|
Duey posted:So this might be a stupid question, but what effect does options expiration have on the market? Does it usually push prices higher? lower? no effect? http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2010/03/19/quadruple-witching-stock-market/ edit: Got back into CRXX @1.34 again today, ASCO presentations sometime between April 17th-21st and a fair amount of buyout/partnership rumors with Novartis floating around. Not a bad place to be. destructo fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Apr 15, 2010 |
#
?
Apr 15, 2010 22:04
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 21:51 |
|
|
Since I bought them on March 1, RIG is up 10% and FSLR is up 30%. However, my position in RIG is twice as large as in FSLR and the S&P is up 9.7% in that period. Hooray for a beta of 1? 
Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Apr 15, 2010 |
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2010 22:23
|
|
|
Thanks for the article destructo, that helped out. Now I also get to use a funny word every month.
|
|
#
?
Apr 15, 2010 22:24
|
|
|
There is a hypothesis that options writers, generally deep-pocketed financial institutions, have the clout to push prices closest to the point where the options holders will collectively make the smallest possible amount of money. I don't know that I subscribe to it, but some people like conspiracy theories.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 01:03
|
|
|
Duey posted:So this might be a stupid question, but what effect does options expiration have on the market? Does it usually push prices higher? lower? no effect? High volume swings during the day that usually push it up and down, but then the stocks usually settle at an even handle so that everyones options get hosed over. Its hilariously predictable. Go into a stock chat channel and you'll see people rage. Triple witching days are the best. The last one I hit RIMM literally settled at exactly $40 a share after swinging from open at $42 to $45 down to $36 and hit $40 at close. They beat earnings before opening too.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 05:27
|
|
|
GE is like the Debbie Downer of the stock market Every time they do anything you expect to hear *waugh* *waughhh* in the background.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 16:34
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:High volume swings during the day that usually push it up and down, but then the stocks usually settle at an even handle so that everyones options get hosed over. Its hilariously predictable. Go into a stock chat channel and you'll see people rage. Triple witching days are the best. The last one I hit RIMM literally settled at exactly $40 a share after swinging from open at $42 to $45 down to $36 and hit $40 at close. They beat earnings before opening too. I'm not huge on conspiracy theories either but there are some big players who descend from their thrones of money to push stocks to protect their options positions on OEX days. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes not. Action like this is not uncommon. In other news, Goldman Sachs, lol.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 16:34
|
|
|
Apparently I should have jumped out of C when it hit 5.00$. Just have to hope Monday's earnings push it up and that it doesn't totally cave today. VVV Because the market is filled with Chicken Little types. Duey fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Apr 16, 2010 |
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 17:42
|
|
|
SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of fraud So there is a crack in Goldman's armor, but I don't see why that should take the entire market with it.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 17:44
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of fraud Especially since it is entirely political showmanship...
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 17:51
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of fraud The report said that investors lost about $1 billion. So in order to make the investors 100% whole, Goldman would have to take a 1 time charge of $1 billion, plus probably a couple million in penalties or the like. And for this, they immediately lose about $13 billion in market cap. Nobody said the market was rational in the short term.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 19:08
|
|
|
Man, gently caress Goldman. Long 20,000 C shares right before the news hit...
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 20:02
|
|
|
Wow, I just sold GS on Wed at around 180. I feel like I have wings... Yeah, on that note, what's the outlook for C? Is this major damage to all banks?
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 20:23
|
|
|
Someone bought a ton of GS puts yesterday and this morning. Maybe it was GS itself
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 20:44
|
|
|
Don Wrigley posted:The report said that investors lost about $1 billion. So in order to make the investors 100% whole, Goldman would have to take a 1 time charge of $1 billion, plus probably a couple million in penalties or the like. Generally speaking, when a company is accused of fraud just paying the investors what they lost due to the fraud is not the whole picture... What about the business lost due to the stigma of being an investment bank that is accused of fraud? What about all the uncertainty that has just been introduced to Goldman's business model and the now increased likelihood of increased regulation?
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 21:00
|
|
|
Don Wrigley posted:The report said that investors lost about $1 billion. So in order to make the investors 100% whole, Goldman would have to take a 1 time charge of $1 billion, plus probably a couple million in penalties or the like. Legal fees, future business, possibility of further repercussions... for the market, possibility of repercussions for other companies. Really it's mostly because they needed an excuse for the market to come down since NASDAQ hit 2500 and SnP hit 1200, and DOW hit 11,000... too many round numbers for the market to not have plunged today. Plus look at a chart of NASDAQ and look at what generally happens when it gets to 2500-2550.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 21:17
|
|
|
potidaean posted:Wow, I just sold GS on Wed at around 180. I feel like I have wings... Financials in general are heavy over bought in the short term. Dave's Daily at http://www.etfdigest.com/davedaily/#1 does a good post market summary of the markers. See the first three graphs especially. Especially now that the quarters numbers are coming out since they're good but not good enough to warrant current prices. If you got into C below 4 dollars and you don't mind going long (short term taxes kill anyways), then just hang in there over the next 2 years. It'll be bumpy but you'll make bank. Same goes for the other big finanicals. Ive been anticipating some sort of general market pull back so I'm hoping to see at least a 5% pull back over the next week or so. I'm in the process of going 2-3 years long but the recent bull market has been a pain in my rear end and forced me to slowly start buying in at short term lovely prices. Whats peoples thoughts on Utilities and REITs? I think if we have a pull back in those areas over the summer it would be the best chance to get in long on them. Both sectors are going to have huge upswings once the economy is more or less on track. The new administration's plan to let dividend taxes go back up though will suck donkey balls though.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 21:33
|
|
|
Posting my portfolio of funds and some background on myself. Please feel free to offer advice or ask questions. General Electric Company GE Bank of America BAC JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM Citigroup Inc. C Chevron Corporation CVX Vanguard Financials ETF VFH SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY Vanguard Industrials ETF VIS Vanguard Materials ETF VAW Vanguard Energy ETF VDE Vanguard Dividend... VIG Vanguard Utilities ETF VPU Vanguard REIT ETF VNQ Vanguard FTSE All-World... VEU Vanguard High Dividend... VYM Vanguard Small-Cap ETF VB Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF VO Vanguard Emerging... VWO SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) GLD ISHARES INC MSCI... ESR iShares S&P Global Mat... MXI PowerShares Water... PHO Some commentary.... The individual companies are ones that I have great faith in to be long term safe with good performance potential. I like Vanguard's funds since they charge next to nothing for upkeep and I have not seen any other funds where their performance justifies how much they charge you. If theres one thing more important than gaining metric gently caress tons of money in gains its not losing it to fees and losses. Background on myself I started investing for real last year and was made poo poo loads (over 100% post taxes) doing short term plays. For reference I manage a 6 figure account. I post this only to show I'm not taking 500 bucks and buying penny stocks and claiming 1000% gain. My largest recent mistake was thinking the pull in January was the start of a double dip and pulling all my funds out that I had invested in the Sept-Dec time frame. So while I didnt lose money I screwed up a pretty decent chance to make 30-50% gain by Fall 2011. I plan on going fully in for a 2-3 year period over the next few months as buying opportunities present themselves. I'm currently 30% in the market now.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 21:56
|
|
|
blazin961 posted:Background on myself I started investing for real last year and was made poo poo loads (over 100% post taxes) doing short term plays. For reference I manage a 6 figure account. I post this only to show I'm not taking 500 bucks and buying penny stocks and claiming 1000% gain.
|
|
#
?
Apr 16, 2010 22:22
|
|
|
destructo posted:Not to poo poo on your party, but you could have put your money into anything back in Feb-March of 2009 and done that.
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 00:07
|
|
|
Indeed. I hate to brag, but from the very bottom of March of 2009, I'm up nearly 600%. (Just don't ask about what happened before March of 2009, which is why I hate to brag. But in my defense, I didn't know so well what I was doing back then). I was just thinking recently that I miss that kind of volatility. It's been a couple of boring weeks. And then today happened.
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 00:23
|
|
|
Zarrr posted:Lots of people did considerably better, in fact.  I had my money sitting in cash through the whole 07-09 shitfest and wasn't smart enough to start investing it till late 09, sniff.
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 01:02
|
|
|
destructo posted:Not to poo poo on your party, but you could have put your money into anything back in Feb-March of 2009 and done that. Yea but the fact is that most people thought the economic apocalypse was still happening and thought the market could go south even further during that time. I look back now and want to smack myself when I see the deals but hindsight is 20/20. At the time I was focused on taking gains, preventing loss and staying liquid so I definitely missed out on great deals looking back. destructo, Zarrr, and Hobologist - Since all of you seem to have done significantly better, would you care to share what you were you and what are you invested in? And did you take large hits in your portfolio's in the fall?
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 01:10
|
|
|
blazin961 posted:Yea but the fact is that most people thought the economic apocalypse was still happening and thought the market could go south even further during that time. I look back now and want to smack myself when I see the deals but hindsight is 20/20. At the time I was focused on taking gains, preventing loss and staying liquid so I definitely missed out on great deals looking back. Well, Windstream and Qwest have been my core holdings, although I think Windstream may be coming close to running its course. I also held a lot of Asta Funding for reasons I basically attribute to Stockholm syndrome. I added Linn Energy and Breitburn last September, and those have worked out pretty well. I like American Lorain, and I've bought and sold and bought again Capstead Mortgage, and the action in that has been somewhat confusing (I think it's below book value, and that makes no sense since their portfolio consists of MBSs guaranteed by the federal government). But really, I don't do a lot of trading anyway. I don't recall taking a big hit in the fall, but Etrade informs me that I was down 12% in October, and I guess if you haven't been inoculated to volatility by late 2007-2008 that could be interpreted as a big hit.
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 02:42
|
|
|
blazin961 posted:destructo, Zarrr, and Hobologist - Since all of you seem to have done significantly better, would you care to share what you were you and what are you invested in? And did you take large hits in your portfolio's in the fall? I personally know several people who made 120 - 130% by buying nothing but split shares of Canadian banks. Unfortunately, I am not one of them. Zarrr fucked around with this message at 04:44 on Apr 17, 2010 |
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 04:40
|
|
|
Quick question: I'm looking into some small-time investing to get my feet wet. I've found that there's no better way for me to learn the ins and outs of something like this than writing a program, so I was wondering if there's any companies out there that offer some sort of API-level access to historical data and/or database dumps of it. Am I hoping in vain?
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 06:43
|
|
|
Coasterphreak posted:Quick question: I'm looking into some small-time investing to get my feet wet. I've found that there's no better way for me to learn the ins and outs of something like this than writing a program, so I was wondering if there's any companies out there that offer some sort of API-level access to historical data and/or database dumps of it. Am I hoping in vain? Scrape it off yahoo finance, you can get all their historical data in csv format. I might buy some datasets from https://www.eoddata.com or reuters at some point in the future. You get what you pay for and yahoo is free, it's fine for playing with but I wouldn't base any serious testing off it
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 06:55
|
|
|
unixbeard posted:Scrape it off yahoo finance, you can get all their historical data in csv format. I might buy some datasets from https://www.eoddata.com or reuters at some point in the future. You get what you pay for and yahoo is free, it's fine for playing with but I wouldn't base any serious testing off it That's exactly what I was looking for, thanks. The prices from eoddata aren't nearly as steep as I expected, actually.
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 07:12
|
|
|
Coasterphreak posted:That's exactly what I was looking for, thanks. The prices from eoddata aren't nearly as steep as I expected, actually. no they really are quite reasonable. I'm just not sure about their quality. I need to talk to them to find out where they source it from and how they qa it
|
|
#
?
Apr 17, 2010 07:37
|
|
|
Does Goldman Sachs look tempting to anyone after it stops going down from the recent hub bub. I mean sure they'll get fined or something but I seriously doubt anything will take them down.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 14:17
|
|
|
It looks attractive to me, but I don't know much of anything about individual stocks. So, uh..take that as you will.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 15:20
|
|
|
AAPL and GS earnings tomorrow. Yee haw. Bang bang.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 15:55
|
|
|
Coasterphreak posted:Quick question: I'm looking into some small-time investing to get my feet wet. I've found that there's no better way for me to learn the ins and outs of something like this than writing a program, so I was wondering if there's any companies out there that offer some sort of API-level access to historical data and/or database dumps of it. Am I hoping in vain? I'd recommend taking a look at this as well: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/smf_addin/
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 16:26
|
|
|
I bought 950 shares of C before todays jump. Thats most of my portfolio (1 of 2 open positions) and I have no buying power left. I've run into extreme sellers remorse this past quarter and now I'm afraid to sell. At the same time I know securing profits is always a good thing and I need the cash to get in on other stocks. Bottom line: I'm still a newb and I would appreciate the thread's advice on recommended strategy here (should I leave only the profits on the table sooner rather than later?) and general help on when to sell/the correct mindset to have/etc. Thanks Of course this is assuming I actually have a profit at the end of the day...
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 16:36
|
|
|
A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. I bought C at 4.08, sold out at 4.60. Its been too volatile for me to want to stay in at this point. :/ If you're in it for the long term, I'd just forget about it. I really like C in the long term. That said, I've only been trading since Feb.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 16:56
|
|
|
What do you guys think is going on with RDCM? I've owned it for years and it's just been dragging me down until last week when it suddenly shot up and I finally got out today for a nice profit. There's no news and ridiculously above average volume.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 17:01
|
|
|
fougera posted:I bought 950 shares of C before todays jump. Thats most of my portfolio (1 of 2 open positions) and I have no buying power left. I've run into extreme sellers remorse this past quarter and now I'm afraid to sell. At the same time I know securing profits is always a good thing and I need the cash to get in on other stocks. Bottom line: I'm still a newb and I would appreciate the thread's advice on recommended strategy here (should I leave only the profits on the table sooner rather than later?) and general help on when to sell/the correct mindset to have/etc. When you think about it, you bought that C right from the government! You just got pumped and dumped by the government! What a bunch of pricks.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 17:20
|
|
|
Sylink posted:Does Goldman Sachs look tempting to anyone after it stops going down from the recent hub bub. I don't think this will hurt them that much unless the SEC revokes their license to print money through investment banking. I mean, they're still a bulge bracket investment bank in like m&a and corporate finance and other non-trading activities. Not everything in investment banks revolve around prop desks and hedge funds. And even if there is a reputation decline, people will still want to do business with GS for financepenis++, as proven in Liar's Poker. fougera posted:I bought 950 shares of C before todays jump. Thats most of my portfolio (1 of 2 open positions) and I have no buying power left. I've run into extreme sellers remorse this past quarter and now I'm afraid to sell. At the same time I know securing profits is always a good thing and I need the cash to get in on other stocks. Bottom line: I'm still a newb and I would appreciate the thread's advice on recommended strategy here (should I leave only the profits on the table sooner rather than later?) and general help on when to sell/the correct mindset to have/etc. If you can't sleep at night or continually update your blackberry from 9-4 trying to get live quotes off CNBC mobile, you should probably lighten your position. To me at least, C is a total daytrading as well as swingtrading product, as opposed to an actual equity that you could/should invest in. It's something you can totally jump back into if you start getting hard thinking about volatility, so personally I would hit it and quit it on any move over 5%. Using my amateur google finance based TA bc i'm too lazy to use fibonnaci, it appears that resistance is heavy anywhere past 5, so you could also hold til 4.90 or so. Buy it back at 5 if you think it's gonna set a new 52wk high. Or better yet start gambling with some options by straight up buying some calls or selling calls on your position, but that's my degenerate side speaking.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 18:33
|
|
|
I can understand how Goldman Sachs gives stocks an excuse to correct, but the journalists are saying it is also dropping the price of oil and gold. I suppose they are named Goldman, which explains the gold thing, but I really don't see any stronger connection.
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 18:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 21:51 |
|
|
PsychoAndy posted:I don't think this will hurt them that much unless the SEC revokes their license to print money through investment banking. I mean, they're still a bulge bracket investment bank in like m&a and corporate finance and other non-trading activities. Not everything in investment banks revolve around prop desks and hedge funds. And even if there is a reputation decline, people will still want to do business with GS for financepenis++, as proven in Liar's Poker. Actually, 2/3 of Goldman's profit comes from trading, though nobody knows the split between prop trading and client trading (I'd guess it's more of the former). That being said, the market reaction is a total overreaction, as usual, and this incident won't have nearly enough impact to warrant the hit the stock has taken. I read an article that they're going to have to take a maximum $700 million charge, which they'll be able to spread over several years, while the company's market cap has fallen tens of billions of dollars. You may want to argue reputation, but does anybody really think that anybody will remember this a year from now?
|
|
#
?
Apr 19, 2010 19:15
|
|