

Daysvala posted:

Putin is not using nukes. Nobody is using nukes. Putin is just a KGB bully taking advantage of a permissive political environment.

This precisely.

Justin Godscock
Oct 12, 2004

Listen here, funnyman!

demonicon posted:

Yeah, I was drunk and would like to apologize to this thread.

Of course Germany not honoring it's Nato obligations is totally out of the window. But the reason you don't see Germany be more aggressive towards Russia is actually because of the reasons I gave earlier.

The Ukraine hasn't developed to a proxy war yet and I would be really scared to see that.

What Putin does right now actually reminds me a lot of what hitler did in the years leading up to world War 2.

Trying to get back lost territories by citing cultural reunification or the oppression of native population while at the same time probing the allies as to how far he can go.
At the same time what the EU does is in many ways almost a copy of England's appeasement policy. And as long as that continues Putin will keep probing.

Seeing as in many ways Russia is also in a position that resembles post world War 1 Germany in a way, I am honestly slightly worried.

I hope we don't wake up one day to learn that Estonia has just invoked article 5

Germany isn't being harder on Russia because they get the vast majority of their gas from Russia, and for cheap, and they aren't going to go hardline on them because they KNOW (and everyone knows, not just Germany) Russia has no problem cutting people off.

If you think Russia taking over Crimea and quietly giving arms to Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine is akin to Hitler marching across Europe or the EU's current stance being like the Munich Agreement you really need to read up. Especially since we live in a world of Mass Assured Destruction which was not around until after WW2 which changes things a lot.

Russia's current problem is mass corruption and not hyperinflation. If we were talking about 1998 when their currency collapsed, you might have something but now it's not the same as Weimer Germany at all.

Estonia cannot evoke Article 5 by themselves, it has to be collective like it was after 9/11 when NATO got together and said "yup, Article 5 it is".

Justin Godscock fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Sep 4, 2014

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Justin Godscock posted:

Germany isn't being harder on Russia because they get the vast majority of their gas from Russia, and for cheap, and they aren't going to go hardline on them because they KNOW (and everyone knows, not just Germany) Russia has no problem cutting people off.

If you think Russia taking over Crimea and quietly giving arms to Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine is akin to Hitler marching across Europe or the EU's current stance being like the Munich Agreement you really need to read up. Especially since we live in a world of Mass Assured Destruction which was not around until after WW2 which changes things a lot.

Russia's current problem is mass corruption and not hyperinflation. If we were talking about 1998 when their currency collapsed, you might have something but now it's not the same as Weimer Germany at all.

Estonia cannot evoke Article 5 by themselves, it has to be collective like it was after 9/11 when NATO got together and said "yup, Article 5 it is".

Well, Estonia can invoke the article, but that doesn't guarantee the rest of NATO actually comes through with support. Whether or not countries like Germany will hold up their end of the bargain is not certain. Most likely they will, but there's still the possibility.

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Jeza
Feb 13, 2011

The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.
Ukraine is the most important buffer country that Russia has, and it is now watching the slow encroachment of the EU and NATO to its borders. It does not want Ukraine joining either.

The future of the proxy war is either it stops where it is, or Russia manages to annex further parts of East/Southern Ukraine and then stops. I feel by annexing Crimea, Russia has already achieved its main goals in this conflict.

Longer term, I'm unsure if Ukraine (whatever it looks like) will be able to join up with NATO in the near future as that would be a pretty bold and aggressive step by the West. Almost certainly, Russia would stop the gas in protest. Joining the EU may well be on the cards though, given that it doesn't pose a military threat to Russia - only an economically damaging one.

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