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Now, going back to the old question of "can substate actors other then the Regime be capable of manufactoring Sarin". I found a pretty nice paper about that: http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf Key findings: Aum started production of chemical weapons in spring 1993 Total cost: around 30 Million for the entire chemical weapons Programm Total number of involved People: about 10 initially, increased later Somewhat more then 100 tons of chemicals were procured Results: Tabun, Soman, Mustard Gas, Phosgen and Hydrogen Cyanide were produced but not in sizeable quantities (Mustard gas total was about a Pound, Sodium Cyanide at about 8.5 kg that are accounted for) VX was produced in appreciable quantities Sarin was produced at considerable quantities With the following production timeline: The first Sarin was produced in Fall 1993 (less then half a year after making the decision to go for chemical, instead of biological, weapons), production started cotboer 1993 with an initial 20 gramm, then 1 kg in November, 5 kg in december and then 20 kg in february to march 1994, which was when the Engineering plant Brown moses refered to came online. The initial Batches were done with a pre fab lab. While These laboraties had some really good Equipment in them, they also had buckets in order to catch leakage from the roofs. Early 1994, the staff working with Sarin was at 18, and Aum ordered it to increase to over 100. I do not think that one can exclude a Scenario in which an Opposition Group is able and willing to replicate Aums pre "Satyan 7" efforts. 10-15 Million isnt that much Money, and People dont seem to get what a bunch of pretty weird dudes Aum Shinrikyu were. They had plenty of book knowledge for sure, but a Syrian Organisation could gain Access to People that actually worked with chemical weapon Synthesis from a number of close by Areas. Some disgruntled employees of a certain nearby dictator with a well known but defunct chemical Programm would come to mind here. Bonus Points since those employees have valid reasons to be a) Sunnis, and b) dislike the Assad Regime with a considerable degree of enthusiasm. I actually ordered the original source "The cult at the end of the world", which should give me some extra insights on how much Aum did expend on Sarin manufacture. Please bear in mind that, since Aum pioneered some stuff, the costs for repeating their Stunts are propably considerably lower then what they payed for. This doesnt Change that Sarin is, Money and effort wise, a pretty inefficient way to kill People, but if using it can cause a great power to intervene against your deadly foe the calculus may change. One should note that I did not venture into "Easier for the Syrian Opposition due to CIA/Saudi/Turkish links" territory, Aums extent of Russian intel links (really loving obvious links, like, have a cult temple like 20 loving meters away from the FSB in Moscow close) surprised/scared me. I may try to find out what happened to Russian agents involved with Aum following Putins Takeover, I mean, I can see how Aum ideology would be appealing to a bunch of FSB agents out of luck, but I am really hoping that they got purged hard meanwhile.
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Oct 2, 2014 06:54
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Are substate actors capable of positioning massive rocket launchers full of Sarin inside Syrian Army bases in Damascus? (you look absolutely ridiculous following this retarded conspiracy theory by the way and you always will)
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Oct 2, 2014 07:20
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Someone show me evidence of the Syrian opposition's giant custom built Sarin factory, the way in which they avoided strict international controls on the precursors, how they acquired the munitions that are identical to a type used by the Syrian government, and how they managed to convince a range of the opposition groups to all keep quiet about it, then I'll actually consider these theories seriously. So far it's been a year and everyone has come up empty handed, and frankly it's getting boring hearing the same half-cocked theories over and over.Snipee posted:A Kurdish friend of mine said that Turkey secured the release of the hostages by providing Daesh with military hardware. Is there any evidence for this? Has anyone heard anything similar/know if this is possible at all? There was a video last week showing a train loaded with vehicles heading towards the border, although seeing the Turkish military has been deploying hardware on their side of the border it seems it was related to that. There's been another video recently showing what's claimed to be ISIS fighters crossing the border unmolested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB4QnPa8xA0 We took a look at it here on Bellingcat, and found the exact spot, which was the Turkish border. Although it's hard to be 100% certain it's ISIS fighters, it seems possible, and at least shows how porous the Turkish border with Syria is.
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Oct 2, 2014 08:52
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nevermind
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Oct 2, 2014 08:54
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Mightypeon, what are you doing? Why are you fiddling with the details at the foothills of a grand false-flag conspiracy when the issue has already been investigated from so many angles establishing the regime as the culprit? What possible purpose can there be to arguing whether or not it's technically possible that the opposition has the capacity to produce a chemical gas weapon if they so chose? How will that advance the discussion anywhere but into the teeth of evidence showing that chemical weapons were launched from regime-controlled areas using delivery mechanisms known to be owned and used by Assad's forces in order to kill opposition fighters and/or anyone else unlucky enough to be nearby? Focusing on one comparatively irrelevant part of an overall losing argument isn't going to get you anywhere.
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Oct 2, 2014 08:54
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If a Japanese cult could do it in the 1990's a Syrian Walter White could do it in a warzone in 2012. Are you open minded enough to accept this possibility?
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Oct 2, 2014 14:28
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Also why are you Capitalizing random Words in your Posts? Are you a time-traveler sent from Victorian England to Lead us Astray?
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Oct 2, 2014 14:30
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I expect it looks like this
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Oct 2, 2014 14:47
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Oracle posted:Also why are you Capitalizing random Words in your Posts? Are you a time-traveler sent from Victorian England to Lead us Astray? He is German. In the German Language, you capitalize all of the Nouns. There is no Exception to that Rule.
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Oct 2, 2014 15:01
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Brown Moses posted:There's been another video recently showing what's claimed to be ISIS fighters crossing the border unmolested Brown Moses I put your sticker on my acer netbook, am I a CIA agent yet?
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Oct 2, 2014 15:27
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Cat Mattress posted:He is German. In the German Language, you capitalize all of the Nouns. There is no Exception to that Rule. iPad. e. e. cummings. edit: nice work Brown Moses. You forgot the torture chambers where they take innocent Alawite women and children. archaeo fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Oct 2, 2014 |
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Oct 2, 2014 15:58
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Brown Moses posted:I expect it looks like this Still one of my favorite photoshops: http://www.somethingawful.com/photoshop-phriday/bin-ladens-mountain/7/ I've been following #twitterkurds and #kobane for awhile. The more I read about the competing interests in this region the more I wonder if there is anything in the world that can save humanity. I also learned that Bashkortostan exists.
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Oct 2, 2014 16:26
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SedanChair posted:Brown Moses I put your sticker on my acer netbook, am I a CIA agent yet? If your fillings start getting warm, it's definitely not a tracker embedded into the sticker.
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Oct 2, 2014 17:08
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Is the potato skin thing a real talking point?
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Oct 2, 2014 17:09
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Bip Roberts posted:Is the potato skin thing a real talking point? It's more about the "Sarin is easy to make" talking point.
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Oct 2, 2014 17:16
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Brown Moses posted:I expect it looks like this quote:There have been reports the bin Laden has been moving around the area on horseback.  gently caress, not only are the FSA doing false flag chemical weapon bombings on themselves using technology and resources they couldn't possibly have gotten unnoticed, now they found bin Laden's body and have resurrected him as the Horseman of War. 0bummer is trying to start the Apocalypse using the FSA! Wake up sheeple!
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Oct 2, 2014 17:53
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Kobane is being assaulted directly. Guess this is the beginning of the end, barring outside intervention.
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Oct 2, 2014 18:06
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MothraAttack posted:Kobane is being assaulted directly. Guess this is the beginning of the end, barring outside intervention. Trying to wrap my head around this after following for some time - is it a matter of not having the right kind of close US/UK/Arab air support to take ISIS out while they are in the open instead of within Kobane or is it a Turkey versus PKK/YPG "we are okay if both group get wiped out?" Seems like the northern Kurds have threatened to end the cease-fire with Turkey if Kobane falls but is this inevitable no matter what? Seems like a huge humanitarian disaster waiting to happen and an having another ISIS-controlled border crossing can't be a good thing for Turkey, right? Why is Kobane playing out this way?
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Oct 2, 2014 18:23
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So apparently Turkey's parliament just backed deployment of its soldiers to Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS.
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Oct 2, 2014 18:28
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Yes, it was a re authorization from earlier this week, with an addendum allowing coalition partners to operate from Turkish soil. ISIS was discussed in the motion, so it's not impossible to imagine the YPG getting neutered in Kobane with Turkey jumping in to create a buffer in northern Syria shortly after.
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Oct 2, 2014 18:31
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IMO Turkey is waiting until last moment to reconquer that region with its military and resettle both Kurdish and Arabic refugees by their own terms and set up some kind of administration under their control.
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Oct 2, 2014 18:32
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If Erdogan doesn't go all the way and fight Assad and force a no fly zone then he's unbelievably full of poo poo.
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Oct 2, 2014 18:43
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Al-Saqr posted:If Erdogan doesn't go all the way and fight Assad and force a no fly zone then he's unbelievably full of poo poo. God I wish they'd get right of both....god I wish.....
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Oct 2, 2014 18:47
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IS has posted this video, which puts them on one of the main roads outside the center of Kobane, probably 1km away from the built up center https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfJWgjj96-4
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Oct 2, 2014 19:08
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:Trying to wrap my head around this after following for some time - is it a matter of not having the right kind of close US/UK/Arab air support to take ISIS out while they are in the open instead of within Kobane or is it a Turkey versus PKK/YPG "we are okay if both group get wiped out?" Seems like the northern Kurds have threatened to end the cease-fire with Turkey if Kobane falls but is this inevitable no matter what? Seems like a huge humanitarian disaster waiting to happen and an having another ISIS-controlled border crossing can't be a good thing for Turkey, right? Why is Kobane playing out this way? A little bit of both. It's not so much "we're ok with both groups being wiped out" so much as Turkish/PKK relations being a whole different animal than Turkish relations with Barzani's government. Nobody seems very eager to cross Turkey on its own domestic issues, and the YPG are tied in with that and aren't getting the support the peshmerga are. There have been airstrikes in the leadup to the invasion of Kobane, but Kurds have been quick to criticize them. Bombing empty buildings, long campaigns ending with 1 tank knocked out, things like that. It's just half-assed. Keep in mind ISIS has taken over 300 some odd villages in the march to Kobane. There's been every opportunity to hit them. CHP had an interesting take on Turkey's ruling. quote:Akif Hamzaçebi, deputy parliamentary group leader of the CHP, described the motion as a “battle cry” and stressed that it was not aimed at fighting against ISIL but the Bashar al-Assad regime, which could drag Turkey into war with Syria. “Where is ISIL in this motion? Mr. President was caught red-handed yesterday with his address to Parliament as he outlined that their main objective was to topple the regime,” Hamzaçebi said. “We simply do not want to draw Turkey into this fire.” http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-government-gets-ok-for-military-operations-in-syria-iraq.aspx?pageID=238&nID=72482&NewsCatID=338
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Oct 2, 2014 19:09
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Brown Moses posted:IS has posted this video, which puts them on one of the main roads outside the center of Kobane, probably 1km away from the built up center Lotta liquor bottles there, YPG. Can't say I blame them.
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Oct 2, 2014 19:21
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MothraAttack posted:Lotta liquor bottles there, YPG. Can't say I blame them. Love the fifth of JD sitting on the counter. Infantry gonna infantry.
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Oct 2, 2014 19:29
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Brown Moses posted:IS has posted this video, which puts them on one of the main roads outside the center of Kobane, probably 1km away from the built up center I haven't seen a whole lot of bodies. The YPG will probably just drop their gear and walk across the border. There are reports that YPG and PKK fighters are getting treatment in Turkey so I think the border is porous not just for IS.
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Oct 2, 2014 19:33
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What does ISIS do with Kurdish territory they take? Are they willing to accept Kurdish fighters and recruit from those territories, do they treat them like a conquered and enslaved people, or is it straight-up cleansing "get out of town before we kill you all" stuff?
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Oct 2, 2014 19:37
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Dolash posted:What does ISIS do with Kurdish territory they take? Are they willing to accept Kurdish fighters and recruit from those territories, do they treat them like a conquered and enslaved people, or is it straight-up cleansing "get out of town before we kill you all" stuff? It's too soon to say. They've taken more than 300 villages, but mostly in the past two weeks. Kurds have joined ISIS in the past, most notably lots of young men from Halabja earlier this year. That said, they'll probably treat Kurds like less trustworthy Sunnis and likely butt heads with local social networks to varying degrees. Of course, many Kurds have fled outright in fear of their harsh religious policies. Military age males might not fare well, either.
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Oct 2, 2014 19:40
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Dolash posted:What does ISIS do with Kurdish territory they take? Are they willing to accept Kurdish fighters and recruit from those territories, do they treat them like a conquered and enslaved people, or is it straight-up cleansing "get out of town before we kill you all" stuff? The Kurds have complained of massacres and enslavement but I am not entirely sure all that many Kurds are in occupied areas.
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Oct 2, 2014 19:41
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Dolash posted:What does ISIS do with Kurdish territory they take? Are they willing to accept Kurdish fighters and recruit from those territories, do they treat them like a conquered and enslaved people, or is it straight-up cleansing "get out of town before we kill you all" stuff? They probably don't have a problem keeping the women as sex slaves since they didn't shun Yezidi women, but I'd imagine in general, if you let them get between you and the Turkish border, you're dead. Don't think many have made that mistake, but that will become more difficult in the streets of Kobane. Hopefully the vast majority of the civilian population is well into Turkey by now.
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Oct 2, 2014 19:41
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Here's the latest video from the YPG in Kobane, posted about 30 minutes ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UonaUEjlNNQ
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Oct 2, 2014 19:47
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Volkerball posted:A little bit of both. It's not so much "we're ok with both groups being wiped out" so much as Turkish/PKK relations being a whole different animal than Turkish relations with Barzani's government. Nobody seems very eager to cross Turkey on its own domestic issues, and the YPG are tied in with that and aren't getting the support the peshmerga are. There have been airstrikes in the leadup to the invasion of Kobane, but Kurds have been quick to criticize them. Bombing empty buildings, long campaigns ending with 1 tank knocked out, things like that. It's just half-assed. Keep in mind ISIS has taken over 300 some odd villages in the march to Kobane. There's been every opportunity to hit them. The fire already arrived at our gates. Might as well tackle the refugee problem at our own terms. YPG being friendless is their own doing anyway. They thought they had an implicit understanding with Assad and kept FSA and Turkey at arms length. They also drove out Barzani's people. Salih Müslim was invited to Istanbul three times but he was uninterested and insulting. CHP was calling for blood while Daesh had hostages and our hands were tied. Now they want to just watch until we have a 900 km border with Caesars Legion.
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Oct 2, 2014 19:53
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Zengi posted:CHP was calling for blood while Daesh had hostages and our hands were tied. Now they want to just watch until we have a 900 km border with Caesars Legion. Can you elaborate on CHP's positions on ISIS and Assad?
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Oct 2, 2014 19:57
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Zengi posted:The fire already arrived at our gates. Might as well tackle the refugee problem at our own terms. YPG being friendless is their own doing anyway. They thought they had an implicit understanding with Assad and kept FSA and Turkey at arms length. They also drove out Barzani's people. Salih Müslim was invited to Istanbul three times but he was uninterested and insulting. I remember when Geneva was going on, the KNC were invited, but I don't think I knew any Kurds who even knew who the KNC was, let alone that they were at Geneva. They were all complaining that they would hold negotiations without any Kurdish groups present. I think Turkey could've taken some steps to cool tensions with Syrian Kurds during the march to Kobane that were missed opportunities, but yes. It doesn't seem like Kurds are making it very easy on themselves.
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Oct 2, 2014 20:04
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Kobane falling is pretty surprising to me considering so many commentators have been insisting ISIS's actual military abilities are overblown. It puts me in mind of how after the Iraqi army fell apart everyone assured each other that as soon as ISIS made contact with the Peshmerga they'd combust, but that turned out not to be the case. At this rate, are any of the groups America's looking to be their "boots on the ground" actually able to fulfill that role short of Turkey deciding to do it?
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Oct 2, 2014 20:06
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So, ISIS just going to be in control of a ghost city on the border that they can loot as they please and set up defensive positions and then destroy if they are ever forced to retreat? How can anyone think this is a good idea? Is it a sign that the US, etc. ability to change things on the ground with air power is limited or is this the result of Turkish requests/plans?
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Oct 2, 2014 20:11
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Dolash posted:Kobane falling is pretty surprising to me considering so many commentators have been insisting ISIS's actual military abilities are overblown. It puts me in mind of how after the Iraqi army fell apart everyone assured each other that as soon as ISIS made contact with the Peshmerga they'd combust, but that turned out not to be the case. At this rate, are any of the groups America's looking to be their "boots on the ground" actually able to fulfill that role short of Turkey deciding to do it? The FSA and Ahrar pushed ISIS almost out of Syria a year or so ago. But they're bleeding fighters and ISIS is only getting stronger. When it comes to the military aspect of it, ISIS had a lot of tanks and modern equipment they jacked from the ISF, which helped them keep pushing the Kurds back. But in Kobane, it's urban, and all that counts for jack poo poo. So the actual street fighting in the coming days will be more telling. The YPG has been preparing for this fight for a while. ISIS will take heavy losses if they push all the way to the Turkish border.
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Oct 2, 2014 20:12
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Volkerball posted:The FSA and Ahrar pushed ISIS almost out of Syria a year or so ago. But they're bleeding fighters and ISIS is only getting stronger. When it comes to the military aspect of it, ISIS had a lot of tanks and modern equipment they jacked from the ISF, which helped them keep pushing the Kurds back. But in Kobane, it's urban, and all that counts for jack poo poo. So the actual street fighting in the coming days will be more telling. The YPG has been preparing for this fight for a while. ISIS will take heavy losses if they push all the way to the Turkish border. We've been telling ourselves variations of "X group (mostly the Kurds) is going to kick ISIS's rear end" for quite a while now, and it hasn't really come true has it? ISIS might not be able to use tanks and such in Kobane, but the sad truth is probably that they are going to drive YPG out of Kobane way easier than we hoped.
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Oct 2, 2014 20:17
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