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pylb
Sep 22, 2010

"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"

Golbez posted:

And that's maybe the genius of committing solely to air strikes - can't really up against troops that aren't there. The only troops they'll see are their countrymen, who curiously don't look like the crusaders.

(Then again, didn't we commit solely to air strikes in the former Yugoslavia? That didn't get us far...)

That may be why the rate of defections on the front lines seems high. But if Gaddafi can withstand a siege of Tripoli and the rebels don't make any significant gains, civilians will stay clueless about who they are fighting against.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

There's an NTC press conference starting about Major Younis, could be pretty huge news, and not good news either.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

J33uk posted:

The trouble with this is that everyone was saying the same thing in April. There are certainly reports that at night Tripoli gets a little more rebellious, but again, we've been hearing that since April as well. One of the reasons this thread isn't getting a huge amount of posts for an ongoing international effort to support a rebellion is that the news is effectively the same every day. Brown Moses does a hell of a great job of keeping us up to date, but the pattern is the same every week. The Rebels have great big offensive that's going to start the end game, they capture a few villages, get repulsed and eventually grind their way to the target they're actually aiming for over the course of a month or so. The process then starts again. Oh and NATO loving hates any storage building in Waddan.
Pretty much this.
I think the rebels are starting to run out of time with regards to international support too. The UK have locked themselves in regardless but with the EU crisis, massive austerity measures, no clear end in sight and a humanitarian crisis that's only going to get worse, people will be reconsidering their views on this.
The next vote from NATO on extending operations will be interesting.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's the details coming from the press conference:

quote:

AbdulJalil head of NTC: We are sorry to announce the death of Gen. Younis and two of his friends Col. Khamis and Major Maqdoor
Gaddafi's state TV channels mentioned our general Abdulfatah Younis by name over the last week. They said that "listeners will hear good news about AFY" and today he was shot by a group of gunmen.
This happened after the General was called by the NTC to a meeting to discuss the situation in Brega. General abdulfatah younis did not make the meeting and the gunman is under custody right now.
We declare:
1) A period of 3 days to honor Mr Abdelfatah younis
2) That everyone behind the assassination will be caught
3) That this is the last warning for all armed groups still operating in Benghazi trying to cause problems for revolution
Anyone that fires a single shot from his weapons in free areas will be arrested and reprimanded. I hereby give my heartfelt condolences to Mr Younis' family and the Obeidat (his extended family).

Finlander
Feb 21, 2011

Brown Moses posted:

Here's the details coming from the press conference:

Hmm.
I wonder if this actually happened, or if this is just propaganda. If he really was causing problems for the NTC, they could've easily killed him and blamed it on Gaddafi to avoid problems.
On the other hand, though, if the people and the world ever found out, it would be an absolutely massive stepback for the NTC, so I dunno if they would be willing to take that sort of risk.

I can see him getting shot by some gunmen, though, since Gaddafi's soldiers probably really hated Mr. Younis and all that. I wonder what this will cause in the long term.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Interesting tweets relating to it from Brian Conley, who works for Alive in Libya:

quote:

just heard strange story from #libya friend who's father was w/ #younis on frontlines 4am 50 cars arrived and #younis disappeared w them
Strange #TNC #Jalil states #younis is dead but no body, colleague tells me #younis disappeared from #frontline at 4am this morning
so here is the full version: at 4am few dozen cars arrived at the front where #younis was staying, to arrest him and take him to #benghazi
later some of #younis men went to speak with the #NTC #jalil etc about what happened, #NTC claims they did not send anyone to arrest #younis
now #jalil states #younis is dead, though he has no body so no way to confirm, many questions remain for #NTC but will they answer
Still trying to confirm the accuracy of the #fullyounis account but source was at front and his father was stationed with #younis at time
also #fullyounis account connects ALL #benghazi rumors in one reasonable claim about #younis situation #libya
It sounds a bit fishy to me.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Jul 28, 2011

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
Sounds like an assassination and whitewash at first blush, but I'm willing to wait and see what information comes out over the next few days.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

poo poo gets murkier, via @alihashem_AJA of Al Jazeera:

quote:

Loyalists to late gen younes told me that abduljaleel's version of the death isn't accurate
Loyalists told me gen younes was executed by a group of rebels while facing the committee
There's gunfire reported outside of the building in Benghazi where they just gave the press conference.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Brown Moses posted:

poo poo gets murkier, via @alihashem_AJA of Al Jazeera:

There's gunfire reported outside of the building in Benghazi where they just gave the press conference.

Great, have they just shafted the whole thing?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Younis had a lot of very loyal soldiers who could be very pissed off about what has happened, it could lead to them attacking the NTC directly. This could be a disaster.

Finlander
Feb 21, 2011
So, it looks like the NTC has gone off the deep end and hosed themselves over completely.
Now they'll have to fight with Younis's soldiers AND have to explain this to NATO.
There's no way I can see this ending well.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It won't effect Misrata and Nafusa, but it seems it's already stopped the advance on Brega, Richard Colbourn of the BBC tweeted this:

quote:

How might death of Younis change the conflict? Rebels in #Misrata have heard that fighters supportive of Younis pulled back to Benghazi from around Brega. But #Misrata rebels say there are no Younis suporters this far west and so don't expect impact on Zlitan push.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Brown Moses posted:

Younis had a lot of very loyal soldiers who could be very pissed off about what has happened, it could lead to them attacking the NTC directly. This could be a disaster.

Why would they do something as stupid as killing the head of their military forces just when they were finally putting together a credible offensive AND getting major diplomatic recognition? It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Rumour is the other major leader of the military in the NTC suspected Younis was playing both sides. At the moment it's all rumours, but they could be the sort of rumours that start up riots in Benghazi.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Brown Moses posted:

It won't effect Misrata and Nafusa, but it seems it's already stopped the advance on Brega, Richard Colbourn of the BBC tweeted this:

So... it's possible we might get a splintering? Tripoli, the Benghazi area fighting between the NTC and Younis-loyal forces, and a third, Misrata-based rebel government without the Younis issues?

Is Misrata's government officially loyal to the NTC anyway, or is it simply a matter of sharing the same enemy?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

There's direct support to the Misrata rebels from the NTC, and communication between the two, but really the NTC doesn't have much influence outside of Benghazi. Evan Hill of AJE also made a good point:

quote:

The fact that rebels have arrested one of the killers yet don't have Younis's body is the most troublesome immediate aspect of this.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Brown Moses posted:

quote: "The fact that rebels have arrested one of the killers yet don't have Younis's body is the most troublesome immediate aspect of this."
I'm dense; why?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The NTC story is he was shot by a group of gunmen, one of which they captured, yet they don't even have his body. It just sounds weird.

Seizure Meat
Jul 23, 2008

by Smythe
Just a random thought. I'm kind of an amateur military historian, and one thing above all is striking me as odd. This entire conflict, almost every facet of it, is being fought conventionally. Sure no one is using uniforms, really, but everything else is straight WWII era Western influenced fighting. There's no carbombings, no suicide attackers, only the expected pro-CQ round-ups and maybe assassinations. Basically everything that was the hallmark of an armed independence conflict in the 20th century. It's set piece battles, with a more or less clear front, using conventional strategy.

I hope it stays that way, because Libyan civilians caught in the middle really don't need the added horror of asymmetric warfare.

J33uk
Oct 24, 2005
Just imagine being a rebel supporting person in Tripoli right now... "Hey those guys coming to liberate us all? Turns out they don't all get along". This looks absolutely terrible, let's hope things calm down and something good comes out of this.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Brown Moses posted:

Rumour is the other major leader of the military in the NTC suspected Younis was playing both sides. At the moment it's all rumours, but they could be the sort of rumours that start up riots in Benghazi.

I'm guessing it was an internal power struggle that ended in a CQ style solution. Considering some members of the NTC operated in CQ's govt, and knew the tactics implemented...well tradition is hard to break.

CQ must be happy as a pig in poo poo over this, especially if the assault on Brega has stopped.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Dima Khatib, of Al Jazeera, is also Tweeting from Benghazi

quote:

My friends .. I am here.. at the Tibesty Hotel in Benghazi where the shootings have been happening in past hour

Just about half an hour ago a group of 20-30 people tried to break into Tibesty Hotel in Benghazi. Lobby was evacuated

at about 11.30pm local time the first shooting happened outside the hotel just after the statement by head of TNC

A colleague of mine was outside. He saw a car full of armed men come by and start shooting .. Glass of a hotel window was broken

Things are calm now. Hotel I am inside the Tibesty Hotel, tweeting :)

There was no explosion !!

It is very tense here.. So many armed people

Hefty Leftist
Jun 26, 2011

"You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."


To me it seems like Gadaffi supporters shot him the same way they shot up the Al Jazeera reporter while he was on the way to the trial. This poo poo isn't good, but I'm hoping that the rebels can pull through and that there's enough commanders to replace Younis and continue the push.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
But where is the body?!? Something smells fishy here.

Hefty Leftist
Jun 26, 2011

"You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."


Jut posted:

But where is the body?!? Something smells fishy here.

I'm just desperately hoping whatever is up doesn't ruin the entire rebellion and let Gaddafi take back ground. Last thing I want to be reading in 10 years is alternate senarios if General Younis wasn't killed and the Rebels didn't lose.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

ThePutty posted:

To me it seems like Gadaffi supporters shot him the same way they shot up the Al Jazeera reporter while he was on the way to the trial. This poo poo isn't good, but I'm hoping that the rebels can pull through and that there's enough commanders to replace Younis and continue the push.

Either that or the supporters of the other guy were convinced that he was still talking with Ghadaffi and things got out of hand.

Earlier in the thread someone quoted Libyan state TV as saying there would be good news w/r/t Younis w/in the week. What if he was planning to sabotage the rebels and defect?

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
Seems pretty obvious to me it was an internal power struggle. You don't just arrest and execute someone that high up on suspicion of betrayal. And then they flat out lied about what happened.

And frankly, the idea that Younis defected to the rebels (probably the highest level defection to the rebels), fought numerous battles with the force he brought over, would subsequently betray everyone is just beyond belief.

Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 07:02 on Jul 29, 2011

Hefty Leftist
Jun 26, 2011

"You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."


Concerned Citizen posted:

Seems pretty obvious to me it was an internal power struggle. You don't just arrest and execute someone that high up on suspicion of betrayal. And then they flat out lied about what happened.

And frankly, the idea that Younis defected to the rebels (probably the highest level defection to the rebels), fought numerous battles with the force he brought over, would subsequently betray everyone is just beyond belief.

Regardless, this whole situation seems suspicious as gently caress

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

ThePutty posted:

I'm just desperately hoping whatever is up doesn't ruin the entire rebellion and let Gaddafi take back ground. Last thing I want to be reading in 10 years is alternate senarios if General Younis wasn't killed and the Rebels didn't lose.

It could be a good thing though. NATO will not let CQ advance on any rebel held areas, and if the rebel's military collapses then this could force negotiations and finally peace. The humanitarian crisis and ending this war asap should be the priority.

pylb
Sep 22, 2010

"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"

Mozi posted:

Either that or the supporters of the other guy were convinced that he was still talking with Ghadaffi and things got out of hand.

Earlier in the thread someone quoted Libyan state TV as saying there would be good news w/r/t Younis w/in the week. What if he was planning to sabotage the rebels and defect?

This could be an awesome psyops conducted by Gaddafi to divide (and conquer) the rebels.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

News from Nafusa:

quote:

Opposition forces are claiming control of the town of Ghazaya near the Tunisian border, according to al-Jazeera's James Bays.

The rebels claimed to have taken Ghazaya, which has been in government hands since the conflict began, on Thursday night but the reports could not be verified initially. Bays explained:

"It's important because that's the place the Gaddafi side have been using to shell the mountains and the area around the Tunisian border."

He said the capture of the Ghazaya could act as a springboard for the opposition to head towards the coast and cut off the coastal route between Tunisa and Tripoli, thereby cutting of a vital supply line for the Gaddafi regime.

A second town in the Nafusa mountains, Al Jawsh, was reportedly captured this week but then rebels were unable to hold it, despite deploying several tanks captured from forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi

[edit]James Bay also just Tweeted Ghazaya and Tekut are both firmly rebel hands.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Jul 29, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Bit more on Younis:

quote:

A source close to the NTC told the Guardian that one of Libyan rebel army chief Abdul Fatah Younis's assassins, who has been captured, is currently being interrogated and more information would be forthcoming surrounding the circumstances of Younis's death once it becomes available. He described the situation in Benghazi as "calm" and cast doubt on media reports of violence outside the hotel when Younis's death was announced on Thursday night. The source added that it would be wrong to comment further while an investigation was taking place but said he was "99%" sure that pro-Gaddafi forces were responsible for Younis's death.

Staying on the same topic, Doug Saunders from Canada's Globe and Mail tweeted:

quote:

The killing of Younis surprised nobody who's spent time among the rebels. But also shows why Nato countries don't want to arm them.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Brown Moses posted:

He described the situation in Benghazi as "calm" and cast doubt on media reports of violence outside the hotel when Younis's death was announced on Thursday night.
Wasn't the violence outside the hotel confirmed by several reporters there?
Very fishy

quote:

The killing of Younis surprised nobody who's spent time among the rebels. But also shows why Nato countries don't want to arm them.
Dear dear, but some NATO countries HAVE been arming the rebels.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010


I've made a huge mistake.

Golbez posted:

(Then again, didn't we commit solely to air strikes in the former Yugoslavia? That didn't get us far...)

Actually, it did a pretty okay number on Serbia's ability to wage a ground war, and was a big factor in convincing Milosevic that without some sort of peacekeeping agreement NATO was going to pound him into paste and/or destabilize his government. Wouldn't be at all surprised if it was part of the inspiration for this whole current plan, since the Serbian military certainly had much better equipment and training than the KLA.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Actually, it did a pretty okay number on Serbia's ability to wage a ground war, and was a big factor in convincing Milosevic that without some sort of peacekeeping agreement NATO was going to pound him into paste and/or destabilize his government. Wouldn't be at all surprised if it was part of the inspiration for this whole current plan, since the Serbian military certainly had much better equipment and training than the KLA.

I'm not convinced they actually had a solid plan going into this. I think they went into this expecting more uprisings, and a swift end to the conflict.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Brown Moses posted:

He said the capture of the Ghazaya could act as a springboard for the opposition to head towards the coast and cut off the coastal route between Tunisa and Tripoli, thereby cutting of a vital supply line for the Gaddafi regime.

I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Golbez posted:

I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling?

Think more along the lines of propoganda. "we captured a lovely little town" doesn't quite have the same ring as "we captured a town which may allow us to cut off supply lines"
I don't think CQ is getting any support from Tunisia for the reasons you mentioned.

the floor is baklava
May 4, 2003

SHAME

Jut posted:

It could be a good thing though. NATO will not let CQ advance on any rebel held areas, and if the rebel's military collapses then this could force negotiations and finally peace. The humanitarian crisis and ending this war asap should be the priority.

When Gaddafi sits down to serious negotiations in good faith I will eat some serious crow, by which I mean to say it won't happen.

The war will drag on for at least a year or two and the new regime will almost certainly disappoint everyone, but the idea that there's an alternative to forcibly deposing Gaddafi won't have much credibility before his attitude changes drastically, which I am certain will not happen.

I agree with your last sentence, though, with the qualification that the biggest humanitarian crisis centers around millions of people being ruled by a mass murderer. Peace must be restored ASAP, by defeating and deposing Gaddafi.

the floor is baklava
May 4, 2003

SHAME

Golbez posted:

I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling?

Supplies reaching Tripoli over the Tunisian border don't necessarily originate in Tunisia. It's just that the only viable, secure overland line of communication with the rest of Africa (and essentially the world) must pass through Tunisia, or at least it was until recently. I don't think Tunisia is blockading Libya at this point in their relations.

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Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

fap fap SPLOOGE posted:

When Gaddafi sits down to serious negotiations in good faith I will eat some serious crow, by which I mean to say it won't happen.

The war will drag on for at least a year or two and the new regime will almost certainly disappoint everyone, but the idea that there's an alternative to forcibly deposing Gaddafi won't have much credibility before his attitude changes drastically, which I am certain will not happen.

I agree with your last sentence, though, with the qualification that the biggest humanitarian crisis centers around millions of people being ruled by a mass murderer. Peace must be restored ASAP, by defeating and deposing Gaddafi.

The humanitarian crisis I'm referring to is shortages in food, medicine, clean water, and millions homeless. Being ruled by a mass murderer doesn't compare.
If this war drags on for another year or two then the actions of the international community will have indirectly killed more people due to the above factors, than just leaving it be.

I still don't trust the NTC to run the country, nor do I want CQ in full power. An ideal solution would be for a ceasefire to be called, UN peacekeepers deployed, and a power-sharing agreement put in place.

It's worrying that the only goal to come from NATO is for CQ to be overthrown. Why are we not seeing a Kosovo style deal from the international community? NATO didn't overthrow Milošević, Serbia took care of that in-house a year later.

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