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SilentD posted:Uh no, Turkey would have no problems curb stomping the Syrian military in the situation it's in now. Even if Syria wasn't in chaos Turkey has one of the largest, most modern, best equipped military's in the region. They also can get a bit honor crazy.  NOTHING CAN GO WRONG, THEY WILL WELCOME US AS LIBERATORS  Where have I heard that before?
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Oct 3, 2012 21:33
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Nenonen posted:
The American Revolution when the French joined in? The U.S. had bombed the poo poo out of Iraq a decade before and crippled them with sanctions and were attacking a stable government. The Turks have taken in half of Syria as refugees and would be going into a civil war. It's not a good comparison. VVVVV Harshly worded memo headed to Damascus. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Oct 3, 2012 |
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Oct 3, 2012 21:34
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NATO meeting ends with all member condemning the attack on Turkey.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:36
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And just yesterday one of my non-politically inclined friends asked me how the Middle East, and Syria in particular, was doing. Now, aside from how silly that question was yesterday, it just got a lot sillier.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:38
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Nenonen posted:
I never said nothing can go wrong and they will welcome them as liberators. But you know, they don't have to stay. Turkey can easily roll anything in Syria that they consider a threat and get out. They can kill what they need to kill and Syria can't do much at all about it. poo poo can always go wrong, on the other hand if you think that an already weakened and chaotic Syrian military can do much of anything to stop the Turks from taking out things they feel are a threat, or just obliterating them I don't know what to say.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:39
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Brown Moses posted:NATO meeting ends with all member condemning the attack on Turkey. They had a 15 minute meeting? What's the point?
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Oct 3, 2012 21:39
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wins32767 posted:They had a 15 minute meeting? What's the point? They also told Syria not to do it again.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:40
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Good that's solved then 
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Oct 3, 2012 21:44
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Brown Moses posted:They also told Syria not to do it again. Anything out of Damascus about it?
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Oct 3, 2012 21:44
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Volkerball posted:Anything out of Damascus about it? Nothing I've seen yet. [edit] NATO's statement quote:As stated on 26 June 20l2, the Alliance continues to closely follow the situation in Syria. In view of the Syrian regime’s recent aggressive acts at NATO’s southeastern border, which are a flagrant breach of international law and a clear and present danger to the security of one of its Allies, the North Atlantic Council met today, within the framework of Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, and discussed the continuous shelling of locations in Turkey adjacent to the Turkish-Syrian border by the Syrian regime forces. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Oct 3, 2012 |
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Oct 3, 2012 21:45
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SilentD posted:I never said nothing can go wrong and they will welcome them as liberators. But you know, they don't have to stay. Turkey can easily roll anything in Syria that they consider a threat and get out. They can kill what they need to kill and Syria can't do much at all about it. This. Have we already forgotten the lessons of Constantinople? No army can stand before the Ottoman horde.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:48
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Metamucil posted:This. Have we already forgotten the lessons of Constantinople? No army can stand before the Ottoman horde. Will the gates of Vienna hold?
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Oct 3, 2012 22:00
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quote:Reuters: #Syria says it respects the sovereignty of neighboring countries, urges "states and governments" to act wisely and rationally
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Oct 3, 2012 22:03
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Brown Moses posted:They also said they consider the Turkish people killed "martyrs" So I guess it's safe to say the regime is fully backpedalling on this one? Are there any claims of the mortars having been FSA or something like that? How close to article 5 might we be?
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Oct 3, 2012 22:05
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HMDK posted:Will the gates of Vienna hold? Lucky for the Turks, the Poles are allies this time around. I'm worried about the Russians trying for another Crimean War and getting involved with NATO, which would suck on a whole new scale.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:07
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spacetimecontinuu posted:So I guess it's safe to say the regime is fully backpedalling on this one? Are there any claims of the mortars having been FSA or something like that? How close to article 5 might we be? Hard to say really, I don't think Turkey will be in any rush to get too deeply involved. I expect it'll be a gradual escalation after each incident, rather than any sudden declaration of war.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:08
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mllaneza posted:Lucky for the Turks, the Poles are allies this time around. I'm worried about the Russians trying for another Crimean War and getting involved with NATO, which would suck on a whole new scale. But the Poles will just ride at the incoming tanks on horseback and with outdated tech like lances.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:09
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Brown Moses posted:They also told Syria not to do it again. Am I the only one that finds this vaguely humorous? I mean, what did the meeting minutes look like? 15:15 - Everyone starts to shuffle in 15:17 - Everyone is in their seats 15:18 - Turkey tries to get their powerpoint sides up, but doesn't have internet access. 15:19 - Norway gives them a USB stick. 15:20 - Turkey finally gets the slides up. 15:21 - Luxembourg gets up to adjust the blinds so he can see the screen better. 15:22 - Estonia complains that now they can't see 15:25 - The blinds are fixed to everyone's satisfaction. 15:26 - Turkey brings up a slide with a map and pictures of the dead people. 15:27 - Everyone is horrified. 15:28 - Everyone agrees Syria shouldn't have done that. 15:30 - Everyone leaves. It just seems like a lot of effort to get that many ministers together for a meeting about something that everyone presumably agrees on.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:12
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How many legit causus belli's has turkey gained against syria now?
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Oct 3, 2012 22:13
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HMDK posted:But the Poles will just ride at the incoming tanks on horseback and with outdated tech like lances. That's a weird way of saying "Artillery-carrying bear battalion".
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Oct 3, 2012 22:16
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DarkCrawler posted:That's a weird way of saying "Artillery-carrying bear battalion". I'm infuriated and aroused.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:21
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Lawman 0 posted:How many legit causus belli's has turkey gained against syria now? First define 'legit' casus belli because the concept is all about political theatrics and propaganda. Governments don't start wars because a casus belli emerges, they make themselves a casus belli because they want to start a war. Eg. compare the evidence presented by US government against Iraq in 2003 to how much poo poo countries like Pakistan tolerate from USA.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:30
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If you think of the basically-guaranteed-outcomes of a war, that is, the war crimes 'n the rapes and the general disturbance and wrecked lives then I'm not sure you'll really ever get a "legit" war where the provocation is matched by the outcomes. Are you asking if Turkey can now invade Syria without the international community getting upset?
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Oct 3, 2012 22:32
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wins32767 posted:It just seems like a lot of effort to get that many ministers together for a meeting about something that everyone presumably agrees on. There's always a chance that they had talk that didn't get included in the statement. It was probably that ridiculous though. The Turkish government most likely just called the meeting as a way to demonstrate strong action to their citizens without actually having to go to war. Say the unlikely does occur and this escalates into Turkish military action. How likely is it for Russia to actually do something I wonder? Especially if other NATO nations end up supporting Turkey.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:37
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Nenonen posted:First define 'legit' casus belli because the concept is all about political theatrics and propaganda. Governments don't start wars because a casus belli emerges, they make themselves a casus belli because they want to start a war. Shooting down a fighter plane and lobbing mortars into a country are both legit.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:37
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wins32767 posted:Am I the only one that finds this vaguely humorous? I mean, what did the meeting minutes look like? This minute by minute description is hilarious especially with it being the member state names.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:42
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I'll be interested to see the Kurdish reaction if Turkey starts getting more actively involved in Syria, given the rather fraught relationship between the Kurds and Turkey.
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Oct 3, 2012 22:44
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drat, just found out about the attack.. I hope Turkey responds by annexing Syria, Greece, Serbia, Fyromia, Croatia, Lebanon, Bulgaristan, Israel, Iran, Cyprus, Egypt, Hungary, Slovenia, Albania, Saudi Arabia, Kosovo, Yemen, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tunisia, Morocco, Georgia, Libya, Germany, Rumania, Ukraine and the Czech Republic, and bring peace and prosperity to these god forsaken lands..
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Oct 3, 2012 22:47
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I think it's ultimately a nebulous concept. The world doesn't work like EUIII where a nice little popup tells you now have Casus Belli against a country.(buried beneath 50 messages of lvl 1 forts being completed)
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Oct 3, 2012 22:50
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lil sartre posted:drat, just found out about the attack.. I hope Turkey responds by annexing Syria, Greece, Serbia, Fyromia, Croatia, Lebanon, Bulgaristan, Israel, Iran, Cyprus, Egypt, Hungary, Slovenia, Albania, Saudi Arabia, Kosovo, Yemen, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tunisia, Morocco, Georgia, Libya, Germany, Rumania, Ukraine and the Czech Republic, and bring peace and prosperity to these god forsaken lands.. http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/419513/september-26-2012/obama-s-ottoman-empire (2 minutes in)
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Oct 3, 2012 22:51
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Hey Moses, any more info about the Yemeni officers captured in Syria?
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Oct 3, 2012 22:52
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Lawman 0 posted:How many legit causus belli's has turkey gained against syria now? Enough that the Turks are now responding with counter battery fire. If this is going to turn into a full on war, nows the time.
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Oct 3, 2012 23:02
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steve1 posted:Hey Moses, any more info about the Yemeni officers captured in Syria? Nothing beyond Yemen claiming they were just there training. It might end badly for them as Al-Nusra (who captured them) have just claimed responsibility for today's bombing in Aleppo and the exectuion of 20 soldiers I blogged about earlier in the month here.
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Oct 3, 2012 23:05
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wins32767 posted:Am I the only one that finds this vaguely humorous? I mean, what did the meeting minutes look like? I suppose it's a start. Don't expect anything to happen quickly in international relations. And I wouldn't say that this represents the limits of the Turkish response. I suspect there's a *lot* of backchannel communications going on right now about what sort of action is going to take and what would the US reaction to it be...
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Oct 3, 2012 23:07
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SilentD posted:Shooting down a fighter plane and lobbing mortars into a country are both legit. So Pakistan has a legit casus belli against USA? It doesn't work that way. A few deaths are not a legit excuse to start a war. More Turks die of smoking than of Syrian shells. P.S. Lobbing mortar bombs, not mortars.
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Oct 3, 2012 23:08
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mikemil828 posted:Enough that the Turks are now responding with counter battery fire. If this is going to turn into a full on war, nows the time. There have been so many groups standing on the sidelines, wailing and wringing their hands that SOMEBODY needed to do something about Syria (but not them), that having Turkey invade and depose Assad would solve too many peoples' problems to let this opportunity pass. If Turkey is willing to take it on and deal with the aftermath themselves, I can't see too many folks (including Russia) that wouldn't tacitly endorse it. There's always the chance it goes completely berserk, but since Syria was heading that way regardless, I suspect most interested parties are willing to let Erdogan get his war on and work to keep the mess contained.
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Oct 3, 2012 23:09
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Nenonen posted:So Pakistan has a legit casus belli against USA? It doesn't work that way. A few deaths are not a legit excuse to start a war. More Turks die of smoking than of Syrian shells. Over 100x more deaths in the US annually are attributable to smoking than the 9/11 casualty count, but that didn't stop us blowing the hell out of Afghanistan. A whole lot of countries probably have a legit casus belli against the US, but declaring war against America is basically suicide.
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Oct 3, 2012 23:11
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mikemil828 posted:Enough that the Turks are now responding with counter battery fire. If this is going to turn into a full on war, nows the time. I'm personally doubtful of any sort of war, but it's worth noting that CCNTurk is reporting that an authorization for cross-border operations will be under consideration by MPs tonight. quick edit: Turkey hasn't used artillery against foreign nations since Cyprus, it seems, and that paragon of excellent journalism Al Arabiya is reporting that a Syrian artillery base was one of the targets hit earlier. MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Oct 3, 2012 |
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Oct 3, 2012 23:13
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I know the Turkish general public was generally not too keen on getting involved in Syria. The deaths on the border might change that, but if not then Erdogan might get himself into some political trouble, especially if a lot of bodies start coming home from Syria. As for them just going in, deposing Assad, then leaving, that would basically set the country up for a fight over power and possible sectarian cleansing.
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Oct 3, 2012 23:14
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I should note the Turks might just do what they currently do in Iraq, which is the occasional cross border raid. Or they might just settle for clearing the Syrian army away from artillery range of the border.
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Oct 3, 2012 23:15
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