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BOT F at $10.74 30 minutes ago, stock is now halted pending news  Edit: They're instituting a $0.05/share quarterly divided. Great, I'm probably going to end up as Rajaratnam's cellmate. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Dec 8, 2011 |
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Dec 8, 2011 18:00
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cYp posted:What is the goon consensus on Zynga? I don't really know what to think. I personally think buying at the IPO price is dumb if you are trying to make a quick profit(shorting), may be better in a long position if you plan on holding the stock as a long term investment. I usually like to avoid all the IPO buzz and wait until the dust settles before valuating the security. The problem is it could go either way, but the buzz around a hot tech company and its IPO usually inflate the price much higher than it really should be, so you would risk paying a premium on a stock that could drop off like Groupon or Linkedin. Now if you want to talk stupid investments I had to talk a friend out of purchasing a leveraged 3x ETF. You must be a moron to go long on a 2x or 3x Leveraged ETF.
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Dec 9, 2011 00:27
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jshoreflyer posted:I don't really know what to think.
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Dec 9, 2011 00:44
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jshoreflyer posted:I don't really know what to think. I'm long SDS right now and I don't think I'm a moron (I guess morons never do, though) and have made money on this play plenty of times now. I won't hold it for more than a week or two, but yeah they aren't 'moronic' plays. Maybe you meant long term holding though, in which case you're right.
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Dec 9, 2011 01:16
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Is SDS leveraged? But yeah leveraged etfs are decaying so im the long term longterm its a dumb idea
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Dec 9, 2011 02:40
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yes SDS is a 2x s&p short ETF.
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Dec 9, 2011 03:38
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This Europe situation is getting a bit silly. If you go by what the press says(probably shouldn't), we rallied because Euro leaders agreed to meet to discuss what to do.
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Dec 10, 2011 01:59
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greasyhands posted:This Europe situation is getting a bit silly. If you go by what the press says(probably shouldn't), we rallied because Euro leaders agreed to meet to discuss what to do. I hate market spikes. Especially when I've got $5000 in a Roth account waiting for MSFT to drop below 25. So, what do you guys think, is this the beginning of the end of stocks at non-bubble prices or just another temporary blip on the radar?
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Dec 10, 2011 03:17
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It all depends on what you mean by "beginning". If you're looking at it lets say in a time frame of 6 months then i have no clue and i don't think anyone knows. For example, who the gently caress knows what type of bullshit treaty they will come up with and which countries will sign up. But if you look at it in a time frame of like 3-5 yrs, i would be of the opinion that no matter what they come up with they (and we) are hosed. The problem is massive debt by everyone and more debt is not going to fix it so whatever agreement ends up happening the debt collapse will come. No amount of bailouts, money printing or taxing will fix that. In that context i say this is phase 2 of said collapse. Now before anyone starts sperging out, i am not saying we're going to live in mad max world or anything but a big drop in "financial assets" is coming, 08 style. I believe MSFT is excellent value in that 3-5 year time frame. A doubling of price in 3 years means an annualized return of 24%, in 5 years it would be a 14.4% return. That's pretty sweet returns and right now its selling under 10x its annual earnings. You add to that a considerable drop from the bubble bursting and i would feel much more confident of it doubling in that time frame.
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Dec 10, 2011 03:54
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greasyhands posted:This Europe situation is getting a bit silly. If you go by what the press says(probably shouldn't), we rallied because Euro leaders agreed to meet to discuss what to do. Where have you been that this is new?
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Dec 10, 2011 05:58
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This is exactly what my brain's felt like trying to figure out Europe since August: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeEobpQMgD4 I'm long cash, plastic shoes, cheeseburgers and a car maker that makes ads appealing to people with erectile dysfunction.
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Dec 10, 2011 07:54
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Mexplosivo posted:I believe MSFT is excellent value in that 3-5 year time frame. A doubling of price in 3 years means an annualized return of 24%, in 5 years it would be a 14.4% return. That's pretty sweet returns and right now its selling under 10x its annual earnings. You add to that a considerable drop from the bubble bursting and i would feel much more confident of it doubling in that time frame. MSFT is a weird one, though - they seem to almost not care about shareholder value. I started buying in at 16 and change, but I've basically given up on buying more for the time being - and am considering selling my shares for something with a little more promise. There's no reason for it to be so low, but it's consistently trended with a low P/E for quite awhile now.
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Dec 10, 2011 10:43
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Turkeybone posted:I haven't heard anything about zynga being run by shady motherfuckers, so no I don't think it would be like groupon. They certainly make compelling little games, its a matter of valuation I guess. Hmm yes besides this Zynga CEO Marc Pincus posted:I did every horrible thing in the book to, just to get revenues right away. I mean we gave our users poker chips if they downloaded this Zwinky toolbar which was like, I don't know, I downloaded it once and couldn’t get rid of it. *laughs* We did anything possible just to just get revenues so that we could grow and be a real business.
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Dec 10, 2011 13:12
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Fuschia tude posted:Hmm yes besides this And let's not forget about allegedly going to employees and trying to take their options back before going public so they could have more of the company to give away to people that had nothing to do with building it. It basically sounds like you could take the script for Social Network and replace all instances of Zuckerberg with Pincus and have a true story. Only difference is I think Pincus has a better grasp on how lovely he's being than Zuckerberg did. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 00:45 on Dec 11, 2011 |
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Dec 11, 2011 00:41
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On the subject of Zynga: I work in Silicon Valley as a software engineer and have met at least a few people from Zynga by acquaintance. From what I hear, their corporate practices are incredibly antagonistic, and their software development environment is a nightmare. Most of the people I know complain in general about the company and have incredibly negative views of it.
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Dec 11, 2011 09:20
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Shooting Blanks posted:MSFT is a weird one, though - they seem to almost not care about shareholder value. I started buying in at 16 and change, but I've basically given up on buying more for the time being - and am considering selling my shares for something with a little more promise. There's no reason for it to be so low, but it's consistently trended with a low P/E for quite awhile now. They are huge (xbox joke?) so whats going to be the catalyst to shake it from its current valuation? All their new products (i.e., outside of Windows/Office/Enterprise) have had floundering to tepid impact on profits. MSFT is a low growth cash cow and hasn't kept up with the Nasdaq over the last 5 years even with the dividend. Everything feels cheap right now.
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Dec 14, 2011 00:50
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antishock posted:They are huge (xbox joke?) so whats going to be the catalyst to shake it from its current valuation? All their new products (i.e., outside of Windows/Office/Enterprise) have had floundering to tepid impact on profits. MSFT is a low growth cash cow and hasn't kept up with the Nasdaq over the last 5 years even with the dividend. What metric are you using to determine that things look cheap to you?
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Dec 14, 2011 02:32
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antishock posted:They are huge (xbox joke?) so whats going to be the catalyst to shake it from its current valuation? All their new products (i.e., outside of Windows/Office/Enterprise) have had floundering to tepid impact on profits. One way their share price will rise is if some of their new products actually take off. They do try a lot of things, eventually something may be successful. Another option is they divert their massive cash stream to shareholders by goosing the dividend.
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Dec 14, 2011 04:09
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Microsoft is sitting on $56 billion in cash and investments. Given the low interest rates, they could just give most of it to their shareholders and hardly affect their earnings at all. If you assume they've already done that, their price/free cash flow ratio drops to about 6.7. I don't need a catalyst; I just need the cash.
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Dec 14, 2011 04:36
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Hobologist posted:Microsoft is sitting on $56 billion in cash and investments. Given the low interest rates, they could just give most of it to their shareholders and hardly affect their earnings at all. Also someone above claimed MSFT isn't growing, I think it grew 10% last year, which is just insane. It should stop growing at some point since it is so large, but it hasn't happened yet. Value wise I might be a sucker, but MSFT is a huge buy for me. I know historically it is a value trap, but at some point printing out the cash they do it will have to start rising again, the numbers are just too good. Personally MSFT is my 4th largest holding behind VTV, GE, and BRK.B.
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Dec 14, 2011 07:42
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antishock posted:They are huge (xbox joke?) so whats going to be the catalyst to shake it from its current valuation? All their new products (i.e., outside of Windows/Office/Enterprise) have had floundering to tepid impact on profits. MSFT is a low growth cash cow and hasn't kept up with the Nasdaq over the last 5 years even with the dividend. Out of the three mayor consoles which do you think "won" as all around platform for this generation? An extra long one i might add. It might not bring in the profits of Windows/Office/Enterprise but i think MSFT is definitely competing in a lot of markets where there's a lot of growth and there's other areas where they are nowhere near competitive but i wouldn't count them out by a long shot. Think internet search. Mexplosivo fucked around with this message at 09:08 on Dec 14, 2011 |
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Dec 14, 2011 08:57
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I don't think amount of money in the bank or console product successes are particularly good ways of valuing companies when making decisions with regards to their fundamentals.
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Dec 14, 2011 09:21
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How long do I have to be in a stock before I can receive a dividend? Does it differ from stock to stock and how would I find out for the specific stock I'm in?
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Dec 14, 2011 11:11
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Cmdr. Shepard posted:How long do I have to be in a stock before I can receive a dividend? Does it differ from stock to stock and how would I find out for the specific stock I'm in? You just have to be in before the ex-dividend date. Most companies that issue dividends (not all companies pay dividends by the way) do it quarterly (i.e. 4 times a year). Sometime near their quarterly earnings announcements they'll tell you how much the dividend will pay and when the ex-dividend date will be. www.dividend.com is a good place to look up stocks for the past year's worth of ex-dividend dates and any known upcoming dates so you'll have some idea on when they'll occur. Here's a page that explain the basics of how dividends work: http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stock-library/dividend_stock_information.php nelson fucked around with this message at 14:37 on Dec 14, 2011 |
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Dec 14, 2011 14:17
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I also like http://dividata.com to look up dividend info. DO NOT SIGN UP FOR DIVIDEND.COM unless you like getting emailed 3 times a day to get subscribed to their paid service. http://dividata.com/stock/MSFT shows a break down of what the Last Dividend was and the xDiv in this case was 11/15. So as long as you owned on 11/14 and had it through date of record, you would get the dividend. Also the see more dividend history link gives a great graph on those that pay so you can see if they have been flat or increasing. Look at PG for example. http://dividata.com/stock/PG/dividend A nice ramp of increasing dividend payouts! It's like getting a raise!
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Dec 14, 2011 15:16
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Foma posted:Unless I am mistaken, that money isn't repatriated so it isn't there to give most of it back without incurring a tax bill. This is why buying Skype for 8 billion wasn't the worst idea ever, they could use overseas money to pay for it. There could be a tax holiday, since Cisco and MS have a couple Congressmen bought ot push the idea. Right. Should be about $34 billion after taxes, and a 7.7x cash flow multiple on the balance. I'm just used to seeing fully domestic companies that have cash that they will not spend and will not give back. But that yield is still low for a company that, as Mexplosivo said, still managed to grow. I think only a terminal decline or very high risk would justify that kind of multiple.
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Dec 14, 2011 17:23
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FSLR.... very interesting. They are essentially announcing that they think there are areas they can compete and make money that are unsubsidized... i.e. grid parity is here in some form. Looks like they are planning for lower margins going forward, but so what? Forward p/e is now about 10, they have a plan to be a solar player without bashing heads with the Chinese guys (let them kill each other off over the next couple of years, then wade back into that space.... brilliant), and they kicked off this new business plan with a big sale to Buffett. Backing up the truck here. Looking forward to all the 'reconsider FSLR' articles after all these kneejerk day of news worthless ones. Also, closed out SDS position at 7% gain.
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Dec 14, 2011 |
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Dec 14, 2011 17:59
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Every time gold takes a dump I get this warm fuzzy feeling inside... With the Euro in free fall and US domestic indicators looking relatively upbeat, I have a feeling commodities are going to take a beating in the coming weeks. At least up until the point where Merkel and Sarkozy comes up with another sweeping solution that achieves absolutely nothing...
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Dec 14, 2011 19:24
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cremnob fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Apr 16, 2013 |
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Dec 14, 2011 21:14
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Little bit of a rant below ....Hobologist posted:Microsoft is sitting on $56 billion in cash and investments. Given the low interest rates, they could just give most of it to their shareholders and hardly affect their earnings at all. A 3% dividend for a tech company seems like its higher than most in the sector -- not sure if the MSFT board would increase it. They aren't a PFE (though maybe they should be act as if ...). quote:Out of the three mayor consoles which do you think "won" as all around platform for this generation? An extra long one i might add. It might not bring in the profits of Windows/Office/Enterprise but i think MSFT is definitely competing in a lot of markets where there's a lot of growth and there's other areas where they are nowhere near competitive but i wouldn't count them out by a long shot. Think internet search. Internet search makes Google nearly nothing (maybe their google search appliance, but I can't think of anything else). Advertising does. Unless MSFT's advertising arm plans to partner with other high traffic sites or removes "to google" from the dictionary, GOOG has internet search and the accompanying online advertising locked up. Lets not even get into the whole "moat" discussion. Consoles are a non issue until cable tv moves to the iptv / streaming model and MSFT builds a 10' interface around it (also: they have to beat AAPL to market, which has been rumored to be doing something similar with aTV). I do see "Windows Everywhere" having a future if they pushed the the media / cable / telecom companies like AAPL does. Windows Phone 7 was to late even though it is a decent product. Can you imagine cable tv available on your smartphone, tablet, PC and TV? People would never stop looking at a Windows product. And then the integration with "social" and more targeted ads (i.e., expensive for advertisers) because MSFT could relay your anonymized internet and tv habits ... convergence has potential. Until MSFT does something exceptional instead of adequate, fundamentally its just going to keep up with inflation. quote:One way their share price will rise is if some of their new products actually take off. They do try a lot of things, eventually something may be successful. Another option is they divert their massive cash stream to shareholders by goosing the dividend. Effort does not equal outcome. Creativity and originality need a strong hand to be directed (hah!). Ask the large Pharma companies how they grow. Hint: its not organically. Huge size changes companies; they just aren't able to innovate in general. IBM / AAPL is an obvious example of the contrary in the tech industry, but do you think Balmer is really going to change the culture enough to disrupt status quo? I don't. antishock fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Dec 15, 2011 |
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Dec 15, 2011 03:30
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Cmdr. Shepard posted:How long do I have to be in a stock before I can receive a dividend? Don't forget that stock takes 3 days to settle, so you have to be long 3 days prior to the ex-dividend date to actually receive it.
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Dec 15, 2011 07:46
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Amun posted:Don't forget that stock takes 3 days to settle, so you have to be long 3 days prior to the ex-dividend date to actually receive it. This is incorrect. You're confusing the ex-dividend date with the record date. If you buy the stock prior to the ex-dividend date then you get the dividend because the transaction will settle prior to the record date (this is the definition of the ex-dividend date), which means you get the dividend because you fully own the stock (settled and everything) prior to the record date of the dividend.
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Dec 15, 2011 14:55
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Josh Lyman posted:Every academic study ever done on the subject has shown that IPO returns over the first month are negative on average. What about the IPOs that people actually care about?
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Dec 15, 2011 16:34
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Orgasmo posted:What about the IPOs that people actually care about?
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Dec 15, 2011 16:37
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Josh Lyman posted:If you're willing to make a bet on a sample size of 1, that's your prerogative. You know what I'm talking about, the larger IPOs. The LinkedIns, GMs, and Groupons of the world.
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Dec 15, 2011 16:46
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Orgasmo posted:You know what I'm talking about, the larger IPOs. The LinkedIns, GMs, and Groupons of the world.
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Dec 15, 2011 16:56
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So there are no other more fundamental relationships between large IPO offerings like market cap, initial market value? If that's the case, is the average return among dissimilar companies truly a meaningful measuring stick?
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Dec 15, 2011 17:01
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I thought the rule with IPOs was if you can get in on it, it's lovely.
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Dec 15, 2011 17:02
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For arguments sake and because I doubt many of us are Saudi princes, we're talking about the 1-month period following the real IPO.
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Dec 15, 2011 17:04
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I am a complete noob who is still in the process of finishing The Four Pillars of Investing and I realize that the answer to my question is purely based on your investment style but I could use some input anyway: When is the right time to realize gains? I am looking at around a 16% yield on my shares of DAL right now, but I am young and tend towards a long position in general. Of course I also realize that the answer to my question almost always depends on the stock's situation and outlook for continued growth, so along those lines does anyone have any insight on DAL?
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Dec 15, 2011 18:12
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