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The bear case is more cars that Toyota sells now.
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Apr 23, 2023 18:12
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I only follow experts like Dr Patel for TSLA pricing analysis https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1341030141468786698
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Apr 23, 2023 18:12
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Subvisual Haze posted:I only follow experts like Dr Patel for TSLA pricing analysis Math checks out
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Apr 23, 2023 18:49
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loving how the bear case has 34% margin and the bull case is 27% margin
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Apr 23, 2023 19:08
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Apr 23, 2023 19:49
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shame on an IGA posted:loving how the bear case has 34% margin and the bull case is 27% margin I was trying to think through how the margin could get worse while spreading fixed costs over more units and maybe projected investment? But most likely they decoupled the variables and did some hacky statistics, so their model doesn’t have any actual relationship between the output variables. Why even learn basic financial statement rules when you can just do a big linear regression then throw the input into a “monte Carlo” and call it good?
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Apr 23, 2023 20:53
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So what stupid way should I vote my Teck shares for Wednesday? The stupid corporate breakup that only benefits massive shareholders and kills my vote power or the now undervalued Glencore offer that I assume is going to get another counter before Wednesday based on them wanting to spin off the coal division.
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Apr 23, 2023 23:20
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20 million cars a year would be about 1/3rd the entire global fleet of passenger vehicles sold in a year. so 1 in 3 cars you see driving would be a tesla. totally a realistic goal and very definitely something we have seen in the past few decades where a single manufacturer dominates world wide sales. also lmao. its so much easier to manufacture electric cars vs. conventional ICE cars. there is nothing protecting tesla from being chipped away at by a hundred other new small time manufacturers.
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Apr 24, 2023 00:40
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Yeah but how many come with self crashing technology? And free Twitter.
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Apr 24, 2023 00:45
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Buy a Tesla, get a free blue check mark! The synergy is wonderful!
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Apr 24, 2023 00:49
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Elephanthead posted:Yeah but how many come with self crashing technology? And free Twitter. Pssh, its like a couple patches away from being capable of $600B/yr in robotaxi revenue ARK's stupid valuation gives a ~100% chance Tesla will have an autonomous robotaxi fleet by 2027 and a double digit % chance of it happening by the end of this year. Yes, the year that ends 8 months from now
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Apr 24, 2023 00:54
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that article about tesla employees sharing vids of the inside peoples garages and horrific accidents also had an anecdote about how they also spent a lot of time trying to train the cars valet feature not to freak out over something as simple as a garden hose laying on the driveway. so i’m sure unattended robo taxi is just around the corner.
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Apr 24, 2023 01:06
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drk posted:Cathie and the ARK crew are back with their always insane TSLA forecasts: https://ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2027/ This reads like poo poo I see from Crypto where people just imagine numbers. Just as stupid and you can see where & why, too. On one hand, they expect margins on EV's to stay the same on the bull forecast in 5 years and increase by 10 percentage points (not 10% increase, we're talking 50% increase!) for the bear case, while total gross margin doubles and they have between 10 and 15 times the marketcap. E;FB. https://creditswap.gitbook.io/creditswap/economic-model/revenue-projection  I'm not sure what's worse in this case.
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Apr 24, 2023 04:07
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when elon said tesla would have full self driving by 2015, everyone said he was smart. but now when cathie says it she's dumb? seems unfair
Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 07:30 on Apr 24, 2023 |
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Apr 24, 2023 07:18
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was it ever made clear how and why hertz stockholders were able to get such a good deal out of the bankruptcy sale? i remember the lead up, and the shock when naive retail investors weren't completely hosed, but i can't find any good explanations for what happened
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Apr 25, 2023 00:39
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:was it ever made clear how and why hertz stockholders were able to get such a good deal out of the bankruptcy sale? i remember the lead up, and the shock when naive retail investors weren't completely hosed, but i can't find any good explanations for what happened Hertz had a ton of used cars and went bankrupt right as the pandemic started, which caused the price of used cars to double/triple. Usually your main asset doesn't triple in price in less than a year.
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Apr 25, 2023 00:43
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ranbo das posted:Hertz had a ton of used cars and went bankrupt right as the pandemic started, which caused the price of used cars to double/triple. Uh didn't you see the "bull and bear projections" a few posts up? Your assets should at least triple, that's the bull projection.
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Apr 25, 2023 00:51
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ranbo das posted:Hertz had a ton of used cars and went bankrupt right as the pandemic started, which caused the price of used cars to double/triple. Yep. Sad thing is it now has a lot of people convinced that common shareholders can do really well in a bankruptcy. Which can happen (even leaving HTZ aside, buying shares of the bankrupt REIT GGP was one of Bill Ackman's famous trades in the GFC) but it's very very rare.
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Apr 25, 2023 18:16
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ranbo das posted:Hertz had a ton of used cars and went bankrupt right as the pandemic started, which caused the price of used cars to double/triple. I don't think used car prices went crazy until a year or so into the pandemic when new car supply chain issues from became apparent.
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Apr 25, 2023 20:21
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laxbro posted:I don't think used car prices went crazy until a year or so into the pandemic when new car supply chain issues from became apparent. Which is exactly when they emerged from bankruptcy. That's the whole point, at the start of the pandemic things looked grim, they filed for bankruptcy. A year later car prices went wonky and they were able to emerge. You don't just Michael Scott declare bankruptcy and the company shuts down, it typically takes at least a year or two to actually happen. You can also file with intent to keep operating after (Hertz) or with intent to liquidate (BBBY). It's a long, complicated process which I could effort post about if people were interested.
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Apr 26, 2023 13:56
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ranbo das posted:Which is exactly when they emerged from bankruptcy. That's the whole point, at the start of the pandemic things looked grim, they filed for bankruptcy. A year later car prices went wonky and they were able to emerge. Not just used car prices, but demand for rental cars (and rental car rates) went absolutely bonkers between summer 2020 through 2021. People were too afraid to fly anywhere but pretty much the entire Northeast had the idea of "Driving to Maine" for vacation and many places around NYC were quoting $100-$120 a day for a basic shitbox car that wasn't even vacuumed after the last renter.
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Apr 26, 2023 14:08
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ranbo das posted:You don't just Michael Scott declare bankruptcy and the company shuts down, it typically takes at least a year or two to actually happen. You can also file with intent to keep operating after (Hertz) or with intent to liquidate (BBBY). It's a long, complicated process which I could effort post about if people were interested. How long did you have that Michael Scott reference holstered?
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Apr 26, 2023 14:49
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In april 2020 there was also a mysterious fire that somehow got started in a giant lot in florida that burned up a few thousand rental cars. Not sure which company or companies got that insurance payout.
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Apr 26, 2023 19:56
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mrmcd posted:Not just used car prices, but demand for rental cars (and rental car rates) went absolutely bonkers between summer 2020 through 2021. People were too afraid to fly anywhere but pretty much the entire Northeast had the idea of "Driving to Maine" for vacation and many places around NYC were quoting $100-$120 a day for a basic shitbox car that wasn't even vacuumed after the last renter. It was $600/day in Miami, May 2020 Your options at that price point were Ford Taurus: $600/day Lamborghini Hurricane, neon lime green: $600 I know this because we debated the Lambo but realized it doesn't have a backseat for a car seat so we opted to just uber everywhere instead
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Apr 26, 2023 20:14
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First Republic seems so hosed...
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Apr 26, 2023 20:46
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Obligatory: https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634197816359747585?s=20
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Apr 26, 2023 20:58
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lol every time
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Apr 26, 2023 20:59
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:First Republic seems so hosed... Half of Stocktwits seems to be "BULLISH"! I've just come to assume posters there are looking for bag holders.
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Apr 26, 2023 21:08
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Has anyone run a Jim Cramer study where they just do the opposite of whatever he says?
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Apr 26, 2023 21:10
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Sundae posted:Has anyone run a Jim Cramer study where they just do the opposite of whatever he says? There is an ETF that does just that
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Apr 26, 2023 21:11
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He is very slightly positive overall, which is basically the most useless thing possible. If he was always right or always wrong, those are obviously useful, but he's right just ever so slightly which means both inversing him and following him underperformed the market.
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Apr 26, 2023 21:15
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:First Republic seems so hosed... But I thought the banks had been fixed?
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Apr 26, 2023 21:23
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never fails. 
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Apr 26, 2023 21:58
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DoubleT2172 posted:There is an ETF that does just that yep, SJIM. I'll hold a share forever just for laughs. notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Apr 27, 2023 |
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Apr 27, 2023 13:54
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I'd be stupid not to buy more SCHW, right?
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Apr 27, 2023 16:29
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Sweating these amazon earnings, got this bad feeling in my stomach that msft and goog maybe starting to eat into aws.
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Apr 27, 2023 17:12
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BAPED - Buy AMZN puts every day
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Apr 27, 2023 17:16
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Baddog posted:Sweating these amazon earnings, got this bad feeling in my stomach that msft and goog maybe starting to eat into aws. MSFT and GOOG mostly compete against AWS in the middleware and (azure in particular) apps cloud spaces, whereas AWS still dominates in the cloud storage/infra segment. (Note that ORCL is in this picture too, as well as a few smaller players.) I doubt AWS is losing much market share but it could be seeing a lot of price pressure.
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Apr 27, 2023 17:51
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Amazon had a 45% earnings beat and basically followed meta today.
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Apr 27, 2023 22:40
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Wtf $TOP
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Apr 28, 2023 00:03
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