|
Dr. Jackal posted:P/E suggests GTFO? and I was wondering if I should be going back into NFLX even though it's P/E is around 50 again. Careful, my Dad told me that Cramer recommended it on his shot today, so it might get a Cramer bump tomorrow at open (assuming his viewers don't know how to make pre-market orders). In case that doesn't happen, I'm shorting it tomorrow morning, with a tight stop. It hit %D: 80.8 today, which usually means overbought (but not always). We'll see what happens.
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 08:29
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 10, 2024 03:44 |
|
|
dethkon posted:Careful, my Dad told me that Cramer recommended it on his shot today, so it might get a Cramer bump tomorrow at open (assuming his viewers don't know how to make pre-market orders). In case that doesn't happen, I'm shorting it tomorrow morning, with a tight stop. It hit %D: 80.8 today, which usually means overbought (but not always). We'll see what happens. "Cramer bumps" only happen with tiny market cap stocks and it's why, for the most part, he stopped talking about small caps because the SEC was getting on his rear end. His CNBC viewers dont wake up and materially affect the share price of a 12billion company
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 08:40
|
|
|
I don't understand why Obama and Biden hinted that that jobs number would be good. Are they retarded?
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 13:42
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:I don't understand why Obama and Biden hinted that that jobs number would be good. Are they retarded? Yah I don't get that at all. Henceforward I'm using Biden and a contraindicator. Sure glad I got long MWW at the close yesterday  Edit: I would not be surprised to see a green close today. I'm not going to bet on it, but I'm not getting short of anything either. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Jun 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 14:00
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:I don't understand why Obama and Biden hinted that that jobs number would be good. Are they retarded? I can see why everyone else thought they would be good, the ADP numbers were up, but I don't know why an insider to the labor department would hint they would be good..
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 14:53
|
|
|
I'm late to the party, but I'm shorting European markets with EPV. I think there's still plenty mayhem to come -- the Euro falling to 1.10 doesn't seem like a stretch. I hope to enjoy some gains, sell, then switch over to MVV if/when that dips below $30. I won't feel comfortable with US stocks until this BP noise is taken care of with legislation leading to the company's US exile/bankruptcy. St00ert fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Jun 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 15:06
|
|
|
EURUSD broke $1.20 finally... Before, every time it got close the American markets would rally popping it up again.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 16:36
|
|
|
St00ert posted:I'm late to the party, but I'm shorting European markets with EPV. I think there's still plenty mayhem to come -- the Euro falling to 1.10 doesn't seem like a stretch. I hope to enjoy some gains, sell, then switch over to MVV if/when that dips below $30. I'm with you on the Europe part, I'm short. I somewhat disagree with the second part, I'm buying Dow at ~10,000 via DIA.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 17:41
|
|
|
Dr. Jackal posted:P/E suggests GTFO? and I was wondering if I should be going back into NFLX even though it's P/E is around 50 again. Unless salesforce.com can hold off competition the way Amazon and google did, I really don't see how they can expand their market niche that much and that quickly. But I haven't made a close examination of the business. Strict 9 posted:I keep trying to get into NFLX as I think it's a good growth story, but I've been burned twice by bad entry points. I shorted Coinstar last year, and right now I'm so glad I covered it in, I think, January. As I said at the time, Coinstar bought out its co-owners of Redbox for a price that implies about $300 million for the entire company, so it interests me that the Redbox seems to be valued by the market at about $1.4 billion, since Coinstar has certainly not in that time put another $1.1 billion into it. They have been expanding, but although Redbox division sales have improved dramatically, margins have not, so I'm not sure when or even if Redbox will generate excessive returns (as presumably their co-owner suspected when they agreed to be bought out). In the last two quarters their return on enterprise value (current market cap plus all debt) was 2.15% and their earnings yield (1/PE) was 1.1%. So, again, the market is pricing in a lot of growth or a lot of margin improvement, and if Coinstar can't pull it off the action will certainly be...interesting. And Coinstar also has January 2012 puts. Also, what's up with my Chiquita Brands. On a day like today with Euro breaking a nice round number, they're up 6%. I guess there is such a thing as oversold.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 17:47
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:Unless salesforce.com can hold off competition the way Amazon and google did, I really don't see how they can expand their market niche that much and that quickly. But I haven't made a close examination of the business. I would never try to short CoinStar during a Recession. What do they make? 12% of change... hey real time change of thought though. As people become really poor, will they be willing to pay 12%, or would they rather count it themselves? Lazy poor people would just use CoinStar, but newly unemployed, or recently unemployed but on their last dollars people would probably want that extra 12% for themselves. Maybe CoinStar was overvalued and will plunge now that it's mostly smarter people that will be the newly unemployed as opposed to the early incompetent ones.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 17:54
|
|
|
The gently caress happened to HERO yesterday?
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 18:08
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:Unless salesforce.com can hold off competition the way Amazon and google did, I really don't see how they can expand their market niche that much and that quickly. But I haven't made a close examination of the business. Good observations on Coinstar. I'm also worried expectations might be high at this point. But their growth is very impressive - 23% market share in DVD rentals, up from 15% a year ago, and 22% same store (or I guess kiosk) sales growth in the first quarter. I always assumed it wouldn't be able to compete well with Netflix, but the increasing presence of their boxes not only in grocery stores but in Wal-Marts, McDonalds, etc I think really increases their usage. As for CRM, I've never really liked that stock, but I do think they have decent protection against competitors in that once you get data into a system like that, and get people used to it, it gets very hard to move away from it even if you hate it. I know I've seen that hundreds of times with companies and their customer databases.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 18:21
|
|
|
My problem with CRM is 80% GM, 5% net margins. Terrible management and no effort to cut costs. While they have decent cash flow generation (and trade about 35-40x fcf) none of it appears to be going to shareholders. I just don't under the whole bid up growth at any cost. I mean if you have to spend 75% of your revenues to drive growth you need some obscene sustainable growth to ever improve the bottom line. I just don't see CRM being the 'GOOG' of cloud computing. They mostly cater to small/mid size companies, which will be some but definitely not a ton of the cloud computing market. IBM, SAP, ORCL all seem to be poised to take the majority share of the market in my opinion. If CRM can show that they can take a bunch of large enterprise contracts perhaps I'll change my tune, but until then what a bunch of unwarranted hype.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 18:45
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:I don't understand why Obama and Biden hinted that that jobs number would be good. Are they retarded? Who knows. There have been some barbs about a "Jobless Recovery" and "Obama lied, if there is a recovery, where is your job?" that he is probably trying to address. Why you would put your neck out and say the number will be good when either you don't know or are going to be wrong seems like a political fumble to me.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 19:41
|
|
|
Jack posted:If CRM can show that they can take a bunch of large enterprise contracts perhaps I'll change my tune, but until then what a bunch of unwarranted hype. Total agreement here - I watched a video on CRM's website explaining the virtues of cloud computing and walked away thinking: "This business just pitched me the idea that it's going to make money by promoting the great things Google is doing with google docs and gmail?" If I was in the CRM marketing department, I would think the first thing out of my mouth when explaining 'cloud computing' is all the loving cool poo poo my company has already created. Why even mention the products of the biggest competitor? I would totally short CRM if I were brave and wealthy, but I also don't have the patience to wait long enough for some economic analyst to call out this bullshit business model.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 19:45
|
|
|
Sorry to get back onto Dividends but here is my reasoning for looking into them so hard. Right now Im broke as poo poo so it doesnt matter to me much other than research to invest in a bit later. However, my mom has about $50k in a bond that she makes a measely $250 per month cash on. Im running numbers on these various div paying stocks and calculate stuff from around $500 to $800 a month. Even though it would be in 3 month pay outs, on a monthly average that is significantly more than $250. Im wondering the feasibility of having her create a dividend income basket divided up between 3 to 4 stocks so not everything will be in one and have some slight diversification. Should I even bother or would any one recommend a div basket of 3 to 5 stocks that would be recommended? Im wanting to throw CMO in as a definite, possibly some LINE or AGNC too.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 19:49
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:Sorry to get back onto Dividends but here is my reasoning for looking into them so hard. Right now Im broke as poo poo so it doesnt matter to me much other than research to invest in a bit later. If she is retired or near retiring this is a bad idea. Don't give advice to your parents for investing. If you gently caress it up they'll blame you for life and expect you to cover their money you lost. If you do want dividend stuff, look at a dividend etf that pays out monthly.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:01
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:Sorry to get back onto Dividends but here is my reasoning for looking into them so hard. Right now Im broke as poo poo so it doesnt matter to me much other than research to invest in a bit later. Aren't there a few high-yield ETFs out there? I remember somebody mentioning one in this thread, always seemed like a pretty safe way to go. edit: Well poo poo, looks like I was wrong about DJI holding 10,000, and a rally in the last hour. I might get out of it if things don't improve in the next 55 minutes. SOME PIG fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Jun 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:01
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:Sorry to get back onto Dividends but here is my reasoning for looking into them so hard. Right now Im broke as poo poo so it doesnt matter to me much other than research to invest in a bit later. Why not go bottom feeding on oil? I bought some E and TOT a little before their May dividends paid out, so you may pass at the moment, though I think TOT, in particular, is a great buy at those levels. If you're feeling ballsy, you may look at REP, which is especially cheap due to Spain's role in the European credit crisis, though that also means more risk of tightened margins and possible reduction of the dividend as cash becomes tight. Haven't been involved with them since my HTE position got bought out, but Canadian Royalty Trusts like PWE and PGH have always been reliable monthly dividend providers. The concern here is an upcoming change in Canada's tax treatment of income trusts that takes effect in 2011, which will remove a lowered tax rate they enjoyed, and obviously the increased tax burden will reduce their ability to pay dividends. Bulk shipping is still underwater (pun intended) without much hope for the immediate future, but if you don't mind some risk, you could look at oil tanker shipping, e.g. FRO, NAT, or OSG. I hold TNK myself. Freight demand is still low, and that hasn't been improving much, but those companies have steadily been increasing their dividends over the past few quarters. Don't expect to see much capital appreciation or the ridiculous double digit percentage dividends of ~2007-2008, but I think you can hold any of these companies as a reliable source of income. Large cap telecom (VZ, T, DT), tobacco (MO, LO, RAI, PM), drug companies (PFE, BMY, LLY), and utilities (DUK, D, EXC, ED) are always cited as classic sectors for dividend stocks, though I haven't spent much time looking at those and will defer to others who have. I have been tempted to take a position on EXC, given that it's trading at a 52 week low and has sigificant nuclear exposure that may allow it to benefit from Obama's pro nuclear stance, but I've held off since I've been preoccupied with potential bargains in oil at the moment.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:25
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:Sorry to get back onto Dividends but here is my reasoning for looking into them so hard. Right now Im broke as poo poo so it doesnt matter to me much other than research to invest in a bit later. $250 a month is 3 grand a year, which is a 6% yield on 50k which I think is pretty good for a safe bond these days (It is safe, isn't it?). 800 a month is 9600 a year, or nearly 20%, and no such stock exists. And remember what I said about CMO and other mortgage companies, that their huge earnings will last only as long as interest rates are artificially low.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:29
|
|
|
Thanks Tom, lots of stuff to look at here. Hobologist, help me with my math here. Lets assume just to make sure my math isn't hosed. Take E for example, per Scottrade they show a div payout today of $1.22 About May 4, the stock was about $40/share. $50K would be 1250 shares. Would that not have paid $1525 for the qtr, averaged over 3 months $508.33 $50k in CMO $11.24/share 4448 shares, last div of 50 cents =$2224/qtr or $741 per month. I know that divs will change over time, up or down, etc. Im just wanting to see if my math is correct, and I wouldnt put it all in one particular stock/fund. This is why I am investigating the feasibility of a basket. If my math is wrong, please let me know as Im wanting to do some of this on the side in the future to get some qtr income for myself down the road. MrBigglesworth fucked around with this message at 20:41 on Jun 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:35
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:$250 a month is 3 grand a year, which is a 6% yield on 50k which I think is pretty good for a safe bond these days (It is safe, isn't it?). 800 a month is 9600 a year, or nearly 20%, and no such stock exists. Yeah I wouldn't touch CMO and its ilk with a ten foot pole, especially for something in an older person's savings/retirement account. Those absolute monster dividends are never absolutely safe, whereas there are many reliable large caps that have shown a proven and sustainable history of 5-7% dividends over many years. You also want to consider that smaller companies like CMO are going to be more prone to dramatic swings, which often occur in tandem with fluctuations in the dividend (i.e. if they cut it, your principal is probably getting slammed too), and you don't see as much dramatic movement in the larger cap income stocks.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:42
|
|
|
CMO is never going to sustain that 17% dividend. You do realize that at that rate the company will literally give its shareholders their entire current market cap in cash in under 6 years?
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:51
|
|
|
Im using it as an example, forget the company right now, Im just wanting to know if my math is correct by using them and as stated I would be building a basket containing others. It just seems too good to be true that if you do have a chunk of cash available that you could make some serious dividend income even on something making 5-8% for doing absolutely nothing every quarter, or month, depending on the type. Take OSG as provided above from Tom. Todays price $37.03 If I put $10K into it Id get 270 shares. Div is currently 44 cents and has been for the last few qtrs. Assuming no change, 270x.44 would be $118.8 paid every 3 months, or averaged at $39.6 a month? MO (Altria) Assume $4000 at todays price of $20.04 = 199 shares. Last div is 35 cents. This would be 69.65 every qtr? MrBigglesworth fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Jun 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 20:58
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:Im using it as an example, forget the company right now, Im just wanting to know if my math is correct by using them. Math is fine, obviously you also account for tax after the fact, but yeah. Only thing is not every company pays dividends at the same time increment, so you just do your research and adjust the calculations for your average monthly yield based on that. Plus you were the one who mentioned CMO as a "definite" a few posts up; nobody's trying to pile on you, just addressing that remark  The "catch" is that the cost of each dividend payment is subtracted from the company's share price as it gets paid out. So if OSG paid its $.44 dividend today, the share price would accordingly drop to $36.59 to account for that, and if you bought it at $37.03 before the ex-date, you would have the same amount of capital you started with, only $.44/share of it would now have been effectively converted from stock to cash. The main benefit of dividends is that the automatic release of cash consistently takes some money off the table and protects some of your capital as you hold it. A high beta growth stock you held indefinitely could double and go down to zero without leaving you a dime from its glory days, whereas a dividend stock will constantly kick out some cash to you, so even if the share price were to fall significantly one day, you would have at least generated some revenue from dividends. And I just threw some cash into MT to swing trade with. Let's hope I get a chance to dump it at ~$30 next week. Tom Rakewell fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Jun 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 21:08
|
|
|
Yea I am up on Ex Dates and the drop the day after, tax implications and the different pay dates. CMO would make a smaller amount of the basket as the % is so high. This is something more for my stuff to research as to generate quarterly income over time in addition to regular buy and hold stock investments. Im gonna throw the idea at her and see what she thinks but would never do it just with the highest only paying dividends etc. It just seems that if the math is correct with $50,000 there is better potential for income over $250 a month. Ugh, just checked the Tax rate for dividends and it looks like if going forward Ill get screwed a bit as the tax cut provisions on dividend taxes are going to end next year. Still, Id rather be taxed on additional income that not taxed on no additional income. MrBigglesworth fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Jun 4, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 21:12
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:Yea I am up on Ex Dates and the drop the day after, tax implications and the different pay dates. CMO would make a smaller amount of the basket as the % is so high. $250/month = $3000/year= 6% annual return. Especially with interest rates where they are, that is a very respectable yield, particularly if you're just holding a stock. You're not going to make a lot more money without investing your capital in more risky ways.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2010 21:16
|
|
|
market rally on Friday? oh wait Monday? hurr.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 01:56
|
|
|
So who's going all in on NBG with me?
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 02:24
|
|
|
Thoogsby posted:So who's going all in on NBG with me? short it with you?
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 06:35
|
|
|
Hi folks, novice investor here. I am thinking I want to make a couple of contrarian bets: 1) go long on BP. Probably just buy the stock and hold it for a while. This is probably a really dumb question but is there any reason not to buy the NYSE listed stock (I just wonder because it's not an American company)? 2) take a long-term short position on gold. I have no idea how or if this is even possible. Obviously traditional shorting or buying put options on a gold fund doesn't work if the bet is intended to be long-ish term. Also feel free to tell me why these are terrible ideas that I should just abandon anyway.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 07:40
|
|
|
edit-too much retard rambling on my part, trying to research without making GBS threads up the thread further, sorry. poo poo, cant delete the attachment. Anyway, the example in the screen is for PSEC if I would have invested $7100 from a lottery scratcher I won about 4 to 5 years ago instead pissing it away buying a TV, anniversary wring for the wife, etc. My mind just cant wrap around how with a small chunk of principle and reinvesting it over a few years seems to yield a lot of loving money. I have to be doing something wrong, I just have to. MrBigglesworth fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Jun 5, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 07:51
|
|
|
Dr. Jackal posted:wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee I think your odds are better in a casino
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 09:33
|
|
|
DancingMachine posted:
If you're trying to get bargains as a result of the oil spill catastrophe I would take a look at RIG.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 12:56
|
|
|
DancingMachine posted:Hi folks, novice investor here. I am thinking I want to make a couple of contrarian bets: Why would you buy the company that is the issue and not look at the other oil companies that didn't cause the mess? I never understand this thinking. Buy AIG its cheap, or fannie and freddie, or citigroup. Chasing garbage names is most of the time going to lose you a lot of money. BP is going to come out of this paying out a ton of money and being locked out of a ton of the US's reserves.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 14:46
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Why would you buy the company that is the issue and not look at the other oil companies that didn't cause the mess? I never understand this thinking. Buy AIG its cheap, or fannie and freddie, or citigroup. Chasing garbage names is most of the time going to lose you a lot of money. BP is going to come out of this paying out a ton of money and being locked out of a ton of the US's reserves. My thinking is that BP would be more depressed than other oil companies, precisely because it is the issue. Obviously it's on the hook for paying out a lot of damages and other political punishment, but it would seem that is already priced into the stock. And my faith in the ability of the US political system to extract any really serious punishment against such a large corporation is quite low. I guess I just don't see this as a long term issue for BP, although it's true that the lawsuits will probably hang around for years before fully resolving. I will look into RIG though, thanks for the tip.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 21:16
|
|
|
I think if you buy BP you're going to be sitting around twiddling your thumbs for a while at best, or just watching the stock drop while the details still come out at worst. It's pretty clear that the general public and media have decided that BP is the villain in this and it's not a secret there was negligence involved. If I was going to take a long position as a result of this I would pick up something tangentially related to the spill (RIG/HAL) or like Christo said and just buy stock in their competitors.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 21:34
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:BP is going to come out of this paying out a ton of money and being locked out of a ton of the US's reserves. They're gonna be wrecked just like XOM after Valdez, right? XOM had a drunk captain and a broken sonar system and their entire crew wasn't given legally required rest periods, if you think the negligence in BP's case is more clearcut than that then by all means short away. It's pretty easy to see why people are trying to pick a bottom on BP greasyhands fucked around with this message at 22:30 on Jun 5, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2010 22:27
|
|
|
I have a hypothetical question for those of you in this thread who know what their doing, Say that a firm such as Goldman Sachs stock went down to $.98 cents a share (which it did sometime in april), and I decided to buy 10,000 of those. Wouldnt that be a gaurenteed profit? Can someone explain this to me, and why wouldn't everyone do something like this? Admittedly, I have little experience in the stock market, I'm still a beginner slowly learning.
|
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2010 00:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 10, 2024 03:44 |
|
|
Corn posted:I have a hypothetical question for those of you in this thread who know what their doing, No. Let my friend Lehman explain... 
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2010 00:51
|
|