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Grouchio posted:My dad thinks Russia's going to invade Ukraine on the basis of 15k troops waving invasion stripes. Is this provocation or an occupation of the Donbass? Russia is not going to invade Ukraine: the military cost, occupation of a hostile population (ending up a DNR/LNR is not appealing) and the international response would be the end of Russia, not Ukraine There's a decent chance that Putin might recognize DLNR before the elections to boost his ratings or something, but that will be the end of the Minsk agreements and an embarrassment to Germany/France. Right now Putin is waiting for Nord Stream 2 to finish and hoping that Le Pen wins in France and the Russia-understanders in Germany, an aggressive escalation would not be good, seems more like he is throwing a tantrum so that USA pays attention to him and makes him feel strong and important
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Apr 16, 2021 08:28
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Economic disparity between Russia and Ukraine is even bigger than that between Armenia and Azerbaijan fwiw, think there are limits to what the Ukrainian army could achieve on the defense.
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Apr 16, 2021 12:40
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Somaen posted:Russia is not going to invade Ukraine: the military cost, occupation of a hostile population (ending up a DNR/LNR is not appealing) and the international response would be the end of Russia, not Ukraine
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Apr 16, 2021 13:24
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The Federation could dissolve due to internal strife or a putch. These things happen.
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Apr 16, 2021 13:38
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Grouchio posted:How would it be the end of Russia if they have nukes? The end of Russia economically, not that the Ukrainian army would push to Moscow. Even back in 2014 when Ukraine was politically decapitated, extremely polarized and with barely an army, Russia did not push too far because of the political cost of coffins coming back and the economic sanctions that were put, and then you also had massive "just exercises" on the border of Ukraine where they were preparing for an invasion while evaluating how costly it would be to create a Novorossija, so instead they had to be coy with the "it's local tractorists and miners with tanks from the black market". An open invasion now would be impossible to hide, violate the Minsk agreement and the Ukrainian army is dug in and very motivated to fight a defensive war, Russia would be sanctioned to hell and have to deal with the economics of fighting the Ukrainian army, occupying a population that does not want to be a part of Russia or any bandit republics and explaining to the Russian population how we are the good guys in this offensive war while the coffins keep piling up and the money is drying up. This isnt how Putin operates, he's a coward and only goes in with overwhelming odds. I was being dramatic with the end of Russia, but it would really push the country's global image into the "monkey with a grenade" territory with a large possibility of consequences Somaen fucked around with this message at 13:45 on Apr 16, 2021 |
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Apr 16, 2021 13:42
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General Russian populace might be entertained by some dead ukrainians burned to ash in 4k for a brief time but 1) even the dumbest hicks at this point know that war wont bring food/consumer product prices down 2) once zinc caskets start coming with poor fuckers who signed contracts (or even draftees who were used in 2014), the reaction would be quite sour
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Apr 16, 2021 13:48
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fatherboxx posted:General Russian populace might be entertained by some dead ukrainians burned to ash in 4k for a brief time but Does anyone in Russia besides their families, who lost their beloved, care about the slow but steady attrition of Wagner mercenaries? I do not know and can not think of anywhere to ask but here.
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Apr 16, 2021 19:09
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A few weeks ago I mentioned some anti-covid(-restriction) protests in Estonia. Unsurprisingly that movement is led by some folks who were active during 2007 bronze statue riots, this time under the guise of "concerned parents organizations". Their tales of woe and oppression through the hands of security guards in malls and the police during protests is further propagated by loads of different groups and fake accounts on facebook. And of course in Sputnik and other Russian media. By oppression I mean for example those people going to shopping malls with selfie sticks+cameras and trying to get in without a mask, provoking security guards and if they get lucky, the police as well. One short clip is in the header of this article: https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/...-ketukat-anumas To make their cause seem more just, all kinds of snake oil and weather control device salesmen, conspiracy nuts and other crazies have hopped aboard. Because if there is anything that helps against covid, it's group hugs in front of the parliament building. They also come out with signs saying things like "FREE ESTONIA" "FREE THE PEOPLE" "PROTECT THE CONSTITUTION". I hope there are some good paragraphs about sedition... The policemen keeping order during the protest started receiving threatening letters when their identities were found out, so the authorities better deal with it. jonnypeh fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Apr 16, 2021 |
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Apr 16, 2021 20:24
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madeintaipei posted:Does anyone in Russia besides their families, who lost their beloved, care about the slow but steady attrition of Wagner mercenaries? Not an expert, but there's a very vague idea of what they're doing in Libya, Syria and Central Africa based on some OSINT of foreign and Russian independent outlets. Their numbers are low, losses unknown and no one cares since they're not conscripts anyone would have sympathy for or even part of the professional army. In 2018 some prominent journalists tried to find out what they're doing in the CAR and got murdered: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45030087
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Apr 16, 2021 21:40
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Yeah, I think the last time Wagner were big on social media was with the footage of them torturing and then mutilating the body of a prisoner. There's a popular journalist who used to write how they're "are troops" and should be recognized, but that episode seemed to shut him up, at least.
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Apr 16, 2021 22:30
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Holy poo poo Castro resigned.quote:Raúl Castro says he is resigning as Cuban Communist Party leader, ending his family's six decades in power.
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Apr 17, 2021 01:01
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I don't know if this is the right place for cuba chat, but does anyone have a good idea of what the power politics in the cuban government is actually like? From the outside at least, it seems kind of unified, or at least not quite like the kleptocrazy that Russia has become.
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Apr 17, 2021 10:13
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Slashrat posted:I don't know if this is the right place for cuba chat, tit for tat quote:Russia says it is banning eight top current and former US government officials from entering the country in response to US sanctions.
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Apr 17, 2021 14:31
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Budzilla posted:Unless Cuba is part of east Europe it is probably the wrong place. I know there is leeway with central Asian states but Cuba is in another 'hemisphere'. Same reasons US sanctions the likes of "Motorola", I imagine.
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Apr 17, 2021 14:42
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Lol I'm sure Bolton is very upset about his vacation plans in Simferopol.
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Apr 17, 2021 15:39
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Russian's aren't in donbass. donbass is a trashbox region dotted with feudal soviets and religious nuts with barely a functioning police force let alone occupation force. Its a shitshow and a sham that solely is propped up by Russia and by propped i mean arms and russian profiteers crossing the border to trade poo poo. That sure is a shitload of Russian military stuff heading to Ukraine. I'm sure the video of the soldier busting hand tools is indicative this is all being done to give them something to do while they're languishing at the border.
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Apr 17, 2021 16:24
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My biggest fear is that the fall of the federation will bring forth an ultra-nationalist movement to stop quote Russia's enemies unquote once and for all
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Apr 17, 2021 17:08
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:My biggest fear is that the fall of the federation will bring forth an ultra-nationalist movement to stop quote Russia's enemies unquote once and for all Grouchio fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Apr 17, 2021 |
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Apr 17, 2021 17:12
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 Czech goons, can you comment or tell us more? Because it's loving terrifying
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Apr 17, 2021 23:00
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Yeah seems pretty wild. I haven't seen any concrete evidence but some articles suggested that they wanted to sabotage a weapon shipment to Ukraine, but hosed up and it exploded on the spot. The facility got blown to bits so I'm not sure how much info they could gather. Apparently they're still investigating something.
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Apr 17, 2021 23:18
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They were following Emilian Gebrev, the Bulgarian arms dealer who was also a target of a Unit 29155 assassination attempt. It looks like he had an arms deal with Ukraine, and the shipment was blown up, then the team tried to assassination him in Bulgaria twice using a nerve agent, likely Novichok. The motivation for the Gebrev assassination was always a bit unclear, but this clears that up. We'll publish more about it on Bellingcat early next week. Christo's whole thread explains more: https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1383484889719181321 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1383486213017923592 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1383489500425297931 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1383492391169007620
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Apr 17, 2021 23:26
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That’s an act of war right there
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Apr 18, 2021 00:37
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Mokotow posted:That’s an act of war right there The border vacationers on the Russian border are 4x larger than the 26,000 army personell in the entire czech army
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Apr 18, 2021 01:18
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These guys are literally doing James Bond poo poo. State authorised assassination with exotic poison, blowing up weapon caches, traveling around under multiple identities in countries only for a few days. Can't wait to find out a mass shooting in the US was them getting into a firefight with a VIP detail.
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Apr 18, 2021 03:01
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Zelensky's meeting with Macron lasted longer than planned, they were joined by Merkel Russia's decision to block the Kerch Strait does not pose a threat to our military ships, it is more about economics - Commander of the Joint Forces Operation Nayev Problems Folks, Strangulating Mariupol is russias objective in blocking the kerch. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 07:07 on Apr 18, 2021 |
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Apr 18, 2021 07:01
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One of the podcasts with goon participation has made an episode about the Smolensk crash. Didn't watch this one yet, though I've seen a couple of episodes and in addition to being quite thorough in the engineering analysis, they are also pretty funny. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lk9IaWDk6g
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Apr 18, 2021 08:01
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I don't really follow that podcast regularly, but just watched it while doing the dishes. It's more or less what I've picked up about the case over the years, but it's definitely pretty entertaining and worth checking out if if you're not familiar with what happened. The actual crash part isn't very detailed, so it would be interesting to see someone aviation-centric like the mentour guy do a deeper dive if there's anything left.
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Apr 18, 2021 14:01
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Just as long as they don’t play the black boxes*. * State TV published a documentary about the crash last week, including the crew’s last screams as they plowed into the ground, it’s the most morbid poo poo ever
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Apr 18, 2021 14:12
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They did that? loving necrophiles. I loathe this governement and people who gave them way so much. They desecrated everything in this tragedy for political gains and still are feeding into conspiracies just for the poo poo n giggles and "shut up lib" shock value
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Apr 18, 2021 14:22
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There are no black box recordings being played in the podcast.
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Apr 18, 2021 14:31
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Mokotow posted:Just as long as they don’t play the black boxes*.
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Apr 18, 2021 15:58
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Grouchio posted:And I have a surgeon's morbid curiosity; where can I hear this?  https://twitter.com/michalrachon/status/1380815455422713856?s=20
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Apr 18, 2021 16:21
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Anne Frank Funk posted:One of the podcasts with goon participation has made an episode about the Smolensk crash. Didn't watch this one yet, though I've seen a couple of episodes and in addition to being quite thorough in the engineering analysis, they are also pretty funny. Definitely take a watch on this. Their episode on the kursk is hilarious.
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Apr 18, 2021 16:52
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Man what was Navalny thinking when he went back to Russia. Seems like he's definitely dying now?
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Apr 18, 2021 17:10
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I mean, this had to be within his range of expected outcomes. Nemtsov, the last big Putin critic in Russia got killed right on the bridge to the Kremlin. At that time, Nemtsov was even saying that his mother was scared for him and Navalny. I wonder which critic Putin will
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Apr 18, 2021 17:19
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aphid_licker posted:Man what was Navalny thinking when he went back to Russia. Seems like he's definitely dying now? I think Russia is not a place where you can just assume power safely from exile. Only way he was gonna mount a credible political challenge to Putin was by forcing Putin to finally show his colours by risking his own neck, and, well, yeah. We'll see.
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Apr 18, 2021 17:21
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I wonder how long Russia can keep going on like this. The post 2014 economic crash was almost as bad as the 98' crash and now the economy is just stagnating while corruption grows and they fall back further and further and become increasingly isolated. They gotta hit rock bottom at some point. This poo poo can't go on forever.
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Apr 18, 2021 17:34
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twerking on the railroad posted:I wonder which critic Putin will Nemtsov and Navalny aren't just critics, they are/were legitimate political contenders with federal political weight, organization and electoral support, the Kremlin has a bunch of no-action critics that are comfortably integrated into the whole controlled opposition system With the OSINT investigations into the FSB death squads that killed even some minor regional activists, if Navalny is killed I think it's pretty much it for anyone challenging Putin or any hope of a peaceful transition of power from the oligarch class Unless the tankies were correct and a pure leftist will emerge who will have an innate immunity to neurotoxins as well as fake prison charges
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Apr 18, 2021 17:40
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GABA ghoul posted:I wonder how long Russia can keep going on like this. The post 2014 economic crash was almost as bad as the 98' crash and now the economy is just stagnating while corruption grows and they fall back further and further and become increasingly isolated. They gotta hit rock bottom at some point. This poo poo can't go on forever. We've seen from other rogue states like the DPRK and Venezuela that, yes, you can just go on forever after scuttling your economy and cutting yourself off from the global financial system.
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Apr 18, 2021 17:49
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GABA ghoul posted:I wonder how long Russia can keep going on like this. The post 2014 economic crash was almost as bad as the 98' crash and now the economy is just stagnating while corruption grows and they fall back further and further and become increasingly isolated. They gotta hit rock bottom at some point. This poo poo can't go on forever. The big question is what'll happen after Putin is gone (if only due to age). This isn't exactly a system interested in creating strong underlings. quote:blackbox chat I remember that back when this whole matter was fresh and everyone was waiting for the transcripts (as nobody had any idea what the gently caress what went on), PiS was already pre-conspiracy theorying about evil bad russians interfering RELEASE THE TRUTH and then they ended up stealth-censoring the expletives, because that just wasn't heroic enough I suppose. I also remember that when Jarosław Kaczyński was running for president in 2010 (as the post, uh, just vacated) he made this really perplexing concilliatory speech "to Russian brothers", which was a complete 180 on the anti-Russian stance out of nowhere. But people raised their eyebrows and just went along with it in the moment. Then sometime after the campaign had concluded he was asked what was the deal with that and he explained that he cannot really answee, since he was so pumped with psychotropic drugs he didn't really remember anything from that month. Which, perfectly understandable on a personal level, but also everyone somehow apparently just shrugged and went "yep, nothing weird about running for the highest office in such state". Like how the gently caress is a politician allowed to make such an admission and keep his career?
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