|
Confidence in the EUR eroding due to all the gently caress ups with Greece the last few weeks?
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 21:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 06:06 |
|
|
By god I hope this is the beginning of the monster sell off in CRM to the 40s. I can't even begin to understand who decided they wanted that stock enough for it to lift off to where it did. All this while CYD trades below book value and almost at net cash on hand having an EPS in Q1 of CRMs FY 2011 EPS.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 21:17
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:Why the hell is USDEUR up a lot? Usually with selloffs the dollar goes a good bit higher. Carry trades unwinding.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 21:39
|
|
|
Good game banme challenge: ayekappy: 2 banme challenge: 0
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 22:02
|
|
|
ayekappy posted:Good game banme challenge:
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 22:06
|
|
|
ayekappy posted:Good game banme challenge: whats it going to do tomorrow, oh oracle of BFC.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 22:08
|
|
|
I would say a retrace ordinarily, but I'm guessing probably almost just as bad of a day. Futures even broke 10k DOW a little ago. Monday will probably be the retrace day. edit: I regret not adding this earlier, I thought there might be a gap up to ~1080 then 1086-1091 or so and then big down, another 2%+ from this close. No banme challenge though. 
ayekappy fucked around with this message at 01:04 on May 21, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 22:23
|
|
|
Looking at the DOW over the course of the past 6 months resembles EXACTLY how the DOW has looked over the last two year. Of course the alarming thing is the duration of this most recent boom/bust. I want a list of companies that are getting/have been party to the massive sell-off that's happening, mostly due to the Europe situation I assume, but will regain traction in a few months due to being stable and good long-term stocks. Also lot's of conjecture to read here: http://thefastertimes.com/wallstreet/2010/05/20/ive-never-heard-more-chatter-about-an-imminent-market-crash-in-my-life/ I don't foresee things being quite as apocalyptic as the author mentions in the post but there's a lot of international turmoil going on right now that will only get progressively more alarming. Dotcom Jillionaire fucked around with this message at 22:50 on May 20, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 22:37
|
|
|
tehschulman posted:
thats what we all want...
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2010 23:00
|
|
|
so basically we had May 6th "Flash Crash" happen slowly over the week? shorted MA and PRU, helped recover my losses from QCOM  fuckin' QCOM.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 00:08
|
|
|
Talked about MO above, but there are some great dividend stocks that are really cheap.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 02:17
|
|
|
MayakovskyMarmite posted:Talked about MO above, but there are some great dividend stocks that are really cheap. Cheap because? Remember the sp 500 earnings estimates going into 2008 please.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 02:21
|
|
|
MayakovskyMarmite posted:Talked about MO above, but there are some great dividend stocks that are really cheap. MO is good. Hopefully it will get a bit lower and offer a good point to enter. But, why not wait for RSO to tank even more and you might get yourself a 20% dividend! Or the BP route after the full extent of the carnage is known. 
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 02:57
|
|
|
MayakovskyMarmite posted:Talked about MO above, but there are some great dividend stocks that are really cheap. I loved MO at 15, and I like it around 20. Outperform the SPY with hot hot dividend action but the huge risk is in litigation or legislation. Thankfully the Obama administration is a little too tied up in other issues to really be doing anything. I finally am flat on my long volatility trade, which was my biggest 9/11 never forget trade ever. Yes I owned VXX; would have probably had more fun burning money, or better yet, buying TLT in the high 80s. edit: anyone willing to take the over on 1.20 EURUSD by the end of the month? PsychoAndy fucked around with this message at 04:33 on May 21, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 04:27
|
|
|
Free Gucci Mane posted:Bought into VXX @24 this morning, strongly considering buying more. Trying to sell this tomorrow morning--could have done better if I hadn't panicked and sold before rebuying but still made my first couple hundred on the market so I'm pretty happy (that's assuming I don't get hosed by early-hours trading) Free Gucci Mane fucked around with this message at 07:55 on May 21, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 07:52
|
|
|
Short VXX at $35.40 as a day trade. I don't believe that vol is done (nor do I think that VXX is a good vol tracker) there are just so many people looking to dump it before the weekend. Edit: That was quick (and annoying). Set my stop too tight on the way down, stopped out by 1 loving tick @34.75 and now I just have to watch it dive... Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 14:51 on May 21, 2010 |
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 14:39
|
|
|
ayekappy posted:I would say a retrace ordinarily, but I'm guessing probably almost just as bad of a day. Futures even broke 10k DOW a little ago. Monday will probably be the retrace day. looks like retrace is happening early? I wake up early now just to watch people on CNBC poo poo their pants and un-poo poo them.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 15:08
|
|
|
So I made a ton during the uber-bull using margin shamelessly and of course lost all those gains this month. Is there a "correct" way to use margin? Some kind of bankroll strategy perhaps?
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 15:50
|
|
|
fougera posted:So I made a ton during the uber-bull using margin shamelessly and of course lost all those gains this month. Is there a "correct" way to use margin? Some kind of bankroll strategy perhaps? no
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 16:41
|
|
|
fougera posted:So I made a ton during the uber-bull using margin shamelessly and of course lost all those gains this month. Is there a "correct" way to use margin? Some kind of bankroll strategy perhaps? As far as I know the only "correct" way to use margin is to use it to cover gaps caused by trade clearing/settlement.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 18:22
|
|
|
ChubbyEmoBabe posted:As far as I know the only "correct" way to use margin is to use it to cover gaps caused by trade clearing/settlement.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 19:15
|
|
|
During the last crash it took me all of three days to regain the lost ground. Here's hoping for a repeat. Of course, it doesn't help that the price of oil is down even further since then.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2010 20:50
|
|
|
Made a long-term play on STD before open this morning. Nice to have some immediate validation so I can get on with the "forget it" part of set it and forget it.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2010 00:11
|
|
|
Wow, I was actually pretty right besides the whole crash after 1092 part. I guess that's for Monday. Mondays are good crash days anyways.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2010 02:25
|
|
|
Grabbed Caterpillar on Thursday after the correction. I think it's going to bump back in a big way 6 or 9 months down the road, what with the improving new housing market and general recovery in the construction sector. Seems like a good chance to get on it before the company (and it's price) actually recover. Plus my relatives in Indiana say that they're calling back the workers they laid off earlier - they wouldn't do that unless they expected increased production. Welp that's my prediction see you in 6 months.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2010 06:14
|
|
|
Jonked posted:Grabbed Caterpillar on Thursday after the correction. I think it's going to bump back in a big way 6 or 9 months down the road, what with the improving new housing market and general recovery in the construction sector. Seems like a good chance to get on it before the company (and it's price) actually recover. Plus my relatives in Indiana say that they're calling back the workers they laid off earlier - they wouldn't do that unless they expected increased production. Improving housing market? What?
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2010 13:35
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Improving housing market? What?
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2010 13:57
|
|
|
Did you not see the most recent numbers? 9.5% drop in mortgage apps since the housing credit came off. Builders are dumb slow entities that don't react fast enough. They have around 660,000 housing starts set for the year. That is the level of 1991...
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2010 14:46
|
|
|
Not to mention the albatross of defaults that continue to pile on. The bulls best news is that it's getting slightly less bad.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2010 18:53
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Did you not see the most recent numbers? 9.5% drop in mortgage apps since the housing credit came off. Builders are dumb slow entities that don't react fast enough. They have around 660,000 housing starts set for the year. That is the level of 1991...
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 00:55
|
|
|
ChubbyEmoBabe posted:Not to mention the albatross of defaults that continue to pile on. The bulls best news is that it's getting slightly less bad. pile on or was it increase, housing is going to be poo poo for longer!
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 03:08
|
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Did you not see the most recent numbers? 9.5% drop in mortgage apps since the housing credit came off. Builders are dumb slow entities that don't react fast enough. They have around 660,000 housing starts set for the year. That is the level of 1991... What did you expect to see happen when the housing credit ended? I'm not going to be the one who says "the housing market is fine" or even "improving" but apps dropping after a $8k credit expires should be expected and doesn't indicate any kind of backslide.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 07:10
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:What did you expect to see happen when the housing credit ended? I'm not going to be the one who says "the housing market is fine" or even "improving" but apps dropping after a $8k credit expires should be expected and doesn't indicate any kind of backslide.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 15:52
|
|
|
Dr. Eldarion posted:I think the point is that the only reason they were recovering in the first place was because of the credit, and that they didn't necessarily get worse, but they didn't get any better either. Housing statistics are also measured year over year. As we start to move past the one year mark on the theoretical "bottom", housing is only going to look better. Even if "better" only means that it is not as bad as it once was.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 17:14
|
|
|
Also a pressure on housing is I feel there is an immense "shadow inventory" out there, as expressed in this Calculated Risk post. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/05/mothballed-condos-offered-for-sale.html
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 17:57
|
|
|
Anyone else see google as a bargain, the market hates them right now but they are going to keep going at a good pace for a while and with 25 billion in cash taken off their CY p/e is like 14. I/o conference was impressive but none of that will affect earnings for a year or two. Seems like a safe play to me.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 18:30
|
|
|
abagofcheetos posted:Also a pressure on housing is I feel there is an immense "shadow inventory" out there, as expressed in this Calculated Risk post. The thing with the "shadow inventory" is that these are people who are not going to sell their house unless they can get a certain price for it. So while yes they are there, you won't see them surface en mass unless prices improve. In the end though, the housing recovery is going to be dependent on unemployment. People with no jobs do not buy houses. People with no jobs do not keep up with their mortgage payments. Once unemployment drops off I think you will see distressed sales drop off and a new group of buyers on the market. Once distressed sales drop off, you will see a substantial increase in prices.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 18:33
|
|
|
Bigntasty posted:Anyone else see google as a bargain, the market hates them right now but they are going to keep going at a good pace for a while and with 25 billion in cash taken off their CY p/e is like 14. I/o conference was impressive but none of that will affect earnings for a year or two. Seems like a safe play to me. They're pretty strong fundamentally but a lot of anti-trust concerns are popping up for them. I'm eyeing a buy around $450 in the near term.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 19:09
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:The thing with the "shadow inventory" is that these are people who are not going to sell their house unless they can get a certain price for it. So while yes they are there, you won't see them surface en mass unless prices improve. Shadow inventory is bank foreclosures that have been in foreclosure process for a long time but never completed since with current accounting rules you have to do nothing if you keep the house under the buyers name. If you foreclosure you bring it onto the banks balance sheet and write down the asset.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 19:29
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 06:06 |
|
|
Christobevii3 posted:Shadow inventory is bank foreclosures that have been in foreclosure process for a long time but never completed since with current accounting rules you have to do nothing if you keep the house under the buyers name. If you foreclosure you bring it onto the banks balance sheet and write down the asset. And that's why I have had a hard time becoming bullish for a long long time. Millions of homes not on those loving balance sheets even though they most certainly should be. ~$150,000,000,000 would be the the exposure for 1 million homes that were priced at 300k going for 150k. $150 billion may not seem like much, but I believe the amount of pending foreclosures is somewhere near 10 million. $1.5 trillion seems like a familiar number that a number of people assume will translate into hyperinflation... hahaha. Hey guys, if we start hyperinflating, instead of raising insterest rates and all that poo poo, why don't we let the banks start foreclosing on some houses?
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2010 23:21
|
|