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HortonNash
Oct 10, 2012

Spangly A posted:

He's been back in Kent for a bit. If it's loving Brazier I'll flip.

Just reading his name brings on a serious case of the needtopunchafaces. He was such a dick when I lived in Canterbury.

However, he and Michael Howard did get egged off the stage in the Gulbenkian during a YC meet and greet, and I was outside jeering them as they were rushed out by plod.

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Acaila
Jan 2, 2011



A friend suggested earlier that if 18-21 year olds don't get benefits, they shouldn't have to pay tax either. Can't say I disagree with the principle of that.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Acaila posted:

A friend suggested earlier that if 18-21 year olds don't get benefits, they shouldn't have to pay tax either. Can't say I disagree with the principle of that.

benefits are not social insurance between one's age cohort, surely

TinTower
Apr 21, 2010

You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.

Extreme0 posted:

a Labour coalition...with the tories :byodood:

That's actually been mooted by some columnists with the recognition that Labour plus the Lib Dems and/or the SNP might not be enough to get stable government. It would probably set both parties back by a long mile, as a lot of each party's faithful would balk at the idea of doing a deal with the (in some eyes, literal) devil. The Lib Dem collapse would look like a drop in the pond. We're not accustomed to Grand Coalition as our European neighbours are.

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.
A colleague of mine floated the idea of, in the event of the West Lothian question being resolved, a minority Labour government with enough SNP MPs to hold their feet to the fire and essentially act as a whip for Scottish issues. Does this seem feasible to anyone or is he talking bollocks?

Extreme0
Feb 28, 2013

I dance to the sweet tune of your failure so I'm never gonna stop fucking with you.

Continue to get confused and frustrated with me as I dance to your anger.

As I expect nothing more from ya you stupid runt!


It would be amusing to see Labour have no choice in making a coalition with the SNP in a General Election if the Tories are still ahead or the Tories are thinking of a coalition with UKIP.

Strange as it may be and the odds of it happen our near under 5%. A Labour/SNP vs Tory/UKIP scenerio would be an interesting sight to see.

Speaking of coalitions, can more then two parties be part of a coalition?

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Extreme0 posted:

Speaking of coalitions, can more then two parties be part of a coalition?

Yes. Last election there was talk of Labour forming a "rainbow coalition" of about five parties but it fell through or was never going to happen but floated anyway. This is while the BBC were pretending the Tories had actually won because they didn't (or pretended not to) understand what happens when both main parties don't get a majority. Fun times. Can't wait for it to happen again only with actual fascist parties like UKIP involved!

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
although the SNP and Labour are ideologically more similar, it is hard to see common priorities for both at the present. What would they compromise on? the SNP can hardly benefit electorally in giving up FFA as part of a coalition agreement, and Labour can't call upon SNP support in duelling the Tories over English devolution

TinTower
Apr 21, 2010

You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.

Extreme0 posted:

It would be amusing to see Labour have no choice in making a coalition with the SNP in a General Election if the Tories are still ahead or the Tories are thinking of a coalition with UKIP.

Strange as it may be and the odds of it happen our near under 5%. A Labour/SNP vs Tory/UKIP scenerio would be an interesting sight to see.

Speaking of coalitions, can more then two parties be part of a coalition?

There's a small chance that either party might refuse to work with each other, from old wounds from the 1979 referendum being opened in the independence debate. The SNP would almost definitely demand fiscal autonomy as a red-line.

Labour also has a habit of ruling like a majority government when they're actually running a minority administration. They've spent the best part of the past eighteen months pissing off the Lib Dems and the Independent in Calderdale, and then acted surprised when they lost a confidence vote.

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009
Can some one make a new scotland thread please.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Jippa posted:

Can some one make a new scotland thread please.
Two of the biggest 'Scottish' issues - devolution/federalism and the potential impact of the SNP in 2015 - both merit discussion here since they'd have UK-wide effects. Pointless sniping about who's bitter and who's moving on from the indyref or who's a traitor or the meaning of words could be omitted, however.

Anyway, Lord Ashcroft has an interesting (non-paywalled) piece about the Tories' prospects in the Times. Consider the source and all that:

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/article1464338.ece

quote:

In the eight months remaining before the general election many voters face a dilemma. They prefer Labour to the Conservatives but would rather have David Cameron in Downing Street than Ed Miliband.

...

Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow. Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour.

These “defectors” had various complaints: the cost of living, lack of progress on immigration, stagnant pay, welfare reforms that had left them worse off. (There were also some bitter complaints about Michael Gove, the former education secretary, but these came without exception from teachers and their relatives.) While many of these voters were attracted to Ukip by the refreshing straightforwardness of Nigel Farage, few of those moving to Labour had a positive reason for switching. Hardly anyone we spoke to could name a single Labour proposal; most simply hoped, rather than expected, that things would somehow be better under a different government. Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May. For the party to hold on to power, each voter who does defect will have to be replaced with a new one. Yet converts are thin on the ground.

...

[People who did not vote Tory in 2010 but say they might in 2015] are also younger than existing Conservative voters and more likely to be female and to work in the public sector. (LD: Turkeys <3 Christmas)

...

At the same time, more than three-quarters of loyalists and 7 in 10 Tory converts said cuts needed to continue for the next five years; nearly half of defectors said either austerity was no longer necessary or had never been needed in the first place.

The task for Cameron and the Tories, then, is to build a coalition of the willing — a big enough group of voters prepared to accept continued austerity because they believe the results will be worth waiting for. Many understood that restraint was required after 2010 but are not sure why it is still needed, especially if things are supposed to be looking up. The Conservatives need to explain this and the rewards that will follow if doubtful voters stick with them.

Oh dear me
Aug 14, 2012

I have burned numerous saucepans, sometimes right through the metal

Rapey Joe Stalin posted:

The experience for me was a weird one in which I was left feeling confused, betrayed, and rejected by my own countrymen.

'Weird'? I feel like that after every general election.

Obliterati
Nov 13, 2012

Pain is inevitable.
Suffering is optional.
Thunderdome is forever.
The obvious solution is that Dave and Ed change places for a bit and lead each others' parties. It's not like it'd make any real difference after all.

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Jippa posted:

Can some one make a new scotland thread please.

55% of Scots don't want one. :colbert:

A Labour/SNP coalition could work through Labour pushing nice things (TBD) to Scotland in exchange for support on key issues. Basically, answer the West Lothian Question with "Who gives a gently caress? All our interests are tied together."

twoot
Oct 29, 2012

TinTower posted:

There's a small chance that either party might refuse to work with each other, from old wounds from the 1979 referendum being opened in the independence debate. The SNP would almost definitely demand fiscal autonomy as a red-line.

Old wounds? The Labour party still will not support any SNP motion in the Commons. Labour being forced into relying on the SNP for confidence would be an utterly hilarious humiliation. I hope it happens just for entertainment.

The ever dubious world of UK-GE prediction models makes it look possible too;

Lugaloco
Jun 29, 2011

Ice to see you!

Surely the SNP going into a coalition with Labour not long after an independence referendum would be the worst thing they could do? It just doesn't feel right to me.

Filboid Studge
Oct 1, 2010
And while they debated the matter among themselves, Conradin made himself another piece of toast.

twoot posted:

Old wounds? The Labour party still will not support any SNP motion in the Commons. Labour being forced into relying on the SNP for confidence would be an utterly hilarious humiliation. I hope it happens just for entertainment.

The ever dubious world of UK-GE prediction models makes it look possible too;



That doesn't really reflect any other recent poll aggregates I've seen- Electoral Calculus for one is predicting a decent Labour majority, based on polls to the 25th.

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

Acaila posted:

A friend suggested earlier that if 18-21 year olds don't get benefits, they shouldn't have to pay tax either. Can't say I disagree with the principle of that.

You do realise this 'principle' is enormously regressive, don't you?

kingturnip
Apr 18, 2008

Oh dear me posted:

'Weird'? I feel like that after every general election.

I don't, but only because I expect most of my fellow Britishers to vote for parties that neither represent them nor give a poo poo about them. Therefore, no 'betrayal'.

tooterfish
Jul 13, 2013

Fellow Britishers?

I'll need to see your teeth sir, I'm not convinced of your bona fides.

gorki
Aug 9, 2014
I often wonder if the people who get into a flap about the prospect of some UKIP MPs ending up in coalition with the Tories forget that there is already a party with 8 MPs that unlike UKIP doesn't even have the decency to pretend to be anything other than bigoted lunatics living in a century past.

Also sometimes wonder if Labour could include Sinn Féin in a coalition. I mean they represent the other side of the bigoted extremists from Northern Ireland coin, but they would be the ideal coalition partners given that they refuse to take their seats :newlol:

okay, given a minute's thought not ideal, but a lot less work

gorki fucked around with this message at 11:53 on Sep 28, 2014

twoot
Oct 29, 2012

Filboid Studge posted:

That doesn't really reflect any other recent poll aggregates I've seen- Electoral Calculus for one is predicting a decent Labour majority, based on polls to the 25th.

It's not just a poll aggregate, it models a result by taking into account historical performances. The guy wrote an enormous paper detailing his methodology. But the three overall effects are;

quote:

*Governments being more likely to recover and oppositions fall back.
*Parties moving back towards their long-run average level of support and/or the level of support at the previous election.
*By far the least important tendency is for the Conservatives to over perform and Labour to under perform their vote intention figures in the polls when it comes to election day.

It is as-yet unproven so I did call it dubious, but it's an attempt to predict the overall figure because the UK has a dearth of constituency-level polling. Which lead to the hilariously poor performance of 538's Nate Silver in 2010 where he predicted the Lib Dems getting something stupid like 100 seats because national polling still showed the cleggmania effect.

Obliterati
Nov 13, 2012

Pain is inevitable.
Suffering is optional.
Thunderdome is forever.

Fangz posted:

You do realise this 'principle' is enormously regressive, don't you?

Would you mind elaborating on this?

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
I'm really unsure why it's even an issue, if you're that against Cambridge or Oxford then stay in papa's east wing surely?

Rush Limbo
Sep 5, 2005

its with a full house

ReV VAdAUL posted:

I suppose at the heart of it I'm just confused. London and the Southeast keeping as much money as they can and looking solely to their own interests is very bad and detrimental to the poorer regions of the UK but Scotland keeping as much money as they can and looking solely to their own interests is very good, it is still viewed as detrimental to the poorer regions of the UK but I think it is now meant to be a good thing? Perhaps the poorer rUK regions are meant to bootstraps?

As a left wing person I view the benefit of all as the key goal and given Nationalism privileges a minority over the rest I view that as bad. Certainly the status quo often causes left wing groups to work within nations but surely pushing to create and strengthen national divisions is just making problems worse, even if you claim to be creating divisions for a left wing cause?

So this is just about envy?

Scotland being able to self determine and use its own money to help its own people isn't the equivalent to the Westminster angle of draining money from every other area of the country, then using it to prop up the tax haven that is London, an economy built entirely out of the housing market and the new bubble that's growing bigger every day.

I'm not crying salty tears if Scotland up and left with their money. Good on them, at least one aspect of this terrible place can have nice things like people not dying due to lack of food or food banks, or families getting into crippling debt because of sanctions to their benefits leaving them at the mercy of predatory payday loan companies.

This argument is literally the equivalent of telling someone "We're all in this together", when it's plainly clear some are more in it than others.

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Lugaloco posted:

Surely the SNP going into a coalition with Labour not long after an independence referendum would be the worst thing they could do? It just doesn't feel right to me.

If the SNP want to claim to represent the will of the people of Scotland, increasing participation in the UK after the people said they wanted to be part of the UK is not the worst thing they can do. Doubly so, when it is also a path to increased self-determination.

Whitefish
May 31, 2005

After the old god has been assassinated, I am ready to rule the waves.

twoot posted:

Conservatives to announce manifesto pledge to scrap Human Rights Act

:siren::siren: ARE SOVEREIGNTY UNDER THREAT :siren::siren: from losing 8 cases out of 1652 last year :britain:

I know this is going back a bit and changing the current topic of discussion, but the way this thing is being discussed and reported is extremely confusing. It's not surprising that the Tories would attempt to obfuscate the situation regarding the Human Rights Act and the ECHR, but I am surprised that the Guardian has done such a bad job of explaining it.

quote:

The European court of human rights will be prevented from overruling decisions made by British courts under plans set to be announced by the Conservatives this week.

The justice secretary, Chris Grayling, said that the Conservatives wanted to scrap the Human Rights Act so that the final decisions in controversial cases could be made by the supreme court rather than the European court of human rights.

The Human Rights Act is not responsible for allowing people to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights. Scrapping the Human Rights Act would not allow the final decisions in controversial cases to be made by the Supreme Court rather than the European Court of Human Rights. The effect of the Human Rights Act is to empower British judges to take human rights concerns into account when making rulings. Scrapping the Human Rights Act would in fact reduce the power of British judges to make these decisions. If you simply scrapped the Human Rights Act and did nothing else then we would be back to the situation we were in before the Human Rights Act was introduced: i.e. there would be no ability for domestic judges to explicitly consider human rights issues within the context of their judgments, but individuals could still appeal to the ECourtHR over the heads of domestic judges if they wished to.

In order to take the further step of preventing people from appealing to the European Court of Human Rights you would have to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (presumably by leaving the Council of Europe?). But as far as I can see the key provisions of the Human Rights Act could remain in force even if the UK did withdraw from the ECHR - there would be nothing legally inconsistent in doing that, although it would be politically odd.

What the Tories want to do is withdraw from the ECHR, and also scrap the Human Rights Act. But these are not one and the same thing, and the way the Tories and the Guardian are presenting the issues is confusing.

Whitefish fucked around with this message at 12:16 on Sep 28, 2014

coffeetable
Feb 5, 2006

TELL ME AGAIN HOW GREAT BRITAIN WOULD BE IF IT WAS RULED BY THE MERCILESS JACKBOOT OF PRINCE CHARLES

YES I DO TALK TO PLANTS ACTUALLY

Obliterati posted:

Would you mind elaborating on this?
rich kids who don't need welfare get a tax cut

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Obliterati posted:

Would you mind elaborating on this?

'People who don't get benefits shouldn't pay taxes' do you not see the problem here

Obliterati
Nov 13, 2012

Pain is inevitable.
Suffering is optional.
Thunderdome is forever.

Zohar posted:

'People who don't get benefits shouldn't pay taxes' do you not see the problem here


coffeetable posted:

rich kids who don't need welfare get a tax cut

Think I get it now actually, thanks for explaining something surprisingly obvious.

Praseodymi
Aug 26, 2010

I think the principle is more like 'people who can't get benefits shouldn't have to pay taxes. Which would make sense, but obviously rich pricks are also most able to find the loopholes so they can take advantage of it too.

big scary monsters
Sep 2, 2011

-~Skullwave~-

Acaila posted:

A friend suggested earlier that if 18-21 year olds don't get benefits, they shouldn't have to pay tax either. Can't say I disagree with the principle of that.

Praseodymi posted:

I think the principle is more like 'people who can't get benefits shouldn't have to pay taxes. Which would make sense, but obviously rich pricks are also most able to find the loopholes so they can take advantage of it too.

If you're earning less than £10,000 you aren't paying income tax anyway and would get a council tax reduction. What tax should unemployed 18-21 year old's who're having their benefits withheld be exempt from that would actually make any difference, VAT? Capital gains?

Praseodymi
Aug 26, 2010

The point is that access to the social safety net is the most basic goal of drveloped societies, and if you don't have access to that then you shouldn't have to pay in.

Waldorf Sixpence
Sep 6, 2004

Often harder on Player 2
So did anyone turn up to bottle boo Farage and Reckless? I was going to go but couldn't get any solid info on where protests were happening. Really want to know why the Tap is hosting them.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

gorki posted:

I often wonder if the people who get into a flap about the prospect of some UKIP MPs ending up in coalition with the Tories forget that there is already a party with 8 MPs that unlike UKIP doesn't even have the decency to pretend to be anything other than bigoted lunatics living in a century past.

Also sometimes wonder if Labour could include Sinn Féin in a coalition. I mean they represent the other side of the bigoted extremists from Northern Ireland coin, but they would be the ideal coalition partners given that they refuse to take their seats :newlol:

okay, given a minute's thought not ideal, but a lot less work

A party that by policy can never vote in the Commons isn't exactly an ideal coalition partner.

Acaila
Jan 2, 2011



I just think that if you get taxed you should be able to get the benefits. That's why I'm against things like winter fuel allowance, free prescriptions, etc. being means tested. Yes some people can afford them, but universal benefits mean that people aren't paying in and getting nothing back, which is when they're likely to get cranky with a tax system.

UKIP seem to like not telling people where they are going to have events for that reason. They did the same when they came up to Glasgow for the referendum. And still ended up having one of them punching an anti-UKIP protester.

Anyway, back to Scotland ;). I only heard this week that the SNP have it written into their party constitution or whatever it is that they won't go into coalition with the Tories. So basically, they'd offer Labour a coalition again to form a government. (For context, I was worrying to a Nat pal about Yes folk trying to bring down Scottish Labour meaning we're all doomed to more Tories, since Ed seems intent on being useless and not trying very hard to win a decent majority). I do actually think it would be hilarious and I rather want Salmond to go back to Westminster like the first time he left the leadership, because the contrast between Ed as PM and him as deputy would be utterly hilarious. (yes, I know at the moment it would be Angus Robertson probably since he's their WM leader but shhh!)

Quote-Unquote
Oct 22, 2002



Acaila posted:

I just think that if you get taxed you should be able to get the benefits. That's why I'm against things like winter fuel allowance, free prescriptions, etc. being means tested. Yes some people can afford them, but universal benefits mean that people aren't paying in and getting nothing back, which is when they're likely to get cranky with a tax system.

Nobody is paying in and getting nothing back, and everyone that thinks they are is a loving idiot and their arguments are not worth listening to.

In fact, the wealthier you are, the more you are getting back from the system. It's the complete reverse of what anti-tax/libertarian idiots believe.

big scary monsters
Sep 2, 2011

-~Skullwave~-

Acaila posted:

I just think that if you get taxed you should be able to get the benefits.
Agreed. Well, except I think you should be able to get them even if you aren't paying tax. But I don't think that unemployed people are liable for much tax (except VAT) anyway, so what problem exactly are you trying to solve? It seems to me that all you're doing is opening the gates for other people who don't receive benefits (because they don't need them) to argue that they shouldn't pay tax either.

quote:

That's why I'm against things like winter fuel allowance, free prescriptions, etc. being means tested. Yes some people can afford them, but universal benefits mean that people aren't paying in and getting nothing back, which is when they're likely to get cranky with a tax system.
I know we've had this discussion before in the Scotpol thread and here, but the problem with this is basically the same problem as exists with a "fair" flat tax.

Obliterati
Nov 13, 2012

Pain is inevitable.
Suffering is optional.
Thunderdome is forever.
Maybe a slight tangent, but does this make Green policies like minimum income regressive?

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Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
Why would it?

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