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Wayne Gretzky posted:All of the poo poo that's been statistically proven to be either incidental to or a negative indicator for winning like big open ice hits, huge beasts from High River beating the poo poo out of each other in prearranged fights, coming back out on the ice all stitched up after a guy blocked a shot with his face, spearing guys in the nuts, beaking off, skating by the other bench after you whaled on a guy and doing the WWF belt hand-move, is the good part of hockey anyway so I dont give a poo poo about statistics. agreed but i also want to watch people with a blue and orange jersey win games
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Aug 6, 2014 17:16
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jsoh posted:agreed but i also want to watch people with a blue and orange jersey win games Eh, I can take it or leave it
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Aug 6, 2014 17:19
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LumpyGumby posted:The NHL just confirmed the Sharks and Kings will play in this years stadium series. Are they having less than half the league playing outdoors this time?
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Aug 6, 2014 17:20
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The long-term problem with fancy stats based on shot attempts is that agents and players aren't loving stupid. You're already seeing bad contracts getting handed out to players based on their Corsi events. This behavior will lead to players stupidly firing pucks at the net in order to pad their fancystats and to agents encouraging them to do so (this is assuming that we're all naive and half the league doesn't already do this). Shot-based advanced stats are already approaching the end of their useful lifetime and everyone who is just jumping on the bandwagon has already missed out on the value.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:28
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I want a Winnipeg/Arizona Minnesota/Dallas Colorado/New Jersey Stadium Series. Winners keep the team statistics.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:30
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jsoh posted:agreed but i also want to watch people with a blue and orange jersey win games Me, too.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:32
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I wish we could have another thread where it's bannable to talk about advanced stats and we only talk about feelings, grit, truculence and other intangibles. It's more fun to argue hockey over these things than actual verifiable data.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:44
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Grimby posted:I wish we could have another thread where it's bannable to talk about advanced stats and we only talk about feelings, grit, truculence and other intangibles. It's more fun to argue hockey over these things than actual verifiable data. Identifying strongly with an urge to control discourse and punish others for not engaging with you in an interesting way is psycho mate.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:47
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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium* > August NHL N/V: Some dick cheese crying about Corsis
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Aug 6, 2014 17:51
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Grimby posted:I wish we could have another thread where it's bannable to talk about advanced stats and we only talk about feelings, grit, truculence and other intangibles. It's more fun to argue hockey over these things than actual verifiable data. There's only so much Jonathan Toews talk I can take
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Aug 6, 2014 17:54
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Grimby posted:I wish we could have another thread where it's bannable to talk about advanced stats and we only talk about feelings, grit, truculence and other intangibles. It's more fun to argue hockey over these things than actual verifiable data. There are many, many places on the internet where this is possible.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:56
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Jordan7hm posted:All data is a factual statement of past events. That would be true only if performance and the events that accrue behind it (points, possession, etc.) were independent events (a fair coin flip isn't impacted by a prior fair coin flip). Players can have hot or cold streak, or you can generally expect a player who played well for 5 years to keep playing well. The events in Hockey aren't independent events in the statistical sense (puck possession impacts chances of scoring, for example), and there is a given amount of predictability that can be tied over time to any of these. Now, shot/goal differential vs. corsi is another comparison, but the thing you're describing is the usual confidence you can have in statistics: how much correlation is there between the sequence of events I'm analyzing and the final results. A coin toss -- a totally random variable -- gives you lovely predictability. How much better you are at predicting can be compared to this one, and methods to one another, with terms like Precision and Recall, for example. Now Hockey isn't a closed system and people learn about the stats being observed, and game them. This means that they will usually be interpreted as a source of success when there isn't an obvious proof that what we have is just correlation. This leads to what Spamtron7000 mentioned (people blindly shoot at the net to raise their fancystats), where the predictive value of a metric gets devalued, and eventually, a different metric should come out with better capabilities.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:57
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DOOMocrat posted:So you'll be watching Colorado curiously this season as well. Should be fun. The stats crowd sure did call the Toronto collapse correctly. Can fancystats take into account fear of Patrick Roy's wrath? Didn't think so, checkmate math nerds. 
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Aug 6, 2014 18:00
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Chairman Wao posted:Can fancystats take into account fear of Patrick Roy's wrath? Didn't think so, checkmate math nerds. That's more a question of structural engineering.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:02
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Wayne Gretzky posted:All of the poo poo that's been statistically proven to be either incidental to or a negative indicator for winning like big open ice hits, huge beasts from High River beating the poo poo out of each other in prearranged fights, coming back out on the ice all stitched up after a guy blocked a shot with his face, spearing guys in the nuts, beaking off, skating by the other bench after you whaled on a guy and doing the WWF belt hand-move, is the good part of hockey anyway so I dont give a poo poo about statistics. I'd consider it an interesting social experiment if it weren't for those tough kids from Yellow Grass ending up filling diapers after the age of 45. That's where we're split though, so eh.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:03
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Spamtron7000 posted:The long-term problem with fancy stats based on shot attempts is that agents and players aren't loving stupid. You're already seeing bad contracts getting handed out to players based on their Corsi events. This behavior will lead to players stupidly firing pucks at the net in order to pad their fancystats and to agents encouraging them to do so (this is assuming that we're all naive and half the league doesn't already do this). Shot-based advanced stats are already approaching the end of their useful lifetime and everyone who is just jumping on the bandwagon has already missed out on the value. yes but see shooting percentages will regress towards last years mean and
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Aug 6, 2014 18:06
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Spamtron7000 posted:The long-term problem with fancy stats based on shot attempts is that agents and players aren't loving stupid. You're already seeing bad contracts getting handed out to players based on their Corsi events. This behavior will lead to players stupidly firing pucks at the net in order to pad their fancystats and to agents encouraging them to do so (this is assuming that we're all naive and half the league doesn't already do this). Shot-based advanced stats are already approaching the end of their useful lifetime and everyone who is just jumping on the bandwagon has already missed out on the value. You're also seeing Brooks Orpik 5.5/5 based on Grit And Intangibles. I don't think we've gone full on into the Age of Fancystats just yet, which is why I was saying it'll be interesting to see if the NHL itself starts running primers of corsi or mentioning it in broadcasts. Once that happens, that's going to be when agents start telling players to pad their fancystats It's also worth noting that corsi itself only exists as an attempt to quantify possession, because unlike in soccer, in hockey it's much more difficult to say "this team has held the puck for this amount of time." In order to take a garbage point shot to pad your own fancystats your team still needs to have the puck in the first place e: also, kind of just curious, but can you cite some examples of GMs saying they secured (overpaid) players because they drive possession? The only one I know for sure is Stralman, who really just played the market well as one of the few available UFA d-men who wasn't Brooks Orpik Vicas fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Aug 6, 2014 |
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Aug 6, 2014 18:24
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I think in the case of Orpik you also get this entrenched idea that old veteran players shouldn't be taking a paycut even as their skills decline Orpik is respected around the league for some unknown reason so of course no one's going to say "dude is probably worth $2 mill/year tops". It's really hard to shift a guys salary downwards especially if they're an UFA (unless you're Lee Stempniak)
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Aug 6, 2014 18:27
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Subban's contract is overvalued because he pads his corsi by waiting with the puck behind the net while there are line changes !!
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Aug 6, 2014 18:27
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Grimby posted:I wish we could have another thread where it's bannable to talk about advanced stats and we only talk about feelings, grit, truculence and other intangibles. It's more fun to argue hockey over these things than actual verifiable data. Let's not make ourselves an xbone hug box/shark tank situation here.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:27
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Vicas posted:
Most of the guys the Oilers signed this summer are fancy stat heroes I think
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Aug 6, 2014 18:36
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Vicas posted:e: also, kind of just curious, but can you cite some examples of GMs saying they secured (overpaid) players because they drive possession? The only one I know for sure is Stralman, who really just played the market well as one of the few available UFA d-men who wasn't Brooks Orpik No - I don't read enough GM quotes to have that but the Clarkson deal will always leaving me scratching my head. They MUST have been using CF Rel to gauge his value because what the gently caress happened there?
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Aug 6, 2014 18:37
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Levitate posted:I think in the case of Orpik you also get this entrenched idea that old veteran players shouldn't be taking a paycut even as their skills decline This is astute. A player's value being cut in half from his last contract is just not the way things go when talking about a Cup-winning veteran with a good reputation around the league. GM's often pay for experience and intangibles and wouldn't tell a guy like Orpik, "well you're garbage now."
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Aug 6, 2014 18:37
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Wayne Gretzky posted:Most of the guys the Oilers signed this summer are fancy stat heroes I think Yeah Fayne and Pouliot for sure but those two were also carried by their linemates. Fayne is solid but without Andy Greene he was dramatically worse.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:38
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:This is astute. A player's value being cut in half from his last contract is just not the way things go when talking about a Cup-winning veteran with a good reputation around the league. GM's often pay for experience and intangibles and wouldn't tell a guy like Orpik, "well you're garbage now." With Orpik I think there's probably some kind of irrational love affair there, too. McLellan specifically targeted him subjectively without paying much attention to his market value. He's the guy they wanted based on their situation and they went after him. I can see him being a good foil for Green, Niskanen or Orlov so I hope they're right but they could definitely have landed a better player/value by valuing him more objectively.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:43
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Spamtron7000 posted:No - I don't read enough GM quotes to have that but the Clarkson deal will always leaving me scratching my head. They MUST have been using CF Rel to gauge his value because what the gently caress happened there? Nonis saying at the time that CF and CF rel are for nerdy babies leads me to think otherwise.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:43
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:This is astute. A player's value being cut in half from his last contract is just not the way things go when talking about a Cup-winning veteran with a good reputation around the league. GM's often pay for experience and intangibles and wouldn't tell a guy like Orpik, "well you're garbage now." Yeah, and in a league with 30 teams all it takes is 1 GM willing to pay it. If you're lucky enough to get 2 you can spin up a bidding war. But the point is I don't think we're at the point where fancystats have an undue pull on players and the contracts that they're earning
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Aug 6, 2014 18:43
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Yeah Fayne and Pouliot for sure but those two were also carried by their linemates. Fayne is solid but without Andy Greene he was dramatically worse.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:44
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Rene Bork posted:Nonis saying at the time that CF and CF rel are for nerdy babies leads me to think otherwise. Ok that's fine. Even so I think it's fair to assume that advanced stats have at least started to affect the market for some players. Maybe it's possible Nonis wanted Clarkson for other reasons but his advanced stats increased his demand around the league which helped to drive his asking price higher? It's just a hypothesis. I think advanced stats have already driven demand, which drives prices. And in the future I'm sure that it will be the case and then people will just start calling players who shoot too much Puck Hogs again.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:48
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Yeah Fayne and Pouliot for sure but those two were also carried by their linemates. Fayne is solid but without Andy Greene he was dramatically worse. I don't know why Devils fans of all people keep harping about Fayne's stats away from Greene. He had 246 5v5 minutes away from Greene last season with a 47% CF%. But in the lockout season he had 267 minutes away from Greene with a 61% CF%. Which one of those small samples of minutes with elite defenders like old man time Bryce Salvador and Peter "Who? Him?" Harold is more meaningful?
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Aug 6, 2014 18:49
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There were Toronto fancy stat bloggers calling Clarkson a 'puck hog' and 'chucker' before he signed. I don't think there are as many of these look-at-one-number people as we appear to be afraid there are.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:50
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Spamtron7000 posted:Ok that's fine. Even so I think it's fair to assume that advanced stats have at least started to affect the market for some players. Maybe it's possible Nonis wanted Clarkson for other reasons but his advanced stats increased his demand around the league which helped to drive his asking price higher? It's just a hypothesis. I think advanced stats have already driven demand, which drives prices. And in the future I'm sure that it will be the case and then people will just start calling players who shoot too much Puck Hogs again. I guess we'd start by finding out what players' agents are saying about their clients in contract talks.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:50
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INSPECTAH DECK posted:Dellow himself wrote 2 articles about how good Pouliot was based on his possession across several teams, and how happy he was with the signing. I mean...I don't really know what I'd expect out of Pouliot with the Oilers. I think he benefited a lot from playing with Brassard and Zucc, though he probably helped that somewhat by being the guy on the line who would shoot the puck for sure. Who'd he play with a lot in Boston and his other stops? My impression from the Rangers is that he wasn't the guy making his line work but he didn't hurt it either...in the right situation he's good. He's still a 38 point player though and that's with power play time
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Aug 6, 2014 18:51
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Spamtron7000 posted:Ok that's fine. Even so I think it's fair to assume that advanced stats have at least started to affect the market for some players. Maybe it's possible Nonis wanted Clarkson for other reasons but his advanced stats increased his demand around the league which helped to drive his asking price higher? It's just a hypothesis. I think advanced stats have already driven demand, which drives prices. And in the future I'm sure that it will be the case and then people will just start calling players who shoot too much Puck Hogs again. He's also a big Ontario boy who scored 30 in 80 and 15 in 48. I don't think it was just the possession stuff.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:51
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Spamtron7000 posted:Ok that's fine. Even so I think it's fair to assume that advanced stats have at least started to affect the market for some players. Maybe it's possible Nonis wanted Clarkson for other reasons but his advanced stats increased his demand around the league which helped to drive his asking price higher? It's just a hypothesis. I think advanced stats have already driven demand, which drives prices. And in the future I'm sure that it will be the case and then people will just start calling players who shoot too much Puck Hogs again. it hasn't happened and even if it did it would just mean that undervalued players become overvalued while a different set of players become undervalued and smart teams adjust. basically nobody who isn't an idiot doesn't think you should take a player based solely on their corsi stats without any context at all, it's why dellow spent the last year watching zone entries and writing about faceoffs. e: my impression of pouliot with the canadiens was that he wasn't very good. he is kind of the perfect test case of fancystats versus the eye test. e2: also how are we now re-writing history to say that clarkson was signed because of his fancystats when all the fancystats people viciously mocked the signing when it happened Zamboni Jesus fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Aug 6, 2014 |
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Aug 6, 2014 18:53
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My impression of Clarkson before he came to Toronto was that he was a crease-crashing goalscorer and occasional agitating shithead. Kind of like a good Tronna boy version of Holmstrom. I just can't understand why pro scouts/GMs ignored the fact that he doesn't have much natural skill, can't pass worth a poo poo, and can barely skate. Did he fall down a lot in Jersey too? Because he's at least as bad as Hartnell in that regard and can't even throw a decent hit or shelter the puck properly.
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Aug 6, 2014 18:58
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yes he always falls down a lot because he can't skate for poo poo
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Aug 6, 2014 19:02
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The teams who are hiring advanced stats experts obviously think they are important. So what is the value in bringing that type of element into your organization if it's not in trying to implement advanced stats into determining your team's composition? The more teams do this, the more Corsi and Fenwick will drive demand for certain players. Higher demand will equal higher price. I don't think that idea is anything too controversial.
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Aug 6, 2014 19:05
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Levitate posted:Who'd he play with a lot in Boston and his other stops? Kelly, Peverley, Caron and Rolston in that order. Primarily Kelly, who had the best season of his career that year. The 3rd spot was a split between the other 3.
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Aug 6, 2014 19:06
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Spamtron7000 posted:The teams who are hiring advanced stats experts obviously think they are important. So what is the value in bringing that type of element into your organization if it's not in trying to implement advanced stats into determining your team's composition? The more teams do this, the more Corsi and Fenwick will drive demand for certain players. Higher demand will equal higher price. I don't think that idea is anything too controversial. nobody is saying it is, i just don't understand why this is a bad thing. if they become overvalued than smart teams will just adjust the metrics they use and find something else, which has happened in baseball after the big money teams like the yankees and red sox jumped in on on base percentage etc. e: and shooting loads sure has helped ovechkin's corsi out, imagine how bad it would be if he didn't shoot so much? Zamboni Jesus fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Aug 6, 2014 |
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Aug 6, 2014 19:13
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