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Not to brag, but so far my guess chart is right on the dot. If it's still right, then tomorrow should see an up day in the beginning and then once it gets to 1129 or so, the down-train begins and no ups in sight for the rest of the week, although intraday volatility is a definite probability.
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May 19, 2010 05:06
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ayekappy posted:Not to brag, but so far my guess chart is right on the dot. If it's still right, then tomorrow should see an up day in the beginning and then once it gets to 1129 or so, the down-train begins and no ups in sight for the rest of the week, although intraday volatility is a definite probability. I can't stand posts like this, you're like a horse racing junkie- you spend all day thinking about fantasy scenarios and analyzing random data with absolutely no basis other than hopes and dreams.
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May 19, 2010 06:35
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Do any of you use Stotchastics to try and predict the tops and bottoms of a trading range during periods of volatility? I'm no expert on indicators (and charting in general tbh) but I've noticed that buying at %D < 20 and selling at > 80 can be frighteningly predictable for some securities. However I would like to know if there are better indicators to watch.
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May 19, 2010 06:37
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Josh Lyman posted:Does anyone have WSJ online access? I got linked to this article by someone but I can't read it: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703745904575248661121721980.html#articleTabs%3Darticle http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...l=&oq=&gs_rfai=
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May 19, 2010 06:41
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dethkon posted:Do any of you use Stotchastics to try and predict the tops and bottoms of a trading range during periods of volatility? I'm no expert on indicators (and charting in general tbh) but I've noticed that buying at %D < 20 and selling at > 80 can be frighteningly predictable for some securities. However I would like to know if there are better indicators to watch. I've been running around with MACD and %K
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May 19, 2010 08:13
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Dr. Jackal posted:I've been running around with MACD and %K All indictators and attempts at predicting the market fail. I have written simulators for everyone you could imagine and they all fail equally well. Also backtesting is a complete waste of anyones time, there is no possibility to create a system off of backtesting that will produce future returns, without of course just getting lucky temporarily.
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May 19, 2010 16:46
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Why exactly is Germany's ban on naked short selling considered major news? It's been banned in the US for years.
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May 19, 2010 17:00
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Hobologist posted:Why exactly is Germany's ban on naked short selling considered major news? It's been banned in the US for years. It gives the people who check zerohedge a new thing to hyperventilate about.
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May 19, 2010 17:04
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Hobologist posted:Why exactly is Germany's ban on naked short selling considered major news? It's been banned in the US for years. It's the ban on naked CDS trading that's getting people up in a tizzy. It also exposes a rift between France and Germany, making investors anxious.
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May 19, 2010 17:15
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A ban on naked credit default swaps would have prevented a lot of the problem in the first place
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May 19, 2010 18:07
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Agreed, though there is something to be said for providing liquidity. On the other hand, do insurance policies really need to be liquid in the first place?
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May 19, 2010 18:11
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Hobologist posted:A ban on naked credit default swaps would have prevented a lot of the problem in the first place Why? I thought that the outstanding CDS exposure on the Eurozone countries which are in trouble was even less than the ones that aren't, and certainly under 5% of outstanding debt, if not under 2%. Also I seem to remember the bond spreads widening before CDS - everything seems to imply that bonds have led CDS and not the other way around.
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May 19, 2010 19:40
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f2a posted:Why? I thought that the outstanding CDS exposure on the Eurozone countries which are in trouble was even less than the ones that aren't, and certainly under 5% of outstanding debt, if not under 2%. Also I seem to remember the bond spreads widening before CDS - everything seems to imply that bonds have led CDS and not the other way around. I thought that he was referencing the meltdown of 2008/2009 not the current European problems. The current EU sovereign debt woes were definitely not caused by CDS speculation and "wolf packs" which is one thing that makes the German response so puzzling. I'm not convinced it's not due, in part, to Germany v. France territorial pissing. Then there's this (which is in foreign, quote below is from FT Alphaville): quote:1. Failing to comply with deficit reduction means temporary loss of EU Structural Funds. Which RBS says means this quote:The last part is gunpowder, gelatine, dynamite with a laserbeam. To see this consider the most likely defaulter: Greece. If Greece can not manage the austerity then it will be pushed into a possible new insolvency proceeding, with markets back to trading recovery prices for bonds.
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May 19, 2010 19:51
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greasyhands posted:I can't stand posts like this, you're like a horse racing junkie- you spend all day thinking about fantasy scenarios and analyzing random data with absolutely no basis other than hopes and dreams. Well I was wrong about 1128! Only got to 1124. Poop. It's not all random data, and it's fun to analyze it, so  .
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May 19, 2010 19:55
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:I thought that he was referencing the meltdown of 2008/2009 not the current European problems. The current EU sovereign debt woes were definitely not caused by CDS speculation and "wolf packs" which is one thing that makes the German response so puzzling. I thought it sounded like the current problems. Just in case, here's a source which reckons $9bn CDS on $400bn debt: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/26/211756/greek-2-year-bond-yield-rises-above-13-per-cent/ Even the 2008/2009 meltdown is dubious - how exactly did naked CDS cause it? The problem a lot of people seem to have is that people could insure debt they didn't own, but the big losses came from the CDS writers. AIG wrote a lot of CDS - does it matter whether the people on the other side were hedging or speculating?
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May 19, 2010 20:12
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This one goes out to my girl DOW JONES http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGV-NoJ_jgU
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May 19, 2010 20:13
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f2a posted:Even the 2008/2009 meltdown is dubious - how exactly did naked CDS cause it? The problem a lot of people seem to have is that people could insure debt they didn't own, but the big losses came from the CDS writers. AIG wrote a lot of CDS - does it matter whether the people on the other side were hedging or speculating? That's a fair point and I'm not saying that naked CDS was a sole cause of anything. I do think it's possible that the degree of fuckage may have been diminished were AIG only writing swaps for debt owners. But there is a legitimate liquidity benefit and preventing debt owners from selling swaps they own on that debt is a terrible idea. At any rate, yah, political posturing from Merkel.
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May 19, 2010 20:28
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:That's a fair point and I'm not saying that naked CDS was a sole cause of anything. I do think it's possible that the degree of fuckage may have been diminished were AIG only writing swaps for debt owners. Even this is a bit sketchy, though I haven't really seen the right figures to judge. If the worry behind naked shorts was really risk related, surely people should've been calling on AIG to short bonds against the CDS, given that the writer is the person taking all the risk?
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May 19, 2010 20:56
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f2a posted:Even this is a bit sketchy, though I haven't really seen the right figures to judge. Well wasn't that the source of anger after the fact, that AIG had no hedges on against the CDS? I have no figures one way or the other and hindsight speculation isn't terribly constructive. With Germany, however, I think that the naked CDS ban will prove to have done more harm than good.
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May 19, 2010 21:36
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DOW, S&P, or NASDAQ close in the red tomorrow or I get banned. Apart from that challenge, I suspect them all to be down 2% or more tomorrow by close.
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May 19, 2010 22:07
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ayekappy posted:DOW, S&P, or NASDAQ close in the red tomorrow or I get banned. (edit: for the record, I'm not hugely optimistic on the markets right now and am sitting in cash - I just love a good banme challenge) Dr. Eldarion fucked around with this message at 22:26 on May 19, 2010 |
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May 19, 2010 22:24
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Anyone have any contacts at the Fed or GS?...
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May 19, 2010 22:54
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Dr. Eldarion posted:Okay. You're being held to that. Good old short squeeze of the 200 ma in sites...
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May 19, 2010 23:28
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Hobologist posted:A ban on naked credit default swaps would have prevented a lot of the problem in the first place How would cds not being allowed get rid of this problem? They don't surge in volume usually till there is a problem. Also, the interest rates are all low so its impossible to hedge risk without them, sounds all too familiar to the housing market? You don't blame someone buying insurance on you for you having a lovely economy and government. Also, the banning is pretty close to murmurings of that sovereign bankruptcy lawyer working with Greece to work something out still.
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May 19, 2010 23:29
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ayekappy posted:DOW, S&P, or NASDAQ close in the red tomorrow or I get banned. I'm so gonna invest a few hundred billion tomorrow to get you banned
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May 19, 2010 23:49
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ChubbyEmoBabe posted:I'm so gonna invest a few hundred billion tomorrow to get you banned Just don't blow so much money on dumb speculative plays that you end up overdrafting your bank account multiple times and have to start a thread about it. Here's to a market rally tomorrow.
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May 19, 2010 23:59
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That's a low blow considering I could be banned by 4:00(4:15)pm tomorrow!
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May 20, 2010 00:04
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:Well wasn't that the source of anger after the fact, that AIG had no hedges on against the CDS? That would be sensible, but most of the anger seems to stem from CDS buyers using insurance-type contracts without an insurable interest. When politicians/journalists talk about banning or regulating naked CDS, they almost always seem to be talking about people buying protection without owning the underlying bonds - the writers having a massive unhedged tail risk isn't really seen as an issue.
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May 20, 2010 09:19
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f2a posted:That would be sensible, but most of the anger seems to stem from CDS buyers using insurance-type contracts without an insurable interest. When politicians/journalists talk about banning or regulating naked CDS, they almost always seem to be talking about people buying protection without owning the underlying bonds - the writers having a massive unhedged tail risk isn't really seen as an issue. Yes, exactly. Just to be clear I'm not saying that CDS trading can make a debtor default on the underlying, because that's nonsensical. It can be argued that widening CDS spreads could make it more expensive to issue new debt but it seems that artificially wide spreads would lead to statistical arb scenarios and couldn't cause system-wide problems. The real problem is just as you said: being long an unhedged CDS without the capital to make good on you obligations. Related from Reuters, same as it ever was. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 12:42 on May 20, 2010 |
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May 20, 2010 10:47
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Looks like he might survive! Greece protests, thai's capital on fire, and north korea saying if any action is taken they will have all out war. Futures tanked...
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May 20, 2010 12:58
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Christobevii3 posted:Looks like he might survive! Greece protests, thai's capital on fire, and north korea saying if any action is taken they will have all out war. Futures tanked... Jobless claims went up a lot too
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May 20, 2010 14:24
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2 minutes into market open, DOW down 178 points. When is this poo poo gonna get back onto normal footing? Just wish I had some cash so I could setup some trailing buy orders.
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May 20, 2010 14:32
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ayekappy posted:That's a low blow considering I could be banned by 4:00(4:15)pm tomorrow! fffffffffffffffffffffff hope you put money where your predictions were
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May 20, 2010 14:42
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I'd hope he put money where his predictions aren't. Been completely liquid as of Wednesday, not taking any chances for now, although I might jump back into SNSS today before the ASCO data comes out.
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May 20, 2010 15:11
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Dr. Jackal posted:fffffffffffffffffffffff hope you put money where your predictions were Well as my smartass callout implied, he did start a thread about overdrafting the hell out of his account, so I don't think he has any...  Really tempted to go bargain hunting in the metals or coal sectors, but I already have a good chunk of change invested in materials. At least I have an ex-date hitting in my TNK position if nothing else happens.
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May 20, 2010 16:38
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:Well wasn't that the source of anger after the fact, that AIG had no hedges on against the CDS? Properly speaking, AIG had no collateral against the CDSs. When their credit got downgraded they got the king of all margin calls. The trouble with synthetic CDOs is that the exposure to a particular instrument grew to many times the value of the instrument, so the slightest problem was compounded many times.
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May 20, 2010 17:04
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Tom Rakewell posted:Well as my smartass callout implied, he did start a thread about overdrafting the hell out of his account, so I don't think he has any... No, I had a minimum in my checking account because it was all in my market account.
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May 20, 2010 19:01
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ayekappy posted:No, I had a minimum in my checking account because it was all in my market account. Sound money management itt.
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May 20, 2010 19:13
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The Senate has just closed debate on the financial reform bill. I do like reform, but I'm still not sure about the bill.
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May 20, 2010 19:57
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Why the hell is USDEUR up a lot? Usually with selloffs the dollar goes a good bit higher.
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May 20, 2010 21:00
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