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Golbez posted:And that's maybe the genius of committing solely to air strikes - can't really up against troops that aren't there. The only troops they'll see are their countrymen, who curiously don't look like the crusaders. That may be why the rate of defections on the front lines seems high. But if Gaddafi can withstand a siege of Tripoli and the rebels don't make any significant gains, civilians will stay clueless about who they are fighting against.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 20:25 |
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# ? Mar 28, 2024 20:01 |
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There's an NTC press conference starting about Major Younis, could be pretty huge news, and not good news either.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 20:27 |
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J33uk posted:The trouble with this is that everyone was saying the same thing in April. There are certainly reports that at night Tripoli gets a little more rebellious, but again, we've been hearing that since April as well. One of the reasons this thread isn't getting a huge amount of posts for an ongoing international effort to support a rebellion is that the news is effectively the same every day. Brown Moses does a hell of a great job of keeping us up to date, but the pattern is the same every week. The Rebels have great big offensive that's going to start the end game, they capture a few villages, get repulsed and eventually grind their way to the target they're actually aiming for over the course of a month or so. The process then starts again. Oh and NATO loving hates any storage building in Waddan. I think the rebels are starting to run out of time with regards to international support too. The UK have locked themselves in regardless but with the EU crisis, massive austerity measures, no clear end in sight and a humanitarian crisis that's only going to get worse, people will be reconsidering their views on this. The next vote from NATO on extending operations will be interesting.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 20:29 |
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Here's the details coming from the press conference:quote:AbdulJalil head of NTC: We are sorry to announce the death of Gen. Younis and two of his friends Col. Khamis and Major Maqdoor
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:22 |
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Brown Moses posted:Here's the details coming from the press conference: Hmm. I wonder if this actually happened, or if this is just propaganda. If he really was causing problems for the NTC, they could've easily killed him and blamed it on Gaddafi to avoid problems. On the other hand, though, if the people and the world ever found out, it would be an absolutely massive stepback for the NTC, so I dunno if they would be willing to take that sort of risk. I can see him getting shot by some gunmen, though, since Gaddafi's soldiers probably really hated Mr. Younis and all that. I wonder what this will cause in the long term.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:36 |
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Interesting tweets relating to it from Brian Conley, who works for Alive in Libya:quote:just heard strange story from #libya friend who's father was w/ #younis on frontlines 4am 50 cars arrived and #younis disappeared w them Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Jul 28, 2011 |
# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:37 |
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Sounds like an assassination and whitewash at first blush, but I'm willing to wait and see what information comes out over the next few days.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:48 |
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poo poo gets murkier, via @alihashem_AJA of Al Jazeera:quote:Loyalists to late gen younes told me that abduljaleel's version of the death isn't accurate
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:49 |
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Brown Moses posted:poo poo gets murkier, via @alihashem_AJA of Al Jazeera: Great, have they just shafted the whole thing?
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:55 |
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Younis had a lot of very loyal soldiers who could be very pissed off about what has happened, it could lead to them attacking the NTC directly. This could be a disaster.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:56 |
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So, it looks like the NTC has gone off the deep end and hosed themselves over completely. Now they'll have to fight with Younis's soldiers AND have to explain this to NATO. There's no way I can see this ending well.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 21:58 |
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It won't effect Misrata and Nafusa, but it seems it's already stopped the advance on Brega, Richard Colbourn of the BBC tweeted this:quote:How might death of Younis change the conflict? Rebels in #Misrata have heard that fighters supportive of Younis pulled back to Benghazi from around Brega. But #Misrata rebels say there are no Younis suporters this far west and so don't expect impact on Zlitan push.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:01 |
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Brown Moses posted:Younis had a lot of very loyal soldiers who could be very pissed off about what has happened, it could lead to them attacking the NTC directly. This could be a disaster. Why would they do something as stupid as killing the head of their military forces just when they were finally putting together a credible offensive AND getting major diplomatic recognition? It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:03 |
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Rumour is the other major leader of the military in the NTC suspected Younis was playing both sides. At the moment it's all rumours, but they could be the sort of rumours that start up riots in Benghazi.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:05 |
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Brown Moses posted:It won't effect Misrata and Nafusa, but it seems it's already stopped the advance on Brega, Richard Colbourn of the BBC tweeted this: So... it's possible we might get a splintering? Tripoli, the Benghazi area fighting between the NTC and Younis-loyal forces, and a third, Misrata-based rebel government without the Younis issues? Is Misrata's government officially loyal to the NTC anyway, or is it simply a matter of sharing the same enemy?
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:06 |
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There's direct support to the Misrata rebels from the NTC, and communication between the two, but really the NTC doesn't have much influence outside of Benghazi. Evan Hill of AJE also made a good point:quote:The fact that rebels have arrested one of the killers yet don't have Younis's body is the most troublesome immediate aspect of this.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:08 |
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Brown Moses posted:quote: "The fact that rebels have arrested one of the killers yet don't have Younis's body is the most troublesome immediate aspect of this."
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:10 |
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The NTC story is he was shot by a group of gunmen, one of which they captured, yet they don't even have his body. It just sounds weird.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:13 |
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Just a random thought. I'm kind of an amateur military historian, and one thing above all is striking me as odd. This entire conflict, almost every facet of it, is being fought conventionally. Sure no one is using uniforms, really, but everything else is straight WWII era Western influenced fighting. There's no carbombings, no suicide attackers, only the expected pro-CQ round-ups and maybe assassinations. Basically everything that was the hallmark of an armed independence conflict in the 20th century. It's set piece battles, with a more or less clear front, using conventional strategy. I hope it stays that way, because Libyan civilians caught in the middle really don't need the added horror of asymmetric warfare.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:18 |
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Just imagine being a rebel supporting person in Tripoli right now... "Hey those guys coming to liberate us all? Turns out they don't all get along". This looks absolutely terrible, let's hope things calm down and something good comes out of this.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:27 |
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Brown Moses posted:Rumour is the other major leader of the military in the NTC suspected Younis was playing both sides. At the moment it's all rumours, but they could be the sort of rumours that start up riots in Benghazi. I'm guessing it was an internal power struggle that ended in a CQ style solution. Considering some members of the NTC operated in CQ's govt, and knew the tactics implemented...well tradition is hard to break. CQ must be happy as a pig in poo poo over this, especially if the assault on Brega has stopped.
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 22:35 |
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Dima Khatib, of Al Jazeera, is also Tweeting from Benghaziquote:My friends .. I am here.. at the Tibesty Hotel in Benghazi where the shootings have been happening in past hour
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# ? Jul 28, 2011 23:00 |
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To me it seems like Gadaffi supporters shot him the same way they shot up the Al Jazeera reporter while he was on the way to the trial. This poo poo isn't good, but I'm hoping that the rebels can pull through and that there's enough commanders to replace Younis and continue the push.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 05:40 |
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But where is the body?!? Something smells fishy here.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 06:14 |
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Jut posted:But where is the body?!? Something smells fishy here. I'm just desperately hoping whatever is up doesn't ruin the entire rebellion and let Gaddafi take back ground. Last thing I want to be reading in 10 years is alternate senarios if General Younis wasn't killed and the Rebels didn't lose.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 06:34 |
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ThePutty posted:To me it seems like Gadaffi supporters shot him the same way they shot up the Al Jazeera reporter while he was on the way to the trial. This poo poo isn't good, but I'm hoping that the rebels can pull through and that there's enough commanders to replace Younis and continue the push. Either that or the supporters of the other guy were convinced that he was still talking with Ghadaffi and things got out of hand. Earlier in the thread someone quoted Libyan state TV as saying there would be good news w/r/t Younis w/in the week. What if he was planning to sabotage the rebels and defect?
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 06:40 |
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Seems pretty obvious to me it was an internal power struggle. You don't just arrest and execute someone that high up on suspicion of betrayal. And then they flat out lied about what happened. And frankly, the idea that Younis defected to the rebels (probably the highest level defection to the rebels), fought numerous battles with the force he brought over, would subsequently betray everyone is just beyond belief. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 07:02 on Jul 29, 2011 |
# ? Jul 29, 2011 06:55 |
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Concerned Citizen posted:Seems pretty obvious to me it was an internal power struggle. You don't just arrest and execute someone that high up on suspicion of betrayal. And then they flat out lied about what happened. Regardless, this whole situation seems suspicious as gently caress
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 07:18 |
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ThePutty posted:I'm just desperately hoping whatever is up doesn't ruin the entire rebellion and let Gaddafi take back ground. Last thing I want to be reading in 10 years is alternate senarios if General Younis wasn't killed and the Rebels didn't lose. It could be a good thing though. NATO will not let CQ advance on any rebel held areas, and if the rebel's military collapses then this could force negotiations and finally peace. The humanitarian crisis and ending this war asap should be the priority.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 07:29 |
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Mozi posted:Either that or the supporters of the other guy were convinced that he was still talking with Ghadaffi and things got out of hand. This could be an awesome psyops conducted by Gaddafi to divide (and conquer) the rebels.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 07:36 |
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News from Nafusa:quote:Opposition forces are claiming control of the town of Ghazaya near the Tunisian border, according to al-Jazeera's James Bays. [edit]James Bay also just Tweeted Ghazaya and Tekut are both firmly rebel hands. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Jul 29, 2011 |
# ? Jul 29, 2011 10:54 |
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Bit more on Younis:quote:A source close to the NTC told the Guardian that one of Libyan rebel army chief Abdul Fatah Younis's assassins, who has been captured, is currently being interrogated and more information would be forthcoming surrounding the circumstances of Younis's death once it becomes available. He described the situation in Benghazi as "calm" and cast doubt on media reports of violence outside the hotel when Younis's death was announced on Thursday night. The source added that it would be wrong to comment further while an investigation was taking place but said he was "99%" sure that pro-Gaddafi forces were responsible for Younis's death.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 11:22 |
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Brown Moses posted:He described the situation in Benghazi as "calm" and cast doubt on media reports of violence outside the hotel when Younis's death was announced on Thursday night. Very fishy quote:The killing of Younis surprised nobody who's spent time among the rebels. But also shows why Nato countries don't want to arm them.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 12:09 |
Golbez posted:(Then again, didn't we commit solely to air strikes in the former Yugoslavia? That didn't get us far...) Actually, it did a pretty okay number on Serbia's ability to wage a ground war, and was a big factor in convincing Milosevic that without some sort of peacekeeping agreement NATO was going to pound him into paste and/or destabilize his government. Wouldn't be at all surprised if it was part of the inspiration for this whole current plan, since the Serbian military certainly had much better equipment and training than the KLA.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 13:03 |
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Actually, it did a pretty okay number on Serbia's ability to wage a ground war, and was a big factor in convincing Milosevic that without some sort of peacekeeping agreement NATO was going to pound him into paste and/or destabilize his government. Wouldn't be at all surprised if it was part of the inspiration for this whole current plan, since the Serbian military certainly had much better equipment and training than the KLA. I'm not convinced they actually had a solid plan going into this. I think they went into this expecting more uprisings, and a swift end to the conflict.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 14:09 |
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Brown Moses posted:He said the capture of the Ghazaya could act as a springboard for the opposition to head towards the coast and cut off the coastal route between Tunisa and Tripoli, thereby cutting of a vital supply line for the Gaddafi regime. I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling?
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 14:22 |
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Golbez posted:I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling? Think more along the lines of propoganda. "we captured a lovely little town" doesn't quite have the same ring as "we captured a town which may allow us to cut off supply lines" I don't think CQ is getting any support from Tunisia for the reasons you mentioned.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 15:28 |
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Jut posted:It could be a good thing though. NATO will not let CQ advance on any rebel held areas, and if the rebel's military collapses then this could force negotiations and finally peace. The humanitarian crisis and ending this war asap should be the priority. When Gaddafi sits down to serious negotiations in good faith I will eat some serious crow, by which I mean to say it won't happen. The war will drag on for at least a year or two and the new regime will almost certainly disappoint everyone, but the idea that there's an alternative to forcibly deposing Gaddafi won't have much credibility before his attitude changes drastically, which I am certain will not happen. I agree with your last sentence, though, with the qualification that the biggest humanitarian crisis centers around millions of people being ruled by a mass murderer. Peace must be restored ASAP, by defeating and deposing Gaddafi.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 15:44 |
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Golbez posted:I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling? Supplies reaching Tripoli over the Tunisian border don't necessarily originate in Tunisia. It's just that the only viable, secure overland line of communication with the rest of Africa (and essentially the world) must pass through Tunisia, or at least it was until recently. I don't think Tunisia is blockading Libya at this point in their relations.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 15:53 |
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# ? Mar 28, 2024 20:01 |
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fap fap SPLOOGE posted:When Gaddafi sits down to serious negotiations in good faith I will eat some serious crow, by which I mean to say it won't happen. The humanitarian crisis I'm referring to is shortages in food, medicine, clean water, and millions homeless. Being ruled by a mass murderer doesn't compare. If this war drags on for another year or two then the actions of the international community will have indirectly killed more people due to the above factors, than just leaving it be. I still don't trust the NTC to run the country, nor do I want CQ in full power. An ideal solution would be for a ceasefire to be called, UN peacekeepers deployed, and a power-sharing agreement put in place. It's worrying that the only goal to come from NATO is for CQ to be overthrown. Why are we not seeing a Kosovo style deal from the international community? NATO didn't overthrow Milošević, Serbia took care of that in-house a year later.
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# ? Jul 29, 2011 16:00 |