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Probably good that it didn't work out considering how the world responded to forced landin soon after
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Nov 18, 2021 19:58
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The coincidence of Belarus having elections and them getting noticed at the border was just too great. That's what I meant by 'unlucky'. Maybe it was something misleading I read a while ago but I had the impression that Russian and Belorussian security services knew all along of Ukraine's operation, but I was glad to hear that they didn't. It's just now that I learned the details.
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Nov 18, 2021 20:29
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https://twitter.com/samstreetwrites/status/1460760577039638528
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Nov 19, 2021 03:43
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The summary of eastern Europe
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Nov 19, 2021 03:53
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I can't tell what's going on in this video at all
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Nov 19, 2021 03:54
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Balkans.avi
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Nov 19, 2021 04:11
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Isn't Russia pretty cozy with Serbian nationalists these days?
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Nov 19, 2021 04:17
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Rinkles posted:Isn't Russia pretty cozy with Serbian nationalists these days? "These days" lol It predates World War I E: Russia vetoed the UN calling the Bosnian genocide "genocide" at one point sean10mm fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Nov 19, 2021 |
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Nov 19, 2021 17:07
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Yeah, pretty much the only period when this wasn't the case is the cold war when Tito didn't want Kremlin to interfere with Yugoslavia's matters.
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Nov 20, 2021 13:42
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Nenonen posted:Yeah, pretty much the only period when this wasn't the case is the cold war when Tito didn't want Kremlin to interfere with Yugoslavia's matters. "Stop sending these dudes, before I send one of my own."
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Nov 20, 2021 18:12
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The American news is back to being spooked about Russia invading Ukraine. Here's what we know: NATO flights to the region have doubled Russians are doing maneuvers The photos of the last time Russia masses at the border were prevalent and I don't see the same frequency of Russian soldiers posting selfies by TOS-1s
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Nov 20, 2021 19:46
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Would winter even be a good time to invade? Or is that no longer a problem nowadays?
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Nov 20, 2021 21:59
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I don't think it's in their MO to start poo poo when everyone is looking
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Nov 20, 2021 22:22
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If it's a bluff it's a expensive one, given the number of forces they seem to be moving.
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Nov 20, 2021 22:26
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aphid_licker posted:Would winter even be a good time to invade? Or is that no longer a problem nowadays? Winter is a good time to turn off the EU's natural gas supply, if they start mouthing off.
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Nov 20, 2021 22:30
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Hannibal Rex posted:Winter is a good time to turn off the EU's natural gas supply, if they start mouthing off. Ah that makes sense.
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Nov 20, 2021 22:42
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Conspiratiorist posted:If it's a bluff it's a expensive one, given the number of forces they seem to be moving. According to Lukashenko's propaganda, the fact that Poland moved 15 thousand soldiers to the border means they are about to start WWIII.
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Nov 20, 2021 22:57
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https://mobile.twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1461716198471655424 The spooky toys are out.
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Nov 20, 2021 23:35
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I highly doubt that this will end in an blatant invasion. It would have to follow a coup attempt. They would have to be invited guests helping oversee the PEACEFUL transition of power etc. Then following a 30% turnout referendum join the Russian Federation.
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Nov 21, 2021 00:38
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What was the name for "Вежливые люди" in english. The people in unmarked uniform that overtook Crimea back in 2014? Yeah, these will have to show up again all of a sudden.
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Nov 21, 2021 01:24
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Erulisse posted:What was the name for "Вежливые люди" in english. The people in unmarked uniform that overtook Crimea back in 2014?  remembers
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Nov 21, 2021 01:33
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Rinkles posted:
Why did they give him a Russian flag This is a pro western false flag showing the Crimean popular resistance forces were wearing Russian flags! Untrue!
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Nov 21, 2021 01:45
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I remember how a certain podcast that I used to listen to heard about "the possibility of armed confrontation with little green men" in some NATO related talk, and took it to unironically mean that Americans were now openly admitting to getting ready to fight a war against aliens or alien-human hybrids.
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Nov 21, 2021 01:49
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Lmao it really does sound like this^ ahah Little green nazi-human hybrids
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Nov 21, 2021 01:55
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Saw this on Twitter, apparently Ukraine's Military Intelligence is predicting January offensive? https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1462254401624711172?s=20 I know there's Russian buildup going on, I don't know how true the rumors an actual offensive are.
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Nov 21, 2021 04:58
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CommieGIR posted:Saw this on Twitter, apparently Ukraine's Military Intelligence is predicting January offensive? Oh look they'd go for Mariupol and odessa immediately loving lol at all the criticism that i received for stating these would be objectives years ago Of course this looks to be a fairly standard Russiaobjectives.jpg They assume they'd want to keep to the Russian speaker dominant areas east of the dniper. While nipping Mariupol to keep the whole thing fed. Aswell as taking Odessa to turn the Ukraine into a landlocked country ripe for a second war of conquest a decade later WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:23 on Nov 21, 2021 |
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Nov 21, 2021 06:19
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None of this is going to happen in January. This is my prediction.
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Nov 21, 2021 06:56
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Paladinus posted:None of this is going to happen in January. This is my prediction. Agreed. It's basically bullshit until a shot is fired.
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Nov 21, 2021 06:59
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Oh look they'd go for Mariupol and odessa immediately
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Nov 21, 2021 08:10
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If any of that happens, which I hope loving not, I'm eager to hear excuses of all the loving idiots who supported putler throughout all these years. On one hand chances are slim, because unlike 1939 the world has instant news and everyone's eyes basically peeled to Ru/Ukr border now. On the other hand, the gas needle in winter time is very very addictive for EU to actually do anything. At least we will get Kaluga Trial then, or something.
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Nov 21, 2021 10:05
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Reminds me of the story of how marshall Tymoshenko predicted bad outcomes planning to attack Finland and Stalin dismissed him and attacked anyway Just seems like a disaster from a strategic and common sense perspective, but if you read the verbalised psychosis of Putin or the Russian security/military apparatus in their articles they view Ukraine as an existential threat that needs to be subdued and they ran out of soft-power options to get a friendly crony elected and no one want to become DLNR I hope war will not materialize but I'm glad to spend the winter on the other side of the continent
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Nov 21, 2021 10:18
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Winters aren't like they used to be, unfortunately  according to an article from last year 2019 was the warmest year on record in Kyiv, with peak temperature in December at 15ºC! Globally we're at +1º compared to 1880 while in 1940's we were at like +0.1ºC.Frozen conditions would be better for operations than mud though, and modern armies are anyway better equipped to combat cold weather. I really don't see Putin invading, though. Unless he thinks it's his only way out of the trouble that he's started and I doubt it would make things better anyway. Maybe something limited at border to scare people?
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Nov 21, 2021 11:59
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If Russians commit to taking some land, even the strongest winter won't do anything about it, any deterrent is entirely in the realm of politics and if shots are actually fired, the results are a foregone conclusion. That being said, I don't believe Russia is going to do anything beyond "motherland stronk"" posturing in response to Polish border reinforcements. This slow buildup is against their doctrine anyway.
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Nov 21, 2021 12:07
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Russia doesn't want to invade. They want Biden to basically agree to make Ukraine neutral. Ukrainian neutrality is more important than having Ukraine in the SoI. This is all about the upcoming summit. That said, if the US doesn't concede I don't think Russia can afford to not act.
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Nov 21, 2021 13:03
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Kinda wonder what the calculus is for the Ukrainians, on the one hand if you don't yell about and prepare for the threat you might get less military aid and invite the invasion, on the other hand if you don't stick your head out you just might be able to continue your job under the new management, and importantly not die in the war against Russia you can't win. Like I wouldn't die to prevent Germany being conquered by Austria
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Nov 21, 2021 13:41
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aphid_licker posted:Kinda wonder what the calculus is for the Ukrainians, on the one hand if you don't yell about and prepare for the threat you might get less military aid and invite the invasion, on the other hand if you don't stick your head out you just might be able to continue your job under the new management, and importantly not die in the war against Russia you can't win. Like I wouldn't die to prevent Germany being conquered by Austria West needs to be honest to them and tell them to concede to neutrality. Leadership think help is coming. Euros haven't been willing to die for Ukraine since 1943.
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Nov 21, 2021 14:20
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Vasukhani posted:West needs to be honest to them and tell them to concede to neutrality.
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Nov 21, 2021 15:31
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Cugel the Clever posted:What does the West and Ukraine get out of this? The US gets to focus on the pacific. Ukraine gets no war. What did finland get out of neutrality?
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Nov 21, 2021 16:00
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Vasukhani posted:Ukraine gets no war. Vasukhani posted:What did finland get out of neutrality?
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Nov 21, 2021 16:17
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Cugel the Clever posted:This is telling. "Submit or I'll murder you" isn't acceptable on the playground; it shouldn't be acceptable in international affairs. The primary factor that keeps Ukraine from not being neutral is a hostile Russian invasion in its southeastern territories. Besides, it's a sovereign state and Russia doesn't get to make decisions for it. Maybe Putin should consider not doing everything in his power to convince his neighbors against "neutrality". Yes, it shouldn't be acceptable. But we live in a reality where sovereign states have not yet been abolished. This is not a question of right and wrong. And Ukraine has agency, just like Russia. If Ukraine decides to exercise its agency and seek a backdoor into NATO Russia will exercise its agency and crush Ukraine. Finland's neutrality was not that between 1945-1991. In fact, its FP was basically dictated by the soviets. Buffer states are never truly "neutral" but the balancing act can prevent war. Russia forced Ukraine into the West in 2014, it is trying to get it to return to 2010 without Crimea, basically. What we have now is the US encouraging Ukraine to become a NATO member, knowing full well that they will send several battalions of "strong condemnations" if Russia decides to sack Kyiv.
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Nov 21, 2021 18:45
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