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Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

If A.J. Brown and George Kittle can't muster 10 points between them I will quit fantasy and walk into the sea

This is going to happen at this rate too :negative:

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FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Looks like Mostert wont be getting many points tonight lol

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



https://x.com/mikegarafolo/status/1716264392617030087?s=46&t=OK6AvWM-NBtlIQDYnQH66w

Welp

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





ESPN quit loving with me I do not have a 35% chance of winning beer league this week down 20 with just Goedert and injured McCaffrey left to go.

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Quiet Feet posted:

ESPN quit loving with me I do not have a 35% chance of winning beer league this week down 20 with just Goedert and injured McCaffrey left to go.

The percentages are the hugest troll ever and very obviously just based on "how close is each remaining player to their initial projection". Last week when I needed one FG from Aubrey to take the lead, my opponent showed 99% to win for a good while. Aubrey made the FG and I won with my "1% chance", get owned :smuggo:

I've also lost many a week where I was > 90% to win going into the final game. Because it turns out it's loving impossible to consistently and reliably project fantasy points

But also depending on your scoring system Goedert may have gotten you 95% of the way there

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



One big thing I’ve noticed is that the projections seem to be based largely on the players performance against that team in the past without regard to things like OL, overall team performance, team health, opponent health, etc.

I won’t claim to know how the sausage is made, but I will claim that they probably need to take more than player variables and statistics into account (or make it account for a larger share)

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Case in point: waddle consistently has better projections than Flowers, even though Flowers has had 7 weeks of games to show that he 1) regularly overperforms projections 2) regularly has more targets than waddle 3) regularly scores more than waddle

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

FAT32 SHAMER posted:

Case in point: waddle consistently has better projections than Flowers, even though Flowers has had 7 weeks of games to show that he 1) regularly overperforms projections 2) regularly has more targets than waddle 3) regularly scores more than waddle

Yeah point projections are poo poo and you should give them about as much weight as your draft grade

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

If Mattison outscores Addison, I win!

5 seconds into MNF: hmm well nevertheless

Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

Well poo poo. Thankfully it doesn't matter for this week's matchup but getting cute and benching Addison in case CMC didn't play really bit me in the rear end.

Fentry
Mar 7, 2003



I needed 4 points from Jake Moody tonight to win and was terrified I wasn't going to get it, I think watching when a kicker is your last player is the least enjoyable way to watch the final game

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Yeah I think I’m dropping Moody for Myers lol

He’s only good for PATs

Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

Dango Bango posted:

Well poo poo. Thankfully it doesn't matter for this week's matchup but getting cute and benching Addison in case CMC didn't play really bit me in the rear end.

I take this back - had I started Addison I'd be within striking distance with CMC and Kirk still playing :argh:

Abugadu
Jul 12, 2004

1st Sgt. Matthews and the men have Procured for me a cummerbund from a traveling gypsy, who screeched Victory shall come at a Terrible price. i am Honored.

Fentry posted:

I needed 4 points from Jake Moody tonight to win and was terrified I wasn't going to get it, I think watching when a kicker is your last player is the least enjoyable way to watch the final game

I had Osborn +70 pts or so against his McCaffrey, Kittle, Hockenson, and Cousins.

I won by one point, and my blood pressure is destroying my body

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Would be cool if any of these end zone opportunities for Kincaid worked out

coronaball
Feb 6, 2005

You're finished, pork-o-nazi!
HOLY poo poo RACHAAD WHITE HAD A RUN FOR MORE THAN 4 YAR-

oh
Holding

Chernabog
Apr 16, 2007



Had to start Godwin cause I had no choice, glad he's finally having a good game.

coronaball
Feb 6, 2005

You're finished, pork-o-nazi!
:siren: It took until Week 8, but the Mike Evans 1.2 point piece of poo poo game has finally arrived.

Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

coronaball posted:

:siren: It took until Week 8, but the Mike Evans 1.2 point piece of poo poo game has finally arrived.

Congrats, week salvaged.

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



Little worried the Titans aren't gonna give Henry a full workload so he doesn't get hurt before trading him but what are you gonna do :shrug:

(I know they told him they aren't but they can't just say "we're waiting for a day 1 draft pick" out loud)

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





Pats just suddenly not playing like poo poo is gonna make fantasy weird.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
Maybe time to think K. Bourne is a legit flex play/WR3?

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



I am very tired of Chris Olave not scoring positive points, Carr sucks so much rear end

E: TD to Kamara cool cool

take me you ANIMAL
Nov 28, 2002

Congrats big boy
Glad the Dallas D is on my bench.

Anyone have the Falcons game on? How is Bijan looking? I see he's only got two carries so far through the first, is he at least getting snaps?

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

My bench of guys I'd never start is going off

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Lamb is feasting :swoon:

Fentry
Mar 7, 2003



After playing 6 different TEs this year I finally have my first TD and score over 5 points from a TE, god bless you Taysom Hill even if you aren't really a TE

take me you ANIMAL
Nov 28, 2002

Congrats big boy

WampaLord posted:

Lamb is feasting :swoon:

I was worried because my opponent has him. But he's starting Aiyuk over him.

Still half a game to play, but Tony P and Bijan might still sink me if they can't find the end zone or start catching passes.

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





Feels like everyone I'm playing against is starting random borderline waiver wire guys that are all getting TDs. And my teams starters are getting TDs vultured by random nobodies.

Good week for 4th string wrs and backup TEs I guess!

E: it is incredible how predictable it is that whenever I'm projected as like a 60% favorite to win, my teams always poo poo the bed. It never fails.

Quiet Feet fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Oct 29, 2023

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



Lol Cowboys are up like 30 and Pollard has 17 yards 🙃

Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

Bellmaker posted:

Lol Cowboys are up like 30 and Pollard has 17 yards 🙃

He was such a stud the first couple of games too :(

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
I feel like I outsmarted myself benching Hopkins.

Varg
Jan 13, 2007

A friendly face.

Pain of Mind posted:

I feel like I outsmarted myself benching Hopkins.
He's always been on my bench behind Tyreek, Pittman, Kirk & Meyers.. now I'm gonna be swayed to start him and he'll go back to doing nothing

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





Yeah its definitely in stop checking scores time now. Man, gently caress me.

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



Dammit that Swift fake Tush Push hurts

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Varg posted:

He's always been on my bench behind Tyreek, Pittman, Kirk & Meyers.. now I'm gonna be swayed to start him and he'll go back to doing nothing

Yeah I guess if he has a second good week I could change my mind but it's gonna take more than one random rear end blowup game to convince me Will Levis can play in the NFL. Bagent looked competent in his first game and then uh yeah. Eaten alive by the Chargers D lol

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





lovely low scoring slog is really not what I need here. :(

Cat Hassler
Feb 7, 2006

Slippery Tilde
Yeah I need LaPorta and Sun God to get me 15 points and this ain’t off to a good start

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





It is absolutely incredible how useless the Raiders have rendered Davante. Josh McDaniels should be thrown into a volcano.

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FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



I sat Jacobs expecting the Lions to eat him alive

Gfdi

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