Squalid posted:

Regardless of his actual popularity sampling biases, especially in a situation where dissent has real serious consequences, can significantly impact polling results. So yes, it is plausible some or many of those respondents are lying.

Phlegmish posted:

They were jubilant that Morsi got elected, and ecstatic when he was overthrown? I don't get it.

Mano posted:

I think it's something like:
They were happy to be rid of Mubarak.
They were happy to try something like an "Islamic democracy" and Morsi seemed to want to do that.
But Morsi soon did a hard-right into islamistic, which for many went too far.
Ergo when he was overthrown they were also happy. Not that they really like the police state in effect now.

Brown Moses posted:

Things are heating up in Turkey, a day after Turkey claims to have killed 260 PKK in air strikes, what's claimed to be a PKK suicide bomber has killed 2 members of the security forces and wounded 24 others this morning, close to the border with Iran.

AllanGordon posted:

So Turkey wants terrorist attacks from both the PKK and ISIS?

AllanGordon posted:

So Turkey wants terrorist attacks from both the PKK and ISIS?

Mano posted:

I think it's something like:
They were happy to be rid of Mubarak.
They were happy to try something like an "Islamic democracy" and Morsi seemed to want to do that.
But Morsi soon did a hard-right into islamistic, which for many went too far.
Ergo when he was overthrown they were also happy. Not that they really like the police state in effect now.

Torrannor posted:

Also, the more the PKK engage in terrorism in Turkey, the higher his chances to succeed with either banning the HDP, or making them unpopular enough that they fail to clear the 10% hurdle in the soon-to-be called next elections.

Panzeh posted:

I think the problem is most of the middle class liberal student crowd in the Mid East like the idea of democracy but chafe at the thought that most people in the country are more conservative and religious than them so they're happy to throw democracy away when they realize that.

suboptimal posted:

That's a pretty good summary, except it was more like a lot of younger, middle-class Egyptians were happy to see Morsi get elected, flirted with religiosity, and then when Sisi stepped in, they suddenly became pro-army, all the way. The vast majority of Egyptians are really happy to just go with whatever way the wind is blowing, and there have been a number of members of the liberal intelligentsia who have criticized other so-called "liberals" for hitching themselves back on the military bandwagon.

Al-Saqr posted:

You know, nothing says 'good person' more than someone who lives in the lap of democratic luxury, telling other people that they should be enslaved under military fascism and that their friends should be killed and tortured and that their country should become a fascist shithole.

What an amazing scion of human enlightenment and progressiveness you are. What an incredibly principled person of virtue you are.

The problem with even trying to debate people like this, is that fundamentally they are unprincipled sociopaths. They SUPPORT mass murder, they SUPPORT fascism, they SUPPORT torture, forced disappearances, total socio-economic collapse, based off of a fantastical and utterly deluded notion that as long as it's done by someone who they think is 'secular' then it's better off than any room for doubt a free society might entail. There's no point in taking people like this seriously, because at the end of the day they don't view their target of hate as human beings who deserve to shape their own destiny at all with all the foibles that will naturally happen along the way. No matter how many pictures and videos of piles of dead, tortured, exiled and disappeared persons who ARE the leftists, Secularists, and liberals they pretended to support, that apparently doesn't matter, what matters is that a general with shiny medals gets to murder people they consider filth and that's good enough in their eyes. Also Hilariously ignoring that this guy is supported by Gulf Royals, who are hardly the sentinels of enlightened secularism.

Please, I don't know what happened to you in your life to have this kind of outlook in your life, but I really suggest you start developing a sense of principles that entail things like human rights and democracy, you DO know that you can be against ALL forms of oppression right? you CAN be against all dictatorships of all different styles right? please try to be on the side of human rights, freedom and democracy as PRINCIPLES rather than supporting bloodthirsty tyrants based off of some kind of delusion.

Anyways, on to the main topic, RE:Sisi

The popularity of Sisi is the same kind of popularity enjoyed by any poo poo middle eastern dictator including hosni Mubarak, he will never lose an election, he will always gain over 90% of votes and will always win an opinion poll until everything collapses around him. There is no doubt about that. Even students abroad will sing the praises of him, because when you live in a situation that has GDR levels of informants and Surveillance, when you live in a situation where mass death sentences are a thing, when you OWN COLLEGE CAMPUSES can now have ARMED police stationed inside it to arrest and take anyone who tries to start a protest, you are going to have this kind of situation. If I were a student and you asked me about what its like to live under an absolute monarchy I'd be dancing a merry jig about how awesome it is to prevent what would absolutely happen if I said otherwise.

Don't forget, the main reasons why the protests against Morsi were as big as they were was not because of how amazing SISI was but because

A) Morsis mistakes

B) the police deep state actively sabotaged the country in terms of security, electricity, gas, etc. which lead the swing population (the people who don't really care either ways who rules) against him

C) the whole Tamarrud thing was a front supported by the business/media/police/Gulf Royal cash as what was evidenced by the leaks and recordings released since then.

D) the main thrust of activists and revolutionaries of JAN25 (basically the people who can mobilize street protests) were successfully tricked into believing that the MB were the bigger threat to them rather than the military fascist regime. Even people like baradei, ayman nour, etc. were created as a false sense of national unity to present the possibility of a national unity government.

So what has happened since then?

The military fascists wasted no time destroying group (D) and the MB in all of it's shapes and forms, the MB (as in, a group of about a million people) as a whole were declared a terrorist organization, everybody who presented any kind of challenge or threat were killed, imprisoned, exiled, etc. Baradei is out of the country, Ayman Nour is out, All the mosques fired all the preachers who wouldn't toe the line, All the liberal secular activists such as April 26, and famous leftists were outlawed and imprisoned or killed, all the media was suppressed and banned, everything resembling even a hint of political activism or free though has been drowned out in blood, and the judiciary have literally been turned into Kangaroo courts throwing death sentences for anything and everything. Even that clown Bassem Yousef, liberal darling, got banned entirely and threw in the towel. A shocking number of writers where revealed to be class A hypocrites. And now, the military regime is putting Egypt in an eternal war against itself thanks to its failures in the Sinai, so it's something they can crush any kind of dissent by making unthinking people afraid of being on the side of 'terror'.

So, like this, the largest group of people who are activists and political movers were destroyed as a whole. When you speak with them now (whoever got away with their lives) they didn't realize or want what Egypt has turned into since june 30.

The main group now who support Sisi are the main group who have always been with the military fascists, the business moguls (who own the media), the police state and their main base of supporters in the moneyed elite and beurucrats. group (B) the people who don't care either ways, are getting their gas and electricity thanks to the unrelenting support of the gulf monarchies who have essentially turned Egypt into their beggar slave, so these people will always be in favor of who they think have power over them, this is always been a classic quirk in many societies brutalized by decades of fascism. They will always shout your praises until your state collapses they mount your head on a pike.

So when you have this situation, when opposition means instant death and torture, what was the one way we could guess the genuine popularity of Sisi?

Well, as you guys saw, the hilarious presidential elections that nobody came out for and that the turnout was so hilariously low they extended the vote by a day and pretty much forged the numbers to make it seem not too embarrassing. That above all tells you what you need to know about how genuine the feelings are towards this bloodthirsty fascist.

The fact that the Police state is now enacting laws such as declaring all dissenters to the president as apostates, that all religious establishments be answerable to only SISI, that Egypt itself has turned into a fascist nightmare and a literal fuedalist slave state in order for the military to maintain control is the biggest evidence any of you need on whether sisi and his gang are genuinely popular or not. You will always find sheep minded people who will bleat their praises so long as they think that they wind is in their direction this especially in Egypt has been typical of any country afflicted by fascists for so long, but as you guys see, in every facet of human development, security, economy, Egypt is only getting worse off and is going down the long road of a collapse, you can only count on your tanks, gulf royal money and your Mukhabarat for so long before you eventually get whats coming.

My Imaginary GF posted:

Nothing says "bad person" like individuals who make excuses for authoritarian-minded islamists who allow Al-Qaeda to return to their territory.

suboptimal posted:

Your friendly reminder that Mohammed Al-Zawahiri was released by SCAF in March 2012- a full three months before Morsi got elected.

Oh, and also, AQ-inspired groups were in the Sinai and elsewhere long before the 2011/2012 elections, or even the Jan. 25 revolution.

Warbadger posted:

A lot of Egyptians legit believed the promises made by the MB prior to the election and were pretty upset at the new government when it took a hard right despite the assurances that it wouldn't. A lot of people also figured Morsi was consolidating power to the presidency and dragging the country into a way more conservative government than they wanted. The military swept in after the big protests started up and things began to look ugly again and were welcomed by a shitload of people who felt betrayed by the Morsi government. At least that was my impression from talking to people while I was there.

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Useful for understanding the turkey/pkk/kurds dynamic.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I don't think I'd seen that insignia for Team Barzani before. I knew I was cheering for the right group.

suboptimal posted:

That's a pretty good summary, except it was more like a lot of younger, middle-class Egyptians were happy to see Morsi get elected, flirted with religiosity, and then when Sisi stepped in, they suddenly became pro-army, all the way. The vast majority of Egyptians are really happy to just go with whatever way the wind is blowing, and there have been a number of members of the liberal intelligentsia who have criticized other so-called "liberals" for hitching themselves back on the military bandwagon.

Al-Saqr posted:

Stuff

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I don't think I'd seen that insignia for Team Barzani before. I knew I was cheering for the right group.

Al-Saqr posted:

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Useful for understanding the turkey/pkk/kurds dynamic.

Gravel Gravy posted:

If I could hazard a guess I imagine that Turkey is in good standing with the Iraqi Kurds because they enjoy their own autonomic status in Iraq and hold no overt ambitions outside that border?

My Imaginary GF posted:

Nothing says "bad person" like individuals who make excuses for authoritarian-minded islamists who allow Al-Qaeda to return to their territory.

Volkerball posted:

It's certainly not because they have their own autonomy in Iraq, which is something Turkey has always frowned on due to what it could do to give Kurds within Turkey ideas. It has to be partly in that Barzani has said the right things to Erdogan when it comes to things like Kurdish expansion, but I think the biggest factors were geopolitical realities that both Erdogan and Barzani acknowledged. Both of their relations with the current Iraq government were degrading, and both knew that there were tremendous benefits to be had through mutual trade and investment. Today Iraqi Kurdistan is perhaps the most important foreign government to Turkey's economy, as I believe they are the #1 importer of Turkish products. There's also massive oil deals between the two, as well as arms flowing from Turkey to the KDP. It happened really quickly, but I think it's already to the point that the KDP is an indispensable ally to Erdogan.

FaustianQ posted:

It's almost like a potential Kurdistan doesn't have to be a big scary monster for Turkey if it's handled with some dexterity.

Al-Saqr posted:

Liberal_L33t posted:

Hell, if it hadn't been for Napoleon doing basically the same thing to the Catholic Church, it would have slowed European social progress by another hundred years.

quote:

The United States has decided to allow airstrikes to defend Syrian rebels trained by the U.S. military from any attackers, even if the enemies hail from forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, U.S. officials said on Sunday.

The decision by President Barack Obama, which could deepen the U.S. role in Syria's conflict, aims to shield a still-fledging group of Syrian fighters armed and trained by the United States to battle Islamic State militants -- not forces loyal to Assad.

But in Syria's messy civil war, Islamic State is only one of the threats to the U.S. recruits. The first batch of U.S.-trained forces deployed to northern Syria came under fire on Friday from other militants, triggering the first known U.S. airstrikes to support them.

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to confirm details of the decision, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, said the United States would provide offensive strikes to support advances against Islamic State targets.

The United States would also provide defensive support to repel any attackers.

mediadave posted:

Considering there are only - what - 10? US trained rebels left at this point I don't think this is a big issue.

fade5 posted:

So assuming this is true and pans out, something kinda very, very, very big is happening:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKCN0Q803Y20150803

So looks like we might finally be in for Libya 2: Syria Edition.

On the one hand, this is a huge escalation and kinda makes me nervous. On the other hand, there's no way Assad can actually win at this point, so the only question is how long Syria burns in the meantime. On the other other hand, unlike in Libya there's no way to quickly end the war in favor of the rebels, so this may cause continued fighting.

And who knows what Iran is gonna say/do in response.

False Flag Rape posted:

they are all terrible and deserve what is happening.

False Flag Rape posted:

In a decade when a dozen kurds fly a couple of airliners into The Statue of Trump in new york harbor and we go balls deep into new kurdistan for a decade of occupation and justifiably kill 110k of the goddamn kurds all y'all cocksuckers are gonna be like 'we shouldn't have armed some loving bunch of desert dwellers' and we will be arming the 'yerds' or the 'kababs' or whatever to kill the kurdofacists or whatever.
no one in that part of the world is worth supporting. they are all terrible and deserve what is happening.

False Flag Rape posted:

In a decade when a dozen kurds fly a couple of airliners into The Statue of Trump in new york harbor and we go balls deep into new kurdistan for a decade of occupation and justifiably kill 110k of the goddamn kurds all y'all cocksuckers are gonna be like 'we shouldn't have armed some loving bunch of desert dwellers' and we will be arming the 'yerds' or the 'kababs' or whatever to kill the kurdofacists or whatever.
no one in that part of the world is worth supporting. they are all terrible and deserve what is happening.