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That would be my general assumption tbh, however the relative stickiness of the undecided number this deep into the campaign is making me wonder if they'll just stay away on polling day - I'm beginning to get more confident about a yes win as the campaigning heats up and people start voicing distaste about the debate, soft no voters may stay away rather than pitch their lot with an increasingly strident campaign. But of course referendum polling is infamously barely worth the paper its written on
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May 17, 2018 11:51
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kustomkarkommando posted:That would be my general assumption tbh, however the relative stickiness of the undecided number this deep into the campaign is making me wonder if they'll just stay away on polling day - I'm beginning to get more confident about a yes win as the campaigning heats up and people start voicing distaste about the debate, soft no voters may stay away rather than pitch their lot with an increasingly strident campaign. I buy this analysis, shy Tory effect is the kind of thing that exists more in the fever dreams of pollsters and pundits than it is actually borne out in psephology. Still, absolutely zero room for complacency. Also, I'm willing to contribute to a Kickstarter for people to turn that giant "NO" into a "KNOB" or "NO POPE" or something
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May 17, 2018 13:39
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NO POPE would be great. I do think it will be a low turn out vote, its an issue most people don't want to think about. There's a phenomenon I've noticed in town, and that's that normal people, who look like functional members of society are walking around with yes badges on, and the kinds of person who you see on the street wearing a no badge are basically piss stained lunatics. I'm cautiously optimistic that Yes will win, it'll be slim though. I think the No side literally don't have the kind of social presence that they had in years past. They are dying out. They are grossly over represented in the media, the why of that I'm not sure of though. Something to do with wealth, power and class.
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May 17, 2018 14:57
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What worries me, purely from conversations with people, is the amount of men who say they're voting yes but are very unsure of their reasoning, and who don't have confidence in women. They know it's the right thing to do, for many reasons, but feel aggrieved for some reason at the realities of abortion. This can come down to the 12 week limit, the 24 week FFA/risk to life limit, one person said a former girlfriend had an abortion and he wanted to be there for her but she made her decision (and he felt he should have had some say,) etc. All these men felt it was right for a woman to decide but felt like they weren't being heard in their own doubts (which is a little ironic, to me at least.) The only outright "No," I've heard of in conversation is from an absolute charmer who said if he had to decide between "the death of my unborn child or my wife, I'd choose the child's life." So he'd let his wife die. That almost gave me the gawks. It's these men, who say they'll vote yes but don't have confidence in their reasoning, the system that will come, or as is in many cases, the actual decision and care of the woman, who have me worried.
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May 17, 2018 15:05
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That's one of the reasons why I have a sneaking suspicion that if FF forces an election before the 12 weeks proposal goes through the dail (which is entirely possible) they might pick up some "I believe in balance" voters to take the teeth out of legislation.
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May 17, 2018 15:24
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lol at John watersquote:Waters: “What we’re talking about here is not the philosophical question of when life begins or whatever. What we’re talking about here is are we going to destroy the right to life of the child in the Constitution? http://www.thejournal.ie/john-waters-eamon-dunphy-4018829-May2018/
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May 17, 2018 18:55
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Nice meltdown
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May 17, 2018 19:10
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Two Bad Men
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May 17, 2018 19:35
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The (final?) polls: Red C/Sunday Business Post  B&A/Sunday Times  Looks like a nice little bounce back for Yes as the voting date nears - lots of aggressive twitter arguing from No campaigners about how the polls don't matter. Also interesting table in the old B&A poll  Godless baby killing Dublin. In somewhat related news up North, the SDLP have passed a motion allowing members / elected officials a conscience vote on abortion while reaffirming its pro-life policy - so no whipping against reform. Former leader, staunch pro-lifer and big old loser Alasdair McDonnell already voicing his "confusion" over the decision. Not that it amounts to much but shows the ripple effects the campaign has had up this way.
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May 20, 2018 17:32
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I submitted my change voting area form in plenty of time but I still got a voting card for my old area. Got nothing for the new one yet.....so where should I vote?
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May 20, 2018 18:39
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julian assflange posted:I submitted my change voting area form in plenty of time but I still got a voting card for my old area. check the register
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May 20, 2018 19:10
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WeAreTheRomans posted:check the register I did and I am not on the website for either...
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May 20, 2018 19:33
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julian assflange posted:I did and I am not on the website for either... It can be really fiddly with your name and address, like my surname has an O' and I had to try multiple combos of apostrophe/no apostrophe, space/nospace, capitalisation, etc before it found me. Same with address, it's hilariously, stupidly sensitive
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May 20, 2018 21:50
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Yeah I tried everything and since the last few weeks nothing works. I have a voting card for somewhere at least so I’m on the register for sure which is the main thing
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May 20, 2018 21:58
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This Garda shooting story sounds pretty sketchy. He had a knife but RTÉ are reporting he was in a 'driver' at the time of the shooting. Are we going to turn into the US where cops become judge, jury and executioner?
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May 21, 2018 17:59
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Bedshaped posted:This Garda shooting story sounds pretty sketchy. He had a knife but RTÉ are reporting he was in a 'driver' at the time of the shooting. That's Judge Dredd you're thinking of
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May 21, 2018 18:13
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WeAreTheRomans posted:That's Judge Dredd you're thinking of A dystopian society of endless crime, violence and desperation? No I'm pretty sure I was right the first time.
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May 21, 2018 18:21
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I got my voting card. Roll on Friday muthafuckas
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May 21, 2018 19:09
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Another debate on the telly tomorrow at half nine, Simon Harris and Mary Higgins from Together for Yes with Cora Sherlock from PLC and, rather hilariously IMO, Peadar Toibin from SF for No. Lots of promises it won't be as big a car crash as the Claire Byrne one but seems doubtful. TV3 also has another one on Wednesday chaired by fecking Pat Kenny
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May 21, 2018 19:44
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kustomkarkommando posted:Another debate on the telly tomorrow at half nine, Simon Harris and Mary Higgins from Together for Yes with Cora Sherlock from PLC and, rather hilariously IMO, Peadar Toibin from SF for No. I'd rather take a bath in my own boiling piss, thanks though.
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May 21, 2018 20:37
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WeAreTheRomans posted:I'd rather take a bath in my own boiling piss, thanks though. Are you denying the powers of persuasion of Simon Harris?!
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May 21, 2018 20:54
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julian assflange posted:I got my voting card. Roll on Friday muthafuckas  OP.kustomkarkommando posted:Are you denying the powers of persuasion of Simon Harris?!
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May 21, 2018 21:28
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irlZaphod posted:
It's essentially the Defence of the Dark Arts gig from Hogwarts. I'd say between the cervical cancer thing and the referendum and the usual HSE shitshow he prays for death every night
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May 21, 2018 21:40
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irlZaphod posted:Harris is increasingly looking like death lately. Department of Health is a poisoned chalice. It's an unfortunate effect of his political ideology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoSlRf1NtGw
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May 21, 2018 22:35
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irlZaphod posted:Harris is increasingly looking like death lately. Department of Health is a poisoned chalice. That's just the effects of turning 30
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May 21, 2018 23:03
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kustomkarkommando posted:That's just the effects of turning 30 
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May 22, 2018 06:39
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Just read that this guy that was shot dead was only carrying a stanley blade and not a knife as was earlier mentioned. This really seems to be a Garda fuckup because it beggers belief that the only way to resolve that situation was by shooting him. I know most people won't give a poo poo because he likely murdered someone but this is still pretty hosed up.
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May 22, 2018 10:53
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I'm hesitant to blame the Gardai. I don't think they shot to kill, they are trained to shoot at the body mass since it's the largest target. We don't really know what the situation was. And yeah, he likely murdered someone but there's no justice in his death.
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May 22, 2018 11:36
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irlZaphod posted:I'm hesitant to blame the Gardai. I don't think they shot to kill, they are trained to shoot at the body mass since it's the largest target. We don't really know what the situation was. Aiming at center of mass is shoot to kill, all police forces do it because it results in fewer ricochets and poo poo. Chances are good that he shouldn't have been shot. A detective or the armed response unit are the only possible shooters so who knows what the circumstances actually were.
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May 22, 2018 14:03
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Just read that this guy that was shot dead was only carrying a stanley blade and not a knife as was earlier mentioned. This really seems to be a Garda fuckup because it beggers belief that the only way to resolve that situation was by shooting him. I know most people won't give a poo poo because he likely murdered someone but this is still pretty hosed up. I don't know that a Stanley blade is any less lethal than a switchblade tbh. No doubt there'll be an inquiry anyway. This isn't the LAPD so I'm willing to give the ERU the benefit of the doubt that maybe the murdering rapist didn't act responsibly and allow himself to be arrested without the use of force. We'll see though.
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May 22, 2018 14:10
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WeAreTheRomans posted:I don't know that a Stanley blade is any less lethal than a switchblade tbh. I would disagree that a stanley blade is equal to or more lethal than a switchblade. The things are fragile as gently caress and extend less than a couple of inches. Gardai in a normal uniform would have to be massively unlucky to suffer severe injury from one. I'm not saying it's not dangerous but comparing it to an actual bladed weapon is disingenuous.
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May 22, 2018 16:31
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lemonadesweetheart posted:I would disagree that a stanley blade is equal to or more lethal than a switchblade. The things are fragile as gently caress and extend less than a couple of inches. Gardai in a normal uniform would have to be massively unlucky to suffer severe injury from one. I'm not saying it's not dangerous but comparing it to an actual bladed weapon is disingenuous. I should have said "significantly less lethal" tbf. I don't think it's reasonable to say that a Garda should be looking at the business end of a Stanley blade and thinking "ah that'll be grand". Less lethal doesn't really matter, it can still easily end your life. The converse applies to "less lethal" approaches used by law enforcement like rubber bullets etc.
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May 22, 2018 18:12
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Given the circumstances I'm not sure if in the same position I'd see a killer with a blade and recognise it's not a proper knife and only a stanley blade.
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May 22, 2018 20:00
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lol the PLC lady dropped out so RTE balanced the debate by just trimming it down to Simon Harris v Peadar Toibin Two men in the final head to head debate. Nice rte.
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May 22, 2018 21:41
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kustomkarkommando posted:lol the PLC lady dropped out so RTE balanced the debate by just trimming it down to Simon Harris v Peadar Toibin Let's just hope they don't get all emotional and testerical
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May 22, 2018 21:46
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This referendum is making me so mad it’s incredible. If a No bully squad arrives at my house this evening I will explode.
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May 23, 2018 08:36
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The debate last night was a bit more restrained than last time - Toibin chatting shite naturally and completely deflected questions about his attitude towards terminations for rape (and at one point seemed to support decriminalisation randomly inbetween directly blaming FG for abortions happening) and Harris did a decent job even if he still looks like a young Mr Burns and talks far too fast. No side v upset RTE turned down Maria Steen to rep for No twice in a row - now she's pulled out of the TV3 debate.
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May 23, 2018 08:57
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kustomkarkommando posted:lol the PLC lady dropped out so RTE balanced the debate by just trimming it down to Simon Harris v Peadar Toibin Toibin was so full of poo poo, deflecting the rape question 3 times, blaming FG for the criminalisation clause in the PLDP Act even though it's required by the 8th (I'm glad Harris spoke up about this), and also blaming FG for causing women to have to travel for "socio-economic reasons" even though women have been travelling for 35 years. They are so scared shitless to admit that in cases of rape, they want to force survivors to carry to full-term. On the subject of the socio-economic reason for travel, does anyone know if what they were saying was true about the Commission report citing that as the main reason for travel? https://twitter.com/JOBrien_SF/status/999032420858023937
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May 23, 2018 09:11
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kustomkarkommando posted:The debate last night was a bit more restrained than last time - Toibin chatting shite naturally and completely deflected questions about his attitude towards terminations for rape (and at one point seemed to support decriminalisation randomly inbetween directly blaming FG for abortions happening) and Harris did a decent job even if he still looks like a young Mr Burns and talks far too fast. Why did they turn down Steen?
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May 23, 2018 10:44
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Von Linus posted:Why did they turn down Steen? Also she's back in the TV3 one.
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May 23, 2018 10:49
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