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whydirt
Apr 18, 2001


Gaz Posting Brigade :c00lbert:
Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard signs off on domestic partner benefits:

http://www.indystar.com/article/20120823/NEWS/120823042/

It's kind of big news since the mayor is a Republican.

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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



whydirt posted:

Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard signs off on domestic partner benefits:

http://www.indystar.com/article/20120823/NEWS/120823042/

It's kind of big news since the mayor is a Republican.
And now the Indiana legislature can work on a ban on partner benefits, like Michigan and Arizona.
It never went into effect in Arizona, but I don't know if a stay was ever issued in Michigan.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



DNC Platform is out. Freedom To Marry has its own section.

2012 posted:

We support the right of all families to have equal respect, responsibilities, and protections under the law. We support marriage equality and support the movement to secure equal treatment under law for same-sex couples. We also support the freedom of churches and religious entities to decide how to administer marriage as a religious sacrament without government interference. We oppose discriminatory federal and state constitutional amendments and other attempts to deny equal protection of the laws to committed same-sex couples who seek the same respect and responsibilities as other married couples. We support the full repeal of the so-called Defense of Marriage Act and the passage of the Respect for Marriage Act.

2008 posted:

We support the full inclusion of all families, including same-sex couples, in the life of our nation,and support equal responsibility, benefits, and protections...We oppose the Defense of Marriage Act and all attempts to use this issue to divide us.
Cropped out a line about ENDA that was moved and expanded for 2012.

WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo
house dems come out swinging in amicus brief re: unconstitutionality of DOMA

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Survey of Constitution Law professors has some neat stuff.


I enjoyed this look at ideology.

quote:

More than a third of same-sex marriage supporters declined to say that recognition is constitutionally mandated.

...

By contrast, not a single respondent who opposed same-sex marriage as a policy matter believed recognition of it was required by the Constitution.

skaboomizzy
Nov 12, 2003

There is nothing I want to be. There is nothing I want to do.
I don't even have an image of what I want to be. I have nothing. All that exists is zero.
This has been "a big thing on the internet" today:

Baltimore Ravens player Brendon Ayanbadejo publicly voiced his support for gay marriage. A Maryland state legislator wrote the owners/president of the team, asking them to just shut him up because football fans don't want to hear what a football player thinks about social issues. Management of the team later talked to Ayanbadejo and fully supported the player's comments, saying the organization does not believe in discrimination and fully supported his right to make his statement.

Chris Kluwe, the punter for the Minnesota Vikings, avid World of Warcraft player and possibly the gooniest player in the entire NFL, responded with a profanity-filled tirade against the state legislator and a couple TV interviews. Kluwe's letter could certainly have been better phrased for the general public, but the sentiment is right on.

Most people are pleasantly surprised that pro football players are speaking up in favor of marriage equality and gay rights in general (see the San Francisco 49ers It Gets Better video). Expect to see some more on this story, especially as NFL season kicks into full speed this weekend.

skaboomizzy fucked around with this message at 06:08 on Sep 8, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



The letter from the punter is incredible and worth reading.


SurveyUSA has great results from Washington.

quote:

A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?

Approved 56%
Rejected 38%
Not Sure 6%
It's within the margin of error plus 2-4% liars that plague every marriage poll, but I have no complaints.
I would be thrilled to keep polling 49% among ages 50+.


e: Human Rights Campaign made a really good timeline of the next 12 months.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 05:21 on Sep 12, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Minnesota looks bad.

KTSP/SurveyUSA 50-43 in favor of the amendment banning same sex marriage.
PPP 48-47 in favor.

Even in the closer poll, independents support the ban and the level of opposition from women (51%) and young people (50%) isn't nearly high enough to overcome the usual deficits among GOP and older voters.

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

Minnesota looks bad.

KTSP/SurveyUSA 50-43 in favor of the amendment banning same sex marriage.
PPP 48-47 in favor.

Even in the closer poll, independents support the ban and the level of opposition from women (51%) and young people (50%) isn't nearly high enough to overcome the usual deficits among GOP and older voters.

Do you believe we will win Maryland, Washington and Maine? At voters value summit they are discussing these states and I have never wanted these assholes to lose more than now. Here is summary what they are saying.

Edit: they are talking about latest polls and they are scared big time in Maine ( we need to raise 2 million because our latest internal polls down by 10)

Washington (" people support same sex marriage to prove they don't hate gays")

Maryland( We will lose if we do not become more active and engaged "there more of us than them")

Minnesota ( support holding strong but polls don't win elections)

Mr Ice Cream Glove fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Sep 15, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Maine has been polling very strong (40% was the peak of opposition in polls this year) and the last ad buy report I saw was ~$900k for and ~$200k against.

Washington has also been polling well, the public passed "everything but marriage" in 2009, and a bunch of millionaires are on board.

Maryland is super questionable unless you buy into very recent polls suggesting President Obama's endorsement really changed opinions.
More than 10 Senate Dems and 20+ House Dems opposed the marriage bill this year.
This is the only state where I don't know if we have the money advantage because Freedom To Marry looked at early 2012 polling and bowed out, while spending $1M in each of the other three states.

Minnesota has not polled well at all, but we have a lot of money. This is terrible because a Minnesota loss has the worst long term effects since that means a constitutional ban and not the status quo like the other 3.

Althair
Jul 26, 2006
words are weapons
I marched with OneIowa (Iowa's largest civil rights organization serving the LGBT community) today in Des Moines. We had a marching band in front and the Romney/Ryan SUV behind us. The route was almost two miles, lined by people the whole way.

It was such an amazing and encouraging experience. Not one block passed without our contingent being cheered and thanked. Parents sent their kids to collect candy and stickers with marriage equality slogans from me and my fellow volunteers. There were no hecklers, and when our float was introduced by the MC he made note to the crowd of the importance of the upcoming elections.

One of the women marching with us told me that when she was marching in the late eighties and early nineties it wasn't uncommon for beer bottles and rubbish to be hurled at them along with abuse. Obviously that and worse still happens, but being welcomed so enthusiastically by so many Iowans was such a heartening experience. Iowa Republicans may start the process of challenging marriage equality after the elections but I'm confident the people of Iowa won't let them follow through.

Mo_Steel
Mar 7, 2008

Let's Clock Into The Sunset Together

Fun Shoe

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

Minnesota looks bad.

KTSP/SurveyUSA 50-43 in favor of the amendment banning same sex marriage.
PPP 48-47 in favor.

Even in the closer poll, independents support the ban and the level of opposition from women (51%) and young people (50%) isn't nearly high enough to overcome the usual deficits among GOP and older voters.

Which is disappointing, even if it matches about what I've heard in local suburbs here; so many people have told me they would be fine with it if it wasn't called marriage because for some reason people are still stuck on the name. I was really hoping we'd follow Iowa's example and not wind up on the wrong side of history on this issue too. :sweatdrop:

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



^^^
Hopefully Democrats can take the legislature and pass civil unions if the ban passes. There's a decent chance the Nevada case goes well and in ~3 years marriage amendments are overturned in states with civil unions.


Althair posted:

Iowa Republicans may start the process of challenging marriage equality after the elections but I'm confident the people of Iowa won't let them follow through.
Yeah you're not losing a marriage referendum in 2016 after seven years of marriage equality not destroying the state, Presidential election turnout, and four more years of increasing support for marriage.

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.
It'll be interesting to see what NOM's messaging shifts to once they start losing ballot referendums in states. Since I've seen a lot of their messaging boil down to: "x million people voted to ban marriage, but 3 judges overturned them."

In the past, a mainstay of the anti-marriage messaging has been to push the idea that the majority opposes marriage between same sex couples. With them in the minority, it'll be interesting to see how they shift their messaging.

Armyman25
Sep 6, 2005

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

^^^
Hopefully Democrats can take the legislature and pass civil unions if the ban passes. There's a decent chance the Nevada case goes well and in ~3 years marriage amendments are overturned in states with civil unions.
Yeah you're not losing a marriage referendum in 2016 after seven years of marriage equality not destroying the state, Presidential election turnout, and four more years of increasing support for marriage.

Luckily the Iowa Constitution is pretty hard to amend, so I think we're safe. Always vigilant though.

The Macaroni
Dec 20, 2002
...it does nothing.
Any word on how the Maryland marriage ballot question (#6) is polling? My google fu is weak. I'm interested in the statewide numbers to see if they're super skewed by Prince George's and Frederick counties.

rkajdi
Sep 11, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

The Macaroni posted:

Any word on how the Maryland marriage ballot question (#6) is polling? My google fu is weak. I'm interested in the statewide numbers to see if they're super skewed by Prince George's and Frederick counties.

What I've heard is that the referendum will pass (i.e. gay marriage is legal) but the idea that Frednecks could decide anything like this scares the hell out of me. Really, my hope is that Ayanbadejo gets a couple of the "BOBBY FROM TOWSON" crowd to re-think their position and start acting like human beings. That would have this thing sail through. It's super sad that an incredibly blue state like MD even has to push like this for stuff to happen. At least the old fuckwit Bartlett may have finally been gerrymandered out of his seat.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



The Macaroni posted:

Any word on how the Maryland marriage ballot question (#6) is polling? My google fu is weak. I'm interested in the statewide numbers to see if they're super skewed by Prince George's and Frederick counties.
Nothing super recent, but it's polled pretty well. I'm only bearish on the election because 29% of Democrats voted against the bill compared to 7% in Washington.
I suspect the areas you listed are disproportionately represented by opponents.

Basically no crosstabs though. The best you'll get is data split by area code in the May poll.

March 8 (PPP): 52-44 in favor
March 28 (Opinionworks): 40-43
May 24 (PPP): 57-37
August 2 (Hart): 54-40

I'll try to organize all the polls in the OP for future reference.

e: OP updated.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Sep 16, 2012

The Macaroni
Dec 20, 2002
...it does nothing.
Thanks for the links and info. drat, I should've given more money to the Maine effort than Maryland if it's looking that positive here.

I live in yokel northeastern Maryland. Equality Maryland isn't even bothering to send volunteers up here--no point, I guess. :( Hell, my vote in favor of gay marriage is going to be canceled out by my mother-in-law's vote. At least my wife will put my household +1 in favor.

Sad Banana
Sep 7, 2011
http://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...5f97_story.html

Nothing super informative, but Ruth Bader Ginsburg is pretty sure the court will be taking up a DOMA case in the next term.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Sad Banana posted:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...5f97_story.html

Nothing super informative, but Ruth Bader Ginsburg is pretty sure the court will be taking up a DOMA case in the next term.
It's a Congressional law that's been repeatedly ruled unconstitutional. SCOTUS will absolutely take that up.

We'll know in early October or so. The Prop 8 case is less likely to be heard and we could be as early as Tuesday the 25th.

VirtualStranger
Aug 20, 2012

:lol:
Isn't it better if the SCOTUS decides not to take up the Prop 8 case? From what I understand, the 9th circuit decision limited the effect of the ruling to California, so if it gets taken up by the Supreme Court, we have nothing to gain and everything to lose. If the SC decides not to take the case, then marriage equality will resume in California shortly afterwards. If they take the case and agree with the lower court rulings that Prop 8 is unconstitutional, then that would essentially have the same effect as declining to hear it entirely.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



VirtualStranger posted:

Isn't it better if the SCOTUS decides not to take up the Prop 8 case? From what I understand, the 9th circuit decision limited the effect of the ruling to California, so if it gets taken up by the Supreme Court, we have nothing to gain and everything to lose. If the SC decides not to take the case, then marriage equality will resume in California shortly afterwards. If they take the case and agree with the lower court rulings that Prop 8 is unconstitutional, then that would essentially have the same effect as declining to hear it entirely.
The 9th Circuit opinion doesn't really matter. This is a common misconception. SCOTUS Justices can do whatever they want.

Not granting cert is the least bad outcome, but not necessarily the best.

I'd bet against it, but it's possible for them to grant cert and make a broader ruling.

The Nevada suit is coming. Why don't the liberal Justices deal with it now and rule there is no rational basis for a constitutional ban in a state with domestic partnerships? (CA, NV, OR)

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.
What are the odds of the Supreme Court consolidating the DOMA and Prop 8 cases into a single case and making a broader ruling on marriage equality that way?

Thewittyname
May 9, 2010

It's time to...
PRESS! YOUR! LUCK!

Instant Sunrise posted:

What are the odds of the Supreme Court consolidating the DOMA and Prop 8 cases into a single case and making a broader ruling on marriage equality that way?

The outcome of these cases is literally whatever Justice Kennedy wants them to be. I'd actually be surprised if the Court took up both cases and didn't combine them, but I think it's more likely that DOMA gets heard and Prop 8 does not.

Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


Thewittyname posted:

The outcome of these cases is literally whatever Justice Kennedy wants them to be. I'd actually be surprised if the Court took up both cases and didn't combine them, but I think it's more likely that DOMA gets heard and Prop 8 does not.
If SCOTUS said bans on same-sex marriage were constitutional, it would be written as "Roberts' Court" being on the wrong side of history. I would guess that Roberts doesn't want to be "that guy." And we've seen him go against the party line before with PPACA.

Kennedy has typically been pro-gay rights in the past, so I wouldn't really worry about it.

eSports Chaebol
Feb 22, 2005

Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

Crows Turn Off posted:

If SCOTUS said bans on same-sex marriage were constitutional, it would be written as "Roberts' Court" being on the wrong side of history. I would guess that Roberts doesn't want to be "that guy." And we've seen him go against the party line before with PPACA.

Kennedy has typically been pro-gay rights in the past, so I wouldn't really worry about it.

The Roberts Court is going to be on the wrong side of history anyway when they overturn Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, so no point in holding back.

That said, DOMA is really stupid and the court may very well strike it down somewhat narrowly on something like Full Faith and Credit grounds, allowing Congress to try to write another law tailored to the ruling (which they probably won't anyway). Politically that might even be a better outcome for gay rights than ~*jUdIcIaL aCtIvIsM*~

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



New poll in Maine

9/18 PPP: 52-44 in favor of Question 1.

We aren't running up the score enough to beat the margin of error.



If 2008 exit polls were accurate, they oversampled old people and men, but also Democrats so that might be a wash.

EBT
Oct 29, 2005

by Ralp
If anyone thought that Chik-fil-a was actually going to stop http://www.advocate.com/business/2012/09/20/chick-fil-raising-money-very-week-anti-marriage-equality-group

Can't even muster a welp for this one.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
Guys who spent years backing camps where gay kids kill themselves and legit supported the Uganda 'kill the gays' thing still hate gays? No way!

It'll be fun to show this to all my dumbass pseudo-liberal friends who rushed to be all 'OH FINALLY I CAN EAT THEIR CHICKEN AGAIN'.

Kugyou no Tenshi
Nov 8, 2005

We can't keep the crowd waiting, can we?

EBT posted:

If anyone thought that Chik-fil-a was actually going to stop http://www.advocate.com/business/2012/09/20/chick-fil-raising-money-very-week-anti-marriage-equality-group

Can't even muster a welp for this one.
Seriously, anyone who knew the origins of the M&FF and thought that CFA was being honest was deluding themselves. I had only hoped that it would at least have driven their sponsorship purely into private giving, but they're still directly and openly supporting these groups as a company, funds or no.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Another Maine poll pretty much agrees with PPP.

9/17 MRPC: 53-43
Both polls had 4% undecided, but those people will vote against Question 1.

Brigadier Sockface
Apr 1, 2007
So if it turns out that the Supreme Court doesn't want to hear the appeal to the Prop 8 strike-down tomorrow, then same sex marriage is legal in California again?

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Brigadier Sockface posted:

So if it turns out that the Supreme Court doesn't want to hear the appeal to the Prop 8 strike-down tomorrow, then same sex marriage is legal in California again?
Tomorrow is only the announcement of cases being heard and not specific denials of cert. I believe next week is the earliest we could here if the case is being denied and/or sent back for another 9th Circuit review.

But if cert isn't granted and it's not kicked back to the 9th, marriage licenses would soon be issued.

Minnesota poll from the 19th
49-47 in favor of the amendment.

e: :argh: quote button

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Sep 24, 2012

VirtualStranger
Aug 20, 2012

:lol:
Good news if you happen to be one of the few people who live in Delaware. Governor Markell and the State House representative from Rehoboth both expect a full marriage equality bill to be passed sometime next year. Delaware had previously legalized civil unions last year.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/06/jack-markell-delaware-marriage-equality_n_1748826.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular

http://blogs.delawareonline.com/firststatepolitics/2012/09/26/schwartzkopf-gay-marriage-a-no-brainer/

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Not marriage equality, but still gay rights related:
California bans gay conversion therapy

Now if only the rest of the country could follow suit.

TheThirst
Oct 26, 2006

Lately I've been feeling drained--I only wish to be entertained
So with about a month until Election Day, the anti gay groups are going to be starting up their public/media campaigns against the marriage initiatives.

In Maryland, it seems like they've been trying the "the text of the bill lies, your church will have to marry them!" and "think of the children, schools will teach them about gays now!" arguments. The wording of the referendum is really in our favor, but the whole children issue seems to work incredibly well for them.

Have any of you seen good ways to push back against that in a way that undecided voters react well to? There's the fact that school policies are set by parents and teachers in the community and not the law, but I'm not sure how well that works.

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

CNN takes on rear end in a top hat from National Association for the Research and Treatment of Homosexuality (NARTH)

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnns-brooke-baldwin-battles-reparative-therapist-who-believes-in-therapy-to-cure-homosexuality/

This is a fantastic video to know that CA Governor shut this poo poo down. They then throw the APA at him.

Mr Ice Cream Glove fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Oct 1, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



TheThirst posted:

So with about a month until Election Day, the anti gay groups are going to be starting up their public/media campaigns against the marriage initiatives.

In Maryland, it seems like they've been trying the "the text of the bill lies, your church will have to marry them!" and "think of the children, schools will teach them about gays now!" arguments. The wording of the referendum is really in our favor, but the whole children issue seems to work incredibly well for them.

Have any of you seen good ways to push back against that in a way that undecided voters react well to? There's the fact that school policies are set by parents and teachers in the community and not the law, but I'm not sure how well that works.
MD For Marriage Equality has a site with some decent stuff.

quote:

In Maryland, a school’s specific curriculum is decided by local school districts. Teachers and parents decide what is taught in the classroom, and no state law – including the marriage question on the November ballot – changes that (see MD Edu. Code Ann. § 4-111).

Maryland polls.

Sep 27th 49-39 MOE 3.5

Sep 23rd 51-43 MOE 3.5

Anything below 50% plus the margin of error is not great.

In all likelihood we're going to lose one to three states where the opposition has never polled higher than 44%.
:argh: undecided liars.


e: Nobody knows anything about the Prop 8 case. Expect SCOTUS to act after the election and be pleasantly surprised by anything sooner. DOMA won't be settled until June or later so the date they grant cert doesn't affect anyone.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Oct 2, 2012

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Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

CNN takes on rear end in a top hat from National Association for the Research and Treatment of Homosexuality (NARTH)

Yes, always, Pinky

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