Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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resident: Dec 22, 2005; WE WERE ALL UP IN THAT SHIT LIKE A MUTHAFUCKA. IT'S CLEANER THAN A BROKE DICK DOG.

gvibes posted:

First, that guy clearly does not know anything about patents.

Second, my understanding of what happened (combined with some stuff from fosspatents):
1) NEON files a patent application on a slide to unlock function;
2) Apple files a patent application on slide to unlock, where an image follows along with your finger as you are sliding;
3) The Apple patent issues (7,657,849); and
4) The Neonode patent issues (8,095,879).

Acquiring Neonode would not do anything relevant to Apple's ownership or the validity of the Apple patent.

So which one of you guys bought 180k shares of NEON this morning?

As a legit investment outside of this buyout opportunity, Neonode's technology isn't really all that compelling. IR touchscreens have been in existence since the 1960-80s. They claim to have a lot of patents in the area but I doubt their ability to effectively enforce the majority of them given the history of the technology. It is not that daunting of a task for even a small consumer electronics company to produce their own IR touchscreen system with some IR LED/sensor arrays and a microcontroller.

# ? May 30, 2012 14:53

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 00:48

Doghouse: Oct 22, 2004; I was playing Harvest Moon 64 with this kid who lived on my street and my cows were not doing well and I got so raged up and frustrated that my eyes welled up with tears and my friend was like are you crying dude. Are you crying because of the cows. I didn't understand the feeding mechanic.

I have been playing around with the virtual stock market simulator game in the OP. How comparable is it to the real experience of buy and selling stocks through something like Scottrade? For instance, on the virtual game, I can buy stocks, then if 10 minutes later they are significantly higher, I can turn around and sell them quickly. Can you do the same thing in the real world?

# ? May 30, 2012 17:25

Turkeybone: Dec 9, 2006

Doghouse posted:

I have been playing around with the virtual stock market simulator game in the OP. How comparable is it to the real experience of buy and selling stocks through something like Scottrade? For instance, on the virtual game, I can buy stocks, then if 10 minutes later they are significantly higher, I can turn around and sell them quickly. Can you do the same thing in the real world?

Yes but only so often if your account is small so as not to violate the day-trader rule (someone can fill in the details or you can look it up).

Also you don't really worry so much about losses when it's virtual; you may find real life money to be palpably different.

# ? May 30, 2012 17:53

Doghouse: Oct 22, 2004; I was playing Harvest Moon 64 with this kid who lived on my street and my cows were not doing well and I got so raged up and frustrated that my eyes welled up with tears and my friend was like are you crying dude. Are you crying because of the cows. I didn't understand the feeding mechanic.

Turkeybone posted:

Yes but only so often if your account is small so as not to violate the day-trader rule (someone can fill in the details or you can look it up).

Also you don't really worry so much about losses when it's virtual; you may find real life money to be palpably different.

Interesting, didn't know about the day trader rule, I'll look into that.

Yes, real money is different. I've never done stock trading but I have played poker and boy is it different with real money, there is no comparison.

# ? May 30, 2012 19:10

Turkeybone: Dec 9, 2006

Doghouse posted:

Interesting, didn't know about the day trader rule, I'll look into that.

Yes, real money is different. I've never done stock trading but I have played poker and boy is it different with real money, there is no comparison.

That's why I like using technical analysis to help clearly define entries and exits.. so I'm not checking the ticker, fretting every second about whether I should sell, or kicking myself for every penny it goes above/below what I bought/sold at. It just becomes a matter-of-fact transaction so I dont have to worry about it until after it's done.

# ? May 30, 2012 20:58

Pudgygiant: Apr 8, 2004; Garnet and black? More like gold and blue or whatever the fuck colors these are

Oh hey we're talking about China?

http://www.google.com/finance?q=ccme

Deloitte audited that drat company and gave them a thumbs up. Everybody was very hot on them, they were a strong buy from every analyst at one point and the share price was basically vertical. Then the owner dumped all of his shares, and 30 seconds later I was out 10 grand. gently caress China, gently caress that goddamn country.

# ? May 30, 2012 21:20

lightpole: Jun 4, 2004; I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Doghouse posted:

Interesting, didn't know about the day trader rule, I'll look into that.

Yes, real money is different. I've never done stock trading but I have played poker and boy is it different with real money, there is no comparison.

I think you just have to have a large account. However it works, I was under the impression only the really lucky day traders made money over the short term and the long term had everyone a loser.

I was just curious why people would buy into China under the current conditions even (especially) with everyone saying buy on something. If I can't get a handle on the numbers or the business I don't see how I can know enough to risk money on it.

# ? May 30, 2012 22:14

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Pudgygiant posted:

Deloitte audited that drat company and gave them a thumbs up.

If nothing else, at least we all know now that the auditing companies are just charging for a rubber stamp. Even more useless than the rating agencies. I think all the Chinese ADR's had an 'audit' from one of the big four.

# ? May 30, 2012 22:49

Foma: Oct 1, 2004; Hello, My name is Lip Synch. Right now, I'm making a post that is anti-bush or something Micheal Moore would be proud of because I and the rest of my team lefty friends (koba1t included) need something to circle jerk to.

Baddog posted:

If nothing else, at least we all know now that the auditing companies are just charging for a rubber stamp. Even more useless than the rating agencies. I think all the Chinese ADR's had an 'audit' from one of the big four.

Audits don't mean what most people think they mean.

# ? May 30, 2012 22:58

every: Apr 24, 2008

Is anyone else trying to take advantage of the insanely low interest rates with some ETFs? This TBT keeps dropping, and I'm just going to keep buying.

# ? May 30, 2012 23:52

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

So sell in May and go away, huh? :sweatdrop:

# ? May 31, 2012 00:46

Baddog: May 12, 2001

every posted:

Is anyone else trying to take advantage of the insanely low interest rates with some ETFs? This TBT keeps dropping, and I'm just going to keep buying.

Dont hold it too long, ultrashorts have time decay.

# ? May 31, 2012 01:07

Jack: Jan 19, 2001

If you want to short bonds with ETFs TBF is the unlevered one that only has some minor decay.

Not sure I'd short bonds until we get another round of non-sterilized LSAPS from the FED though.

# ? May 31, 2012 01:17

The Shep: Jan 10, 2007; If found, please return this poster to GIP. His mothers are very worried and miss him very much.

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

So sell in May and go away, huh?

I just need to vent for a bit. Today was the largest single day drop in my portfolio in the past 6 months since I started dabbling in the market.

What a day. It's especially frustrating because yesterday was so drat great too.

# ? May 31, 2012 02:13

Harry: Jun 13, 2003; I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW

Foma posted:

Audits don't mean what most people think they mean.

While they don't specifically look for fraud, there's no way CCME should have gotten a clean opinion.

# ? May 31, 2012 02:19

Fuschia tude: Dec 26, 2004; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Baddog posted:

If nothing else, at least we all know now that the auditing companies are just charging for a rubber stamp. Even more useless than the rating agencies. I think all the Chinese ADR's had an 'audit' from one of the big four.

Didn't we know that a decade ago thanks to Enron et. al.?

# ? May 31, 2012 13:27

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

Hey now don't blame us poor CPAs because your 100(0)% annual return stock ends up being a bubble. Sue Deloitte if they issued material misstated statements and said they weren't.

# ? May 31, 2012 16:19

alnilam: Nov 10, 2009

Hey all, I'm giving my first stab at a shortish-term (hopefully a few weeks or less) trade based on technicals, so I thought I'd post my idea and ask you experienced folks if it sounds reasonable.

STKL has been bouncing above its 20-day EMA since early march.
It currently is heading back towards this EMA line.
So can I expect the EMA line to act as a support, and aim to buy it when it nears the EMA? My thought was 5.83 today or tomorrow, based on extrapolating the EMA, or next week maybe higher depending on the trend.
Then my hope is to hold until at least 6 and set a trailing stop.

I'm not great at analyzing fundamentals, but analysts etc. rate it as a buy and seem pleased by its fundamentals.

Another consideration is maybe when it gets to the EMA, wait to see if it appears to be bouncing back up, or should I trust it and buy at the EMA?

Thanks for any advice, and "don't risk it if you're this unsure" is a valid response.

# ? May 31, 2012 18:47

Cheesemaster200: Feb 11, 2004; Guard of the Citadel

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

So sell in May and go away, huh?

The Eurozone problems coming to a head (again) seems kind of irrelevant to whatever month it is. The financial press is all over this crap. Nobody was saying "sell in August and go away" last year....

# ? May 31, 2012 22:17

Harry: Jun 13, 2003; I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW

Cheesemaster200 posted:

The Eurozone problems coming to a head (again) seems kind of irrelevant to whatever month it is. The financial press is all over this crap. Nobody was saying "sell in August and go away" last year....

Well yeah, that doesn't have the weight of a rhyme added to it.

# ? May 31, 2012 22:34

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

Cheesemaster200 posted:

The Eurozone problems coming to a head (again) seems kind of irrelevant to whatever month it is. The financial press is all over this crap. Nobody was saying "sell in August and go away" last year....

Right but historically selling in May and going away has been pretty good. But most people (including myself) stayed in because, according to data, the effect isn't as strong during election years.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 00:36

R.A. Dickey: Feb 20, 2005; Knuckleballer.

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

Right but historically selling in May and going away has been pretty good. But most people (including myself) stayed in because, according to data, the effect isn't as strong during election years.

Most people stayed in because they don't base investment decisions on a dumb rhyme.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 01:47

Jack: Jan 19, 2001

That dumb rhyme was a better investment thesis than most people had when buying FB.

quote:

STKL has been bouncing above its 20-day EMA since early march.

Is that company still around? I remember when it was a biofuel play like 8 years ago. Would have thought it went the route of PEIX.

Also brings back memories of the great bird flu mania and the speculative insanity that led to in some of those medical stocks. I suspect 8 years from now I'll be looking back at the 'social media' mania with the same nostalgic fondness.

Given the way things are going in Europe and what that will mean for entitlement spending in the US I probably can look at retail stocks in the same light.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 02:41

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

R.A. Dickey posted:

Most people stayed in because they don't base investment decisions on a dumb rhyme.

Of course, but

and

You shouldn't base you're investing on a rhyme but the rhyme came about out of reason and isn't some random jingle.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 03:26

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

Those are terrible graphs.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 12:35

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

shrike82 posted:

Those are terrible graphs.

They're certainly ugly but they aren't confusing. :confused:

# ? Jun 1, 2012 12:59

COUNTIN THE BILLIES: Jan 8, 2006; by Ion Helmet

Horrible employment number.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 14:00

scavok: Feb 22, 2005

drat, I'm going to lose a lot of money today :v:

# ? Jun 1, 2012 14:01

Dolphin: Dec 5, 2008; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Turkeybone posted:

That's why I like using technical analysis to help clearly define entries and exits.. so I'm not checking the ticker, fretting every second about whether I should sell, or kicking myself for every penny it goes above/below what I bought/sold at. It just becomes a matter-of-fact transaction so I dont have to worry about it until after it's done.

I treat my account as spent money that I'll never get back. I don't calculate it into my available income at all--I just pretend that I've already lost all of it. It makes it much easier to keep my head straight.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 14:13

Cheesemaster200: Feb 11, 2004; Guard of the Citadel

Does anyone know how seasonal adjustment for employment numbers is calculated?

If you look here:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

The month over month change in jobs, not seasonally adjusted is ~800k (unless I am reading it wrong).

Presumably, the seasonal adjustment discounts the jobs number during the warmer months to compensate in fluctuations in industries like construction, etc. The problem with this though is that construction has consistently been poo poo for the last 3-4 years. If you look at the employment numbers for this and last year, you will notice that job numbers drop off in the summer month and then get big boosts in the winter months. Could this possibly be due to a mismatch in how the seasonal fluctuations are calculated in relation to how they now function in the current market.

Presumably the seasonal adjustments are based off historical data. How the job market acted in lets say 2005 when construction was booming is going to be very different than how it functions today.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 14:45

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

quote:

Seasonal adjustment

Over the course of a year, the size of the nation's labor force and
the levels of employment and unemployment undergo regularly occurring
fluctuations. These events may result from seasonal changes in weather,
major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The effect of
such seasonal variation can be very large.

Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular pattern
each year, their influence on the level of a series can be tempered by
adjusting for regular seasonal variation. These adjustments make
nonseasonal developments, such as declines in employment or increases
in the participation of women in the labor force, easier to spot. For
example, in the household survey, the large number of youth entering
the labor force each June is likely to obscure any other changes that
have taken place relative to May, making it difficult to determine if
the level of economic activity has risen or declined. Similarly, in
the establishment survey, payroll employment in education declines by
about 20 percent at the end of the spring term and later rises with
the start of the fall term, obscuring the underlying employment trends
in the industry. Because seasonal employment changes at the end and
beginning of the school year can be estimated, the statistics can be
adjusted to make underlying employment patterns more discernable. The
seasonally adjusted figures provide a more useful tool with which to
analyze changes in month-to-month economic activity.

Many seasonally adjusted series are independently adjusted in both
the household and establishment surveys. However, the adjusted series
for many major estimates, such as total payroll employment, employment
in most major sectors, total employment, and unemployment are computed
by aggregating independently adjusted component series. For example,
total unemployment is derived by summing the adjusted series for four
major age-sex components; this differs from the unemployment estimate
that would be obtained by directly adjusting the total or by combining
the duration, reasons, or more detailed age categories.

For both the household and establishment surveys, a concurrent
seasonal adjustment methodology is used in which new seasonal factors
are calculated each month using all relevant data, up to and including
the data for the current month. In the household survey, new seasonal
factors are used to adjust only the current month's data. In the
establishment survey, however, new seasonal factors are used each month
to adjust the three most recent monthly estimates. The prior 2 months
are routinely revised to incorporate additional sample reports and
recalculated seasonal adjustment factors. In both surveys, 5-year revisions
to historical data are made once a year.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 15:00

idolmind86: Jun 13, 2003; It's better to burn out than to fade away.

It's even better to work out, numbnuts.

Jesus my portfolio is down about 4.5% today. I'm real tempted to sell everything and give up on the market... Ugh I can't deal with this.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 16:23

Harry: Jun 13, 2003; I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW

Or, you could double down.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 16:29

alnilam: Nov 10, 2009

Sorry to bounce myself, but this is my first attempt at this kind of Stock Picking, Analysis, and Trading (below) and today might be the day...can someone at least tell me if this plan is glaringly bad?

alnilam posted:

Hey all, I'm giving my first stab at a shortish-term (hopefully a few weeks or less) trade based on technicals, so I thought I'd post my idea and ask you experienced folks if it sounds reasonable.

STKL has been bouncing above its 20-day EMA since early march.
It currently is heading back towards this EMA line.
So can I expect the EMA line to act as a support, and aim to buy it when it nears the EMA? My thought was 5.83 today or tomorrow, based on extrapolating the EMA, or next week maybe higher depending on the trend.
Then my hope is to hold until at least 6 and set a trailing stop.

I'm not great at analyzing fundamentals, but analysts etc. rate it as a buy and seem pleased by its fundamentals.

Another consideration is maybe when it gets to the EMA, wait to see if it appears to be bouncing back up, or should I trust it and buy at the EMA?

Thanks for any advice, and "don't risk it if you're this unsure" is a valid response.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 16:40

bam thwok: Sep 20, 2005; I sure hope I don't get banned

alnilam posted:

Sorry to bounce myself, but this is my first attempt at this kind of Stock Picking, Analysis, and Trading (below) and today might be the day...can someone at least tell me if this plan is glaringly bad?

Trading based on a single technical indicator when the market's volatility is at a six-month high is loving bonkers.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 17:25

illcendiary: Dec 4, 2005; Damn, this is good coffee.

Do it, lose your money, and learn your lesson.

Or, alternatively, do it, end up right, make money, lose money on your next attempt at making a quick buck.

It's hard to say "don't do it if you're unsure" because as a rule everyone is unsure because it's impossible to tell how stocks will behave, especially in your short two-week time frame. If you're comfortable with losing money, go for it. If this is a scheme you drew up to make a quick buck and build a new gaming PC, stay away.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 17:25

Foma: Oct 1, 2004; Hello, My name is Lip Synch. Right now, I'm making a post that is anti-bush or something Micheal Moore would be proud of because I and the rest of my team lefty friends (koba1t included) need something to circle jerk to.

idolmind86 posted:

Jesus my portfolio is down about 4.5% today. I'm real tempted to sell everything and give up on the market... Ugh I can't deal with this.

This is the worst plan, either move quick or don't move your too late to jump out.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 17:30

Inverse Icarus: Dec 4, 2003; I run SyncRPG, and produce original, digital content for the Pathfinder RPG, designed from the ground up to be played online.

idolmind86 posted:

Jesus my portfolio is down about 4.5% today. I'm real tempted to sell everything and give up on the market... Ugh I can't deal with this.

All these cheap hamburgers! I must get away!

# ? Jun 1, 2012 17:46

alnilam: Nov 10, 2009

bam thwok posted:

Trading based on a single technical indicator when the market's volatility is at a six-month high is loving bonkers.

That's sort of what I was particularly wondering (overall market movement versus the movement of a particular stock), and you answered it, thanks.

edit:

illcendiary posted:

Do it, lose your money, and learn your lesson.

Or, alternatively, do it, end up right, make money, lose money on your next attempt at making a quick buck.

It's hard to say "don't do it if you're unsure" because as a rule everyone is unsure because it's impossible to tell how stocks will behave, especially in your short two-week time frame. If you're comfortable with losing money, go for it. If this is a scheme you drew up to make a quick buck and build a new gaming PC, stay away.

Everyone's gotta start somewhere. I'm not trying to make any quick bucks for any near-term use, any more than any other short-term trader in this thread is. Honestly I'm just giving it a try while most of my money sits in boring mutual funds :rolleyes:

alnilam fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Jun 1, 2012

# ? Jun 1, 2012 17:46

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 00:48

Muddy Terrain: Dec 23, 2004; by Y Kant Ozma Post

idolmind86 posted:

Jesus my portfolio is down about 4.5% today. I'm real tempted to sell everything and give up on the market... Ugh I can't deal with this.

Double down like Harry suggested.

# ? Jun 1, 2012 17:51

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