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Who will you be voting for?
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vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011
Why do 'reduce auto insurance rates by 15%' and 'Prevent unfair price increases for natural gas consumers' not get expenditure numbers? Does the NDP think they can just mandate that those numbers don't go up and the companies are just going to say "okay" and cut their prices, rather than the policy including some kind of government expenditure, either in the form of a subsidy to consumers or a subsidy to corporations?

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vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Helsing posted:

So the Liberals are calling for an increase in personal income taxes for people making over $150,000 while the NDP will leave person income taxes untouched. That is a pretty stark reversal from 2011 when Horwath at least called for higher taxes on people making over $250,000.

On corporate taxes the Liberals want to keep them where they are while the NDP calls for "a modest increase in the general corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 12.5%". Also the NDP will decrease corporate taxes on small businesses from 4.5% to 3%.

The NDP want to put $29 billion into a dedicated transit fund. The Liberals are saying they'll invest "$130 billion in total for infrastructure projects over the next 10 years" including a plan "that will dedicate two new funds to fight congestion and invest in roads, bridges and transit, totalling $29 billion."

The NDP also says that they'll "boost transit investment by $350 million annually to kick start priority transit projects" and they specifically say their priorities are "the Downtown Relief Line, Scarborough transit, Clean Trains Now on the air-rail link, all-day two-way GO train services to Kitchener-Waterloo, and year-round daily GO train service to St. Catharines and Niagara Falls."

The Liberals want to set up a new pension plan, the NDP just says that they'll invest in re-training for workers over 55: "Our plan tops up a federal-provincial cost-shared program that helps unemployed workers aged 55 to 64, to enhance programs and services that increase older workers' ability to find employment."

Oh yeah and the NDP is going to lock in tuition at its totally affordable 2014 level :rolleyes: Really bold move there.

There's a couple nice things about hiring a few more nurses and creating 1,400 more beds for long term care but this is a pretty pathetic platform.

Don't forget the minimum wage. Or any wage, for that matter. There is literally no mention of 'wage' in the platform, while 'job' gets 17. Apparently as long as we're all employed (thanks to job creators of course) it could be at $10/hour McJobs and it's all okay.

The funny thing is that the most successful social democratic countries (Scandinavia) run their taxation system in the reverse of the way our Canadian social democrats do: they have very high personal taxes but relatively low corporate taxes (bearing in mind that all their taxes would be considered prohibitively high compared to North American levels), designed to bring corporations into the country but then get a lot of their money anyway from the salaries they pay their employees. On taxation policy Wynne's platform is closer to that model than Horwath's in this election.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
I didn't think it would be possible to come up with a lamer title than 2011's "Plan For Affordable Change" but I think "Plan that Makes Sense" may have done it.

JohnnyCanuck
May 28, 2004

Strong And/Or Free

Helsing posted:

The NDP also says that they'll "boost transit investment by $350 million annually to kick start priority transit projects" and they specifically say their priorities are "the Downtown Relief Line, Scarborough transit, Clean Trains Now on the air-rail link, all-day two-way GO train services to Kitchener-Waterloo, and year-round daily GO train service to St. Catharines and Niagara Falls."

Nothing about Ottawa or Eastern Ontario at all, huh? Figures. :P

HackensackBackpack
Aug 20, 2007

Who needs a house out in Hackensack? Is that all you get for your money?

JohnnyCanuck posted:

Nothing about Ottawa or Eastern Ontario at all, huh? Figures. :P

Hell, even Hudak said Ottawa and Kitchener-Waterloo LRT would continue under a P.C. government, even though he's scrapping trains in the GTHA.

Jimbozig
Sep 30, 2003

I like sharing and ice cream and animals.
So, uh, why are the ONDP and OLP two different parties at this point? They seem to be occupying the same ideological ground, so to speak. I mean, they are proposing slightly different programs, but I find it hard to believe that either party would be much against the milquetoast slightly-left-leaning policies the other party proposes. Why even bother splitting the centre-left vote? Just merge already.


Edit: Although I guess with the Sun ad and all that, maybe Horwath's plan is to start trying to split the PC vote instead??

St. Dogbert
Mar 17, 2011

vyelkin posted:

I have to say that I'm resigned to hoping it's a trainwreck because I really, really don't want vote splitting to hand Hudak a government.

So... Mission accomplished?

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



vyelkin posted:

Don't forget the minimum wage. Or any wage, for that matter. There is literally no mention of 'wage' in the platform, while 'job' gets 17. Apparently as long as we're all employed (thanks to job creators of course) it could be at $10/hour McJobs and it's all okay.

http://www.ontariondp.ca/issues

There you go, a mention of wages. Specifically that Hudak would drive them down using tired, old ideas (not specified).

Whimsy
Jan 8, 2001
She picked a title that invokes Common Sense Revolution. Good job!

...gently caress.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

eXXon posted:

http://www.ontariondp.ca/issues

There you go, a mention of wages. Specifically that Hudak would drive them down using tired, old ideas (not specified).

quote:

Tim Hudak’s plan isn’t much different. On top of his pie-in-the-sky “million jobs” plan, he would drive your wages down using tired, old ideas that have failed for years. Hudak's Conservatives voted against Andrea Horwath’s tax credit for job creators.

I like how she can't even attack Hudak for more than two sentences without swinging back into JOB CREATORS JOB CREATORS JOB CREATORS talk.

HackensackBackpack
Aug 20, 2007

Who needs a house out in Hackensack? Is that all you get for your money?
Yesterday Kathleen Wynne dismissed the NDP as "irrelevant" and Andrea Horwath laughed it off.

Today, she has made a commitment to that irrelevance, with a platform seemingly designed to alienate everyone. NDP supporters (as extrapolated from this thread) are upset at her apparent shift to the right, with all the "job creators" talk, left-wing swing voters who don't want a Hudak government are now more likely (in my opinion) to swing back to the Liberals, and right-wing voters typically don't have a second choice anyway, but also Horwath wants to :supaburn: raise corporate taxes :supaburn: so, good luck with that!

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

vyelkin posted:

Mentions of 'family' or 'families': 15
Mentions of 'middle class': 2
Mentions of 'worker' or 'workers': 6
Mentions of 'working class': 0
Mentions of 'union' or 'unions': 0
Mentions of 'job creators' or 'job creation': 3

e: the platform also mentions investment in the Ring of Fire 'without delay' and then allocates no funds to it in their revenue/investment breakdown.
Going through that budget I am counting over $2 billion in new handouts to "Job creator middle class small business owners :911:".

gently caress you NDP.

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate
CFRA in Ottawa (home to Lowell Green) has already started to call for Hudak's head. I don't know what's going on.

This poll from Forum research http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/22/poll_tory_cuts_and_lowkey_ndp_campaign_helping_liberals.html shows the Liberals curb-stomping everyone.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

sbaldrick posted:

CFRA in Ottawa (home to Lowell Green) has already started to call for Hudak's head. I don't know what's going on.

This poll from Forum research http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/22/poll_tory_cuts_and_lowkey_ndp_campaign_helping_liberals.html shows the Liberals curb-stomping everyone.

It's interactive voice response which is traditionally unreliable in Canada though (thanks to Helsing for pointing that out). Much as I'd like the poll to be true, I don't want to fall into the Romney trap so I'll wait for other polls from other companies with other methodologies before I take too much confidence from this.

aarp
Dec 22, 2004

#2 Hot Dog Club Member
So was the "you'll know it when you see it" policy supposed to be in the ONDP platform or are we still waiting?

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

vyelkin posted:

It's interactive voice response which is traditionally unreliable in Canada though (thanks to Helsing for pointing that out). Much as I'd like the poll to be true, I don't want to fall into the Romney trap so I'll wait for other polls from other companies with other methodologies before I take too much confidence from this.

Every poll is all over the place this year. I more trust that CFRA isn't on-board with Hudak for the way the election is blowing.

HackensackBackpack
Aug 20, 2007

Who needs a house out in Hackensack? Is that all you get for your money?

sbaldrick posted:

Every poll is all over the place this year. I more trust that CFRA isn't on-board with Hudak for the way the election is blowing.

Who at CFRA is calling for Hudak's head?

geese
May 29, 2007

This goose is cooked.

aarp posted:

So was the "you'll know it when you see it" policy supposed to be in the ONDP platform or are we still waiting?

I was referring to the platform leaflets that are going out. They're being delivered to over a million homes over the next couple of days.

Lumius
Nov 24, 2004
Superior Awesome Sucks
Anecdotal talk , my street of 10 houses in a NW Toronto ward has 6 NDP signs. The local candidate (not incumbent) is a cool guy though.

CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK
Sep 11, 2001



:lol: for anyone that still had hope for the ONDP before this. But don't worry, they will totally govern from the left if elected despite campaigning from the right because that is a thing that happens.

brucio
Nov 22, 2004
I'm wondering if geese can fill us in on which parts of the ONDP platform were supposed to bring the disgruntled back into the fold..

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

Jimbozig posted:

So, uh, why are the ONDP and OLP two different parties at this point? They seem to be occupying the same ideological ground, so to speak. I mean, they are proposing slightly different programs, but I find it hard to believe that either party would be much against the milquetoast slightly-left-leaning policies the other party proposes. Why even bother splitting the centre-left vote? Just merge already.

A quick glance at politics south of the boarder ought to relieve you of this thought process. If we had only two parties its unlikely the Liberals would be shifting so far to the left. Even if all three parties are terrible the fact that there are three of them prevents them from doing what the Democratic party does in the States, i.e. relying that traditional left wing voters will be forced to vote for the not-Conservative.

The NDP is also still theoretically the party of labour and while people who pay close attention to politics may recognize that it doesn't currently fulfill that function, I think its still the most likely of the three parties to break free of the neoliberal ideological stranglehold on politics. While I'm not sure I'll end up voting for them this time round (in fact earlier today I took a call from Rosaio Marchese's office and had to explain to them why I can't in good conscience volunteer on behalf of an ONDP candidate this cycle, despite logging quite a few hours in 2011 as a canvasser) I do think that anyone who considers themselves leftwing should remain within the ONDP fold and try to push it to the left.

Polls show that even people who don't tend to vote NDP associate that party with fighting for the working poor and standing against corporate interests. Even if that perception is currently inaccurate it does make the ONDP valuable in comparison to the OLP, which is fundamentally a party oriented toward the wealthy. While it may make sense to occasionally vote strategically and not always reflexively support the ONDP, I'm still happy they exist. A two party system would only push our political spectrum even further to the right, and as long as the ONDP exists its at least possible, however remote that possibility in practice, that they will eventually shift left and return to their roots as a labour party.

quote:

Edit: Although I guess with the Sun ad and all that, maybe Horwath's plan is to start trying to split the PC vote instead??

It seems like roughly 20% of the electorate are swing voters between the ONDP and the OLP, while about 10% are swing voters between the ONDP and the OPC. There's also a chunk of the electorate of around 10% who could end up voting for any party, as weird as that sounds to anyone who actually follows politics (protip: a pretty substantial chunk of the electorate have a basically incoherent approach to politics and their thought processes are going to be quite alien to anyone with sufficient political interest to be reading this thread in the first place).

So yeah, Horwath is trying to position herself to win voters who are outraged at the Liberals but feeling skittish about Hudak's hard right turn.

MA-Horus
Dec 3, 2006

I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome I am.

Literally just had the MP for Mississauga East-Streetsville come thru my condo building and say hello. I've never had that happen, it was really neat.

Then again I'm originally from Burlington which is a Conservative stronghold due to Rich Old Fuckers.

Ambrose Burnside
Aug 30, 2007

pensive
e:

Ambrose Burnside fucked around with this message at 03:58 on May 23, 2014

geese
May 29, 2007

This goose is cooked.

brucio posted:

I'm wondering if geese can fill us in on which parts of the ONDP platform were supposed to bring the disgruntled back into the fold..

It's not really my department here, but my sense is that the most disgruntled of the base are the people in and around downtown Toronto. Specific planks in the budget that I personally think the base in Toronto would be happy about are (copied from the platform doc):

Stop corporate tax giveaways and close tax loopholes
Bring better public transit to cities and towns across Ontario
Prioritize high impact transit projects (specifically Downtown Relief Line, Clean Trains, a solution for Scarborough transit)
Invest in safe and affordable childcare spaces
Freeze post-secondary tuition and make student loans interest-free
Expand dental benefits for children from low-income households
Protect tenants by enforcing building standards and maintenance rules
Help communities create bike networks and make roads safer for everyone
Conduct an Environmental Assessment of pipeline projects that impact our communities

Will that please them? It's not my job to know, but based on this thread, probably not.

For what it's worth, it seems the base outside Toronto is pretty happy with the direction of the party. :shrug:

JohnnyCanuck
May 28, 2004

Strong And/Or Free

geese posted:

For what it's worth, it seems the base outside Toronto is pretty happy with the direction of the party. :shrug:
Does that include Ottawa and Eastern Ontario? Because, um...

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

:negative:



e: Best Premier
Andrea Horwath: 38 per cent
Kathleen Wynne: 32 per cent
Tim Hudak: 30 per cent

everything is terrible

Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 23:14 on May 22, 2014

Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
If the PCs win, I'm quitting show business.

Mordecai
May 18, 2003

Known throughout the world! Chop people's head off to the ground! Angry eyes that frighten people! Dragon among humans, king of dragons... Manchurian Derp Deity, Ha Che'er.

geese posted:

Freeze post-secondary tuition and make student loans interest-free

This isn't aimed at you in particular, but I'd really prefer if this was targeted rather than also applying to the rich and :siren:middle class.:siren:

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.
Has the NDP figured out a way to pay for all of its promises?

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



I think I've seen or heard the PC ad about 20 times today on CBC. I hope they blew all of their cash on this buy-in.

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

Mordecai posted:

This isn't aimed at you in particular, but I'd really prefer if this was targeted rather than also applying to the rich and :siren:middle class.:siren:

A better idea would be a OSAP forgiveness which would really jump start the economy.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

Ipsos Reid posted:

Ontario Race Tightens: Hudak PCs Slip (35%, -4), Horwath NDP Gain (28%, +4) and Wynne Liberals Stall (31%, +1) among Decided Voters

But Ballot Box Bonus Belongs to Progressive Conservatives (41%, +6), Not Liberals (30%, -1) or NDP (26%, -2) among Likely Voters

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Toronto, ON – The Ontario provincial election race is tightening, with a 7-point gap separating first place from third among decided voters, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CTV and CP24. Most Ontarians remain entrenched in their desire for change, but no consensus is emerging on which party and leader should take the reins at Queen’s Park following Election Day on June 12.

NDP leader Andrea Horwath is beginning to cut through the noise created by the frontrunners, while Tim Hudak’s controversial jobs plan appears to have halted the momentum that the Tories were building, and Kathleen Wynne’s support levels are stagnant. Among likely voters – those who say nothing short of an emergency could stop them from getting to the polling station – the Tories hold an 11-point lead over second-place Liberals.

If the election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak would receive 35% support among decided voters (down 4 points since last week), while the Liberals under Premier Kathleen Wynne would receive 31% support (up 1 point). The New Democratic Party, led by Andrea Horwath, would receive 28% of the vote (up 4 points), while 6% would vote for some other party, including the Green Party led by Mike Schreiner (down 1 point). Two in ten (19%) Ontarians remain undecided (down 1 point).

The results within the major regions of the province show some competitive dogfights:

-In the 905 area of the GTA, the Tories (39%) have a 5-point lead over the Liberals (34%), while the NDP (24%) and others (3%) trail.
-In the 416, Toronto proper, the Liberals (40%) have an 8-point lead over the NDP (32%), while the Progressive Conservatives (22%) struggle in third place, and others lag behind (6%).
-In Southwest Ontario, the Tories (38%) have a lead over the NDP (32%), while the Liberals (21%) are in third position over other parties (10%).
-In Central Ontario, the PCs (45%) enjoy a lead over the Liberals (34%) and NDP (17%), while other parties (4%) are not competitive.
-In Eastern Ontario, the Tories (46%) are also in the lead, ahead of the Liberals (35%), NDP (16%), and other parties (3%).
-In Northern Ontario, the NDP (48%) remains very strong, with the PCs (26%), Liberals (17%) and other parties (10%) struggling to keep up.

Ballot Box Bonus Belongs to Progressive Conservatives…

The data reveal that while the province-wide race is tightening among the general population, among the 47% of Ontarians who say that ‘nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote’, the PCs (41%, +6) remain well ahead of the Liberals (30%, -1) and the NDP (26%, -2), while support for other parties drops down to 3% (-3). Tory voters are the most committed to show up, while the NDP and Liberals might struggle to get out their vote.

Moreover, a majority (53%) of current Tory voters are ‘absolutely certain’ that this is the party that they will support on June 12, compared to 42% of NDP voters, 37% of Liberal voters, and 25% of those who would vote for another party.

The Tory vote is most committed to their party and most committed to show up and vote.

The Potential for Vote Switching…

With most NDP and Liberal voters are not absolutely certain that they’ll stick with their party, and with 19% of Ontarians completely undecided about whom they would vote for, the potential for a significant shift in the standings still exists.

-Liberal voters are more likely to name the NDP (41%) as their second choice than the Tories (14%) or some other party (12%).
-Tory voters are more likely to name the NDP (25%) as their second choice than the Liberals (15%) or some other party (14%).
-NDP voters are more likely to name the Liberals (39%) than the Tories (19%) or another party (19%) as their second choice.
-These data suggest that the potential for significant changes in support is more plausible among the Liberals and the NDP than it is among the Progressive Conservatives. In other words, at this stage the PCs only have limited room for growth from vote switching; the Liberals and NDP have a greater potential for growth if supporters of these two parties decide to rally around one party at the expense of the other, something that the data suggest is a distinct possibility.

Most (72%) Ontarians Say it’s Time for a Change…

Nearly three quarters (72%) of Ontarians are of the opinion that ‘it is time for another provincial party to take over and run the province’.
In contrast, three in ten (28%) think that the ‘Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the next provincial election’, a figure that typically tracks closely to the percentage of the vote the incumbent receives on Election Day.

And while one in three (32%) Ontarians believe that Liberal Leader Premier Kathleen Wynne would make the best Premier of Ontario, the leader of the most popular party – Tim Hudak of the Progressive Conservatives – polls well behind (30%) 3rd party NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (38%) as the major party leader who would make the best Premier of Ontario.

In short, the Tories are more popular than their leader Tim Hudak, while NDP leader Andrea Horwath is more popular than her party.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

sbaldrick posted:

A better idea would be a OSAP forgiveness which would really jump start the economy.

I would not hesitate to vote NDP if they promised this.

CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK
Sep 11, 2001



Helsing posted:

Nearly three quarters (72%) of Ontarians are of the opinion that ‘it is time for another provincial party to take over and run the province

:suicide: I don't get that logic at all. Let's vote for the Tories because things are ok now so clearly we need a change of leadership and have someone gently caress everything up again.

HackensackBackpack
Aug 20, 2007

Who needs a house out in Hackensack? Is that all you get for your money?

CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK posted:

:suicide: I don't get that logic at all. Let's vote for the Tories because things are ok now so clearly we need a change of leadership and have someone gently caress everything up again.

You mean the government isn't like tuna casserole night? We've been having the same tuna casserole every Thursday for the last ten years. It's time for a change!

I don't like the colour of the drapes. Let's go out and buy blue drapes. It's time for a change!

HackensackBackpack fucked around with this message at 05:40 on May 23, 2014

Heavy neutrino
Sep 16, 2007

You made a fine post for yourself. ...For a casualry, I suppose.

CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK posted:

:suicide: I don't get that logic at all. Let's vote for the Tories because things are ok now so clearly we need a change of leadership and have someone gently caress everything up again.

Well, it's a stupid data point to begin with since you'd assume that everyone who's not voting for the OLP thinks it's time to change the governing party (to the one they support).

I mean it'd be pretty funny but you're never going to see a situation where 70% intend to vote against the ruling party, but only 20% think it's time to change.

Lobok
Jul 13, 2006

Say Watt?

sbaldrick posted:

A better idea would be a OSAP forgiveness which would really jump start the economy.

Wouldn't that just be mostly a one-time cash infusion, though? Yes, if everyone had their loans forgiven, they would have more money each paycheque in the long-term from then on but everyone coming afterwards would still be stuck. What about something like changing the tax code to allow credits or deductions on more than just the interest paid on the loan? Something like 25-50% of the principal as well?

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

Lobok posted:

What about something like changing the tax code to allow credits or deductions on more than just the interest paid on the loan? Something like 25-50% of the principal as well?

I don't see how letting people take out more loan than they can afford is going to do anything but drive up the cost of tuition and related expenses like it has in the U.S. (Or, for that matter, the housing markets in both the U.S. and Canada.) Tuition rates in Ontario are not exorbitant.

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Lobok
Jul 13, 2006

Say Watt?

tagesschau posted:

I don't see how letting people take out more loan than they can afford is going to do anything but drive up the cost of tuition and related expenses like it has in the U.S. (Or, for that matter, the housing markets in both the U.S. and Canada.) Tuition rates in Ontario are not exorbitant.

I'm not advocating that people be given higher OSAP loans, though. Just that when you pay the loan back you can claim more than the interest paid. If people want to have separate student lines of credit that's totally on them.

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