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Rand alPaul posted:I think we found the worst 2016 Projection: BP's PECOTA projections are calling for a 91-win Tampa Bay season, among other...interesting outcomes.
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Feb 16, 2016 17:39
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Inspector_666 posted:BP's PECOTA projections are calling for a 91-win Tampa Bay season, among other...interesting outcomes. God drat. I don't think KC is gonna repeat or anything, but 76 - 86 seems a bit extreme. Jesus.
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Feb 16, 2016 17:54
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alpha_destroy posted:God drat. I don't think KC is gonna repeat or anything, but 76 - 86 seems a bit extreme. Jesus. I think this will be a theme for the next two years. Then in 2018 they'll all project the Royals to have 97 wins and they'll win 55.
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Feb 16, 2016 17:59
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Between losing Zobrist and Cueto for Kennedy I can see them losing maybe 4-5 wins, but 20+ is ridiculous.
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Feb 16, 2016 18:03
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lmao at any projection that even remotely suggests that we could win the division by early September
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Feb 16, 2016 18:04
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Poque posted:lmao at any projection that even remotely suggests that we could win the division by early September I dunno, I've been a Cub fan for going on 30 years now, I've seen some good...some bad, some really bad, and some worse. Didn't even bug me when the Cubs went all Cubs during the NLCS, I had seen it before and I was resigned to fate after game 1. That said, with all the hype and years of buildup- and now the numbers to go along with it....  I'm going to be so let down this year.
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Feb 16, 2016 18:22
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If projections counted for anything the Mariners would have actually made the playoffs sometime in the last decade
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Feb 16, 2016 18:35
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I hope the cubs do as well as these zany projections say. While the Brewers are rebuilding I'm pretty much a cubs fan by default because someone has to beat the cardinals and it's sure not gonna be the Pirates.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:21
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Julio Cruz posted:Between losing Zobrist and Cueto for Kennedy I can see them losing maybe 4-5 wins, but 20+ is ridiculous. I can see it really not liking Dyson and Infante starting every day and wouldn't be surprised if it is not high on their 3B platoon and starting pitching staff since that group has been pretty volatile in their career/are old/are returning from injuries. Also, there's this BP posted:Our staff didn’t want it. It’s not just that when we polled our writers for their own Royals predictions—before PECOTA had been run—not one of them went as low as 76. It’s not even that not one of them went lower than 80, or that only one of 27 responses was lower than 85, or that the plurality response was 90, or that the average was 88. Also, as Nate Silver pointed out, baseball projection systems are getting worse at predicting things. It could be the influx of young talent or the focus of many teams on platooning a lot. Who knows.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:25
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Hasn't PECOTA been generally regarded as poo poo for years now?
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Feb 16, 2016 19:31
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IcePhoenix posted:Hasn't PECOTA been generally regarded as poo poo for years now? I mean, dude was never an all-star, but it's not like he beat his wife. What's your problem with him?
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Feb 16, 2016 19:44
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I think JD Martinez is probably going to end up with more than 0.6 wins this year.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:53
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Everblight posted:I mean, dude was never an all-star, but it's not like he beat his wife. What's your problem with him? Ever since he made partner he's been phoning it in. Gritt's the real heart and soul of the firm.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:54
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IcePhoenix posted:Hasn't PECOTA been generally regarded as poo poo for years now? Ever since Silver left BP, pretty much.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:59
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IcePhoenix posted:Hasn't PECOTA been generally regarded as poo poo for years now? It was sligthly better than ZiPS in 2015 according to this article: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/1/14/10733872/steamer-zips-pecota-marcel-projections-review The fact that Marcel finished 2nd is not a good sign for the other projection systems since Tango only does enough to keep the system marginally accurate compared to other projection engines and doesn't spend a lot of time with it. Tom Tango posted:Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:00
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Ice To Meet You posted:I think JD Martinez is probably going to end up with more than 0.6 wins this year. On the other hand, it's probably right that James McCann will be one of, if not the, worst players in MLB. Which will be great given how dumbly popular he is in the Detroit media for being tough and a leader!!-!
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Feb 16, 2016 20:01
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:If projections counted for anything the Mariners would have actually made the playoffs sometime in the last decade  I need to look at historical projections. Usually I feel projections have the Mariners 2nd or 3rd and it's national beat writers that put the Mariners as a dark horse candidate to win the west and are always wrong.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:03
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Why is UZR lame? I remember agreeing with the reasoning, but can't remember why.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:04
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Fleetwood posted:Why is UZR lame? I remember agreeing with the reasoning, but can't remember why. It doesn't account for shifts, right?
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Feb 16, 2016 20:07
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New Concept Hole posted:It doesn't account for shifts, right? Fangraphs posted:Also, the data includes whether a shift (a generic one, in the opinion of the “stringer” – the person recording the data) was on, and whether the shift likely affected the play at all. If it did – again, according to the “stringer”- then the play is ignored. The biggest issue is it doesn't account for positioning. If your fielding coach plays you in a certain position for a specific reason (like Cameron Maybin having to make up for playing between Nick Swisher and Nick Markakis at the end of last season), you might not get to balls UZR considers catchable for other players. Maybin may not have been able to catch balls he normally would if the Braves weren't playing it safe in different situations because of Swisher and Markakis' limited ranges (just a hypothetical). Better to give up a single that Maybin can cut-off than give up doubles because the left or right field gap isn't getting properly covered by the corner outfielders. Also, balls of the wall are up to the "stringer" as to whether or not they were "catchable". I don't like this because some players will play a ball off the wall differently depending on the situation. It may be better to let the ball hit the wall and try to minimize the damage if you're up several runs rather than risk mistiming the play and giving the batter or a base runner an extra base if you don't get it. tadashi fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 20:24
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That must have been it, thanks.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:25
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It seems like all defensive stats are still way too subjective at this point. Maybe with the new statcast data we'll see them get better in the nearish future. Defensive stats are probably inherently always going to be iffy/require a couple years of baseline data collection though.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:25
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Rand alPaul posted:I think we found the worst 2016 Projection: loving lol if anyone thinks the white sox will hit 90 wins and KC will finish 2nd
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Feb 16, 2016 20:26
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Inspector_666 posted:It seems like all defensive stats are still way too subjective at this point. Maybe with the new statcast data we'll see them get better in the nearish future. Defensive stats are probably inherently always going to be iffy/require a couple years of baseline data collection though. I hope someone who has worked with the data more will chime in but my understanding is that the stringer might be watching the game via tv or streaming, letting them cover several games per day, which means that the type of hit (line drive vs. fly ball) and where/how they record the play can be affected by the camera angles they have access to. My feeling is that, like many advanced stats other than wOBA or wRC+, UZR is a pretty good guide but you still need to check what the perception of a player is. If you only read UZR, you might thing Trout isn't that amazing good at fielding and you might think that Hechavarria suddenly learned how to play his position. But overall, I don't think you can argue with it on the aggregate. tadashi fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 20:28
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Fleetwood posted:Why is UZR lame? I remember agreeing with the reasoning, but can't remember why. The collection of data points is done subjectively and the process of manipulating the data is not transparent.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:38
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Inspector_666 posted:It seems like all defensive stats are still way too subjective at this point. Maybe with the new statcast data we'll see them get better in the nearish future. Defensive stats are probably inherently always going to be iffy/require a couple years of baseline data collection though.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:48
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PECOTA is tearing Baseball internet apart. Comes as no surprise as its codename was SKYNET.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:49
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BP must be projecting some massive power numbers for the Cubs if they're going to lead the NL in runs scored by 30+ and give them the #2 SLG by .01 while having the #12 batting average in the NL.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:58
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Fleetwood posted:Why is UZR lame? I remember agreeing with the reasoning, but can't remember why.
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Feb 16, 2016 21:05
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UZR also requires 3 years worth of data to be normalized, so you can have a guy who can go -10, -15, then suddenly a +25 UZR season and by golly he's an elite defender!
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Feb 16, 2016 21:26
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Dubious posted:loving lol if anyone thinks the white sox will hit 90 wins and KC will finish 2nd Like PmP said, if the White Sox sign/trade for an outfielder 90 wins isn't out of the question. They've got at least a top 10 MLB rotation, and going from below replacement level to a positive at 2B, 3B, and OF should make a huge difference. angrygodofjebus fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 21:35
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Last year, no one was expecting the Cubs to do well, so they were playing free and loose and benefited from it. This year, EVERYONE is expecting them to win the division. The stage is set for them to collapse under the weight of the city's massive expectations.  I really don't want to be so pessimistic about their chances, but this franchise hasn't exactly given me a reason not to be.
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Feb 16, 2016 22:09
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Kevlar v2.0 posted:I really don't want to be so pessimistic about their chances, but this franchise hasn't exactly given me a reason not to be. Would this man let you down?  That bird there? Worth 16 wins!
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Feb 16, 2016 22:30
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who was expecting the Cubs to be bad last year besides Cubs fans?
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Feb 16, 2016 22:31
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Groucho Marxist posted:who was expecting the Cubs to be bad last year besides Cubs fans? Anybody who claims that they expected to get last season's results any earlier than this season is a liar
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Feb 16, 2016 22:40
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There is a wide gulf between bad and 97 wins
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Feb 16, 2016 22:41
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I thought the Cubs were still a year away from doing anything. Russell wasn't supposed to come up, Schwarber wasn't supposed to be up, the bullpen dudes pitched great down the stretch, and Arrieta turned into Death Incarnate. Everyone here is championship or bust this year and that's not how baseball works and when they struggle te pressure will strangle this team like a python.
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Feb 16, 2016 22:51
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Groucho Marxist posted:who was expecting the Cubs to be bad last year besides Cubs fans? I think the general consensus was that they'd be better than 2014 but were still a year away from contending. Then every single thing that could go right for them did and what everyone thought would be a .500 team wound up with the 3rd best record in the NL.
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Feb 16, 2016 22:53
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Someone post that image of the wins Lester and Maddon provide
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Feb 16, 2016 22:58
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Cubs will be super fun and good this year, but they will never win a world series.
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Feb 16, 2016 23:02
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