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Pinterest Mom posted:why are you leaning so much into an argument that's obviously untrue nah
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Nov 17, 2016 20:28
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Asiina posted:nah asiina.
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Nov 17, 2016 20:28
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do you think if we took a sample of, say you and me our post counts would be higher when we're town than when we're scum, on average
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Nov 17, 2016 20:28
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I'm a special case.
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Nov 17, 2016 20:28
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sure but you exist and you're driving the correlation i have a very strong prior belief, having not done the actual data gathering etc, that people are more likely to lurk as scum than as town
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Nov 17, 2016 20:31
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Pinterest Mom posted:do you think if we took a sample of, say You, maybe. Me, most likely although I do lurk as town sometimes like I ended up leading town (to crushing defeat) in cloaks but barely posted for two entire gamedays. Some people play scum by going on the offensive and just posting so many goddamn words that your eyes just glaze over (see Kash and Madman in Ecco's soldiers game) Some people lurk no matter what. Some people only shitpost as one or the other alignment. There's no one hard and fast rule.
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Nov 17, 2016 20:31
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Also if we're going to bring stats into this, you can't use correlation, which works in the aggregate, to bring down to individual behaviour where just cause there's a correlation that means any one person's postcount is telling of their alignment. Also, I mean, if we're really going to stats this up, you shouldn't do correlations with a categorical variable, an ANOVA would be more appropriate.
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Nov 17, 2016 20:36
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I'm just saying P(scum|lurking) > P(scum), not that P(scum|lurking) = 0.8 or whatever e for notation Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Nov 17, 2016 |
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Nov 17, 2016 20:40
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incidentally, P(scum|math) > P(scum), for me Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Nov 17, 2016 |
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Nov 17, 2016 20:41
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Nov 17, 2016 20:53
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Pinterest Mom posted:sure but you exist and you're driving the correlation making lurkers a priority dunk target seems like a good way to lose quickly. yes, scum lurk. so do town. TMMadman posted:OK. So what is your suggestion to deal with lurkers? i think that we should kill the players who seem most likely to be scum if at some point i feel better about the active posters than i do about a low-content poster who, i guess, hasn't been modkilled or replaced then i would dunk that lurker.
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Nov 17, 2016 20:57
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Dick Bastardly posted:Madman, do you draw a distinction between non-posting versus low-content/low-volume of posts in a given day? How do you define lurking exactly? I'll open this question unto anyone who wants to put their two cents on it.
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Nov 17, 2016 20:58
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boy oh boy what a productive conversation this push has fostered. hey, anyone want to talk about millers while we're at it?
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Nov 17, 2016 20:59
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Dick Bastardly posted:I'll open this question unto anyone who wants to put their two cents on it. fewer posts than the mod. or 'i know it when i see it.'
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Nov 17, 2016 21:00
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Somberbrero posted:aaaaHHHHHHHHH I feel like I usually enjoy Somber's game presence when he's town and that he comes off as really aggressive when he's scum. (This is partially the truth and partially me playfully trolling Somber with a meta read  )
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Nov 17, 2016 21:08
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Murmur Twin posted:##unvote this is ridiculous because of course i'm not sure. i'm making an educated guess. i don't know if chores is town but i don't see an argument for him being scum because no one has made one. the argument for him is that he's a lurker and let me say it again, 
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Nov 17, 2016 21:09
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J don't be a lunatic
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Nov 17, 2016 21:09
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Somberbrero posted:this is ridiculous because of course i'm not sure. i'm making an educated guess. I think the case was fine for an educated guess, I just find it suspicious how hard you're pushing it that given that it was mostly based on my first two game-related posts.
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Nov 17, 2016 21:15
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Murmur Twin posted:I think the case was fine for an educated guess, I just find it suspicious how hard you're pushing it that given that it was mostly based on my first two game-related posts. oh okay let me try this.  game is hard. could be murmur twin idk idk. maybe asiina? she's engaging speculative game theory arguments but not making many if any calls to alignment, ah geez i'm not sure. why is she just talking about maths instead of scubs?
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Nov 17, 2016 21:19
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Murmur Twin posted:I think the case was fine for an educated guess, I just find it suspicious how hard you're pushing it that given that it was mostly based on my first two game-related posts. "Your case was based on my posts" is an odd bone to pick
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Nov 17, 2016 21:20
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Murmur Twin posted:I think the case was fine for an educated guess, I just find it suspicious how hard you're pushing it that given that it was mostly based on my first two game-related posts. How do you feel about Ernie?
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Nov 17, 2016 21:22
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Somberbrero posted:oh okay let me try this. Math is good and cool. Also I agree with you and I don't think ur scummy. I dunno, I've had a super rough night and day and may replace out depending what happens when I go back to the vet in about an hour to see if I can bring my cat home.
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Nov 17, 2016 21:24
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I feel like that I've been dominating the rhetoric in a lot of games I play, especially in the early game, so I decided to take a step back and let other voices chime in. To my surprise, I am still the dominant point of conversation in this game. How exciting. I don't want to overtly insert my commentary to a very interesting discussion, but I would like to emphasize that I publicly made two alignment calls, even if I am withholding the cases for now, and have demonstrated my involvement of the game by promptly responding to things I feel necessary to respond. Why are lurkers bad? Because they don't pay attention to the game, and because they're difficult to read. I'll continue following the game, nominating individuals I suspect are scummy, and generally having opinions for you to form your opinions on whether I'm towny or scummy.
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Nov 17, 2016 21:33
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chores, could you please make a succinct argument for keane? like, anything at all.
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Nov 17, 2016 21:41
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Lmao
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Nov 17, 2016 21:41
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I think "He's a rogue cop, with nothing to lose" says it all.
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Nov 17, 2016 21:56
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Wow this is like a super serious day 1. It's hard to keep up with this many wordy posts.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:00
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Seriously though, I think I know where Keane might be going with that, but I think it would be spoiled if discussed openly. At least for today.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:02
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I am also interested to see what Chores has to say, if anything more, on Keane.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:03
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Chores is envious of my good looks. You might say they are...roguish good looks. The good looks of a rogue cop with nothing to lose.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:21
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CCKeane posted:I'd back you. CCKeane posted:What's your case on MMT again? I remember thinking "hhmmmmm yes" but I forget the details and as a rogue cop with nothing to lose, I'm very lazy. alright, so looking back through keane i get the argument. it's hard because he loves to gently caress around, especially early, but there are a ton of white-noise contentless posts he makes over the course of the game that give the illusion of contribution without actually putting forward any real opinions. i've highlighted another issue here, i'm a little confused why he backed up the murmur vote without having an actual read on here? or being able to remember the case? i'd put murmur first, followed by keane, with ernie as a distant third. i'm giving asiina a pass today if she has poo poo going on(almost like there are sometimes oot factors that influence posting volume that don't correlate to alignment? must investigate further) as frustrating as i find tmm's posting i do think he's town. it feels like we're just talking past each other. i'd like to see some actual reads from other players though.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:23
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Dick Bastardly posted:I am also interested to see what Chores has to say, if anything more, on Keane. hey dick, top three scum picks and why. doesn't have to be long.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:24
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AnonymousNarcotics posted:Wow this is like a super serious day 1. It's hard to keep up with this many wordy posts. a lot of words saying nothing. top three scum picks and why please. if you can't think of three i will accept a cash donation as well.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:25
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Somberbrero posted:alright, so looking back through keane i get the argument. it's hard because he loves to gently caress around, especially early, but there are a ton of white-noise contentless posts he makes over the course of the game that give the illusion of contribution without actually putting forward any real opinions. i've highlighted another issue here, i'm a little confused why he backed up the murmur vote without having an actual read on here? or being able to remember the case? I didn't forget your case I wanted you to restate it, for my own mysterious purposes.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:30
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CCKeane posted:I didn't forget your case I wanted you to restate it, for my own mysterious purposes. well that's less than reassuring i have mystical engagements later this evening so i most likely won't be here for deadline, it'd be great if we could get a consensus going now.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:35
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 Current Day 1 Votecount Murmur Twin (3): Somber, Keane, -Somber, Somber, PMom Tired Moritz (2): Ernie, -Ernie, TremTa, stickup Somberbrero (2): TMM, MMT Ernie (1): Max, PMom, Dick, Moritz, Somber, -Max, -Moritz, -Somber, -PMom Asiina (1): Ernie CCKeane (1): MMT, chores, TremTa, -MMT, -TremTa TMMadman (1): Max, -Max, Anon Dick Bastardly (1): Max Pinterest Mom (1): Moat, TMM, -TMM Moatillata (0): stickup, PMom, Moat, -Moat, -PMom, -stickup Max (0): TMM, -TMM chores (0): MMT, -MMT  With 15 alive it takes 8 votes to execute. Day 1 deadline: Thursday, November 17th, ~11PM EST. That's in a little more than 6 hours from this post.
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Nov 17, 2016 22:39
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there aren't a lot of people i wouldn't vote for rn really
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Nov 17, 2016 22:47
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Somberbrero posted:hey dick, top three scum picks and why. doesn't have to be long. Did a re-read and to be honest I can't say I see anything that jumps out at me as "oh yeah, 100% scum slam dunk" material. I've cooled on Ernie, I appreciate the list he put up and after reading it again I've decided to ##unvote I don't really like Pmom's play so far, his voting feels very opportunistic to me. The only content with any real weight seems to revolve around an argument about a correlation of scumminess to lurkiness, which isn't a great argument imo but especially D1 when it isn't even apparent that lurkiness is habitual or damaging to town in any case thus far. Fisk's insistence on votes for Ernie being bad kind of feel like a scumbro attempting to take the pressure off of another scumbro, because at that time in the game, I don't think those votes were that bad based on the information we had to go on. I'd really like to see more participation by Fisk (by participation, I mean actual reads/cases). I'd also like to call out Moat for some sore substantial contributions to the hunt.
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Nov 17, 2016 23:03
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right, that guy i'd vote for him
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Nov 17, 2016 23:05
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wait i thought db was tm i might not want to vote db but this was still real bad: Tired Moritz posted:##unvote
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Nov 17, 2016 23:05
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