Should American Leftists even acknowledge the GOP anymore?

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Should American Leftists even acknowledge the GOP anymore?

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computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

MizPiz posted:

Not all Latin-American immigrants came here illegally, not all Latin-Americans are Mexican, and "most opportune" does not mean "the only chance". Except in certain cases, it's foolish to think the political affiliation of a demographic can't shift with enough time and the right messaging.

"All of the illegal immigrants are thugs" is explicitly not the right message.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 15:57

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 17:53

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Jerry Manderbilt posted:

There's a huge split between non-hispanic white Catholics and Latino Catholics, with the former breaking hard for Romney and the latter breaking overwhelmingly for Obama in 2012.

That's just one year though.

Yeah 19 points is big, but it's nothing compared to the consisten 30 and 40 point ownages that Republicans consistently get from White Protestants. In 2008 they won white Catholics by just 5 points. Even full-on racism hasn't consistently swayed white Catholics into a solid Republican voting group, so I'm skeptical that without the benefit of appeals to racism that abortion and gay marriage is enough to get Hispanic Catholics to vote for economic policies they despise, especially as the Catholic laity is liberalizing on social issues and the Pope is writing bull after bull exhorting the faithful to prioritize economic justice.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 15:58

MizPiz: May 29, 2013; by Athanatos

computer parts posted:

"All of the illegal immigrants are thugs" is explicitly not the right message.

I'm not denying that. "Thugs are coming here illegally to destroy our lives" would be fairly effective if approached correctly.

We also can't forget that not all Latin-Americans are immigrants, and that there's a bit too much of a tendency of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants being the most out spoken xenophobes.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:06

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

The whole "hispanics are natural conservatives" narrative that sometimes gets trotted out doesn't seem to be based on much:

quote:

Survey | 2013 Hispanic Values Survey: How Shifting Religious Identities and Experiences are Influencing Hispanic Approaches to Politics

Executive Summary

Hispanics are three times more likely to identify as affiliated with the Democratic Party than with the Republican Party. Half of Hispanics identify with the Democratic Party (50%), compared to 15% who identify with the Republican Party. Roughly 1-in-4 (24%) Hispanics say they are politically independent.

When asked to provide top-of-mind associations of the Republican Party and Democratic Party, Hispanics offer significantly more negative comments about the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. Nearly half (48%) of the associations Hispanics volunteered about the Republican Party were negative, about 4-in-10 (42%) were basically descriptive or neutral, and about 1-in-10 (11%) were positive. By contrast, more than one-third (35%) of the associations Hispanics volunteered about the Democratic Party were positive, 42% were basically neutral or descriptive, and 22% were negative.

The Democratic Party has a significant perception advantage over the Republican Party across a range of attributes. For example, 43% of Hispanics say the phrase �cares about people like you� better describes theDemocratic Party, compared to 12% who say it better describes the Republican Party. Notably, about 3-in-10 (29%) say the phrase describes neither party, and 13% say it describes both parties.

Less than 3-in-10 (29%) Hispanics report that they feel closer to the Republican Party than they did in the past, while nearly two-thirds (63%) of Hispanics say the same about the Democratic Party.

At this very early stage in the 2014 election cycle, Hispanic likely voters report preferring Democratic congressional candidates to Republican congressional candidates by a 2-to-1 ratio (58% vs. 28%). Among likely Hispanic voters, a majority (54%) say they would be less likely to support a candidate who opposes immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for immigrants who are currently living in the country illegally. One-in-four (25%) say they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate, and 19% report that the candidate�s views on immigration would make no difference in their vote.

The Changing Religious Profile of Hispanics

A majority of Hispanics identify as Catholic (53%), one-quarter (25%) identify as Protestant�nearly evenly divided between evangelical Protestant (13%) and mainline Protestant (12%)�and 12% of Hispanics are religiously unaffiliated. Few Hispanics (6%) identify with a non-Christian religion.

When comparing today�s Hispanic adults to their childhood religious affiliations, Catholic affiliation drops by 16 percentage points (from 69% to 53%). Evangelical Protestant affiliation has increased by 6percentage points (from 7% to 13%), while the percentage of those claiming no religious affiliation has increased by 7 percentage points (from 5% to 12%).

Hispanics generally have a more favorable impression of the current head of the Catholic Church than of the Church itself, although this favorability gap is smaller among Catholics. Nearly 7-in-10 (69%) Hispanics have a favorable view of Pope Francis, compared to 54% who have a favorable view of the Catholic Church. Among Catholics, more than 8-in-10 (84%) have a favorable view of the current pope, and roughly as many (81%) have a favorable view of the Catholic Church.

Political Priorities and Immigration Reform

Like Americans overall, Hispanics are most likely to rank jobs and unemployment (72%) as a critical issue facing the country today. However, nearly as many Hispanics (65%) report that rising health care costs are also a critical issue facing the nation. Majorities of Hispanics say the quality of public schools (55%), the federal deficit (54%), the cost of college (53%), and immigration (53%) are critical issues facing the country. Fewer Hispanics say the growing gap between rich and poor (43%), abortion (32%), and same-sex marriage (22%) are critical issues in the country today.

Two-thirds (67%) of Hispanics say that immigrants currently living in the United States illegally should be allowed to become citizens provided they meet certain requirements. Roughly 1-in-5 (17%) say they should be allowed to become permanent legal residents but not citizens, while 1-in-10 (10%) say that they should be identified and deported. There is bipartisan and cross-religious support for immigration reform among Hispanics. For example, majorities of Hispanic Democrats (72%), independents (67%), and Republicans (53%) support a path to citizenship.

The American Dream and Opportunity

Strong majorities of Hispanics believe that the U.S. economic system unfairly favors the wealthy (72%) and that hard work and determination do not guarantee success for most people today (60%).

At the same time, a majority (56%)of Hispanics believe that children from all backgrounds have adequate opportunities to be successful in America today. Hispanics who are non-citizens (65%) and Hispanics who are naturalized citizens (63%), however, are significantly more likely than native-born Hispanics (51%) to believe that in the United States children from all income groups have adequate opportunities to be successful.

Economic Issues: Strategies for Growth, Role of Government, and Health Care

By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, Hispanics favor a public investment approach to spurring economic growth over a tax-cutting approach. Roughly 6-in-10 (58%) Hispanics believe spending more on education and the nation�s infrastructure and paying for it with higher taxes among wealthy individuals and businesses is the best way to promote economic growth. One-third (33%) of Hispanics disagree, saying the best way to boost economic growth is to lower taxes on individuals and businesses and to pay for those tax cuts by cutting spending on government services and programs.

More than 7-in-10 (72%) Hispanics agree the government should do more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, compared to 25% who disagree. Nearly 6-in-10 (57%) Hispanics agree that it is the responsibility of the government to take care of people who cannot take care of themselves, compared to 40% who disagree. However, there are notable concerns among Hispanics about people taking advantage of government benefits. A majority (56%) of Hispanics believe that most people who receive welfare are taking advantage of the system, while 30% think most welfare recipients are genuinely in need of help.

Most Hispanics support the principle of a government guarantee of health care, but they are divided on Obamacare. Nearly 6-in-10 (58%) Hispanics agree that the government should guarantee health care for all citizens, even if it means raising taxes, compared to 39% who disagree. At the same time, nearly half (48%) of Hispanics support repealing and eliminating the 2010 health care law known as Obamacare, while about as many (47%) oppose repealing the law.

Social Issues: Same-Sex Marriage and Abortion

Hispanics are on different sides of the cultural divide on the issues of same-sex marriage and abortion. A majority (55%) of Hispanics favor allowing gay and lesbian Americans to marry, compared to 43% who are opposed. By contrast, a majority (52%) of Hispanics say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, compared to 46% who say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Hispanics appear willing to support allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally, even if they personally hold reservations about the morality of sex between two adults of the same gender. Hispanics are twice as likely to believe that sex between two adults of the same gender is morally wrong as believe it is morally acceptable (45% vs. 18%). Roughly one-third of Hispanics say either that it depends on the situation (8%) or that it is not a moral issue (26%).

Hispanics have a nuanced, situational view of the morality of having an abortion. Hispanics are three times more likely to say that abortion is morally wrong than to believe it is morally acceptable (32% vs. 9%). However, nearly half (48%) say their moral evaluation of abortion depends on the situation, and nearly 1-in-10 (9%) say that having an abortion is not a moral issue.

Hispanics are sharply divided by religion on the issue of same-sex marriage. More than 6-in-10 (62%) Hispanic Catholics and 8-in-10 (80%) religiously unaffiliated Hispanics favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. Hispanic mainline Protestants are divided, with 47% supporting same-sex marriage and 50% opposing it. In stark contrast, 8-in-10 (79%) evangelical Protestants oppose same-sex marriage, while just 1-in-5 (21%) support it.

Hispanics are also sharply divided by religion on the issue of abortion. Less than half (47%) of Hispanic Catholics say abortion should be legal in all or most cases; a majority (52%) say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. Mainline Protestants have a similar profile to Catholics on this issue. Evangelical Protestants have the most conservative footprint of any religious group on this issue, with nearly three-quarters (74%) saying abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. By contrast, nearly 7-in-10 (69%) religiously unaffiliated Hispanics say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Hispanic Catholics report more freedom to deviate from official church teachings on homosexuality than on abortion. A slim majority (51%) of Hispanic Catholics say it is possible to disagree with church teachings on the issue of homosexuality and remain a good Catholic, compared to 44% who say this is not possible. However, less than 4-in-10 (39%) Hispanic Catholics say it is possible to disagree with church teachings on abortion and still be considered a good Catholic, compared to a majority (55%) who say this is not possible.

But hey, I bet the GOP is totally gonna make a "serious play" for a demographic where 67% of respondents think illegal immigrants should be given a path to citizenship.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:08

Who What Now: Sep 10, 2006; by Azathoth

MizPiz posted:

I'm not denying that. "Thugs are coming here illegally to destroy our lives" would be fairly effective if approached correctly.

Do you think "Harass and demand ID from anyone who is any shade of brown" is the correct approach? Because that's he approach they've been using for awhile now and it doesn't look like they're going to stop any time soon.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:08

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Who What Now posted:

Do you think "Harass and demand ID from anyone who is any shade of brown" is the correct approach? Because that's he approach they've been using for awhile now and it doesn't look like they're going to stop any time soon.

It's possible I suppose. There's a guy I know at work whose Brazilian wife is very opposed to citizenship for illegals because she jumped through all the legal hoops, so they should too.

If Republicans could manage to appeal to "illegals are jumping the border and stealing your job after you immigrated legally" without spouting a bunch of dumb racist poo poo, tweeting racial slurs about a native-born American from San Antonio singing the national anthem and telling him to "go home" to a foreign country, bitching about businesses with bilingual signs, and they stopped cops from harassing and profiling anyone darker than John Beohner Fake-Tan Orange, they might make some gains.

But they won't because their base really is racist, and decades of dog whistling has confused a good chunk of Republicans into thinking open racism is socially acceptable again because they can't tell the difference between the coded stuff the media lets smart conservatives get away with and the blatant Cliven Bundy style stuff that gets them in trouble.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:22

woke wedding drone: Jun 1, 2003; by exmarx; Fun Shoe

talk of GOP Latino outreach. It's hard to reach out with one hand while the other hand is firing a taser with barbs made of racism.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 17:45

tbp: Mar 1, 2008; DU WIRST NIEMALS ALLEINE MARSCHIEREN

I'm Catholic but I don't have a preference between the Democrats and the Republicans. I take each issue, and each election, on it's own merit.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:13

Who What Now: Sep 10, 2006; by Azathoth

tbp posted:

I'm Catholic but I don't have a preference between the Democrats and the Republicans. I take each issue, and each election, on it's own merit.

Good for you.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:15

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

VitalSigns posted:

It's possible I suppose. There's a guy I know at work whose Brazilian wife is very opposed to citizenship for illegals because she jumped through all the legal hoops, so they should too.

How recently did she come over to the US? I knew a guy from summer camp four years ago who was of Italian-Argentine ancestry and had some fairly conservative leanings, but he noted that it was much easier for his parents to get in years ago, compared to his aunt from Venezuela who had far more hoops to jump through or something.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:16

tbp: Mar 1, 2008; DU WIRST NIEMALS ALLEINE MARSCHIEREN

Who What Now posted:

Good for you.

Thank you

# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:31

PupsOfWar: Dec 6, 2013

I'd actually be curious to see how many hard-right voters could set aside their racism in order to vote for Rubio/Cruz/Jindal over a more classical-looking, white Democratic candidate, if that ends up being the scenario.

Maybe that's the kind of thing that could lead to another George Wallace-type situation?

# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:35

Who What Now: Sep 10, 2006; by Azathoth

PupsOfWar posted:

I'd actually be curious to see how many hard-right voters could set aside their racism in order to vote for Rubio/Cruz/Jindal over a more classical-looking, white Democratic candidate, if that ends up being the scenario.

Maybe that's the kind of thing that could lead to another George Wallace-type situation?

If one of those guys actually does become the republican candidate for president I'm willing to bet that the GOP PR machine will be working in overdrive to downplay their race for exactly that reason. Which will be great when someone inevitably says the phrase "one of the good ones".

# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:50

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

Racism and classism are close related in US politics so I think it's pretty easy to imagine that many people who are very racist in their personal lives wouldn't have that much trouble voting for a Hispanic GOP candidate who wears a nice suit and talks about protecting the job creator.

Being a racist does not mean that your racist views are literally the only factor in deciding your vote. I'm sure there are people who voted for Obama but who would flip out if their daughter dated a black man.

I think the better question is whether Rubio or some other Hispanic GOP Presidential candidate could actually attract significant numbers of minority voters without also changing GOP policy in ways that would trigger a revolt. It's far from clear that changing the ethnicity of your presidential candidate is enough of a change on its own. If anyone has any actual data on this I'd be fascinated to see it.

# ? Sep 19, 2014 19:28

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Helsing posted:

I think the better question is whether Rubio or some other Hispanic GOP Presidential candidate could actually attract significant numbers of minority voters without also changing GOP policy in ways that would trigger a revolt. It's far from clear that changing the ethnicity of your presidential candidate is enough of a change on its own. If anyone has any actual data on this I'd be fascinated to see it.

There was this poll from October 2011 that showed Cain taking 25% of the black vote in a hypothetical Cain-Obama 2012 matchup, which is a pretty huge shift from Obama's 95% victories among blacks.

On the other hand, the poll also showed Cain beating Obama overall 43-41 so :lol:

# ? Sep 19, 2014 21:20

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 17:53

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Helsing posted:

Racism and classism are close related in US politics so I think it's pretty easy to imagine that many people who are very racist in their personal lives wouldn't have that much trouble voting for a Hispanic GOP candidate who wears a nice suit and talks about protecting the job creator.

Being a racist does not mean that your racist views are literally the only factor in deciding your vote. I'm sure there are people who voted for Obama but who would flip out if their daughter dated a black man.

I recall in late '08 there were some articles on white nationalists for Obama. Some of them were just accelerationists by their own lights, of course, but one fellow said he liked that Obama had married a black woman, even though he was himself mixed-race.

Progress?

# ? Sep 19, 2014 23:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Should American Leftists even acknowledge the GOP anymore?

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