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Play posted:You're an absolute moron who gives support to the worst actors in the region and yet still manage to climb up on your high horse at every opportunity. I don't know whether it comes from Russian fetishism, myopic self-regard, misguided anti-imperialism, or good old fashioned stupidity. I don't really care either. Even worse for me personally, your rhetoric is tiresome and simplistic. You've never demonstrated that you have anything to contribute. Nobody in this thread has been interested by a single thing that you have to say. This is the plain honest truth, you suck. but but but Al-Qaeda!
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Oct 17, 2016 08:46
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The battle for Mosul has started. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37674693
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Oct 17, 2016 10:05
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Play posted:You're an absolute moron who gives support to the worst actors in the region and yet still manage to climb up on your high horse at every opportunity. I don't know whether it comes from Russian fetishism, myopic self-regard, misguided anti-imperialism, or good old fashioned stupidity. I don't really care either. Even worse for me personally, your rhetoric is tiresome and simplistic. You've never demonstrated that you have anything to contribute. Nobody in this thread has been interested by a single thing that you have to say. This is the plain honest truth, you suck. Yeah and? I'm sorry that you can't handle the fact that some people don't blindly support the destruction of states in the middle east just because the US doesn't like them anymore.
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Oct 17, 2016 11:12
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEzElUL8LmM good discussion on US Middle East policy from the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs
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Oct 17, 2016 11:20
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Do we know what groups are participating in this Battle for Mosul? I thought I read several pages ago that the PKK was involved for some reason. Seems like lots of groups will want in that might not like each other much. Turkey and PKK, Peshmerga and Iraqi army, Iran-backed Shia militia and US advisors...
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Oct 17, 2016 11:56
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How much of Nusra are still the same AQ people of old and how many of those have died off and have been replaced with new recruits from Aleppo who's main reason for joining is trying to get Assad and Putin to not firebomb their homes every day? I can't imagine they'd not have some form of demographic shift going through 5 years of high attrition warfare.
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Oct 17, 2016 12:00
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Considering that Al Nusra has maintained control of a significant portion of Syrian territory and population for ~5 years there's a good chance that they've been able to recruit and indoctrinate a whole new generation of jihadists. They aren't just a militia, but have ambitions of creating and maintaining their own state which they have gone about doing via education/training of the youth in the territory they control.
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Oct 17, 2016 12:14
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rear end struggle posted:I don't hate Kurds, I hate Kurdish commie terrorists and think they should be autocannoned. Sorry that the YPG and PKK are the only successful leftist organizations in the Mid East right now.
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Oct 17, 2016 12:32
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Count Roland posted:Do we know what groups are participating in this Battle for Mosul? I thought I read several pages ago that the PKK was involved for some reason. I hadn't seen anything about the PKK, but if they were there, it'd be really small presence anyways. It is going to be a really tense situation. Abadi said that only the Iraqi Army and National Police will actually enter the city, and if ISIS folds really quickly, that may actually end up being the case. But if the fighting drags on and on, we could see some of those types of policies becoming pipe dreams, and the internal divisions will really start to show themselves. The US claimed that 15k Sunni militiamen are being trained to secure the city once it has been liberated, which would be a really positive step, but I'm not sure how much effort is going into making that a reality. This operation could go unbelievably smoothly, or it could be a trainwreck. It's too early to tell. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 13:02 on Oct 17, 2016 |
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Oct 17, 2016 12:58
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thatfatkid posted:Considering that Al Nusra has maintained control of a significant portion of Syrian territory and population for ~5 years there's a good chance that they've been able to recruit and indoctrinate a whole new generation of jihadists. They aren't just a militia, but have ambitions of creating and maintaining their own state which they have gone about doing via education/training of the youth in the territory they control. Al Nusra and groups like it tend to be rely more heavily on foreign volunteers than more moderate groups but I don't think anyone has ever known concretely the composition of many of the rebel groups. Aleppo city itself has always had the majority of population in government hands. TheNakedFantastic fucked around with this message at 13:05 on Oct 17, 2016 |
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Oct 17, 2016 13:02
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thatfatkid posted:Considering that Al Nusra has maintained control of a significant portion of Syrian territory and population for ~5 years there's a good chance that they've been able to recruit and indoctrinate a whole new generation of jihadists. They aren't just a militia, but have ambitions of creating and maintaining their own state which they have gone about doing via education/training of the youth in the territory they control. I'm not sure how much you consider significant but they control a relatively small percent of the Syrian overall population.
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Oct 17, 2016 13:08
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https://twitter.com/moegarmyani/status/787990681595813888
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Oct 17, 2016 13:23
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This is literally the worst loving idea. Ostensibly US allies fighting each other, empowering Iran, Turkey becomes an utter mess and the US tries desperately to ignore it while issuing meek statements of "lets just get along guys".
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Oct 17, 2016 13:29
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FaustianQ posted:This is literally the worst loving idea. Ostensibly US allies fighting each other, empowering Iran, Turkey becomes an utter mess and the US tries desperately to ignore it while issuing meek statements of "lets just get along guys". I think Abadi is just talking tough to appease the Shia nationalists in Iraq. Turkey is likely playing a big role in training whatever Sunni force it is that is going to be securing Mosul in the aftermath. Turkey is more likely to achieve progress on that front than the Shia militias. Rudaw is streaming Mosul. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wcKAD5bUPw
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Oct 17, 2016 13:33
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FaustianQ posted:This is literally the worst loving idea. Ostensibly US allies fighting each other, empowering Iran, Turkey becomes an utter mess and the US tries desperately to ignore it while issuing meek statements of "lets just get along guys". I'm pretty sure the going thought is Turkey really isn't an ally anymore. There's been a noticeable shift in both Iraq's tone towards them and the US ignoring said tone. We have to stay cordial while we have forces still stationed there, but no one expects Turkey to remain a member state of NATO now. gently caress 'em.
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Oct 17, 2016 13:35
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VikingSkull posted:I'm pretty sure the going thought is Turkey really isn't an ally anymore. There's been a noticeable shift in both Iraq's tone towards them and the US ignoring said tone. We have to stay cordial while we have forces still stationed there, but no one expects Turkey to remain a member state of NATO now. Turkey is pretty strategically important overall and especially so for the Middle East. Like, the process of Turkey losing NATO membership requires a lot of really terrible things to happen in the process, so there is no realistic way that Turkey will ever be ejected within our lifetimes. Quote me in the future when it does happen though, I'd need the reminder on why everything can get worse.
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Oct 17, 2016 13:41
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FaustianQ posted:This is literally the worst loving idea. Ostensibly US allies fighting each other, empowering Iran, Turkey becomes an utter mess and the US tries desperately to ignore it while issuing meek statements of "lets just get along guys". This is actually good because Turkey wants the Kurds under heel.
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Oct 17, 2016 13:47
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The best way for Erdogan to get what he wants with regards to the Kurds is to play nice with the US. But strongman gotta strongman.
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Oct 17, 2016 13:51
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Maybe I'm being naive here but I don't think you guys understand the geopolitical impact of the US dropping Turkey but still trying to keep the strategic assets in the area. The US will not drop Turkey, they'll just be cold to each other and it'll make the US's relationships in the middle east awkward.
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Oct 17, 2016 13:55
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcYxVjQSCMY Looks like a normal day at Burning Man to me.
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Oct 17, 2016 14:16
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FaustianQ posted:Maybe I'm being naive here but I don't think you guys understand the geopolitical impact of the US dropping Turkey but still trying to keep the strategic assets in the area. The US will not drop Turkey, they'll just be cold to each other and it'll make the US's relationships in the middle east awkward. It's not that NATO is going to eject Turkey, obviously NATO understands the geopolitical importance of the area. The problem is Turkey is slowly sliding under the Russian sphere of influence. There's a reason the US moved the nuclear weapons that had been there for decades, and it's not simply just because of the coup.
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Oct 17, 2016 14:20
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Play posted:Wow, besides support for the Saudis in Yemen the US sure is looking like the most decent user of force in the area. Not sure I ever could've comprehended that possibility five years ago. Is this satire? The US playbook has been to invade, bomb, or back sunni jihadists in functioning states and leave behind chaos, warlords and sectarianism. You are nuts. Regimes like Gaddafi's, Sisi's, the Sauds, and the Israelis should certainly be overthrown but not replaced with chaos. The US is either incapable (if you take the non cynical view) or prefers the latter. mila kunis fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Oct 17, 2016 |
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Oct 17, 2016 14:46
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The Turkish army is bigger than the rest of non-US NATO combined. Without Turkey NATO would have been outnumbered by the Warsaw Pact.
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Oct 17, 2016 14:58
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Throatwarbler posted:The Turkish army is bigger than the rest of non-US NATO combined. Without Turkey NATO would have been outnumbered by the Warsaw Pact. The Russians will be pouring through the Fulda Gap any day now. Its been 25 years. Warsaw Pact holy gently caress. Erdogan is only going to get worse, his slide to despotism has been consistent. His support for anti-US jihadist groups is undeniable. He is still strategically important, but the US would be wise to find another airbase to police the region when Erdogan has been willing to shut down Incirlik
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Oct 17, 2016 15:05
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Coldwar timewarp posted:The Russians will be pouring through the Fulda Gap any day now. Its been 25 years. Warsaw Pact holy gently caress. Erdogan is only going to get worse, his slide to despotism has been consistent. His support for anti-US jihadist groups is undeniable. He is still strategically important, but the US would be wise to find another airbase to police the region when Erdogan has been willing to shut down Incirlik The US could potentially do this with Rmeilan, as it's in theory the only other good option, but doing so is a very strong statement vis a vis Turkish-Kurdish relations. Throatwarbler posted:The Turkish army is bigger than the rest of non-US NATO combined. Without Turkey NATO would have been outnumbered by the Warsaw Pact. The Turkish Army would have meant very little IMHO in a cold war gone hot scenario. I'm not even talking about Nukes, the Turkish army would have been to far away and too easily cut off to make a difference. Same pretty much holds nowadays as well, except it's slanted even more hilariously in US favor because Russia lacks the ability to project it's forces anywhere near as well as it could during the Cold War.
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Oct 17, 2016 15:29
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I am actually watching a war unfold live on Youtube. This loving world.
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Oct 17, 2016 15:30
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thatfatkid posted:Yeah and? I'm sorry that you can't handle the fact that some people don't blindly support the destruction of states in the middle east just because the US doesn't like them anymore. Those quotes are pretty strongly pro-Assad duderino. I'm curious, how long have you been following this thread for? To those of us who followed it since the beginning, when Assad was massacring peaceful protesters by the thousands and entire units of his army were defecting, we already know that Assad is the reason for the season. Have you seen the Google Maps photos of the mass graves being dug by bulldozers outside the death camp? The Google Maps of the mass-demolition of homes, entire neighborhoods flattened as a means of collective punishment? Surely you've heard of those tens of thousands of photographs of the victims, men, women, and children showing obvious signs of torture & starvation with the number card stamped next to them? You know the yard where they get photographed? Did you know it's literally within view of the balcony of Assad's Presidential Palace?
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Oct 17, 2016 15:35
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Looks like the Iraqi and Kurdish forces have already made gains towards Mosul.
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Oct 17, 2016 15:42
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https://twitter.com/RusEmbUSA/status/788018895567413248
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Oct 17, 2016 16:11
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tekz posted:Is this satire? The US playbook has been to invade, bomb, or back sunni jihadists in functioning states and leave behind chaos, warlords and sectarianism. You are nuts. I'm curious, do you believe that the US is intentionally destabilizing the Middle East with its military actions? Coldwar timewarp posted:Erdogan is only going to get worse, his slide to despotism has been consistent. Yeah... sucks right? Obama and him used to be friends. Obama would call him and ask him for advice during the beginning of his presidency. He won't be Turkey's Assad, but he's probably gonna be Turkey's Putin. Hell, kind of already is.
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Oct 17, 2016 16:19
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Easy to mock, I know. Chechnya is ruled by a brutal strongman who assassinates journalists. Hardly an ideal outcome, right? One thing the Russians learned from the Chechen Wars is that, in order to defeat an insurgency, you have to give some of your enemies a seat at the table, buy off & placate the warlords that you can, and use local guys to keep order. There's a video of Kadryov beheading a captured Russian soldier during the First Chechen War. Awkwaaaaaard. If you're a Russian and you want fewer Russian soldiers getting decapitated, what's the most pragmatic policy action? You buy em off. Put em on the dole. Make concessions to them. You bring everyone willing to negotiate in good faith to the table and THEN you can militarily defeat the holdouts. If any pro-Russian lurker or poster is reading this, does it occur to you that Russia's most effective policy solution to the Chechen conflict was to put a former jihadist in power? And it turned out the guy was more interested in fancy cars and tacky jewelry than implementing Sharia Law?
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Oct 17, 2016 16:29
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Play posted:I loved someone's effortpost about Iranian conspiracy theories and the general attitude there. It's really sad but Iran and Russia really do have a lot in common in that way. If only the Revolution hadn't happened as it did. The fact that American police was so much to blame for that is hard to accept. Well, Iran and Russia went through different types of revolutions but the outcome ended being the same poo poo. I'm surprised Iran and Russia don't have closer ties than they do, but I suppose there are more factors at work to prevent such a thing. Overall, if the Iranian regime does something really lovely and outright terrible, they are certainly to blame and there's no real excusing that, but the people shouldn't necessarily be held responsible. They made a mistake in the 70s and majority of people I've met that had protested and were involved in the skirmishes then and those whom had fought in the war ended up losing the fervour and hope they had for their country and ended up hating the regime. Russia is a bit different, socially and geopolitically, but their attitude usually involves total indifference to political activism to the point of not voting in a semi-secular society with a better economic weather than Iran.
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Oct 17, 2016 16:33
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VikingSkull posted:I'm pretty sure the going thought is Turkey really isn't an ally anymore. There's been a noticeable shift in both Iraq's tone towards them and the US ignoring said tone. We have to stay cordial while we have forces still stationed there, but no one expects Turkey to remain a member state of NATO now. Yeah, no one, right. Turkey wasn't thrown out of NATO for invading Cyprus, it won't be thrown out for some troops in Iraq.
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Oct 17, 2016 16:40
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Sergg posted:I'm curious, do you believe that the US is intentionally destabilizing the Middle East with its military actions? I think that US strategy is incoherent, and different factions both within the US deep state and its allies are attempting to pull it in different directions. The end result is what I've described, and is the ideal for some (for example, Israel, who are happily aiding jihadists within Syria).
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Oct 17, 2016 16:43
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Doctor Malaver posted:Yeah, no one, right. So when they cut ties with NATO what are we gonna do, tell them they can't leave? No one is ejecting them, they are moving on a path to increased relations with Russia at the expense of NATO.
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Oct 17, 2016 16:44
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lol http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-14/goldman-sachs-wins-libya-investment-fund-s-1-2-billion-lawsuit
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Oct 17, 2016 16:51
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uncleKitchener posted:Overall, if the Iranian regime does something really lovely and outright terrible, they are certainly to blame and there's no real excusing that, but the people shouldn't necessarily be held responsible. They made a mistake in the 70s and majority of people I've met that had protested and were involved in the skirmishes then and those whom had fought in the war ended up losing the fervour and hope they had for their country and ended up hating the regime. Anecdotes ain't data of course, but my wife is Iranian (born in the UK, spent a few years as a child in Iran, family still have ties and business in Iran and so go back and forth) and so I've met a fair number of British Iranians/Iranians who live in Britain, and one thing worth noting is that even Iranians who are against the current regime are very nationalist and tend to support the Iranian government when it comes to things like foreign policy and their nuclear programme. Indeed the most secular Iranians I know are the most aggressively nationalistic and revanchist. (That said, I don't think there is particularly any monarchist yearning in the UK community like there is in America). They do also as a rule hate 'Arabs', in particular Saudis. If you pressed them they'd probably clarify it's just the rulers they hate. As I said, this is just my impressions from the irregular subsection of international Iranians that I have met and talked with. (Politics always comes up in conversation). mediadave fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Oct 17, 2016 |
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Oct 17, 2016 17:00
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Sergg posted:There's a video of Kadryov beheading a captured Russian soldier during the First Chechen War. Awkwaaaaaard. 
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Oct 17, 2016 18:00
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Throatwarbler posted:The Turkish army is bigger than the rest of non-US NATO combined. Without Turkey NATO would have been outnumbered by the Warsaw Pact. lolz I'm gonna be lazy and quote wiki stats instead of looking them up elsewhere, but... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Military_personnel NATO 3,585,000 United States 1,369,532 Turkey 620,473 NATO - US - Turkey: 3,585,000 - 1,369,532 - 620,473 = 1,594,995 1,594,995 > 620,473, so sorry, you're wrong. If you also count reserve personnel you get even wronger: 4,067,688 vs 1,041,900. Deployable military? 1,651,000 vs 494,000. Defense spending? 287,385 vs 22,618. More wiki stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union sure some of them aren't actually in NATO, but they're mostly irrelevant anyway (Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta and Sweden) and inversely some NATO members aren't in the EU (Canada, Iceland, Norway, plus the US and Turkey obviously). And if you dig for stats for when the Warsaw Pact was actually a threat (and a thing that existed at all) you'll find Europe a lot more militarized than after a quarter century of "peace dividends". The main reason Turkey has a big army now is because they haven't gone through the same demilitarization that Europe did after the end of the Cold War.
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Oct 17, 2016 18:34
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How would a turkey Iran conflict go down with iraq as the theater of conflict
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Oct 17, 2016 18:42
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