MLB N/V February: Colorado has been eliminated from playoff contention

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB N/V February: Colorado has been eliminated from playoff contention

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Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

Everblight posted:

This is just this off-season, right? Because last I checked A-Rod wasn't drafted by the Yankees.

Yes, it's just this year.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 06:06

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# ? May 25, 2024 13:54

UZR IS BULLSHIT: Jan 25, 2004

N: Kershaw says no DH in the NL

V: As the best pitcher, he should get to decide

# ? Feb 3, 2016 06:18

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

CubsWoo posted:

The Cubs would probably do well re-signing him but that also means finding someone who will take Soler for a #3-4 starter or thereabouts. Even with guys like Wood/Cahill/Warren who can be stretched if Hammel is still broken and Hendricks is meh, getting Heyward in his natural position and not forcing him to be flanked by two defensive black holes for most of the season could be worth losing Soler's potential.

E: Cahill's contract incentives pay him $750k if he hits 18 starts, $100k for 21, $1.25 million for 24 and another $1.5 million at 27, 29, and 31 starts. Also $100k for 60 appearances, $150k for 65 and $200k for 70, plus $300k if he finishes 25.

Soler for Scott Feldman, do it

# ? Feb 3, 2016 07:03

Lumpy: Apr 26, 2002; La! La! La! Laaaa!; College Slice

UZR IS BULLSHIT posted:

N: Kershaw says no DH in the NL

V: As the best pitcher, he should get to decide

So who would get to pick for NL in the playoffs? :downsrim:

# ? Feb 3, 2016 13:02

FairGame: Jul 24, 2001; Der Kommander

Lumpy posted:

So who would get to pick for NL in the playoffs?

Madison Bumgarner, obviously, so you still don't want the DH.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 13:37

seiferguy: Jun 9, 2005; FLAWED
INTUITION; Toilet Rascal

The Mariners are apparently answering the question of the 1st base platoon by signing Lee Dae-Ho from Korea. He spent 4 years in Japan and hit 31 dingers last season, which isn't Wlad Balentien levels, but not bad regardless.

I suppose this means the end of the Jesus Montero experiment.

edit: holy poo poo he's 6'4", 285lbs. Prince Fielder won't be the only fat dude in the AL West anymore.

2nd edit: his highlight video owns, mainly because you see a bunch of :smith:

pitchers after giving up a massive home run.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmOdNEaBvWM

seiferguy fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Feb 3, 2016

# ? Feb 3, 2016 17:13

Salvor_Hardin: Sep 13, 2005; I want to go protest.; Nap Ghost

UZR IS BULLSHIT posted:

N: Kershaw says no DH in the NL

V: As the best pitcher, he should get to decide

A pitcher enjoys pitching to a useless hitter 11% of the time? Quell surprise.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 17:51

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

seiferguy posted:

The Mariners are apparently answering the question of the 1st base platoon by signing Lee Dae-Ho from Korea. He spent 4 years in Japan and hit 31 dingers last season, which isn't Wlad Balentien levels, but not bad regardless.

I suppose this means the end of the Jesus Montero experiment.

Time for the Yankees to buy low :kheldragar:

# ? Feb 3, 2016 17:55

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

Phillies traded Jesse Biddle to the Pirates for an unknown return

# ? Feb 3, 2016 18:16

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

FlamingLiberal posted:

Phillies traded Jesse Biddle to the Pirates for an unknown return

Wasn't he DFA'd recently?

# ? Feb 3, 2016 18:26

Poque: Sep 11, 2003; =^-^=

FlamingLiberal posted:

Phillies traded Jesse Biddle to the Pirates for an unknown return

Phillies receive a dented gatorade jug in return.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 18:26

mentholmoose: Nov 5, 2009; YKNOW THERES ONLY ONE DIRECTION I KNOW AND THATS DRIVIN STRAIGHT TO THE NET

Haha, Biddle just had TJS and then got DFA'ed. That pick was a total bust then.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 18:39

achillesforever6: Apr 23, 2012; psst you wanna do a communism?

Poque posted:

Phillies receive a dented gatorade jug in return.

But we already signed Sean Rodriguez? :confused:

# ? Feb 3, 2016 19:25

davecrazy: Nov 25, 2004; I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.

Aparently the Nats clubhouse is : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOZuxwVk7TU

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2016/01/25/ken-rosenthal-says-free-agents-view-nationals-as-toxic/

quote:

�That�s a possible factor, Harold,� said Rosenthal. �And I did hear that from one agent of another player this week, that one aspect of this that made him reluctant was the fact that it is Team Boras in the perception of so many.�

�But at the same time, all these issues could go away if Dusty Baker helps make them go away and they play better,� he said. �One of the problems of course last year, they didn�t play very well, so these things came to the surface. The idea that this is Team Toxic, as well as Team Boras; that idea is out there. And the Nationals can dispute it all they want, but they�ve struck out a few times here.�

�And, again, while the individuals can all be saying this is a specific reason in each case, when you add it all up, you start to wonder,� he said.

The Nats are going to win like 98 games.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 19:46

CubsWoo: Aug 17, 2005; Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Intruder posted:

Soler for Scott Feldman, do it

Let's go ahead and add the qualifiers "Young and cost-controlled" to the starter, thanks

We do have this Matt Szczur though, what he lacks in vowels he makes up for in AAAA talent

# ? Feb 3, 2016 19:54

Poque: Sep 11, 2003; =^-^=

CubsWoo posted:

We do have this Matt Szczur though, what he lacks in vowels he makes up for in AAAA talent

send Szczur, Soler, and Baez to the south side for Chris Sale and re-sign Dex

while I'm dreaming up impossible situations, give the Cardinals a postseason ban for the next five seasons

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:03

FairGame: Jul 24, 2001; Der Kommander

davecrazy posted:

Aparently the Nats clubhouse is : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOZuxwVk7TU

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2016/01/25/ken-rosenthal-says-free-agents-view-nationals-as-toxic/

The Nats are going to win like 98 games.

All that, and still no mention of those loving idiots being unwilling to eat Papelbon's salary to get him and his dumb rear end off the team. I'm gonna laugh and laugh when Bryce Harper takes a comparable offer to be Anywhere But Washington in a few years. Unless it's with the Cubs, I guess.

I hope the Nats lose 98 games.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:10

Casnorf: Jun 14, 2002; Never drive a car when you're a fish

It really is super conflicting to be a Nats fan. Just like any other Washington sports fan I suppose.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:26

CubsWoo: Aug 17, 2005; Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Updated Fangraphs Steamer projections with current FA signings/trades:

code:

Red Sox 91-71 (#1 seed)
Yankees 85-77 (WC1)
Blue Jays 84-78 (Tie, WC2)
Rays 82-80
Orioles 78-84

Indians 84-78 (#3 seed)
Tigers 82-80
White Sox 81-81
Royals 79-83
Twins 77-85

Astros 86-76 (#2 seed)
Mariners 84-78 (Tie, WC2)
Rangers 82-80
Angels 81-81
Athletics 78-84


Nationals 88-74 (#3 seed)
Mets 85-77 (WC2)
Marlins 81-81
Braves 68-94
Phillies 66-96

Cubs 95-67 (#1 seed)
Cardinals 84-78
Pirates 83-79
Reds 73-89
Brewers 70-92

Dodgers 91-71 (#2 seed)
Giants 86-76 (WC1)
Diamondbacks 79-83
Rockies 75-87
Padres 75-87

Top 5 offenses: BOS, TOR, DET, CHC,TEX
Top 5 pitching/defense: LAD, SFG, CHC, NYM, WSH
Best projected run differential: CHC, BOS, LAD, WSH, HOU

Worst 5 offenses: PHI, SDP, ATL, CIN, SFG
Worst 5 pitching/defense: COL, MIL, BAL, DET, MIN
Worst projected run differential: PHI, ATL, MIL, CIN, COL

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:40

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

I like the looks of that :getin:

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:43

Harlock: Jan 15, 2006; Tap "A" to drink!!!

That's a pretty depressing projection system for the AL.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:44

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

davecrazy posted:

Aparently the Nats clubhouse is : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOZuxwVk7TU

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2016/01/25/ken-rosenthal-says-free-agents-view-nationals-as-toxic/

The Nats are going to win like 98 games.

MLB had a list of most important off-season acquisitions and I think Dusty was like #7 which sounds crazy but it might actually be true. If he's the one guy that can keep the players focused on just playing baseball and not fighting each other if they lose a few games in April, then they got it right.

RE: Projections
Projecting the Cubs to win 95 games can only end in disappointment.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:47

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

The Dodgers projection doesn't include Kenta Maeda at all btw. Obviously it's tough to project him but worth noting.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 20:59

IcePhoenix: Sep 18, 2005; Take me to your Shida

I feel like the Diamondbacks should be better than that, someone tell me what I'm missing.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:02

seiferguy: Jun 9, 2005; FLAWED
INTUITION; Toilet Rascal

Normally I'm homer as all hell about the Mariners, but I don't see them breaking 80 wins this season unless a lot goes right.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:03

Poque: Sep 11, 2003; =^-^=

IcePhoenix posted:

I feel like the Diamondbacks should be better than that, someone tell me what I'm missing.

They have maybe three major league hitters

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:08

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

bawfuls posted:

The Dodgers projection doesn't include Kenta Maeda at all btw. Obviously it's tough to project him but worth noting.

Even if they made a projection for him, I have to assume it would include heavy regression toward an average MLB pitcher so I think you'd only get a small boost over their worst starter or whatever combination of starters he'd replace. Alex Wood coming in as their worst non-injured starting pitcher at 3.95 FIP is not bad.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:09

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

Poque posted:

They have maybe three major league hitters

And about 2.5 pitchers

tadashi posted:

Even if they made a projection for him, I have to assume it would include heavy regression toward an average MLB pitcher so I think you'd only get a small boost over their worst starter or whatever combination of starters he'd replace.

Yeah that's true, he'd project about the same as Anderson/Kazmir/Wood/Ryu (all about 1.5-2.5 WAR) so he just adds depth instead of improving the overall projection. That raises the Dodgers' floor but doesn't do much to raise the ceiling.

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Feb 3, 2016

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:09

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

IcePhoenix posted:

I feel like the Diamondbacks should be better than that, someone tell me what I'm missing.

Steamer's FIP projection hates Shelby Miller, who's projected to be their #2 starter in terms of innings. Their only 2+ WAR pitchers are Kershaw and Ross.

It only has Goldschmidt and Pollock as 2+ WAR position players. Tomas is projected to be a .1 WAR player. I think they just have so many platoons and so many players who have had consistency issues that it's really hard to project their team. I thought they would be better than the projections last year, even before they fixed their catcher situation, for similar reasons.

I was trying to figure out how Steamer found 341 plate appearances for Oswaldo Arica but then I noticed it does not have anything for Park.

tadashi fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Feb 3, 2016

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:15

Ammat The Ankh: Sep 7, 2010; Now, attempt to defeat me!
And I shall become a living legend!

CubsWoo posted:

Worst 5 offenses: PHI, SDP, ATL, CIN, SFG
Worst 5 pitching/defense: COL, MIL, BAL, DET, MIN
Worst projected run differential: PHI, ATL, MIL, CIN, COL

Uhhh SF gets Hunter Pence back, goes from having the seventh best offense (even after the injury replacements got injured at the end of the year) to the fifth worse?

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:16

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

tadashi posted:

Steamer's FIP projection hates Shelby Miller, who's projected to be their #2 starter in terms of innings. Their only 2+ WAR pitchers are Kershaw and Ross.

WOAH there hoss, they stole a different really good pitcher from the Dodgers this winter.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:20

IcePhoenix: Sep 18, 2005; Take me to your Shida

tadashi posted:

I was trying to figure out how Steamer found 341 plate appearances for Oswaldo Arica but then I noticed it does not have anything for Park.

I wasn't going to bring up the Twins, though bottom five pitching is probably accurate :v:

As far as Arcia goes, he's out of options so he'll probably end up on the opening day roster, unfortunately.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:20

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

Ammat The Ankh posted:

Uhhh SF gets Hunter Pence back, goes from having the seventh best offense (even after the injury replacements got injured at the end of the year) to the fifth worse?

Surprise, projection systems don't buy into Matt Duffy and Joe Panik being 4+ WAR players again!

(It still projects them both over 3.0 though so it's not exactly making GBS threads all over them either)

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Feb 3, 2016

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:21

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

Ammat The Ankh posted:

Uhhh SF gets Hunter Pence back, goes from having the seventh best offense (even after the injury replacements got injured at the end of the year) to the fifth worse?

It projects a big fall-off for Duffy since he had that relative power surge last season. It sees Panik as a .278 hitter for some reason. Crawford got off to a slow start in the OBP department to his career so some of his older numbers are still dragging down his projections, it seems.

I think Steamer is the best system at projecting veterans and rookies/early career players and not as good as ZiPS at middle-year guys, if I remember correctly?

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:22

Tavarin: May 10, 2003; I am definitely a madman with a box

People really shouldn't take Steamer seriously.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:23

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

Tavarin posted:

People really shouldn't take Steamer seriously.

The problem with every projection system, imo, is they are trying to get the largest amount of players possible as correct as possible so it can break down very very quickly if you focus in on any one smaller group of players, like just looking at one team. And they're really just guessing at depth charts so :shrug:

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:26

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

I feel like the projections are still way too high on Panda and Hanley, specifically Hanley. And I don't think the Jays are gonna fall off that hard.

I figure the Yankees come in a few games above the projection, since :bullpen: and the usual magic that lets us do that. WC1 would be great though, gently caress one-game play-ins.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:28

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

Hanley had a 132 OPS+ over the 3 years prior to last season and Panda was at 116+.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:32

Rand alPaul: Feb 3, 2010; by Nyc_Tattoo

Harlock posted:

That's a pretty depressing projection system for the AL.

Yeah the AL looks really feeble.

Inspector_666 posted:

I feel like the projections are still way too high on Panda and Hanley, specifically Hanley. And I don't think the Jays are gonna fall off that hard.

I figure the Yankees come in a few games above the projection, since :bullpen: and the usual magic that lets us do that. WC1 would be great though, gently caress one-game play-ins.

People forget Hanley was having a killer start until he slammed his shoulder into the wall playing a position he had no business being at.

Err I'm sorry, I mean MLB Network's #1 Left Fielder!

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:32

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# ? May 25, 2024 13:54

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

Rand alPaul posted:

People forget Hanley was having a killer start until he slammed his shoulder into the wall playing a position he had no business being at.

Err I'm sorry, I mean MLB Network's #1 Left Fielder!

Where are the going to play him where he does have business being, though? Hanley looked totally lost in the OF, are they gonna try him at 1B? This is Ortiz' farewell tour year, so there's no way he loses any significant amount of DH time.

EDIT: I don't think Panda and Hanley will be as dreadful in 2016 as they were in 2015, but the projections are actually calling for the entire Sox offense except them to actually do worse, so I don't think they're going to be worth that many wins this year, either.

Inspector_666 fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Feb 3, 2016

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:55

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