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I got a little bored and I decided to do some projections with Kicktraq. Kicktraq's got their own methods, but what I did was looked at 7 near-peer kickstarters* to see how they tended to grow from the first day and the first three days to the end of the campaign to try to bracket the likely outcomes we're going to see. There was one particular kickstarter that seems to have the same 'shape' of funding curve and I'll refer to that one as the closest-comparable. *Near-peer in this case I defined as "Tabletop-based kickstarters, with significant miniatures for content, from an existing property or company with a decent amount of advance/hype warning, that raised between 1-4 million dollars in total"; that's about as fine a categorization that I wanted to make for this, since I only quickly found 7 comparable kickstarters**. Some things I found: As far as Backers go, all of these kickstarters increased the number of backers at the end of the kickstarter relative to the first day number of backers by between +76% and +188%, while the increase in number of backers at the end relative to the total first three days is between +41% and +99%. The closest-comparable kickstarter increased by +124% and +46% respectively. This projects that the Battletech kickstarter, which had 3,869 backers after three days, is likely to end up between 5,200 and 7,200 backers, with the closest-comparable multiplier putting it at ~5,700 backers. (Note: For those bold ones I'm using the mean +/- 1 standard deviation, not maximum/minimum, hence me saying 'likely') Dollars-per-backer is an interesting stat. There was a pretty sharp bifurcation between kickstarters that didn't see a jump in $/person throughout, and kickstarters that did, almost binomial. The ones that did saw between a 40% increase and 90% increase in money-per-backer between the first three days and the end. The closest comparable was at the low end of that, at +43% increase in dollars per person between the first three days and the final. This projects that the Battletech kickstarter, which was at $194.62 dollars per backer after three days, could easily end up with anywhere from $212 to $360 dollars per backer at the end, with the closest-comparable multiplier putting it at $286.06 dollars per backer. And as far as total money goes, all of these kickstarters had a final take between 2.4-4.2x their first day totals, and between 1.88-2.94x their three-day total. This correlates better with the dollar-per-day stats than the extra backer stats, indicating that the main thing that'll decide where in the range this ends up is how good the last days of the kickstarter are at coaxing more money out of existing backers. This projects that the Battletech kickstarter, which was at $752,970 after three days, is likely to end up between $1.44 million and $2.01 million, with the closest-comparable multiplier putting it near the lower end of that range, $1.58 million. Now, those are just numbers, and numbers always lie, so don't take them as gospel. My own expectation, given the adroitness with which CGL has been doling out stretch goals and such, is that they'll probably be a little better at milking $/person out than this would expect, but a little worse at attracting new backers. I'm going to say we end up right around 5,500 backers, $300/backer, for a total haul of $1.65 million. I'll update this probably Thursday once the first-week numbers are in to see if the conclusions change. **The full list: The 2nd and 3rd Reaper Bones Miniatures kickstarters, Batman: Gotham City Chronicles, Cthulhu Wars Onslaught 2, A Song of Ice and Fire Tabletop Miniatures Game, Bloodborne the Board Game, and the closest-comparable so far is Assassins Creed: Brotherhood of Venice based on the shape of the curves after 3 days Mukaikubo fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Jul 21, 2019 |
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Jul 21, 2019 00:44
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You should update these numbers on August 6th and see if anything changes. Catalyst is going to be ramming this KS down GenCon's throat.
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Jul 21, 2019 00:48
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Strobe posted:You should update these numbers on August 6th and see if anything changes. Catalyst is going to be ramming this KS down GenCon's throat. Yeah, I intend to do it at the 7-day mark (the 18th), the 14-day mark (25th,) 21-day mark (8/1), etc. The final days push is a huge wildcard, because none of these other comparable kickstarters was timed so that the endgame rush coincided with a con. I'm skeptical about just how MUCH that'll boost things as far as new people coming in, but that's part of why I'm personally expecting the amount per person to jump from 200-300 dollars by the time the dust settles.
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Jul 21, 2019 00:51
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GenCon is the primary reason I'm currently pledged at $150 instead of $300, and I bet that a pretty significant chunk of those $1 tier backers are just waiting to see how many Lance packs they need to get. 
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Jul 21, 2019 01:01
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That's pretty interesting info: thanks.
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Jul 21, 2019 02:01
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Xotl posted:That's pretty interesting info: thanks. No worries. Grain of salt because every campaign's different, but If This Proceeds Similarly To Past Comparable Campaigns (tm) it brackets the expectations nicely.
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Jul 21, 2019 02:05
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Any good batreps of people playing this?
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Jul 21, 2019 08:13
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Oh hey, they picked the right Banshee variant. https://twitter.com/CGL_BattleTech/status/1151974068708675585
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Jul 21, 2019 12:13
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Gotta go with the coolest variant. They're trying very hard to make the Dragonfly look less goofy, too (just fixing the arms is a big help).
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Jul 21, 2019 14:12
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As much as I love the original look of the first Omnis, they did suffer from noodle-arm syndrome a lot.
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Jul 21, 2019 14:19
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Death to the shoulder/hip combo joint.
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Jul 21, 2019 17:20
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Der Waffle Mous posted:Oh hey, they picked the right Banshee variant. It makes sense. There IS no updated Banshee other than the S line.
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Jul 21, 2019 18:39
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It's true. And then down the line we get the 8S, which I'm not too sure about in Total Warfare but is hilarious in the best ways in Alpha Strike.
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Jul 21, 2019 18:42
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It's not a bad unit but I'm not sure why the WoB designed it when the Berserker was already being built two production lines to the left.
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Jul 21, 2019 19:09
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I don't know if they have already looked at the Kit Fox design, but I hope they borrow a bit of the torso-twisty version from MechCommander, which I think looks a lot better than the original. Given what they did for the Dragonfly I'm hopeful
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Jul 22, 2019 06:19
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I'll be satisfied if they find the Cauldron Born's lost hips. They disappeared somewhere in the transition from the original MW2-era design to the sleeker MW4 design to the current tabletop miniature.
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Jul 22, 2019 12:21
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What level is everyone backing at? I've been eyeing Star Captain + adding on the AGOAC box set that came out last year (which seems to be nigh-ungettable here in Europe).
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Jul 22, 2019 14:45
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I'm at Bloodnamed but may bump up to Star Colonel if I can afford to after GenCon.
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Jul 22, 2019 14:53
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I'm just buying an add-on. I have no need for another rulebook or anything else in the intro box.
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Jul 22, 2019 17:52
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Ah gently caress it, I went ahead and went Bloodnamed. Found a group to play with again this week so I'm excited to jump back into the action.
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Jul 23, 2019 02:14
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Defiance Industries posted:I'm just buying an add-on. I have no need for another rulebook or anything else in the intro box. I'm tempted to do this and grab all the minis from the two starter boxes, since I never bought those and they're all I want out of them anyway
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Jul 23, 2019 02:17
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Anyone know who's the artist who did the token art for the BattleTech 4th Edition box? They were great redesigns of the 3025 mechs but never were adopted or reused anywhere else, far as I can tell.
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Jul 23, 2019 05:47
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That's a good question. The 4th ed rulebook doesn't specifically credit the token artist.
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Jul 23, 2019 05:51
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Drone posted:What level is everyone backing at? I've been eyeing Star Captain + adding on the AGOAC box set that came out last year (which seems to be nigh-ungettable here in Europe). Try Aries Games and Miniatures. I usually get good service from there, even including the cost of postage across the pond. Ral Partha does provide good service for the UK, given that it's a UK based business (that used to be based in a small shop in Liverpool which I used to go to), but never seems to be up to date with the latest offerings.
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Jul 23, 2019 08:31
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The Kickstarter campaign at first glance does look great. Going to wait though until all backers get their stuff and I can just buy these mechs normally through an online store. Extremely weary of Kickstarter because no product has to actually be delivered and more often then not never is or is terrible quality.
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Jul 23, 2019 13:51
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40 Proof Listerine posted:Anyone know who's the artist who did the token art for the BattleTech 4th Edition box? They were great redesigns of the 3025 mechs but never were adopted or reused anywhere else, far as I can tell. I'm not totally sure, but I think it was Chris Moeller. http://www.sarna.net/wiki/Category:Works_by_Chris_Moeller
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Jul 23, 2019 16:07
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I said come in! posted:The Kickstarter campaign at first glance does look great. Going to wait though until all backers get their stuff and I can just buy these mechs normally through an online store. Extremely weary of Kickstarter because no product has to actually be delivered and more often then not never is or is terrible quality. I'm the same way, but Catalyst games has been solid on actually delivering. This isn't some pie in the sky idea or a full reboot of the franchise or whatever, just an addition to what's already going on. Your money's safe with them.
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Jul 23, 2019 16:13
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I said come in! posted:The Kickstarter campaign at first glance does look great. Going to wait though until all backers get their stuff and I can just buy these mechs normally through an online store. Extremely weary of Kickstarter because no product has to actually be delivered and more often then not never is or is terrible quality. I get the hatred of kickstarter, but saying it is more often than not is some extreme hyperbole. It happens less than rarely. The most common issue is long delays. I've never had an issue with production quality of any product. Game quality can vary wildly, and many turn out to be stinkers. Don't see how that is a factor here. All that said, since the KS is going to have to create plastic molds for all these mechs where virtually all the costs are upfront, I can't forsee any issue with waiting for later.
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Jul 23, 2019 16:49
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Threw in $290, I don't particularly care about the minis (nobody to play with) but I do want all the novellas and such. Also decided to purchase the addon to name a character since the add-on seems to come with artwork too, and the faction pack for the shirt and such.
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Jul 23, 2019 23:17
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Sky Shadowing posted:Threw in $290, I don't particularly care about the minis (nobody to play with) but I do want all the novellas and such. Also decided to purchase the addon to name a character since the add-on seems to come with artwork too, and the faction pack for the shirt and such. Isn't the $300 level just better than getting that ala carte in the add-ons?
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Jul 23, 2019 23:39
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Mugaaz posted:Isn't the $300 level just better than getting that ala carte in the add-ons? They don't mention the character art in the $300 tier, that one is only mentioned in the $600 tier. If I can shout out to CGL to see if the 200 addon is just the 300 character stuff, I'll switch happily.
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Jul 24, 2019 00:18
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Sky Shadowing posted:They don't mention the character art in the $300 tier, that one is only mentioned in the $600 tier. Yeah, it is bit unclear. Worth checking on.
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Jul 24, 2019 00:52
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Sky Shadowing posted:They don't mention the character art in the $300 tier, that one is only mentioned in the $600 tier. $300 totally has the canon character
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Jul 24, 2019 02:03
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BULBASAUR posted:$300 totally has the canon character He wants the canon character + art. The art part is in the $500 and the $200 add-on, but not clear it is in the $300 one or not.
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Jul 24, 2019 04:49
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Mukaikubo posted:I got a little bored and I decided to do some projections with Kicktraq... quote:No worries. Grain of salt because every campaign's different, but If This Proceeds Similarly To Past Comparable Campaigns (tm) it brackets the expectations nicely. So, after 8 days, This Is Not Proceeding Similarly To Past Comparable Campaigns.  It is pretty significantly outpacing them, and at this point 2 million seems to be coming into play. Here's why:How much did the total money brought in by these kickstarters increase from the 1st day total to the first-three-days total? pre:Kickstarter Gain,3-day to 1-day Bloodborne The Board Game +76% Battletech Clan Invasion +62% Assassins Creed Brotherhood of Venice +53% Batman: Gotham City Chronicles +42% Reaper Bones II +34% ASOIAF Tabletop Miniatures Game +33% Reaper Bones III +31% Cthulhu Wars Onslaught 2 +28% pre:Kickstarter Gain, 3rd-to-8th day Battletech Miniatures +34% Bloodborne The Board Game +32% Reaper Bones III +24% Reaper Bones II +16% Cthulhu Wars Onslaught 2 +14% Batman: Gotham City Chronicles +13% ASOIAF Tabletop Miniatures Game +13% Assassins Creed Brotherhood of Venice +9% So where does that leave the projection? Well, the dollars-per-person projection is staying firm, because there the kickstarter looks to be on a typical glide path. That *should* end up higher than it is now by a reasonable amount, between $220 and $340/person. That's tightening because we're getting reasonable data. A closest-comparable of about $270/person at the end still seems a fair guess. The backers are out the window. I had said up to about 7200; with the first week's data in, now the *median* projection is up at 7100, with a +1 standard deviation at 8100. It all depends on if the train of backers keeps coming in at an unsustainable rate. I didn't think it would, and I was clearly wrong as heck. Putting the guess near the high end of that range, at 8,000, doesn't seem too unreasonable. But, uh... let's see, 8,000 backers, $270/person, that comes out to... ah, $2.16 million. And that's inside the bounds of the money projection. Again, it's jumped up a ton, and it now spans $1.6-$2.25 million, so that estimate would be on the high side. Again, it's all down to the crazy number of people that have hopped on board. If GenCon taps into another wave of people like the other kickstarters didn't get, $2.1-2.2 million is easily plausible; if things peter out and we start behaving more like other miniature kickstarters, somewhere in the $1.8-2.0 million range is more likely. This is pretty shenanigans-y, in a good way. (For reference: Kicktraq's projections now have error bars between $1.8-$3.0 million. I just don't see 3 million as plausible, though I could be wrong; it'd require probably at least 10,000 backers *and* a late surge in $/person without any more miniature bonuses to come. But 2 million I can see, no question, though it's hardly guaranteed!)
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Jul 26, 2019 00:22
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MechCitizen
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Jul 26, 2019 03:17
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So I’m at the Bloodnamed $150 tier, if we hit the 1.5m tier, and unlock Choose Your Own Double Forces, would there be reason to up to a higher tier than that?
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Jul 26, 2019 03:54
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Taintrunner posted:So I’m at the Bloodnamed $150 tier, if we hit the 1.5m tier, and unlock Choose Your Own Double Forces, would there be reason to up to a higher tier than that? There are currently 16 Lance/Star packs, minimum. If you like more than four of them, yes.
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Jul 26, 2019 04:30
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I am at the 95 dollar tier and debating if I want to add on any extra Mech packs or just buy them in a few years at retail. Honestly, stupid faction dice are calling to more more than they should. I have been repping House Liao and Clan Diamond Shark for nearly 20 years now, and it seems a shame not to get faction stuff for both. If Bloodnamed get to where you can pick whatever mechs you want instead of doubling them it will be a no brainer to upgrade.
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Jul 26, 2019 13:43
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Here's my attempt in painting up the first of my new plastic mechs:   Working on my Locust next 
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Jul 27, 2019 20:54
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