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Marquis de Pyro
Sep 25, 2006

Evil Prevails

Grozz Nuy posted:

This line of discussion creates a fun game!

Regular season stats, 2009-2013:

Player A: 7.0 YPA, 6.6 AYPA, 4.5 TD%, 2.9 INT%, 84.2 passer rating
Player B: 7.7 YPA, 7.5 AYPA, 4.3 TD%, 2.4 INT%, 92.2 passer rating

Player A: Matthew Stafford
Player B: Matt Schaub

I've banged this drum a lot before, but Stafford is dramatically overrated as a player because he racks up pretty counting stats from throwing the ball a billion times. In 2012, what is usually considered his worst year to date, he broke Drew Bledsoe's record for pass attempts in a season.

Not to mention that the thought experiment taking a Stafford-level talent at QB first overall (which we have no way of knowing if Bridgewater would be considered, yet) over Clowney presumes a Stafford-level outcome, which is fallacious to say the least.

It's worth pointing out that the reason Stafford has attempted so many passes is that before this season the Lions had 0 running game and an atrocious o-line and no one who can catch the ball besides Calvin Johnson. Even this year the WRs/TEs besides Megatron are comically inept.

I think it's very hard to judge him as a QB even now, having one transcendent talent that lets him get away with insane decisions and a bunch of garbage that drops perfect throws is a very bizarre mix.

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The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Grozz also said Stafford gets to play with the top WR in the NFL unlike Schaub, and I'm like, uhhhh is Andre Johnson chopped liver or something

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




Every report that I can find online has Teddy Bridgewater as either the #1 or #2 overall prospect. It's not we're settling for Geno Smith at #1 here...he's an elite prospect in his own right.

"STRENGTHS: Shows very good weight distribution and passing mechanics. Steps into the face of pressure and delivers, showing admirable toughness on each snap to bounce back after big hits.
Smooth mobility to extend and move the pocket with the quickness to pick up yards with his legs if needed. Impressive accuracy and touch on throws to all levels of the field.

Quick and efficient movements in his technique and does an excellent job with fakes, selling and focusing on the details. He is poised and with very good footwork in the pocket.

Mature and grounded individual who obviously loves football. Sharp-witted and retains information extremely well. Makes it look easy on the field and appears to "get it," elevating the play of those around him.

WEAKNESSES: Although quick, Bridgewater has a lower than ideal release point with the ball shooting passed his ear. Some durability concerns after all the hits he has taken over his career, specifically to his wrist and ankle.

Room to improve his touch and ball placement on downfield throws. Strong performances in big games including against Florida in the Sugar Bowl following the 2012 season, but played mediocre talent on a weekly basis in the American Athletic Conference.

COMPARES TO: Taller Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks - NFL analysts often say that if Russell Wilson was 3-4 inches taller, he would have been a first round pick. Well, that might hold true with Bridgewater who is a similar prospect as Wilson (smart, athletic, mature, accurate) except he is taller with more prototypical height for the NFL."

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1825122/teddy-bridgewater

Relentlessboredomm
Oct 15, 2006

It's Sic Semper Tyrannis. You said, "Ever faithful terrible lizard."
Bridgewater's completion percentage has never been lower than 64.5% and this year, at the end of the year it's 70%. His lowest YPA was 7.19 and this year it's 9.22. He's got a solid arm, acceptable size, and runs a pro style offense. He's significantly better than Geno as a prospect. He'd have been the third QB in the Luck/RG3 year but he's still awesome.

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx
:lol: I wouldn't compare him to Wilson except taller; Bridgewater looks like a stiff wind would knock him over compared to Wilson.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Parmesan Basil posted:

Lots of quality QB names on that list

Pretty strong refute to the good QB name theory. It appears it may work in college, but if Colt McCoy, Landry Jones, Kliff Kingsbury, Chase Holbrook, and even Brady Quinn can't make it in the NFL then names have no power.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
Nix declared.

Kind of had a down year but still the best DT talent in the draft. I'm worried about the meniscus tear though, since he was unbelievably fast for a guy with his build, which made him kinda special.

defiantgiant
Oct 17, 2004

YOU ARE RIDICULOUS now please stop running backward all the time kthx
So I'm hoping this is the year the Bears finally draft a backup running back (probably later in the draft) instead of handing a sizable contract to a vet who turns out to suck (see Bush, Michael; Barber, Marion; Taylor, Chester; Jones, Kevin.) Where do you guys think Andre Williams and/or Carlos Hyde end up going?

I think either of those guys could fill the short-yardage-hammer role that the Bears need to complement Forte, and if we could get one of them in the 3rd round or so, I'd pull the trigger immediately. I like Williams a lot more as a pure runner, but he might be gone earlier in the draft, and it doesn't hurt that Hyde is pretty good catching the ball.

Spring Break My Heart
Feb 15, 2012
I'd take Clowney over a Stafford pretty handily.

Marquis de Pyro posted:

It's worth pointing out that the reason Stafford has attempted so many passes is that before this season the Lions had 0 running game and an atrocious o-line and no one who can catch the ball besides Calvin Johnson. Even this year the WRs/TEs besides Megatron are comically inept.

I think it's very hard to judge him as a QB even now, having one transcendent talent that lets him get away with insane decisions and a bunch of garbage that drops perfect throws is a very bizarre mix.
The Detroit offensive line has been good-to-great for at least 3 years now.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

INSPECTAH DECK posted:

I'd take Clowney over a Stafford pretty handily.

Al Davis?

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.

Quest For Glory II posted:

Grozz also said Stafford gets to play with the top WR in the NFL unlike Schaub, and I'm like, uhhhh is Andre Johnson chopped liver or something

Andre Johnson is really good but Megatron is nearly uncoverable. I think it's fair to say that there's a reasonably substantial gap there.

oldfan
Jul 22, 2007

"Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Kirios posted:

Every report that I can find online has Teddy Bridgewater as either the #1 or #2 overall prospect. It's not we're settling for Geno Smith at #1 here...he's an elite prospect in his own right.

Most rankings through around or a little before this time last year had Geno Smith at similar heights, and Bridgewater's stock is taking the same late season dip that Smith's did last year (just pulling from one random place, he's dipped to 8 on ESPN's consensus Scouts Inc. board and 4th on Kiper's), even showing guys like Bortles and Carr and even Manziel ranking ahead of him in some circles. It's starting to look like that while this is a very deep QB class, perhaps comparable to 2011 in that respect, Bridgewater very well may not be The Guy depending on how the postseason process shakes out, and it may ultimately shake out that none of them are worthy of consideration ahead of Clowney, Matthews, Barr, etc.

eta: Oh I mentally blocked out the McCarron boomlet too. A lot of competition up there at the top QB spots!

oldfan fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Dec 7, 2013

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves

TheChirurgeon posted:

Is it too early to start talking about future superstars John O'Korn and Deonte Greenberry?

It's never too early

When was the last time Houston got a four star recruit before Greenberry?

Emanuel Collective
Jan 16, 2008

by Smythe
Jimmy Garoppolo is playing on ESPN3 right now, if you want to see the great unknown in action

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010

INSPECTAH DECK posted:

I'd take Clowney over a Stafford pretty handily.

The Detroit offensive line has been good-to-great for at least 3 years now.

I think the point was that the o-line couldn't run block for poo poo. And they weren't nearly as good in pass protection as they are this year.

SlipUp
Sep 30, 2006


stayin c o o l
Who's more valuable to the Lions: Stafford or Suh?

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Grozz Nuy posted:

Andre Johnson is really good but Megatron is nearly uncoverable. I think it's fair to say that there's a reasonably substantial gap there.
They're both hall of fame receivers and Andre Johnson for a long time was as dominant a player as Megatron.

defiantgiant
Oct 17, 2004

YOU ARE RIDICULOUS now please stop running backward all the time kthx

Quest For Glory II posted:

They're both hall of fame receivers and Andre Johnson for a long time was as dominant a player as Megatron.

Yeah, in his prime he was completely nuts. When people talk about how unstoppable Josh Gordon has been this season, a lot of them are comparing him to an early-career Andre Johnson.

Disillusionist
Sep 19, 2007

SlipUp posted:

Who's more valuable to the Lions: Stafford or Suh?

Stafford without a doubt.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

I still don't know that Andre isn't in his prime, I just think Schaub loving sucked this year. Last year Andre had 112 catches for 1600 yards, #2 behind Megatron. Even in a down year for him this year, he's still going to finish with 110+ catches for 1500+ yards, #2 in the league. The only thing that has really impacted his career are the injuries. But they haven't broken his body down so he may continue to produce for a long time to come.

In just a couple of years he'll pass Randy Moss and TO and be #2 all time in receiving yards behind Jerry Rice. Barring a catastrophic injury, that is definitely going to happen, because he's only 3,403 yards away and he's averaged 95 yards per game since 2007. That's across 7 fuckin seasons. Calvin Johnson's hit that average across 6 seasons so far.

The 7th Guest fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Dec 7, 2013

oldfan
Jul 22, 2007

"Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."
I don't know if we're replacing Stafford with Shaun Hill or a generic replacement in this scenario, but the gap between Stafford and Hill is a lot less than you'd think assuming Hill hasn't deteriorated significantly since his last significant time in 2010.

defiantgiant
Oct 17, 2004

YOU ARE RIDICULOUS now please stop running backward all the time kthx

Quest For Glory II posted:

I still don't know that Andre isn't in his prime, I just think Schaub loving sucked this year. Last year Andre had 112 catches for 1600 yards, #2 behind Megatron. Even in a down year for him this year, he's still going to finish with 110+ catches for 1500+ yards, #2 in the league. The only thing that has really impacted his career are the injuries. But they haven't broken his body down so he may continue to produce for a long time to come.

Well, I think he's a different receiver now than he used to be. I don't watch a ton of Texans games, but he seems like a really big Reggie Wayne: one of those guys who's lost a little bit of the speed he used to have, but made up for it by getting really savvy over the years at getting separation and making contested catches. But yeah, even if he's not physically in his prime any more, he's one of the 3 or 4 best receivers in the NFL.

If Bridgewater ends up on a team with Andre, plus Hopkins and a decent o-line, he could be productive in a hurry. Having a receiver who you can just hurl a jump ball to even when he's covered is a huge thing for a young QB: look at what it did for Stafford, and for Cutler when he was in Denver.

Arschlochkind
Mar 29, 2010

:stare:
There's a kind of odd thing where people know Andre is good, but then that knowledge sort of recedes into a fog and they forget just how good he is.
This season

Dre: 95 rec, 1277 yards, 13.4 ypc, 98.2 ypg, 5 TD
Megatron: 72 rec, 1299 yards, 18 ypc, 118 ypg, 12 TD

AJ has had Schaub, Yates, and Keenum throwing to him and hasn't shown signs of stopping what he does. All 5 of his TD catches this season are from Keenum. Andre is #15 all time in receptions and rising. He's #17 in receiving yards. #2 in rec yards per game. Injuries and bad QBs and poor coaching and lovely seasons haven't slowed him down.

Edit: I guess what I'm saying is motherfuckers act like they forgot about Dre.

Arschlochkind fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Dec 7, 2013

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx

Arschlochkind posted:

Edit: I guess what I'm saying is motherfuckers act like they forgot about Dre.

PFF has him as the #2 wideout in the league this year, too.

Brian Fellows
May 29, 2003
I'm Brian Fellows

jeffersonlives posted:

I don't know if we're replacing Stafford with Shaun Hill or a generic replacement in this scenario, but the gap between Stafford and Hill is a lot less than you'd think assuming Hill hasn't deteriorated significantly since his last significant time in 2010.

I hate it when people make this claim. Hill is exactly what you want from your backup; someone that can come in and not-lose the game for you, and even make some plays to win if necessary, while the starter is down. But as much as people play the "Well all Stafford does is throw it to Calvin Johnson, he's not that good card," that is EXACTLY what Shaun Hill does- come in and chuck it to Calvin every single time. Stafford makes multiple reads now (didn't used to) and is capable of taking what the defense gives him instead of just defaulting to Big Play CJ, which Hill never really did when he got PT.

Your wording is vague (gap is smaller than people think), but the difference between Hill and Stafford is huge. I can usually tell when to start ignoring friends' opinions on football - it's when they mention "IT'S TIME TO BRING IN SHAUN HILL!" This is NEVER the right option unless Stafford is legitimately hurt and trying to play through it.

Even if you think Shaun Hill is smarter, or if you're of the opinion that you want him to come in and chuck the ball to Calvin more than Stafford is, at the very least you're losing 20 yards of air travel capability if you pull Stafford for Hill. Say what you will about his decision making, but his cannon is unbelievable. And there's no way Hill is getting any kind of practice with the first team.

*I do love that Hill looks like a fat out of shape guy that just drank a couple of beers, put on a uniform and said "PUT ME IN COACH." I heart Shaun Hill.

oldfan
Jul 22, 2007

"Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Brian Fellows posted:

I hate it when people make this claim. Hill is exactly what you want from your backup; someone that can come in and not-lose the game for you, and even make some plays to win if necessary, while the starter is down. But as much as people play the "Well all Stafford does is throw it to Calvin Johnson, he's not that good card," that is EXACTLY what Shaun Hill does- come in and chuck it to Calvin every single time. Stafford makes multiple reads now (didn't used to) and is capable of taking what the defense gives him instead of just defaulting to Big Play CJ, which Hill never really did when he got PT.

Your wording is vague (gap is smaller than people think), but the difference between Hill and Stafford is huge. I can usually tell when to start ignoring friends' opinions on football - it's when they mention "IT'S TIME TO BRING IN SHAUN HILL!" This is NEVER the right option unless Stafford is legitimately hurt and trying to play through it.

Even if you think Shaun Hill is smarter, or if you're of the opinion that you want him to come in and chuck the ball to Calvin more than Stafford is, at the very least you're losing 20 yards of air travel capability if you pull Stafford for Hill. Say what you will about his decision making, but his cannon is unbelievable. And there's no way Hill is getting any kind of practice with the first team.

*I do love that Hill looks like a fat out of shape guy that just drank a couple of beers, put on a uniform and said "PUT ME IN COACH." I heart Shaun Hill.

Stafford's a good quarterback and he's better than Shaun Hill, but that's not the discussion. Shaun Hill is also putting up really pretty counting stats in that Lions offense, not quite as pretty for various reasons that are the basic reasons why Stafford is better than Hill to begin with, but he's a capable passer who probably should have been an eight or ten year starter had he gotten cleaner breaks instead of getting stuck in that dreaded "you're about the 20th or 25th best quarterback in the league and no longer a prospect so nobody actually wants to play you" area. Case in point: Shaun Hill's 2010 prorated to a full season is about 4200 yards and 25 touchdowns. That isn't quite what Stafford does over a full season and it doesn't mean that Shaun Hill's a better player than Stafford - he's not, Stafford is able to maintain similar to a bit better rates at higher usage because he's a more gifted passer - but the concept that every team that doesn't have a Designated Franchise Quarterback is consigned to running out Geno Smith and Blaine Gabbert type atrocities is silly. Some teams choose to run out really bad, sub-replacement level quarterbacks because of poor team design or sunk draft costs that the GM or coach won't admit or whatever. Shaun Hill is just fine and he won't cripple your offense and those sorts of things.

So yes if all else was equal, I'd at least think about taking Suh and Shaun Hill over Stafford and Andre Fluellen, and if I was convinced about Suh's consistency in the run game and makeup it would probably be a stronger lean in that direction. I don't think it's an obvious answer to take Stafford just because he's the quarterback and you just always take the quarterback, all of this is about asset allocation and relative importance and replacement quality and all of those stupid things.

Wanvig
Sep 8, 2003

TheChirurgeon posted:

Is it too early to start talking about future superstars John O'Korn and Deonte Greenberry?

Not too early for Greenberry, that kid's a stud on the field. And maybe off the field, I don't know.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Man, that argument looked a hell of a lot stupider when I was confusing Shaun Hill with Shaun King.

Daric
Dec 23, 2007

Shawn:
Do you really want to know my process?

Lassiter:
Absolutely.

Shawn:
Well it starts with a holla! and ends with a Creamsicle.

Wanvig posted:

Not too early for Greenberry, that kid's a stud on the field. And maybe off the field, I don't know.

Greenberry figured out a lot in the offseason. He expected to come in and dominate everyone and when that didn't happen he had to reevaluate. He's gotten his ego in check and it's obviously helped. He's a cool guy off the field though. He's had dinner at my house a couple of times and he's always very polite.

Wanvig
Sep 8, 2003

Daric posted:

Greenberry figured out a lot in the offseason. He expected to come in and dominate everyone and when that didn't happen he had to reevaluate. He's gotten his ego in check and it's obviously helped. He's a cool guy off the field though. He's had dinner at my house a couple of times and he's always very polite.

Since it looks like you're in the know (more so than me, at least) any idea how his ankles/feet are doing? I heard on the radio he had both ankles taped during the Cincy game, and then he sat out the SMU game.

Also, do you need a new best friend or anything? Where can I send my resume?

Daric
Dec 23, 2007

Shawn:
Do you really want to know my process?

Lassiter:
Absolutely.

Shawn:
Well it starts with a holla! and ends with a Creamsicle.

Wanvig posted:

Since it looks like you're in the know (more so than me, at least) any idea how his ankles/feet are doing? I heard on the radio he had both ankles taped during the Cincy game, and then he sat out the SMU game.

Also, do you need a new best friend or anything? Where can I send my resume?

My sister is a sports management major and she became friends with Trevon Stewart before he came to the school. She became friends with most of the players in her grade through him so they come over for dinner every once in a while. Hell, Trevon came over for my family's thanksgiving last year because they couldn't go home.

I'll ask Greenberry tomorrow but I'm sure he'll be fine for the bowl game. He did twist his ankle a bit during the Cincy game and had a boot on for the SMU game but it was just precautionary. He'll be fine.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



I guess the problem people say is they don't know they are getting Stafford, so they'd rather have Clowney. But this argument is flawed because you don't know if you are getting Julius Peppers or Vernon Gholston. :v:

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

Sataere posted:

I guess the problem people say is they don't know they are getting Stafford, so they'd rather have Clowney. But this argument is flawed because you don't know if you are getting Julius Peppers or Vernon Gholston. :v:

Or they could be getting a Stafford in Clowney

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
Clowney reminds me a lot of Carlos Dunlap. All world prospect, huge, made highlight reel plays during their sophomore year, phoned it in junior year, fell in the draft process. Of course Dunlap is turning into a perennial pro bowler, and that'll probably happen to Clowney too because GMs are stupid and care about things like entourages.

Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002
Clowney likes to get tipsy in gas station stores?

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

AAA DOLFAN posted:

Clowney likes to get tipsy in gas station stores?

Who doesn't?

Aniki
Mar 21, 2001

Wouldn't fit...
Are there any corners who could sneak into the top 10 this year? Also, how would Anthony Barr fair in a 4-3? He'd presumably still be a linebacker, but it seems like after Clowney most of the top D prospects this year are geared more towards 3-4? I know that Nix from Notre Dame declared and as much as I want a dominating NT, I'm a bit weary of a 340 pound guy with knee problems. It will be interesting to see who rises into the top half of the draft.

TheBizzness
Oct 5, 2004

Reign on me.
I'm starting to think linebacker might be more of a need for Miami than Oline.

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.

Aniki posted:

Are there any corners who could sneak into the top 10 this year? Also, how would Anthony Barr fair in a 4-3? He'd presumably still be a linebacker, but it seems like after Clowney most of the top D prospects this year are geared more towards 3-4? I know that Nix from Notre Dame declared and as much as I want a dominating NT, I'm a bit weary of a 340 pound guy with knee problems. It will be interesting to see who rises into the top half of the draft.

Wasn't Floyd playing nose for a while? What happened with that?

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Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002

TheBizzness posted:

I'm starting to think linebacker might be more of a need for Miami than Oline.

Our best one is Koa Misi. We really have no reason to NOT put Dion Jordan at WOLB and get rid of Wheeler.

Wheeler is a great pass rusher but thats about it. Hes very aggressive vs the run but he's blocked too easily

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