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Cheesemaster200 posted:Housing statistics are also measured year over year. As we start to move past the one year mark on the theoretical "bottom", housing is only going to look better. Even if "better" only means that it is not as bad as it once was. Housing statistics are measured both yoy and sequentially, the 9.5% is the drop from just the week before. There have actually been two weeks since the expiration now, the first week was the 9.5% drop, the second week only saw a 1.5% drop. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-19/u-s-mba-mortgage-applications-index-fell-1-5-last-week.html Dr. Eldarion posted:I think the point is that the only reason they were recovering in the first place was because of the credit, and that they didn't necessarily get worse, but they didn't get any better either. Looking at weekly numbers is really a fool's game, they swing wildly. I would argue that the apps only dropping 9.5% right after the expiration is actually kinda bullish if anything. The numbers are, on average, well off the lows and have been for a while now. It appears they will stay well off the lows as well. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0413271120100505 greasyhands fucked around with this message at 23:58 on May 23, 2010 |
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May 23, 2010 23:53
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Thats actually deflationary realizing those losses since it sucks out from the money supply. Even though you are printing to cover the losses of those homes, you aren't growing the money supply. Hence why all the quantitative easing so far hasn't done poo poo but keep the banks from folding.
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May 24, 2010 06:15
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Assuming energy is a buy now, what's the thread's opinion on energy company's v. drillers. I'm looking specifically at XOM v. SLB...
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May 24, 2010 18:32
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fougera posted:Assuming energy is a buy now, what's the thread's opinion on energy company's v. drillers. I'm looking specifically at XOM v. SLB... I don't think that either is a "buy now," oil can always go lower. Anyway, cheap oil benefits refiners, not drillers.
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May 24, 2010 20:10
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mcsuede posted:Made a long-term play on STD before open this morning. Any reason?
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May 24, 2010 20:29
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Nice to have some immediate validation so I can get on with the "forget it" part of set it and forget it.
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fougera posted:Assuming energy is a buy now, what's the thread's opinion on energy company's v. drillers. I'm looking specifically at XOM v. SLB... When oil is leading lower going into summer its bad. Its a deflationary environment, sit in cash. You'll perform better.
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May 25, 2010 00:58
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what trading platforms do you guys use. I currently use Power Etrade and am looking for something with better charting tools. Thanks.
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May 25, 2010 01:22
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ayekappy posted:Hey guys, if we start hyperinflating, instead of raising insterest rates and all that poo poo, why don't we let the banks start foreclosing on some houses? Banks are actually refusing to foreclose in a lot of situations.  So hosed up.
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May 25, 2010 02:41
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Euro back onto its destiny of 1.10 to a dollar in the next couple weeks. This is getting fun.
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May 25, 2010 12:48
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ayekappy posted:Hey, if today's rally can get me some $15 MAY PUTs for .65 a pop on GNW I'll be happy. Thanks buddy, got in for an average of .15 sold half at .36 and the rest at .95.
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May 25, 2010 13:07
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Insaint posted:Thanks buddy, got in for an average of .15 sold half at .36 and the rest at .95. Np! I seem to have pretty good ideas, just not enough patience to maximize them / lack of patience makes them bad ideas.
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May 25, 2010 13:30
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greasyhands posted:Housing statistics are measured both yoy and sequentially, the 9.5% is the drop from just the week before. There have actually been two weeks since the expiration now, the first week was the 9.5% drop, the second week only saw a 1.5% drop. Last summer we saw a good string of month-over-month price increases on housing. This makes sense because at the time we were coming off what was a bottom (what it is now, I can't be sure). Nobody reported the month-over-month gains and subsequently focused on the year-over-year, which were expectedly dismal due to the period they were referencing. Now it is just the opposite. The year-over-year is showing improvement and the month-over-month has a non-adjusted loss. What do people focus on? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-fall-05-in-march-sp-2010-05-25?reflink=MW_news_stmp The non-adjusted month-over-month (which doesn't make much sense anyway, as there is a reason prices are adjusted). quote:Shadow inventory is bank foreclosures that have been in foreclosure process for a long time but never completed since with current accounting rules you have to do nothing if you keep the house under the buyers name. If you foreclosure you bring it onto the banks balance sheet and write down the asset. I don't think it will be this doomsday housing explosion which keeps the real estate market in the trash for the next decade which so many people want/are expecting.
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May 25, 2010 14:46
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In a sea of red, Dollar General continues to rise. Double dip recession on the way? Anticipating people that are too poor for Wal-Mart going to hit up the DG instead?
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May 25, 2010 19:45
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MrBigglesworth posted:In a sea of red, Dollar General continues to rise. Double dip recession on the way? Anticipating people that are too poor for Wal-Mart going to hit up the DG instead? market shits on itself for a week does a "recovery" for a day or two and then continues to poo poo itself for another week? I think investors are really just looking for any good reason to panic sell, honestly how does having a War in the Koreas actually affect the US market? or Europe for that matter. Maybe they are worried you wont be able to ship Samsung and LG devices out of Korea without it being torpedoed? edit: godamn NFLX, buy on the open sell on the close. Dr. Jackal fucked around with this message at 20:10 on May 25, 2010 |
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May 25, 2010 19:56
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Sprint (S) is above $5 for the first time in like forever. I bought when it was like ~$3.40 or something.
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May 25, 2010 20:29
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What's with Transocean moving up today?
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May 25, 2010 20:33
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Dr. Jackal posted:I think investors are really just looking for any good reason to panic sell I'm on the fence. I got 100% back in when the DJIA was around 200 down this morning, and it's taking all the willpower I have not to just sell it all right now, almost 3% up. Be greedy when others are fearful, be greedy when others are fearful... Edit: I stayed greedy - +2.99% today. Hopefully this won't all evaporate tomorrow. Dr. Eldarion fucked around with this message at 21:10 on May 25, 2010 |
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May 25, 2010 20:38
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Dr. Eldarion posted:I think it goes both ways. People are really wary of being burnt like they were a year and a half ago, but they're also just as wary of missing out on the recovery. People who missed out on the giant profits from the last rally probably have "buy" fingers that are itching right now. I took off my short SPY call spreads for a decent win this morning, and that was my last short position. I'm like 80% cash right now but did nibble at SLV yesterday and S today. If tomorrow gaps higher and stays high past noon I may buy some CLWR lottery tickets. I don't call tops or bottoms but I'm cautiously optimistic that, barring NK splitting an atom in downtown Seoul, we're headed higher. I'm a buyer in size if the week closes above 1100. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 21:55 on May 25, 2010 |
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May 25, 2010 21:41
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What do you make of this double top? lower volume on the way back up, broke the reaction low and then pulled back to it. short opportunity? on the intra-day there was a gap fill today. also note the resistance at the same level around mid-March.
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May 25, 2010 23:54
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any thoughts on bidu? i have some jun 70 puts and after this little rally today am scurred to hold on to them
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May 26, 2010 00:24
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Craptin Mypants posted:What do you make of this double top? lower volume on the way back up, broke the reaction low and then pulled back to it. short opportunity? on the intra-day there was a gap fill today. also note the resistance at the same level around mid-March. Shorting above the 200d is risky. Shorting above the 100d is ballsy. Shorting above the 50d is insane. Shorting a stock in an uptrend that closed above its 5d is unlikely to end well. The stronger volume's actually been on the up days, not the down and it's only been down 4 days this month. You're obviously free to trade however you like but there are better short set-ups out there. Edited to sound like less of a dick which was totally not my intention. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 03:13 on May 26, 2010 |
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May 26, 2010 01:01
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We bounced off of 1044 HARD and whether today's rally is actually legit doesn't matter because it'll extend for a least a little bit.
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May 26, 2010 02:20
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I can actually afford to invest a little, and outside of a target retirement Roth IRA, would a bond market ETF, like BND, be the next place* to go? e: *for a low risk, long term position Radd McCool fucked around with this message at 02:47 on May 26, 2010 |
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May 26, 2010 02:31
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just invested all my money in XIN for my school's virtual stock market competition. I predict great things.
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May 26, 2010 02:45
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semicolonsrock posted:just invested all my money in XIN for my school's virtual stock market competition. I predict great things. Is this a sarcastic joke? A penny stock in chinese real estate that has basically been falling for 6 months now?
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May 26, 2010 04:18
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Radd McCool posted:I can actually afford to invest a little, and outside of a target retirement Roth IRA, would a bond market ETF, like BND, be the next place* to go? You might look at targeted retirement funds and invest in ones that are way ahead of your retirement fund, so that it is already 50% bonds/50% stocks as an option too?
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May 26, 2010 04:18
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Christobevii3 posted:Is this a sarcastic joke? A penny stock in chinese real estate that has basically been falling for 6 months now? That's the kind of garbage that wins those imaginary money contests though. It's not investing, it's picking lottery numbers.
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May 26, 2010 08:25
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Let's list our risky (but not retarded penny stock) plays that we're hoping to hit it big with. I like China plays right now simply because they've all been decimated and while I see a slowdown in China's future I think equities have been way underpriced. I'm playing TSTC, ISSI, LDK, CYCC, CELM, TTWO LDK- vertically integrated Chinese solar that has been beat senseless. There has been a little bit of mismanagement and cash flow is bad, but I like the total package and think with an industry turnaround it could be 2-3x these levels in a year or so. Lots of open questions about various subsidies around the world. Very speculative play but I think it has limited downside risk as it's already been destroyed. In this at $6.10 TSTC - another Chinese tech company that I honestly don't know much about. I'm going solely off the balance sheet and growth rates. They appear to make random components for various tech items as well as offering various wireless coverage "solutions" for large buildings and event centers. in this at $8.59. Tiny company with fast growth and I've never seen anyone else talk about it. Could be a big one ISSI - basically a commodity DRAM/SRAM play that is absurdly cheap and is benefiting greatly from the ongoing shortage. Cash is currently 1/3 of market cap with no debt and if they meet guidance for this Q the P/E will be somewhere around 6. I rode this one from 7 to 12 then got out- now I'm back in at 9.75. CYCC - bio play with some promising stuff in the pipeline.. purely speculative and I don't know much about this sector at all. Basically a MOMO play on my part. Just watching this one for now. Played it a little earlier this year and it was a losing play to the tune of -10% CELM - Chinese electric motor maker that made me a ton of money earlier this year. Rode it from ~5 to ~9 then got out. Currently watching for another entry point. TTWO- Icahn is all over this. MS valued them at $26 about a year and a half ago in a rejected buyout attempt (whoops), Red Dead Redemption appears to be blowing out expectations and management has been lowballing guidance for some reaon. I think this one could be a double. In at 9.35, been holding it a while greasyhands fucked around with this message at 08:51 on May 26, 2010 |
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May 26, 2010 08:41
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greasyhands posted:some penny stock poo poo wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee might as well go to a casino
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May 26, 2010 11:13
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I put on a HUGE position last night after hours because I fell asleep in the afternoon  . Hopefully I won't be wanting to kill myself in the next few days.
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May 26, 2010 13:13
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Josh Lyman posted:I put on a HUGE position last night after hours because I fell asleep in the afternoon What's the bullish news? Certainly it can't be this:  edit: As in, without good news, and with all the bad news, how is making a lower low than the Feb low, a lower low than the crash low, and being nicely below the 200MA a good time to go all in bullish? I guess you're of the crowd that knows this is obviously just a 10% correction and has nowhere to go but up from here? ayekappy fucked around with this message at 13:29 on May 26, 2010 |
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May 26, 2010 13:25
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ayekappy posted:What's the bullish news? Certainly it can't be this:
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May 26, 2010 13:34
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Josh Lyman posted:That is a 6 month chart; I am ready to exit my trade at a moment's notice. Plus I think I might be wrong about Feb low being broken, apparently it was 1036.47. We were a whole 4 points away from that before the turn, so who knows.
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May 26, 2010 13:41
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Dr. Jackal posted:wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee What? Those are all real companies with real revenue and real growth, many of them having been around for over a decade. I said they were the "risky" plays in my portfolio right now, nowhere near my entire holdings. They certainly aren't "penny stock poo poo" in any traditional sense of the word, though they are high beta. What, do you only play blue chips and indices? greasyhands fucked around with this message at 15:25 on May 26, 2010 |
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May 26, 2010 15:18
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Dr. Jackal posted:wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee In fairness, the same can be said for the vast majority of stockpicking.
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May 26, 2010 17:45
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greasyhands posted:What? Those are all real companies with real revenue and real growth, many of them having been around for over a decade. I said they were the "risky" plays in my portfolio right now, nowhere near my entire holdings. They certainly aren't "penny stock poo poo" in any traditional sense of the word, though they are high beta. What, do you only play blue chips and indices? f2a posted:In fairness, the same can be said for the vast majority of stockpicking. I do that.
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May 26, 2010 20:54
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Woooohooo big man opens shorts on Moodys now! I've been holding january $10 puts on them for two weeks now and am up good. They are down nearly 7% after hours now and should get me going tomorrow well, probably a two bagger.
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May 26, 2010 23:32
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I let out an audible "Holy gently caress!" when I saw this. Hadn't checked futures since yesterday's close -- China reaffirmed its confidence in the Euro.
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May 27, 2010 10:06
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Josh Lyman posted:I put on a HUGE position last night after hours because I fell asleep in the afternoon Jesus christ. Good job! I should have noted more that we didn't break Feb lows.  Futures up 3% already. Either today is going to be a huge upday or some 9/11 poo poo is going down today.Actually, now that I've had time to wake up, it did stop right around 1092. This 1092-1060 action is just nutty. ayekappy fucked around with this message at 12:34 on May 27, 2010 |
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May 27, 2010 11:52
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Perhaps it's been there for a while but I just today noticed a link at bloomberg.com to a preview of their new site and it's a big improvement. In particular they have non-WMP streams of their radio and tv broadcasts, which kick the crap out of CNBC.
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May 27, 2010 22:14
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