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namesake posted:^^^It's bad enough if they get that far though. Of course UKIP should be fought every step of the way, and I do think talking about some of their very right-wing anti-progressive tax pro-employer policy is a good way to go, but it should be reassuring, and remembered, that they in no way look like they're going to become a significant and lasting force.
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Apr 27, 2014 17:28
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Alecto posted:Of course UKIP should be fought every step of the way, and I do think talking about some of their very right-wing anti-progressive tax pro-employer policy is a good way to go, but it should be reassuring, and remembered, that they in no way look like they're going to become a significant and lasting force. Doesn't matter, they pull the overton window and the general public narrative further to the right. Even if the Tories don't end up pandering to the more extreme conservative and neoliberal elements (they will), with Labour tagging along a few paces behind, they're encouraging and normalising some really nasty attitudes and actions. This is a party that gets a regular media platform, even gets called the UK's 'fourth political party', but instead of being called out on their (lack of) manifesto and concrete policies, they get to vaguely waffle and talk complete poo poo about everything. It's like when someone gets a bit drunk and starts letting fly with all their lovely beliefs and prejudices, except they get to do it as an authority on national TV, dressed in a suit while people nod sagely and the major parties and major media all pay lip service to these ideas. It's poisonous
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Apr 27, 2014 17:39
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baka kaba posted:Doesn't matter, they pull the overton window and the general public narrative further to the right. Even if the Tories don't end up pandering to the more extreme conservative and neoliberal elements (they will), with Labour tagging along a few paces behind, they're encouraging and normalising some really nasty attitudes and actions. But they are at least only talking about immigration and the EU, the rest is rhetoric. If they talked about anything more then there'd be something easy to attack them on. This both protects UKIP, but also means they're only influencing immigration and EU debate. It's obviously terrible that they're doing this much, that they're normalising racism and xenophobia, but at least they're not also whipping up a lot of support for right-wing economics, and I don't think they'll be able to. There is the danger that the Tories misread the situation and lurch to the right on all issues and that instead of this leading them to get electorally punished, they instead take the centre with them. But, that is first of all imo not the most likely outcome, but relies on the entire left being an absolute dead fish. I'm not sure that Labour can get away with letting that happen again, either they summon the courage to say populist, leftist things like 'actually, the rich should pay more tax', or they face a UKIP-esque uprising of their own. If not then I'm leaving; can't watch the '80s happen all over again.
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Apr 27, 2014 17:51
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Alecto posted:Of course UKIP should be fought every step of the way, and I do think talking about some of their very right-wing anti-progressive tax pro-employer policy is a good way to go, but it should be reassuring, and remembered, that they in no way look like they're going to become a significant and lasting force. Why do they not look like they're going to become a significant and lasting force? The political views they espouse are extremely popular with the British public and have been deliberately excluded from the mainstream political sphere for a long time.
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Apr 27, 2014 18:19
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Incredible post/avatar combo there.
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Apr 27, 2014 18:28
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Tolth posted:Why do they not look like they're going to become a significant and lasting force? The political views they espouse are extremely popular with the British public and have been deliberately excluded from the mainstream political sphere for a long time. They have only one effective spokesman of those views though. If Farage suddenly died of a heart attack, it is inconceivable that the party could continue in any meaningful way without his cult of personality to fall back on. So far they've lost more notable public figures (e.g. Godfrey Bloom) than they've gained, which doesn't bode well for the future of the party. There's also the incredible vagueness of their actual platform, which barely extends beyond a single issue.
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Apr 27, 2014 18:30
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Tolth posted:Why do they not look like they're going to become a significant and lasting force? The political views they espouse are extremely popular with the British public and have been deliberately excluded from the mainstream political sphere for a long time. They won't get any seats due to FPTP. Which is the first nail in the coffin. No results. In marginal constituencies with a large middle class, UKIP makes it easier for Labour to win by siphoning off Tory voters. If a Labour wins then the Tory voters won't make the same mistake at the next election. In marginal constituencies with a large working class, UKIP makes it slightly easier for the tories to win by siphoning off Labour voters. If a Tory wins then the Labour voters won't make the same mistake at the next election. The former is a much bigger problem, because UKIP still takes far more votes from the Tories http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/08/ukip-is-taking-six-times-as-many-votes-from-the-tories-as-it-is-from-labour/ UKIP's only (westminster) future is securing enough of the vote to put proportional representation on the media agenda. twoot fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Apr 27, 2014 |
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Apr 27, 2014 18:31
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twoot posted:UKIP's only (westminster) future is securing enough of the vote to put proportional representation on the media agenda.
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Apr 27, 2014 18:41
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Alecto posted:But they are at least only talking about immigration and the EU, the rest is rhetoric. If they talked about anything more then there'd be something easy to attack them on. This both protects UKIP, but also means they're only influencing immigration and EU debate. It's obviously terrible that they're doing this much, that they're normalising racism and xenophobia, but at least they're not also whipping up a lot of support for right-wing economics, and I don't think they'll be able to. There is the danger that the Tories misread the situation and lurch to the right on all issues and that instead of this leading them to get electorally punished, they instead take the centre with them. But, that is first of all imo not the most likely outcome, but relies on the entire left being an absolute dead fish. I'm not sure that Labour can get away with letting that happen again, either they summon the courage to say populist, leftist things like 'actually, the rich should pay more tax', or they face a UKIP-esque uprising of their own. If not then I'm leaving; can't watch the '80s happen all over again. Not only do they actually support right-wing economics (MY TAX was one of their intial key issues), this constant framing of immigrants as the cause of the country's economic problems gives the government cover to pursue right-wing policies. Instead of correctly looking at the decision to inflict austerity and pursue deficit reduction at all costs, politicians can invoke the spectre of immigration and the media run with it. All analysis and criticism is out the window, all blame is laid elsewhere. It's used in pretty much every public sphere: NHS, health tourists!! Welfare, benefit tourists!! Housing, too many immigrants! Crime, European criminal gangs!! Employment, too many immigrant workers! Education, too many immigrant children taking school places!! Justice, can't even deport convicted immigrants!! And on it goes. And so the EU is spun as forcing all these problems on people in the UK, a set of agreements that need to be renegotiated - which in reality is cover for rolling back such horrors as human rights legislation, worker protections, and things like finance regulation. Sure UKIP aren't explicitly promoting right-wing economics, but then they don't need to
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Apr 27, 2014 18:45
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Kegluneq posted:Which could lead to the amusing scenario in which Farage is forced to declare he Agrees With Nick, dealing the final deathblow to both parties. they didn't campaign particularly vocally on it, but UKIP were officially on the Yes side of the AV referendum (with the caveat that they'd prefer PR). UKIP members were banned from campaigning for No.
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Apr 27, 2014 18:58
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Cerv posted:yeah, but that's already happened. Clegg and the LDs will be dead as a political force before Farage and UKIP, unless the next election really is disastrous for the latter (at which point they will burn out together).
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Apr 27, 2014 19:01
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Kegluneq posted:Clegg and the LDs will be dead as a political force before Farage and UKIP, unless the next election really is disastrous for the latter (at which point they will burn out together).
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Apr 27, 2014 19:05
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Gorn Myson posted:Where are these from? I vaguely remember some posts a long while back of Nigel Farage posters done in the style of fascist propaganda, but I've never been able to find them again. They're being posted fairly unironically on 4chans /pol/ board. Its essentially the bizzaro world version of this thread where everything in the UK is terrible because its too left wing. I dont know if anyone remembers the GBS "Neo-reactionary" thread, but its basically filled with that kind of idiot.
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Apr 27, 2014 19:08
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Kegluneq posted:But if they're going to grow as a party, it's something they'd have to return to. sadly i think no-one's returning to electoral reform for at least a decade. more likely UKIP will do like the greens and concentrate on particular seats to build a presence
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Apr 27, 2014 19:10
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Zero Gravitas posted:They're being posted fairly unironically on 4chans /pol/ board. Its essentially the bizzaro world version of this thread where everything in the UK is terrible because its too left wing. I dont know if anyone remembers the GBS "Neo-reactionary" thread, but its basically filled with that kind of idiot. /pol/ has been rushing the UK subreddits recently. The number of kippers who have since come out of the woodwork (ie /r/worldnews) has been quite something.
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Apr 27, 2014 19:12
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twoot posted:/pol/ has been rushing the UK subreddits recently. The number of kippers who have since come out of the woodwork (ie /r/worldnews) has been quite something. Yeah its been pretty lovely of late.
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Apr 27, 2014 19:15
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Cerv posted:sadly i think no-one's returning to electoral reform for at least a decade. more likely UKIP will do like the greens and concentrate on particular seats to build a presence I wouldn't be so certain. I think that part of the reason people were so disinterested in AV was that in the past, FPTP has always produced results that were broadly in line with what you'd expect from a simple vote count - the party with the most votes got the most MPs, that with the second most got the second most MPs, and so on. In 2015, we could see UKIP take twice as many votes as the Lib Dems but get no representation in Parliament at all while the Lib Dems end up in government with several MPs. A self-evidently broken result like that could create a lot of pressure for change very quickly. LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Apr 27, 2014 |
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Apr 27, 2014 19:39
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Giving us a good electoral system filled with terrible people. Better than a terrible system filled with terrible people I suppose.
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Apr 27, 2014 19:45
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baka kaba posted:Not only do they actually support right-wing economics (MY TAX was one of their intial key issues), this constant framing of immigrants as the cause of the country's economic problems gives the government cover to pursue right-wing policies. Instead of correctly looking at the decision to inflict austerity and pursue deficit reduction at all costs, politicians can invoke the spectre of immigration and the media run with it. All analysis and criticism is out the window, all blame is laid elsewhere. What I think's a bit different about UKIP's immigration attitude to the right's general propensity to blame the faults of capitalism on immigrants is that they've tied it entirely to the EU. They face the problem of after the referendum, if we vote to stay, they can no longer talk about any of their current policy, including immigration, because they said the only way to change any of it was to leave the EU, and we just voted to stay. If we vote to leave then they've said everything will suddenly be wonderful, and when it isn't they'll struggle to get traction again. 'You said the EU was the source of all our problems why should we believe you now blah blah'. However, I'm probably underestimating people's appetite for immigrant bashing and the 'left's' continuing inability to properly attribute causes to effects.
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Apr 27, 2014 20:00
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LemonDrizzle posted:I wouldn't be so certain. I think that part of the reason people were so disinterested in AV was that in the past, FPTP has always produced results that were broadly in line with what you'd expect from a simple vote count - the party with the most votes got the most MPs, that with the second most got the second most MPs, and so on. In 2015, we could see UKIP take twice as many votes as the Lib Dems but get no representation in Parliament at all while the Lib Dems end up in government with several MPs. A self-evidently broken result like that could create a lot of pressure for change very quickly. That is complete crap. FPTP only produced results largely in line with what you'd expect at points where there were only 2 credible national parties. In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote (vs Labour's 27%) but 11 seats vs Labour's 261. If that didn't set the majority of the population to clamour for AV, then whatever UKIP manage to do won't.
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Apr 27, 2014 20:40
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tooterfish posted:Incredible post/avatar combo there. Thank you. Kegluneq posted:They have only one effective spokesman of those views though. If Farage suddenly died of a heart attack, it is inconceivable that the party could continue in any meaningful way without his cult of personality to fall back on. So far they've lost more notable public figures (e.g. Godfrey Bloom) than they've gained, which doesn't bode well for the future of the party. The point about Farage's cult of personality is interesting - when I hear people ranting about UKIP, I don't hear them base it on Farage all that often and I'm skeptical about the degree to which that is true. It's a fair point though; I do wonder how many other charismatic fascists the UK actually has, Griffin for example is a completely charmless turd. The thing about their platform being vague is only true from the perspective of someone with a semi-reasoned political point of view, which usually isn't true of UKIP voters. twoot posted:The former is a much bigger problem, because UKIP still takes far more votes from the Tories http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/08/ukip-is-taking-six-times-as-many-votes-from-the-tories-as-it-is-from-labour/ I broadly agree with you - However, what about the possibility of UKIP winning even a trivial number of seats and entering into a coalition with the tories? ookiimarukochan posted:That is complete crap. FPTP only produced results largely in line with what you'd expect at points where there were only 2 credible national parties. It's almost as if Britain's pretense of democracy is a total sham and the solution in practice is increasingly obviously to CENSORED TO AVOID GCHQ SENDING SA A NOTICE. Tolth fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Apr 27, 2014 |
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Apr 27, 2014 21:34
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Tolth posted:Thank you. I was trying to find the article earlier, but Im sure I read that Farage actually polls lower than his party, so the cult of Nigel is more a media creation. He makes good telly.
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Apr 27, 2014 21:48
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Tolth posted:I broadly agree with you - However, what about the possibility of UKIP winning even a trivial number of seats and entering into a coalition with the tories? In a general election Farage might be able to win a seat - if all the voters for other parties forego tactical voting against him. It would really depend on the profile of the constituency he decided to run in. His best bet would be going after a wealthy constituency on the cusp of being a marginal and a weak Tory nobody incumbent. No other UKIP candidate has a chance in a general. They might be able to legitimise some other candidates with by-election wins. The history doesn't look too good for them retaining them though.
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Apr 27, 2014 21:56
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Tolth posted:I broadly agree with you - However, what about the possibility of UKIP winning even a trivial number of seats and entering into a coalition with the tories? 50% of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they'd be less likely to vote Conservative if they formed any sort of pact with UKIP, 25% of whom would definitely not vote Conservative in that event. Anybody who allies with UKIP loses the middle-class centrists, which is just one of the reasons why UKIP won't have direct power, they can only hope to affect the debate and positioning of other parties.
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Apr 27, 2014 22:11
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Serotonin posted:I was trying to find the article earlier, but Im sure I read that Farage actually polls lower than his party, so the cult of Nigel is more a media creation. He makes good telly. Airplane Crash Dot Jaypeg. (also I appreciate your name, I have the structure of Serotonin as a tattoo.) twoot posted:In a general election Farage might be able to win a seat - if all the voters for other parties forego tactical voting against him. It would really depend on the profile of the constituency he decided to run in. His best bet would be going after a wealthy constituency on the cusp of being a marginal and a weak Tory nobody incumbent. No other UKIP candidate has a chance in a general. I think you're probably right - short of them getting incredibly lucky in a few very split constituencies they don't have enough specific pull in any one place to beat FPTP. Alecto posted:50% of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they'd be less likely to vote Conservative if they formed any sort of pact with UKIP, 25% of whom would definitely not vote Conservative in that event. Anybody who allies with UKIP loses the middle-class centrists, which is just one of the reasons why UKIP won't have direct power, they can only hope to affect the debate and positioning of other parties. In all seriousness, do you think the perception of the party remains identical in the eyes of the average Tory voter? Those figures are massively reassuring but I'm not sure how different the results would be if you ran the same poll now.
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Apr 27, 2014 22:51
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Tolth posted:In all seriousness, do you think the perception of the party remains identical in the eyes of the average Tory voter? Those figures are massively reassuring but I'm not sure how different the results would be if you ran the same poll now. Well, the poll was from last year just before the local elections, I think, so certainly during their ongoing hype-phase but perhaps before some of the more recent detoxification. I think actual Conservatives would be able to be brought around to the idea of a pact, but the people who flit between Labour and the Conservatives every few elections would be scared away. Of all the things UKIP are called and seen as, moderate isn't one of them. The traditional election deciders just want economic stability, for the most part. I think a Tory-UKIP government would be seen as too radical and a Labour majority of Lib-Lab pact preferable, and UKIP and the Tories share too much of a base for them to get a majority without centrists.
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Apr 27, 2014 23:21
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twoot posted:/pol/ has been rushing the UK subreddits recently. The number of kippers who have since come out of the woodwork (ie /r/worldnews) has been quite something. Zero Gravitas posted:Yeah its been pretty lovely of late. Never go on Reddit
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Apr 27, 2014 23:47
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I just had a look at The UKIP 2014 local manifesto and it's pretty, er, brief. Highlight the first: UKIP 2014 Local Manifesto posted:Here are just some of the ways we will save your money: ??? allow racism something you can't do if you're a local councillor allow the unregulated dumping of hazardous waste burn more coal and rely further on foreign gas an oil imports privatise poo poo Highlight the second: UKIP 2014 Local Manifesto posted:6 UKIP PRIORITIES
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Apr 28, 2014 00:11
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Oh look, the government is handing over more confidential personal information to private companies. This time it's The National Pupil Database.http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2014-04/25/national-pupil-database posted:Data relating to every school pupil in England is now available for use by private companies thanks to a change in legislation implemented last year. Boswarva's blog post on the issue from last year: http://mapgubbins.tumblr.com/post/54398089692/exploiting-the-national-pupil-database-consultation I know I'm a privacy nut, but I can't be the only one. Right?
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Apr 28, 2014 02:42
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Zero Gravitas posted:They're being posted fairly unironically on 4chans /pol/ board. Its essentially the bizzaro world version of this thread where everything in the UK is terrible because its too left wing. I dont know if anyone remembers the GBS "Neo-reactionary" thread, but its basically filled with that kind of idiot. 4chan is right wing? How the gently caress does that work? They'd be first up against the wall.
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Apr 28, 2014 03:10
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Regarde Aduck posted:4chan is right wing? How the gently caress does that work? They'd be first up against the wall. Being able to post anonymously makes for very brave racists.
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Apr 28, 2014 03:12
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Regarde Aduck posted:4chan is right wing? How the gently caress does that work? They'd be first up against the wall. 4chan is all over the place and cares more about the existence of casual videogames and making apologia for lolicon than it does about politics, but thanks to the anonymity a lot of racists went there too. It got so bad they made the /pol/ board as a quarantine zone to keep shitposting out, and of course it attracted a shitload of racists and other unsavory types. Hilariously enough, much more recently moot created a new board which is itself a quarantine board for a particular group of /pol/ posters. The group so utterly horrendous and without merit that even the rabid racist pricks on the Internet don't want them around? Randroids. The new board is /biz/ and it's where all the libertarians go.
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Apr 28, 2014 04:42
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Implied Consent posted:Oh look, the government is handing over more confidential personal information to private companies. This time it's The National Pupil Database.
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Apr 28, 2014 06:39
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Paul.Power posted:How on earth did that one get under the radar? I'd've thought the ARE CHILDREN brigade (Plus a large number of sensible people, but the ARE CHILDREN brigade get heard) would be all over it. Yeah but private companies and GUBMINT. Which one is ARE CHILDREN's data going to be safer with? Hmmmmm?
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Apr 28, 2014 08:03
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ookiimarukochan posted:That is complete crap. FPTP only produced results largely in line with what you'd expect at points where there were only 2 credible national parties. I don't think the situations are comparable. For a start, the Alliance came third in the popular vote and got the third highest number of MPs, so in that sense FPTP did produce the expected result; with UKIP, we're potentially looking at the third place party getting no parliamentary representation at all while the fourth place party ends up in government and even the fifth place party gets one MP. Second, alternative voting systems weren't on the radar to anything like the same extent in 1983 as they are today.
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Apr 28, 2014 08:09
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Zero Gravitas posted:They're being posted fairly unironically on 4chans /pol/ board. Its essentially the bizzaro world version of this thread where everything in the UK is terrible because its too left wing. I dont know if anyone remembers the GBS "Neo-reactionary" thread, but its basically filled with that kind of idiot. Whereas the truth is actually somewhere in the middle.
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Apr 28, 2014 09:13
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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad posted:Highlight the second: The reason we don't have mass house building - well, one reason - is the rampant nimbyism that the UKIP try to appeal to.
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Apr 28, 2014 09:37
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Oh when your dear old gran who wants things to be like in The Good Old Days When You Could Have Milk In Tea But Can't Any More In Case You Upset A Pakistani (it's political correctness gone mad Stew) who votes for UKIP realises her grandchildren are absolutely hosed it's going to be such a great moment of 
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Apr 28, 2014 09:42
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No discussion about the new signing on rules?quote:Jobless must sign on every day: Government to dock money from long-term unemployed if they do not comply Sorry if you live further than walking distance from the nearest jobcentre, have no money to get there and actually want to spend your time doing something other than queuing up to see some Jobcentre advisor who couldn't give less of a poo poo and is now massively, massively overworked, them's the rules. I know it doesn't seem fair, but you also have the option of 6 months forced labour or a training course that doesn't exist, jump to it prole, hurry up and will yourself back into work. Ugh it's all so poo poo. Loonytoad Quack fucked around with this message at 10:33 on Apr 28, 2014 |
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Apr 28, 2014 10:31
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With a new month coming up can I bagsy the new OP? I want to do a neo liberal one for maximum lolz like they did over at the ozpol tread a few months back.
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