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Aromatic Stretch posted:Wars can be strange things. If i gave you $317,000,000,000 and asked you to eliminate some 30-40,000 (technologically inferior) OpFor, and asked you to give me a timeframe for your victory, I doubt you would say nine and a half years (and counting). I would if I had been offered 300,000,000,000 and figured that I could squeeze out an extra 17,000,000,000 by protracting the conflict. Cut me off a fraction of a percent of that number and put me in political office, and I will gladly do what you tell me to do. Deacon Blues fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Mar 19, 2011 |
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Mar 19, 2011 23:21
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Deacon Blues posted:I think that's because the people with the power and money decided it was better for them if the dirty masses died instead of them over their disagreements. They should take note of King James IV of Scotland and the battle of Flodden Field: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Flodden_Field Standup chap. Informed England of his intention to invade, allowed the english to reposition rather than open up with his artillery and led the charge himself. Pretty dead too. No good deed goes unpunished I guess.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:22
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Aromatic Stretch posted:Wars can be strange things. If i gave you $317,000,000,000 and asked you to eliminate some 30-40,000 (technologically inferior) OpFor, and asked you to give me a timeframe for your victory, I doubt you would say nine and a half years (and counting). It's certainly a tossup, but here's the difference between Iraq and Libya: whereas it was a rational strategy to inflict enough damage on US forces to press for a retreat, that's not really possible unless you're hoping to instill mutiny. If pro-Gadaffi forces lose, it's over, they either submit to trials (which tend not to be that friendly) or they get out of dodge and live in exile. Both sides have their backs to the wall, and realize that if Gadaffi broke through to Benghazi or if the rebels broke through and pushed onto Tripoli, that'd be it for them, and especially for soldiers caught in that advance. This would be, no kidding, significant support for soldiers either mass deserting or fighting hard. Again, you know, this isn't a valuation in favor of Gadaffi forces or rebel forces. Just a call for caution and to say that being overconfident in one side (any side) could be a mistake.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:24
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Koesj posted:It's a mobile system, inside a big city and it's not radiating. Their biggest threat is a taxi driver cutting them off on a roundabout. Maybe while they're rocking out to Libyan pop music while joyriding in it someone accidentally bumps the "PAINT WITH FIRE CONTROL RADAR" button  Does anyone have any idea how these airstrikes are being directed from the ground?
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Mar 19, 2011 23:25
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I just realized something, where is Secretary Gates at? Who's been speaking for the DoD? Anyone?
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Mar 19, 2011 23:25
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breaklaw posted:I just realized something, where is Secretary Gates at? Who's been speaking for the DoD? Anyone? Haliburton told the DoD to shut the gently caress up and let them deal with it.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:26
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breaklaw posted:I just realized something, where is Secretary Gates at? Who's been speaking for the DoD? Anyone? It was mentioned earlier on one of the news outlets that he was scheduled to leave for a trip to Russia but delayed it a day to deal with the start of this conflict.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:26
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Space Monster posted:Hey guys, Gaddafi has an SA account! Well, if you'd just let Hitler do his thing, ww2 would've been significantly shorter.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:26
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breaklaw posted:I just realized something, where is Secretary Gates at? Who's been speaking for the DoD? Anyone? Their spokesman, I would hope, rather than the guy who should be actually making decisions and the like.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:27
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BIG HORNY COW posted:Maybe while they're rocking out to Libyan pop music while joyriding in it someone accidentally bumps the "PAINT WITH FIRE CONTROL RADAR" button The TLAM strikes were probably fixed site only and didn't need anything else but some GPS coordinates. edit as for the token French strikes: anything out in the desert that looked like a military vehicle and/or was tracking them.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:28
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BIG HORNY COW posted:Maybe while they're rocking out to Libyan pop music while joyriding in it someone accidentally bumps the "PAINT WITH FIRE CONTROL RADAR" button Well, the SA-5/6 operate with an active search radar. To sound like a broken record, if you want to fire it you need to turn it on, and when you do you light up like a Christmas tree. An active radar can be traced right back to its source. HARM-missiles are especially designed to home in on an active radar and more or less lodge itself in its targets rear end before vaporizing it. As for bigger targets, satellite intel and years of preparation (its not the first time we tangled with uncle Mo) are more than enough. Fact is, if the Libyan forces have brains they keep them turned off. They are that much of a hazard to operate these days.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:31
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Apparently the foreign TV channels Gaddafi had been blocking have been unblocked, including Al Jazeera.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:32
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Koesj posted:The TLAM strikes were probably fixed site only and didn't need anything else but some GPS coordinates. Yeah - but what about the Rafales and whatever other strike aircraft will be coming in to engage non-static targets like armor / self propelled AA? It would seem especially important to have something like combat controllers on the ground to determine whether a piece of armor is actively engaged in the fighting or just has people milling around it. Stroh M.D. posted:Well, the SA-5/6 operate with an active search radar. To sound like a broken record, if you want to fire it you need to turn it on, and when you do you light up like a Christmas tree. Even if it's not radiating - a SAM TELAR is a pretty big target of opportunity. BIG HORNY COW fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Mar 19, 2011 |
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Mar 19, 2011 23:32
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BIG HORNY COW posted:Yeah - but what about the Rafales and whatever other strike aircraft will be coming in to engage non-static targets like armor / self propelled AA? I think - though I'm not sure about this - the basic way this works is you attack the air defense from really far away so you don't get shot down while doing it,t then once that's been knocked out you can engage in the closer-in bombing of tanks and artillery and the like.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:34
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evilweasel posted:Their spokesman, I would hope, rather than the guy who should be actually making decisions and the like. Yeah, but Rumsfeld would have definitely been on TV at least once by now. Different styles I guess. Still, I haven't seen any civilian from Defense say anything. I'm not watching US cable though.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:35
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BIG HORNY COW posted:Yeah - but what about the Rafales and whatever other strike aircraft will be coming in to engage non-static targets like armor / self propelled AA? Screw activity. If its armoured, its a target. But I think they are keeping vehicle engagement on the low-down at the moment. Too difficult to separate friend/foe with the Libyan forces in a disorganized retreat and the NTC on the advance. The targets the French killed earlier was both a show of force and was done when any armoured vehicle outside Benghazi was clearly hostile.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:35
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Brown Moses posted:Apparently the foreign TV channels Gaddafi had been blocking have been unblocked, including Al Jazeera. I'm wondering if it's because the media (I don't know who actually maintains the blockade) sees the writing on the wall or if it's CQ doing it.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:36
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On targeting: the S-200 sites were probably well known and more mobile systems should be easily avoided by staying at a minimum altitude, doesn't bode well for on the fly decision-making though.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:38
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Space Monster posted:Hey guys, Gaddafi has an SA account!
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Mar 19, 2011 23:38
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BIG HORNY COW posted:It would seem especially important to have something like combat controllers on the ground to determine whether a piece of armor is actively engaged in the fighting or just has people milling around it. I would hazard to guess that there are plenty of spy satellites on top of Libya right now, sending live image of what happens down below to mission control.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:40
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Stroh M.D. posted:Screw activity. If its armoured, its a target. This is what I was getting at initially - I wouldn't want to be having a dance party or posing for youtube on top of some SA-8 that was abandoned / captured without someone being able to tell the strike aircraft overhead what's up.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:41
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BIG HORNY COW posted:Yeah - but what about the Rafales and whatever other strike aircraft will be coming in to engage non-static targets like armor / self propelled AA? Sure, but I doubt they are engaging based on visual confirmation at this stage. It's pitch black, plus flying that low would seriously put you at risk of a lucky ZPU-crew clipping your wings. That said, I'm not sure how detailed SAT/UAV/RECON could be. I might be underestimating it. If something else is tracking it real-time with second-precise GPS, visual confirmation would not be very mandatory.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:41
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Various drones are also being used to watch areas, along with information being provided by the TNC.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:41
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Koesj posted:On targeting: the S-200 sites were probably well known and more mobile systems should be easily avoided by staying at a minimum altitude, doesn't bode well for on the fly decision-making though. Identifying militia forces is going to be difficult and incredibly important. I'd guess anti-air locations in Benghazi are presumed green and probably not targeted. Hitting an ak ak in a pickup truck in downtown Benghazi would seem like a poor decision.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:42
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I'm curious, where are the NTC getting their arms, vehicles and ammunition? I assume there were probably government armories they raided, but how well were they equipped? How rich is Benghazi, i.e., will the NTC have the financial ability to purchase these new arms and ammunition when the current ones become run down, lost in combat or just generally broken? If they got them from armories, were the armories stocked for a prolonged conflict? Do the Coalition nations have any plans to supply NTC forces with arms and ammunition? I know Gadaffi is getting arms and ammunition from Belarus et al., but I doubt that's in effect since the no-fly zone came into effect. It doesn't really change anything knowing these or not (unless the NTC is running low on ammo and the Coalition isn't planning to send stuff, then I guess they're in trouble), but I'm just curious.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:43
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BIG HORNY COW posted:This is what I was getting at initially - I wouldn't want to be having a dance party or posing for youtube on top of some SA-8 that was abandoned / captured without someone being able to tell the strike aircraft overhead what's up. That's actually a serious concern. There are no direct lines of communication between the NTC on the ground and NATO in the air. Hopefully they are sticking to over-and-beyond-obvious targets of opprtunity.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:44
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BlackJosh posted:well hello there. It's not unusual for things to happen that way. Who'd have thought an obscure Serbian terrorist killing the Austro-Hungarian equivalent of Prince Charles would have thrown the whole world into conflict and destroyed the entire 19th century European political and economic system?
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Mar 19, 2011 23:44
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Nombres posted:I'm curious, where are the NTC getting their arms, vehicles and ammunition? I assume there were probably government armories they raided, but how well were they equipped? How rich is Benghazi, i.e., will the NTC have the financial ability to purchase these new arms and ammunition when the current ones become run down, lost in combat or just generally broken? Local arsenals, and parts of the military that revolted and joined the rebels. They are largely much more poorly armed than Quadaffi's forces.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:45
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Egypt has been providing small arms to the rebels, plus army units joined the rebels and they've had access to ammo dumps and armouries.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:45
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Nombres posted:I'm curious, where are the NTC getting their arms, vehicles and ammunition? I assume there were probably government armories they raided, but how well were they equipped? How rich is Benghazi, i.e., will the NTC have the financial ability to purchase these new arms and ammunition when the current ones become run down, lost in combat or just generally broken? Egypt has begun supplying them apparently. Also they are getting revenue from at least one oil company.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:45
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Nenonen posted:I would hazard to guess that there are plenty of spy satellites on top of Libya right now, sending live image of what happens down below to mission control. It's night in Libya right now, which is why they've said that the next operational phase won't start for at least another 10 hours when there's been a chance to check over the damage caused by the initial strike using satellites.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:45
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There's probably loads of stockpiles around to keep the NTC going for at least a while and with reports of Egyptian shipments coming in I don't think they'll run out of 12,7mm very soon. e;f;b
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Mar 19, 2011 23:46
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t3ch3 posted:It's night in Libya right now, which is why they've said that the next operational phase won't start for at least another 10 hours when there's been a chance to check over the damage caused by the initial strike using satellites. Switch on the infrared on your global hawk and you can see the sites burning from 50 miles away.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:47
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Nombres posted:I'm curious, where are the NTC getting their arms, vehicles and ammunition? I assume there were probably government armories they raided, but how well were they equipped? How rich is Benghazi, i.e., will the NTC have the financial ability to purchase these new arms and ammunition when the current ones become run down, lost in combat or just generally broken? Egypt has been supplying small arms. Strictly out of curiosity, how would Belarus supply Gadaffi ? Egypt doesn't seem likely, France has some influence over Chad and there's a NFZ in effect with an arms embargo and a ban on flights.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:47
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Fun rumour of the night, Gaddafi has tried to kill himself.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:48
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Nombres posted:I'm curious, where are the NTC getting their arms, vehicles and ammunition? I assume there were probably government armories they raided, but how well were they equipped? How rich is Benghazi, i.e., will the NTC have the financial ability to purchase these new arms and ammunition when the current ones become run down, lost in combat or just generally broken? Everything seems to indicate that they are indeed government-issue, plundered or provided by turncoat Libyan soldiers. Libya have been under an arms embargo for quite a few years and the rebels themselves haven't had the capacity to open up lines of supply outside Libya, especially considering they weren't recognized by anyone other than France and did not control the borders. That may change now. I'm not aware of any plans to supply the rebels, but there certainly have been suggestions.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:48
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Brown Moses posted:Fun rumour of the night, Gaddafi has tried to kill himself. Hope he didn't kill his dog first 
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Mar 19, 2011 23:49
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Brown Moses posted:Fun rumour of the night, Gaddafi has tried to kill himself. Wait, tried? What, is he some 15-year old emo teenager? Did we learn about this from his LiveJournal?
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Mar 19, 2011 23:49
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There's been quite a bit of talk since the airstrikes started about how there's no support from the Arab countries. The BBC just posted that the UAE and Qatar have stepped up and offered about 30 aircraft, and Turkey is getting involved too.quote:2238: Turkey, which is a member of Nato, says in a foreign ministry statement it will make the "necessary preparations" to implement the no-fly zone, according to Reuters.
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Mar 19, 2011 23:49
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It's coming from this Twitter account, been a good source of info before: http://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi
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Mar 19, 2011 23:50
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