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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
Members of NATO (well, mostly Turkey, but there have been noises in support of the effort) have repeatedly offered to broker a deal, to which Gaddafi's response was along the lines of "we shall invade Europe for this sacrilege and burn your cities to the ground!"

I think that means no.

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Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Jut posted:

I still don't trust the NTC to run the country, nor do I want CQ in full power. An ideal solution would be for a ceasefire to be called, UN peacekeepers deployed, and a power-sharing agreement put in place.

Has power-sharing ever worked? (I ask out of ignorance, not sarcasm)

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Members of NATO (well, mostly Turkey, but there have been noises in support of the effort) have repeatedly offered to broker a deal, to which Gaddafi's response was along the lines of "we shall invade Europe for this sacrilege and burn your cities to the ground!"

I think that means no.

Really? Last time I checked several offers have been put on the table and the deciding factor was that the rebels won't negotiate unless CQ stands down.

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-24/world/libya.war_1_moammar-gadhafi-libyan-government-arab-league?_s=PM:WORLD posted:

The Libyan opposition said Friday that leader Moammar Gadhafi must leave the country before any peaceful solution can take hold in the north African nation.

"No, this is not a solution," Jalal el-Gallal, a spokesman for the opposition Transitional National Council, said about the prospect of Gadhafi remaining in Libya...

...Libyan government spokesman Musa Ibrahim said he welcomed the prospect of such a peace initiative but not one that required Gadhafi's departure. The Libyan government has repeatedly denied any preconditions for negotiations.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Golbez posted:

Has power-sharing ever worked? (I ask out of ignorance, not sarcasm)

Northern Ireland comes to mind off the top of my head.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
Thing is, Qaddafi expressed no interest whatsoever in negotiating, though you're correct that the rebels were a bit short on enthusiasm for it as well.

It's definitely something still worth pursuing, given that there are plausible sane reasons to not give the offer(s) any credence - notably wanting to put on a show of confidence for his top ministers and officers, who have to be wondering about their own options at this point and might not respond well to perceived weakness.

Burt Sexual
Jan 26, 2006

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Switchblade Switcharoo

Jut posted:

Really? Last time I checked several offers have been put on the table and the deciding factor was that the rebels won't negotiate unless CQ stands down.

Why would you believe anything CQ says after all the past statements that end up being false, misleading, or halve truths. He's not a good faith negotiator and everyone knows it.

neamp
Jun 24, 2003
From what I remember the only real offers for negotiation have come from Saif Gaddafi and his camp, which is irrelevant because he has no actual power without his father's (and the other brother's) consent.
Maybe Moussa Ibrahim talked some crap, but his job as PR guy is to shape world opinion not being factual in any way. Nothing he says at those Rixos press conferences is credible and it's usually not even translated into Arabic or broadcast in Libya itself, it's make believe for gullible foreigners.
The last I heard from the people purportedly speaking for the old man is that NATO needs to stop it's campaign, then there can be negotiations, maybe. Meanwhile Gaddafi himself said on TV that he will never negotiate with the NTC until judgement day, so...

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

There are some disturbing reports coming out of North Sinai right now. Repent11, a tweeter affiliated with CNN, is reporting that the Egyptian army and SOF units are engaged with Islamist militants who have reportedly seized control of the Rafah area. You'll remember Rafah as the area which borders the Gaza Strip. It's unconfirmed right now, but if true, things are about to get really, really ugly in the Sinai.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

The Libyan woman who was dragged away after telling reporters she was gang-raped has found asylum in the U.S.

So that's some good news at least, as the last I heard Qatar kicked her out and sent her right back to Libya.

Hefty Leftist
Jun 26, 2011

"You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."


Away from Libya, apparently Islamists took over the Tahrir protests and the Liberal parties have pulled out from it. Not looking good, it seems.

Ghetto Prince
Sep 11, 2010

got to be mellow, y'all
I think NATO learned their lesson about installing puppet governments and ignoring UN resolutions. Anyway, France and the UK are the ones that stepped up to put a leash on Gadaffi, it's entirely their call.

dodecahardon
Oct 20, 2008

ThePutty posted:

Away from Libya, apparently Islamists took over the Tahrir protests and the Liberal parties have pulled out from it. Not looking good, it seems.

This doesn't bode well for the secularist protesters or the Coptic population, both of which have been victims of violence at the hands of hardline Islamists.

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
The killing of Younis couldn't have come at a worse time for the UK government: just a day after they recognised the rebels as the legitimate government of Libya. The general feeling in the UK is that we shouldn't have gotten involved in the first place and the government itself has struggled to communicate what we're trying to achieve in Libya, beyond the constantly repeated demands for Gadaffi to go. If the people that they've just affirmed as the official representatives of Libya dissolve into warring factions after this killing, the UK public are going to start demanding that we cut our losses and just get out of the whole bloody mess.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yesterday, the NPR radio program "Fresh Air" with Terry Gross was an interview with New York Times correspondent C.J. Chivers, who has been reporting from the ground in Libya and is just back in the US.

I only caught the first half, but it was really interesting. He had some stories about stuff that's gone on in the conflict areas that we haven't heard, and his assessment of the rebels and their chances was interesting (and disheartening).

here's the story and you can download the broadcast as a podcast. There's also a transcript.


e. Also, NPR correspondent Lourdes Garcia-Navarro is in Benghazi. A short interview Steve Inskeep did with her this morning, regarding the Younis killing here.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Jul 29, 2011

New Division
Jun 23, 2004

I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.
Yemen seems to have fallen out of the news, but the violence there is continuing unabated.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-28/yemen-forces-clash-with-tribesmen-at-republican-guard-camp-north-of-sana-a.html

quote:


Yemen Forces Clash With Tribesmen at Republican Guard Camp North of Sana’a
By Mohammed Hatem - Jul 28, 2011 8:37 AM CT


Yemeni military planes carried out strikes on armed tribesmen who seized control of part of a training facility for the country’s elite forces north of the capital, Sana’a.
Dozens of people were killed as soldiers clashed with tribesmen at the al-Samaa camp used by Yemen’s Republican Guard forces, Yahia al-Shabi, a local resident, said in a telephone interview today.
The government accused the opposition Al-Islah party of involvement in the tribal raid on the camp, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Sana’a, said Abdu al-Janadi, Yemen’s deputy information minister, at a press conference today. He didn’t cite a death toll. The Defense Ministry said on its website that the army suffered “heavy losses” and that the attackers also sought to gain control of Sana’a international airport.
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government is trying to quell demonstrations against his rule that began in January. The president, who is recovering in neighboring Saudi Arabia from injuries sustained in an attack on his compound, also faces tribal revolts, secessionist movements and al-Qaeda militants. His son Ahmed, who was once expected to be Saleh’s successor, is head of the Republican Guard.
The U.S., Gulf Arab nations and Yemeni opposition groups have called on Saleh to transfer power to Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansur Hadi.
Six months of unrest have cost the country’s businesses more than $17 billion, and forced 500 factories to close, al- Janadi said. He warned that the government “may reach a point at which it will be unable to pay the salaries of employees.”
In the southern city of Taiz, one soldier was killed and another wounded in clashes between security forces and gunmen, said Nashwan al-Ariki, a witness. In Hadramaut province, one protester was killed and three others wounded when police fired on crowds demonstrating over shortages of fuel and the collapse of social services, Naser Ba-Qazquz, an opposition leader, said in a telephone interview.
To contact the reporters on this story: Mohammed Hatem in Sana’a, Yemen, at mhatem1@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Louis Meixler at lmeixler@bloomberg.net.

Yemen's already terrible economy is on the verge of complete disintegration due to this conflict.

Also, some of Younis's former troopers seem convinced that a faction of the rebel government had him killed.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/07/29/501364/main20085508.shtml

quote:


(CBS/AP) BENGHAZI, Libya - A special forces member under the command of the Libyan rebels' slain military chief has accused a rebel faction in the killing.
Mohammed Agoury told The Associated Press on Friday that he was present when a group of rebels from a faction known as the February 17 Martyrs' Brigade came to Abdel-Fattah Younis' operations room and took him away with them for interrogation.

Agoury accused the group of killing Younis and dumping his body outside Benghazi.

The accusation could mark a split among the rebel movement that controls eastern Libya and has been locked in a military stalemate with forces of Muammar Qaddafi.

Thousands of mourners marched in the funeral procession Friday for Younis.

Attending his funeral, his nephew Hisham al-Obaidi told The Associated Press that the attackers shot Younis, then slit his throat, set fire to his body and dumped it outside Benghazi.

The death spread fear and confusion in Benghazi, where heavy gunfire crackled in the early hours Friday. Residents worried about the possibility it could undermine the rebels' military forces, leaving the opposition-held east vulnerable to attack by Qaddafi's forces.

The head of the rebel National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, blamed "gunmen" and said one man had been arrested, but Abdul-Jalil did not say what he believed motivated the killers.

Abdul-Jalil said Younis had been "summoned" to Benghazi for questioning on a "military matter" and was killed along with two aides while on route. But hours before the commander's death was announced, rebel military spokesman Mohammed al-Rijali had said Younis was taken to Benghazi for "interrogation" on suspicion his family might still have ties to Qaddafi regime, raising questions about whether he might have been assassinated by his own side.

Younis was Qaddafi's interior minister before defecting to the rebels early in the uprising, which began in February. His abandoning of the Libyan leader raised Western hopes that the growing opposition could succeed in forcing out the country's ruler of more than four decades.

Rebel forces, however, held mixed views of the man, with some praising him for defecting and others suspicious of him because of his long association with Qaddafi.

Hundreds of mourners marched behind Younis' coffin, draped with the rebel tricolor flag, as it was carried to Benghazi's cemetery. "Martyrs are God's beloved," the crowd chanted.

At the funeral service, another nephew Mohammad al-Obaidi, called his uncle a martyr and a champion of the uprising against Qaddafi.

Troubles among the rebels — at a time when their forces have failed to make battlefield gains despite nearly four months of NATO airstrikes against Gahdafi's forces — could shake the confidence of the United States, Britain and several dozen other nations that have recognized the rebel council as Libya's legitimate leaders.

The British minister for the Middle East and North Africa, Alistair Burt, said Friday he spoke with the council chief, Abdul-Jalil and welcomed the rebels' announcement of an investigation.

"Exactly what happened remains unclear," Burt said in a statement. "We agreed that it is important that those responsible are held to account through proper judicial processes."

French military spokesman Col. Thierry Burkhard said there was no immediate change in the NATO strategy in the wake of Younis' death and suggested there would not be. He said the NATO campaign was based on a U.N. mandate "and it does not let individual people feature in the game."

But the French street had a more sobering view.

"The Worrying Fragility of the Libyan Opposition" reads the front-page editorial in Friday afternoon's Le Monde, warning that the death "augurs ill for the future."

"We didn't know much about him, except that he was the military chief of the Libyan rebellion. That he was one of the rare ones to have had the experience of power, who had authority, basically that he seemed to be one of those we could count on post-Gadhafi," the editorial read.

It said the council's version of events "is hardly reassuring," and that gives reason "to doubt the capacity of the council to exercise power."

"The French involvement makes us accountable, at least partially, for the behavior of the Council. And implicates us in the future of Libya," it ended.

The whole situation is pretty dire. I would not be surprised if Younis's former troops refuse to fight now.

New Division fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Jul 29, 2011

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
Situation in Arish is escalating, a captain in the Egyptian Army was killed with several soldiers and another officer severely wounded. Several civilians dead (rumored to be around 8 killed right now) with tens more injured, army engaged in battle with militants.

Eyewitness report (MIGHT NOT BE ACCURATE):

150 cars and trucks manned by militant Islamists from the Takfir and Hijra group entered Arish city around 1:30 - 2:00 PM after Jumaa prayers, destroying a statue of former president Anwar Al-Sadat and proceeding to wreak havoc around the city, and attacking a major police station. They barred people from leaving their houses, confiscated cellphones and cameras and took over the city.

They attacked the police station with RPGs, SPGs and automatic weapons. The military barrack in Arish reinforced the police station with several APCs and helicopters, with reinforcements coming from Rafah city (where another attack likely happened, no info)

Battle is still on-going in Arish, the islamic militants number in the hundreds - possibly thousands.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Ham posted:

Situation in Arish is escalating, a captain in the Egyptian Army was killed with several soldiers and another officer severely wounded. Several civilians dead (rumored to be around 8 killed right now) with tens more injured, army engaged in battle with militants.

Eyewitness report (MIGHT NOT BE ACCURATE):

150 cars and trucks manned by militant Islamists from the Takfir and Hijra group entered Arish city around 1:30 - 2:00 PM after Jumaa prayers, destroying a statue of former president Anwar Al-Sadat and proceeding to wreak havoc around the city, and attacking a major police station. They barred people from leaving their houses, confiscated cellphones and cameras and took over the city.

They attacked the police station with RPGs, SPGs and automatic weapons. The military barrack in Arish reinforced the police station with several APCs and helicopters, with reinforcements coming from Rafah city (where another attack likely happened, no info)

Battle is still on-going in Arish, the islamic militants number in the hundreds - possibly thousands.

Where are you getting this from? I've been monitoring Twitter and there's only been one guy (repent11) who's been reporting on the attacks. Conflicting reports abound- I've been hearing there's another attack going on, and I also heard that Egyptian SOF (Unit 777) had repulsed the attack. Anything credible you can confirm would be good...

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

suboptimal posted:

Where are you getting this from? I've been monitoring Twitter and there's only been one guy (repent11) who's been reporting on the attacks. Conflicting reports abound- I've been hearing there's another attack going on, and I also heard that Egyptian SOF (Unit 777) had repulsed the attack. Anything credible you can confirm would be good...

A neighbor of mine is in Arish right now. Most online sources are very slow for a lack of verifiable info out of that area. Trying to contact a relative of mine in the SF right now.

If you understand Arabic, watch JSC Mubasher Misr on Nilesat.

Sivias
Dec 12, 2006

I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.
Ham, news in the states around the debt ceiling (oh god), not to mention all the other stories going around, have made it difficult to get information on Egypt right now. My only source is you and AJE, and a quick mention on NPR.
What's going on in Tahrir right now? Is it really mostly filled by Islamic representatives? Does this have any connection to what's happening in the place you were speaking of?

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
Tahrir square was full of islamists throughout the day till 6 PM. They were calling for the same things as the non-islamist protestors except that they were calling for completely implementation of islamic sharia within the constitution and in fact some called for implementing the quran itself as the constitution. They were also very anti-secular. It's unknown if any of the islamist groups are tied to the event in the Sinai.

Right now the square holds the non-islamist protestors who have been sitting in for the past 3-4 weeks.

Update on situation in Sinai: Militants are confirmed to be islamists belonging to the Takfir wal-Hijra group. They are well-trained and armed and the battle is still on-going in Arish with the army sending reinforcements from the border-town of Rafah and 2nd Army Field HQ in Ismailiya and they've surrounded the militants in a specific part of Arish, hoping that they're going to eventually run out of ammo. So far 2 civilians confirmed dead, a 70-year old man and a 13-year old boy. As far as the police and military, there's several casualties and one army officer confirmed killed, a captain. Tens of civilians and soldiers wounded, with 10 more unconfirmed deaths.

Ham fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Jul 29, 2011

Ace Oliveira
Dec 27, 2009

"I wonder if there is beer on the sun."
Ham, could the attacks in Sinai be related to the islamic extremists protesting in Tahrir square? From what I've heard they weren't there before.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Ace Oliveira posted:

Ham, could the attacks in Sinai be related to the islamic extremists protesting in Tahrir square? From what I've heard they weren't there before.

The ones in Tahrir square are not necessarily extremists and it's far too early to label them that right now. They're islamists yea, but not to the point of killing/terrorism. And the attacks in Sinai are done by a completely different islamic group, probably the most extremist islamic group in Egypt. They have ties to some Palestinian factions, but as far as I know they have no real modern association with the Salafis or the Muslim Brotherhood.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
Videos from Arish:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYqDMjaAiTI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZLI4sfp-b8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQdQA2APsdo

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Ham posted:

The ones in Tahrir square are not necessarily extremists and it's far too early to label them that right now. They're islamists yea, but not to the point of killing/terrorism. And the attacks in Sinai are done by a completely different islamic group, probably the most extremist islamic group in Egypt. They have ties to some Palestinian factions, but as far as I know they have no real modern association with the Salafis or the Muslim Brotherhood.

Do you think that this could lead to a backlash against the Islamists amongst the general population, Ham?

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

How are u posted:

Do you think that this could lead to a backlash against the Islamists amongst the general population, Ham?

For politically active people: Yes and no, people will definitely be making a clear association between the Islamists protesting all over Egypt today and the events in Northern Sinai, and some non-islamist political factions will probably make use of this in both short and long-term propaganda, however I think most people have already decided on which side of the fence they fall and this will only reinforce their beliefs - islamists will denounce this as the kind of thing that can be avoided if only for the non-islamist revolutionaries' constant protests and demands (delay elections etc.) while non-islamists will treat it as Egypt's future if the islamists come to power. In the end, it only widens the gap between both branches of Egyptian politics.

Regarding the general population, there's no real gauge, we don't have accurate or timely polling systems to find out but I believe reaction in general is gonna be negative because the protests also coincided with the burning of a church in Minya governorate as well as the attacks in Arish. The death of the army captain won't hep either.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Leperflesh posted:

Yesterday, the NPR radio program "Fresh Air" with Terry Gross was an interview with New York Times correspondent C.J. Chivers, who has been reporting from the ground in Libya and is just back in the US.

I only caught the first half, but it was really interesting. He had some stories about stuff that's gone on in the conflict areas that we haven't heard, and his assessment of the rebels and their chances was interesting (and disheartening).

here's the story and you can download the broadcast as a podcast. There's also a transcript.


e. Also, NPR correspondent Lourdes Garcia-Navarro is in Benghazi. A short interview Steve Inskeep did with her this morning, regarding the Younis killing here.

Interesting account from Chivers. 14 min is pretty revealing of fractures in the rebel forces.

Second link has more news on Brega. In short, CQ is entrenched, rebels not making much progress, and rumours that Younis is being blamed for not taking Brega.

Jut fucked around with this message at 08:27 on Jul 30, 2011

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
The BBC are reporting that tanks have been sent into Hama, and are firing away.

Kenning
Jan 11, 2009

I really want to post goatse. Instead I only have these🍄.



loving poo poo.

SixFigureSandwich
Oct 30, 2004
Exciting Lemon
45 reported killed, wouldn't surprise me if this number rises :(

Chortles
Dec 29, 2008

Jut posted:

The BBC are reporting that tanks have been sent into Hama, and are firing away.
I wonder where the US ambassador is? (It's not just "but what about the Syrians," his presence or absence in Hama still would be... insightful to say the least about the extent of the regime's intent.)

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Chortles posted:

I wonder where the US ambassador is? (It's not just "but what about the Syrians," his presence or absence in Hama still would be... insightful to say the least about the extent of the regime's intent.)

I think he left the area a while ago.
This situation has been brewing for a while, it's not a flash crackdown like in Libya; yet the international community has ignored this just as they did with Bahrain.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Jut posted:

The BBC are reporting that tanks have been sent into Hama, and are firing away.

Not just Hama, it's a clear attempt by the government to end it all at once.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Going to be interesting to see how Turkey responds to this.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Jut posted:

I think he left the area a while ago.
This situation has been brewing for a while, it's not a flash crackdown like in Libya; yet the international community has ignored this just as they did with Bahrain.

I remember there being condemnations, but a no-fly zone would be far less useful in Syria, wouldn't it? What could the international community do that it hasn't already?

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
Short of another military intervention, there's just about nothing that can be done with Syria that will make a difference on the ground. I'd expect an ICC referral or maybe sanctions of Bashar al-Assad over this (as opposed to just his associates) if Russia/China can be convinced, but that wouldn't change much.

edit: And a military intervention, which there isn't much stomach for anyways, would be extremely more complex in the case of Syria than Libya because of its neighbors.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Golbez posted:

I remember there being condemnations, but a no-fly zone would be far less useful in Syria, wouldn't it? What could the international community do that it hasn't already?

Let's be honest...Libya was originally supposed to be a NFZ, but on paper ended up being so much more.
We've not even seen the bare minimum from the UNSC (i.e. condemnations, sanctions, referral to the ICC etc...) they've given Syria the Bahrain treatment.

Gazpacho
Jun 18, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Slippery Tilde

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Members of NATO (well, mostly Turkey, but there have been noises in support of the effort) have repeatedly offered to broker a deal, to which Gaddafi's response was along the lines of "we shall invade Europe for this sacrilege and burn your cities to the ground!"
Gaddafi did not say that in response to any settlement proposal from Europe, though he said something vaguely resembling it in response to the bombs continuing to fall on Libya.

As far as I know, the only specific proposals from Europe involve facilitating Gaddafi's departure which, surprisingly enough, he has no interest in.

Gazpacho fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Jul 31, 2011

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
^^^
Don't confuse the poor man with things like facts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14360027 posted:

Germany, currently a UN Security Council member, has requested emergency discussions in New York on Monday.

ABOUT loving TIME! This poo poo has only been brewing in Syria for the last couple of months.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
I wonder how Brazil and India will react this time. Interesting that Germany, who abstained on the Libya vote, is calling for this, instead of France or the UK.

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Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Xandu posted:

I wonder how Brazil and India will react this time. Interesting that Germany, who abstained on the Libya vote, is calling for this, instead of France or the UK.
Well there is a difference between calling a meeting and calling for military action.

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