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Here's the latest report from AJE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LowbsX-gdM
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Aug 21, 2011 12:49
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Brown Moses posted:Here's a AJE report on the Tripoli Brigade, which is currently on the way to Tripoli based on various report: Hey, these guys got proper uniforms! Really, that's always a good sign. That indicates a level of organization and discipline beyond irregular guerrillas - there's a reason the Geneva Convention offers special protection to uniformed soldiers.
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Aug 21, 2011 12:51
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Stroh M.D. posted:In Egypt, protesters are crazy. According to the AJE reporter they "want to see the ambassador expelled, all ties between Israel and Egypt cut and reconsideration of the 1969 peace treaty". Being that the Egyptian military is so heavily tied to America I Can't see how the protesters will get their way as Egypt's army practically survives on the Americans and most officers have had direct American training. It would take a complete reorder of the military before a war could happen between Egypt and Israel and that reorder would mean the egyptian military would be incredibly weakened and not up to fighting Israel, making it another 1969. And is it me or does the tripoli brigade seem to have quite fluent english speakers in it? to the point of atleast recruiting libyan expats. griffia fucked around with this message at 12:59 on Aug 21, 2011 |
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Aug 21, 2011 12:55
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Brown Moses posted:Here's a AJE report on the Tripoli Brigade, which is currently on the way to Tripoli based on various report: Don't mean to state the obvious, but the video shows like 30 guys, without weapons, doing silly drills. That video is from early June, so hopefully things are a bit better....
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Aug 21, 2011 12:59
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griffia posted:Being that the Egyptian military is so heavily tied to America I Can't see how the protesters will get their way as Egypt's army practically survives on the Americans and most officers have had direct American training. It would take a complete reorder of the military before a war could happen between Egypt and Israel and that reorder would mean the egyptian military would be incredibly weakened and not up to fighting Israel, making it another 1969. According to Wiki the Egyptian budget is $5,85B a year of which US military aid is $1,3B. Israels budget is a full $16B. Without US aid, Israel outspends Egypt more than 3 to 1. Than there's the matter of Egypt fielding large amounts of NATO equipment - such as F-16s - which could be difficult to supply and maintain under an embargo. Yeah, the hardliners aren't getting their wishes fulfilled unless the military leadership loses their heads completely. A war with Israel would by all counts be a disaster and possibly even a curb stomp.
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Aug 21, 2011 13:01
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Zeina Khodr is tweeting from the frontline west of Tripoli:quote:Opposition forces reach #Almaya and are battling #Gaddafi forces at 27 bridge, Matthew Price also pointed out something interesting: quote:Interesting words: Info Min: A "significant number" (of #Libyan s) come out in support of the leader/This gvnt has support/"Many" want it
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Aug 21, 2011 13:03
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Stroh M.D. posted:According to Wiki the Egyptian budget is $5,85B a year of which US military aid is $1,3B. Israels budget is a full $16B. Without US aid, Israel outspends Egypt more than 3 to 1. Yeah Egypt would get it's rear end kicked no matter what, however at the moment Egypts military could atleast hold out for a while and offer large resistance with good planning and strategy, which it could possibly provide with the leadership it has at the moment. If the government that comes into power does what Turkey has and cull a large amount of military leadership. what would be left would be a husk of its former self, it might have comparable (albeit still inferior) equipment, but as shown with previous Israeli conflicts even armies with superior equipment have extreme difficulty against Israel. And that difficulty is ussually down to extremely inferior training. griffia fucked around with this message at 13:15 on Aug 21, 2011 |
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Aug 21, 2011 13:12
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Missy Ryan just tweeted, explaining about the lack of updates from the Rixos.quote:Internet down so updates will be less frequent for the moment. It's quieter today but we still hear explosions in distance.
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Aug 21, 2011 13:13
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Alex Crawford coming under fire while reporting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OItnz76-88M
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Aug 21, 2011 13:30
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I love pro-Gaddafi twitter accounts:quote:Tripoli situation. everything calm. some burned tyres from come rebel cells. nothing more. everything is under control.
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Aug 21, 2011 13:39
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This hash tag made me laughquote:Rumour that Fox news are already on a ship to Tripoli. #Journowackyraces quote:A Maltese-registered ship heading into Tripoli's port to evacuate foreign nationals came under fire and was forced to return to the open sea, AFP has reported. The information came from Poland's foreign ministry. A Polish family were among those awaiting evacuation on the vessel, as well as up to nine UK nationals.
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Aug 21, 2011 13:55
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Stroh M.D. posted:In Egypt, protesters are crazy. According to the AJE reporter they "want to see the ambassador expelled, all ties between Israel and Egypt cut and reconsideration of the 1969 peace treaty". Almost all Egyptians believe they won the Yom Kippur war decisively, and tend to have a very idealized perception of their military's capabilities. As you can imagine, that doesn't help keep a lid on things.
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Aug 21, 2011 14:09
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Today's NATO reportquote:Sorties conducted 20 AUGUST: 105
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Aug 21, 2011 14:09
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pylb posted:I like this entry from the blog : I like this part better: quote:
There is not an  big enough.
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Aug 21, 2011 14:22
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Brown Moses posted:Today's NATO report The Libyan army entered the civil war with 1,500 tanks, another 1,500 APCs and IFVs and 2,500 artillery pieces. One wonders how many are left with that level of strikes every single day for a good six months now. If anything, that NATO has been able to strike with such intensity and not suffering a single casualty proves just how far military technology has advanced from the Cold War era equipment Gadaffi fields. His army was good at keeping the people on their knees, but against a modernized foe they are essentially helpless. Stroh M.D. fucked around with this message at 14:29 on Aug 21, 2011 |
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Aug 21, 2011 14:26
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Well that broke open a hell of a lot faster than I anticipated, although the internal uprising in Tripoli is something I knew was possible/likely fro the start the sudden collapse of Gaddafi's forces in the area really kicked things off. It looks to me like they waited too long to evacuate the foreign nationals, which is pretty unsurprising since they almost always do. With the city an active combat zone trying to do so now would be counter-indicated as the There's this note from the Guardian liveblog I want to talk about. 12.17pm: Ibrahim warns that the rebels will not find it easy to sweep into Tripoli: "Tripoli is well protected and we have thousands upon thousands of professional soldiers who are ready to protect this city from any invasion." Many of these troops have families and homes in the city and fear what could happen if the rebels take over, meaning "they may as well fight until the end", he adds Despite coming from Ibrahim, this is a serious issue. Just as many of the rebels were fighting to protect their families, surely the same applies to soldiers. What is problematic for this line of thinking is the the 5th column of rebels within Tripoli are already such a threat. The disintegration of an organized defense as individual soldiers try and protect their families pretty much destroys whatever chance you have of holding out. Morale issues at the moment are fairly key, but it's an pen question as to if a pause would allow soldiers to consider the impossibility of their current situation and give up or to reorganize with what is still a hell of a lot of firepower. Personally I generally favor keeping on the pressure but either way it's a very dangerous situation.
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Aug 21, 2011 14:37
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There's now reports of rebel troops using boats to land in Tripoli from Misrata, which would make sense.
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Aug 21, 2011 14:58
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Brown Moses posted:There's now reports of rebel troops using boats to land in Tripoli from Misrata, which would make sense. Does it? I mean maybe to bypass the front line and end up in the outskirts, but the idea of rolling into a hostile port in a 15 foot fishing vessel and piling out is pretty crazy to me.
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Aug 21, 2011 15:00
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I would expect the rebels have been preparing for an attack on Tripoli for quite some time, no doubt co-ordinating directly with NATO, as there's strong evidence to suggest NATO have advisers helping out the current rebel advance already. I could easily imagine boats covered by NATO warships sneaking into Tripoli with heavier weaponery to assist the uprising. More from outside of Tripoli quote:I've been speaking again with the Guardian's Luke Harding, who has moved from the front line south of Tripoli (see 10.50am) to that just west of the capital, getting close enough to see the city's main power station "shimmering in the distance".
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Aug 21, 2011 15:06
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Stroh M.D. posted:In Egypt, protesters are crazy. According to the AJE reporter they "want to see the ambassador expelled, all ties between Israel and Egypt cut and reconsideration of the 1969 peace treaty". It would be a horrible disaster for everyone involved, but it looks like cooler heads are prevailing at the top levels of both governments.
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Aug 21, 2011 15:09
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farraday posted:Does it? I mean maybe to bypass the front line and end up in the outskirts, but the idea of rolling into a hostile port in a 15 foot fishing vessel and piling out is pretty crazy to me. Well there was the earlier report of boats being shot at, maybe the rebels have pushed to secure an area where boats can come and go?
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Aug 21, 2011 15:13
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Brown Moses posted:I would expect the rebels have been preparing for an attack on Tripoli for quite some time, no doubt co-ordinating directly with NATO, as there's strong evidence to suggest NATO have advisers helping out the current rebel advance already. I could easily imagine boats covered by NATO warships sneaking into Tripoli with heavier weaponery to assist the uprising. I still don't really see it. Landing from a boat anywhere but a dock is a nightmare, landing at a dock under hostile control is a nightmare. Landing at a dock to unload heavy equipment only even begins to make sense if that dock is already under control of your side. Are any of the neighborhoods said to be under rebel control on the seafront? besides that if you're looking at the same twitter report I am it says 5 boats... that just isn't enough people, and the bigger the boat the harder it would be to land people from it which means you have a serious amount of diminishing returns. If this were some planned maneuver I'd expect they'd have more smaller boats to transfer a bunch of people to shore quickly.
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Aug 21, 2011 15:16
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Stroh M.D. posted:The Libyan army entered the civil war with 1,500 tanks, another 1,500 APCs and IFVs and 2,500 artillery pieces. One wonders how many are left with that level of strikes every single day for a good six months now. I doubt that the losses of AFV's to airstrikes have been VERY high. Libyan army is highly mechanized on paper, but then it is estimated that when the conflict started most of their tanks were too old and poorly maintained for combat operations. Plus to field 1500 tanks you'd need at least 4500 trained crewmen, and again this might be something that the Libyan army didn't possess. Only a couple of hundred of the tanks were T-72's and those may have seen more use and therefore also greater losses. Nevertheless, the new Libya will be militarily very weak for years or decades to come. Their airforce will consist of a couple of Mirage fighters on Malta and maybe some rusty MiG's hidden in underground hangars (or buried in sand like in Iraq). Their air defense system requires a complete overhaul, from radars and communications to missile sites. Just about anything they will inherit is either damaged, in bad shape or terribly outdated. And on top of that it is entirely possible that there will be regional factions, possessing heavy weaponry, who will not outright accept the new government and their appointed civil officials either, so the new defense/security forces may face huge challenges right away. Maybe not an actual civil war, but even basic law enforcement can become dangerous when just about anyone might have an AK-47 and RPG-7 in their closet. Plus all the mines and UXO (on top of those still remaining from WW2) that will need to be cleared... Of course this is great news for defense contractors! 
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Aug 21, 2011 15:21
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With the level of chaos in Tripoli and the surrounding areas at the moment, I find it hard to imagine the rebels won't find at least one safe place to disembark.
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Aug 21, 2011 15:21
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Stroh M.D. posted:The Libyan army entered the civil war with 1,500 tanks, another 1,500 APCs and IFVs and 2,500 artillery pieces. One wonders how many are left with that level of strikes every single day for a good six months now. If anything, that NATO has been able to strike with such intensity and not suffering a single casualty proves just how far military technology has advanced from the Cold War era equipment Gadaffi fields. Not that many tanks or APCs have been hit, maybe 1/3 or so of those numbers if we count every reported hit as a "kill". Then there's a bunch that have been seized by the rebels so... what remains is probably in a pretty shoddy state though. As for Egypt's military: Maybe they think their Abrams will give them some of that american war mojo?  Actually, I wouldn't underestimate the Egyptian army. It's not the 1960ies anymore. Those 1150+ M1A2 SEP Standard MBT's with American trained crews can probably go toe-to-toe with the Israelis on the ground. The air war is another matter, but the Egyptians do have the Patriot missile batteries too (even if the Israelis got the specs on those they'd have to be drat careful). I wouldn't put it past them to put up a competent fight for a couple of weeks/months until another cease-fire and peace accord is signed (whatever either side's hardliners might think of their chances for total victory).
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Aug 21, 2011 15:28
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Dreissi posted:With the level of chaos in Tripoli and the surrounding areas at the moment, I find it hard to imagine the rebels won't find at least one safe place to disembark. If you're launching boats full of equipment and fighters you have to have some kind of pre-planned landing zone in mind so that everyone knows where they are and what to do when they get there. That's doubly important if you're using non-combat boats in a combat situation. That means that the rebels inside the city had coordinated with 5th column rebels beforehand to have a secure landing point for their boats. I'm really very impressed with what the rebels have accomplished so far in the Tripoli operation. This a real step-up in competence and coordination for them.
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Aug 21, 2011 15:34
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farraday posted:I still don't really see it. Landing from a boat anywhere but a dock is a nightmare, landing at a dock under hostile control is a nightmare. It's very difficult to force a beachhead and I doubt that the rebels have anyone with the kind of specialized training that is required to avoid this from turning into a Dieppe or Bay of the Pigs'esque disaster. There are historical examples where this actually worked, like the Finnish landing in Tornio, behind the German front in 1944. Bad weather kept Luftwaffe grounded and prevented a German 88mm flak battery from seeing Finnish ships as they approached the harbour. But those kinds of operations require good intelligence, brass balls and sheer luck to work. Admittedly, the rebels have had all three. With informers on ground and reports from NATO real time satellite imagery it should be possible to find vulnerable spots, but a boat ride will take hours and during that time the situation could change.
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Aug 21, 2011 15:37
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Zeroisanumber posted:If you're launching boats full of equipment and fighters you have to have some kind of pre-planned landing zone in mind so that everyone knows where they are and what to do when they get there. That's doubly important if you're using non-combat boats in a combat situation. That means that the rebels inside the city had coordinated with 5th column rebels beforehand to have a secure landing point for their boats. Alright, from a military spokesman via twitter "An advance party "from Misrata reached Tripoli this dawn by sea and joined Tripoli rebels" Most important thing they could have brought is communication gear, bar none. Edit: Threw this together real quick on paint  Blue is areas said to be under rebel control, red is areas where there is said to be fighting. Easy enough to set up a landing then if they do control the docks in an area, but definitely ballsy. I'd put more money on it being minor support more than opening a major supply route. Also reports of fighting at the airport, missed that. farraday fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Aug 21, 2011 |
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Aug 21, 2011 15:39
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That's a useful map, really shows how much is under control at the moment. More goods news for the rebels:quote:Libyan rebels have captured a major military base that defends Moammar Gadhafi's stronghold of Tripoli. As Associated Press reporter with the rebels saw them take over the base of the Khamis Brigade, 16 miles west of the capital, on Sunday.
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Aug 21, 2011 16:42
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Brown Moses posted:More goods news for the rebels: I bet there are a lot of very fancy guns floating about now
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Aug 21, 2011 16:46
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Leperflesh posted:...Suggests that the West wants a more pliant client state in control of Libya Pretty much the whole point in a nutshell. I'm up all for Libya intervention if it means that they will have a genuine democratically elected government. However, when stuff like this starts to pop off, and I'm reminded of this mythical tale of western imperialism, I'm bound to be skeptical. Honestly though, I have faith in the people of Libya, they aren't going to support a puppet government just when they got finished with G. IRQ posted:You do realize that two mods post in this thread obsessively right? You do realize that we are allowed to have opposing views on such complicated matters right?
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Aug 21, 2011 16:50
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Slave posted:I bet there are a lot of very fancy guns floating about now The Khamis Brigade had the best weapons avaliable, so now the rebels do.
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Aug 21, 2011 16:52
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Brown Moses posted:The Khamis Brigade had the best weapons avaliable, so now the rebels do.  Sorry, had to be done. Slave posted:I bet there are a lot of very fancy guns floating about now I'd imagine the mercenaries are better armed than Gaddafi's men, even his son.
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Aug 21, 2011 16:58
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Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:I'd imagine the mercenaries are better armed than Gaddafi's men, even his son. Not quite up to par with TV reporters, though.
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Aug 21, 2011 17:03
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Interesting updates from Lulu Garcia-Navarro of NPR via Twitterquote:Just came back from main khames base in Maia. Nato bombed it, the rebels have taken it and are now taking weapons. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Aug 21, 2011 |
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Aug 21, 2011 17:06
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I'm honestly surprised that someone close to him hasn't just put a bullet in his head. The rebels are persistent, the populace is supporting the rebels, and some of his top military commanders have defected. He has to see the writing on the wall and know that the end is quickly closing on his regime.
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Aug 21, 2011 17:11
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KashiMane posted:Pretty much the whole point in a nutshell. I'm up all for Libya intervention if it means that they will have a genuine democratically elected government. However, when stuff like this starts to pop off, and I'm reminded of this mythical tale of western imperialism, I'm bound to be skeptical. Honestly though, I have faith in the people of Libya, they aren't going to support a puppet government just when they got finished with G. Does anyone else consider the logic behind the statement "I'm up all for Libya intervention if it means that they will have a genuine democratically elected government" suspect at best? You can consider quite easily the apparent logic, that you don't want to have a puppet strongman installed, but is that really what you're saying? There is an apparent belief in the importance of popular sovereignty, but at the same time this is less important than the conditional placed on it, that a western installed leader is inherently worse than a purely local strongman. This unpacks to an inherent belief that Qadaffi represents popular will in Libya better than any government that favored the major western powers because of an inherent bias toward presuming some mythical clash of civilizations divide between the west and everyone else. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but then again you claim to have a poli sci degree and that you understand this to be a complicated mater, so I don't see why I shouldn't read into your statements.
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Aug 21, 2011 17:13
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Square Pair posted:I'm honestly surprised that someone close to him hasn't just put a bullet in his head. The rebels are persistent, the populace is supporting the rebels, and some of his top military commanders have defected. He has to see the writing on the wall and know that the end is quickly closing on his regime. He could be in serious denial I guess? Maybe he's relying on other people to tell him how hosed he is and said people don't want to for fear of pissing him off. I'd also assume his generals defecting would be a pretty clear sign, but I don't think Gadaffi's all there mentally.
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Aug 21, 2011 17:19
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I'm really glad to see the rebels taking the fight to Tripoli, hopefully Qaddafi will be arrested or hanged soon.Stroh M.D. posted:A war with Israel would by all counts be a disaster and possibly even a curb stomp. There is a general consensus in Egypt that due to the previous regime egypt is in no shape to fight a war against anybody, nobody in Egypt wants a war with Israel, but they are fully aware of the threat Israel poses to them and any Arab in general both presently and in the future and currently most of the Egyptian intelligentsia and most of everybody who will have a hand in the government in the future are proposing the following short-medium term steps to deal with the Israeli threat until the country gets it's Infrastructure, technological and military industrial capabilities in order:- 1- Denying Israel any benefit from the camp david accords: Namely, cutting off all contacts, stopping any semblance of trade between both countries, finding out who's been spying and buddying up with israel in the past and either arresting or ostracizing them. calling out Israel's bullshit when they attack Egyptians and stop giving them free security and intelligence support against other Arabs especially the palestinians. essentially making the camp David accords ink on paper and nothing more. 2- Populating and developing the Sinai: This to Egypt is just as good if not better than having a world class military, one of the big ideas circulating Egyptian policy circles is developing and populating the Sinai peninsula and building no less than five cities each capable of holding a million people each. this will eliminate any possibility of Israel being able to invade and hold the peninsula in any case of war. a Sinai that has a population of 5 million can swallow up the entire IDF 3 times over. 3- Getting Africa back and securing Egypt's backyard from Israel: Mubarak hosed up Egypt's influence in Africa bigtime, and now Egypt's going overdrive politically to fix that and fight back against Israeli influence in the African countries specifically the Nile region. So yeah, while Egypt today cant fight a war against Israel. it has plenty of short term options to prepare itself against Israel until Egypt get's back on it's feet and fully unleashes it's technological and industrial capabilities a decade or two from now. Egypt has armies and armies of technologists, industrialists, military thinkers, thinkers, writers, artists and every strata of society waiting to explode and flourish under democracy, I think Israel of 2030 will be quite hosed indeed. quote:Almost all Egyptians believe they won the Yom Kippur war decisively, and tend to have a very idealized perception of their military's capabilities. The only things that separated Egypt from a decisive victory in that war were two things: Anwar Sadat's bungling and denying his competent generals every advice and requests to take the steps needed to turn the war decisively in Egypt favor during the second half of the war, and operation Nickel Grass. despite these, Egypt performed miracles during that war (especially in the first two weeks) given that they used old and second rate Russian equipment against first rate American goods fresh off the factory. Egypt had military geniuses who couldnt fulfill their potential due to the nature of the regime they had, now that Egypt is free, the military can now meet that potential rather than be crushed under the whims of some foolish dictator like Sadat or Mubarak. so I wouldnt brush them off just yet. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Aug 21, 2011 |
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Aug 21, 2011 17:32
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farraday posted:Edit: Threw this together real quick on paint Just for a point of reference, the Rixos is at the corner of the Nassar Park and Hai Demasheq. So, I updated your map. 
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