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RumbleFish
Dec 20, 2007

Elotana posted:

I kinda want to see the Texans take a 7th/UDFA flier on Connor Shaw too

That would be so awesome if Shaw got a shot in the NFL. Prior to this season, he was preparing to join the military and go into coaching afterward, but scouts started actually coming around to ask about him so who knows.

If the Texans start collecting Gamecocks, they might have to become my second team.

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bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx

RumbleFish posted:

That would be so awesome if Shaw got a shot in the NFL. Prior to this season, he was preparing to join the military and go into coaching afterward, but scouts started actually coming around to ask about him so who knows.

If the Texans start collecting Gamecocks, they might have to become my second team.

What if we grab Clowney and Shaw, but also Tajh Boyd? That'd be 3 Gamecocks to 3 Tigers, counting Ricky Sapp, Hopkins, and Swearinger. :ohdear:

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
What is it with you and Boyd anyway?

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx

Intruder posted:

What is it with you and Boyd anyway?

I-I thought his performance against LSU in the Peach Bowl was kinda impressive. :blush: And I was rooting for LSU, too.

TheChirurgeon
Aug 7, 2002

Remember how good you are
Taco Defender

bhsman posted:

Maybe you should step away from the QB insanity-ledge, Mr. "I bought a Keenum avatar at the drop of a hat"

Keenum owns. You're dead to me bhsman

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010

Grozz Nuy posted:

This line of discussion creates a fun game!

Regular season stats, 2009-2013:

Player A: 7.0 YPA, 6.6 AYPA, 4.5 TD%, 2.9 INT%, 84.2 passer rating
Player B: 7.7 YPA, 7.5 AYPA, 4.3 TD%, 2.4 INT%, 92.2 passer rating

Player A: Matthew Stafford
Player B: Matt Schaub

I've banged this drum a lot before, but Stafford is dramatically overrated as a player because he racks up pretty counting stats from throwing the ball a billion times. In 2012, what is usually considered his worst year to date, he broke Drew Bledsoe's record for pass attempts in a season.

Not to mention that the thought experiment taking a Stafford-level talent at QB first overall (which we have no way of knowing if Bridgewater would be considered, yet) over Clowney presumes a Stafford-level outcome, which is fallacious to say the least.

Those stats are in desperate need of context. Stafford was a rookie in 2009 and only played 10 games. He only played 3 in 2010. Using either of those years is unfair.

RumbleFish
Dec 20, 2007

bhsman posted:

What if we grab Clowney and Shaw, but also Tajh Boyd? That'd be 3 Gamecocks to 3 Tigers, counting Ricky Sapp, Hopkins, and Swearinger. :ohdear:

Boyd is my favorite Clemson quarterback ever, so sure.

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

If anyone is interested in seeing Garoppolo play, he has a playoff game that you can get on ESPN3/WatchESPN at 2pm EST.

Daric
Dec 23, 2007

Shawn:
Do you really want to know my process?

Lassiter:
Absolutely.

Shawn:
Well it starts with a holla! and ends with a Creamsicle.
I've watched Bridgewater all season since I go to UH and we play them. He's decent, but he's not 1st overall pick good. He barely beat a UH defense composed of freshmen and sophomores. That's not Andrew Luck levels of good.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

Daric posted:

I've watched Bridgewater all season since I go to UH and we play them. He's decent, but he's not 1st overall pick good. He barely beat a UH defense composed of freshmen and sophomores. That's not Andrew Luck levels of good.

The vast majority of first overall picks weren't Andrew Luck levels of good though. As long as he's good enough to be thought of as the best QB in this year's draft he's got a pretty solid shot of going first I'd think since there are a ton of QB needy teams up top. Unless everyone's wrong and this class isn't thought of as any better than last year's and no one goes in the first I guess.

vv--Yeah Clowney is why I said good shot instead of almost a sure thing to go first, anyone can fall in love with that guy. Aside from maybe Jacksonville.

Grittybeard fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Dec 6, 2013

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx

Grittybeard posted:

The vast majority of first overall picks weren't Andrew Luck levels of good though. As long as he's good enough to be thought of as the best QB in this year's draft he's got a pretty solid shot of going first I'd think since there are a ton of QB needy teams up top. Unless everyone's wrong and this class isn't thought of as any better than last year's and no one goes in the first I guess.

It's not so much that Bridgewater isn't as good as Luck, it's that Clowney is also available.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

bhsman posted:

It's not so much that Bridgewater isn't as good as Luck, it's that Clowney is also available.

It is though, because Manziel has a better QB rating than Bridgewater despite funslinging against the SEC while Bridgewater I don't even think has played a ranked opponent. And it's not because he's carrying the team. He has less attempts than most other top QB's. I don't know why anyone would take him over Clowney based on what we've seen at this point, unless he had a loving cannon for an arm.

RumbleFish
Dec 20, 2007

Volkerball posted:

It is though, because Manziel has a better QB rating than Bridgewater despite funslinging against the SEC while Bridgewater I don't even think has played a ranked opponent.

He played against Blake Bortles/UCF (and lost).

JesustheDarkLord
May 22, 2006

#VolsDeep
Lipstick Apathy
In pretty good LT news, Tiny Richardson is false-starting into the draft.

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo

Daric posted:

I've watched Bridgewater all season since I go to UH and we play them. He's decent, but he's not 1st overall pick good. He barely beat a UH defense composed of freshmen and sophomores. That's not Andrew Luck levels of good.

Nobody every compared him to Luck that I'm aware of. Luck was touted as the next elite of the elite QBs, the new Manning, a generational talent.

Bridgewater has always been classified in that next tier down, with the RG3s of the world.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

The Kwame Harris rule. There always must be one in the NFL at any given time.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Henchman of Santa posted:

Those stats are in desperate need of context. Stafford was a rookie in 2009 and only played 10 games. He only played 3 in 2010. Using either of those years is unfair.
Also Stafford has posted YPAs of 7.6 and 7.7 in seasons where he averaged more than 40 attempts per game, which are both very very good for such a high volume of passing. If you look at the YPAs of the top 10 QBs in attempts, the rest are not so fortunate. It's Peyton, Stafford, Brees, and then a huge drop.

Also, Volkerball, qb rating is not important when scouting quarterbacks. Geno Smith had the 5th best QB rating in the country. Greg McElroy had the 4th best.

Tim Tebow had the #1 QB rating. It doesn't matter.

The 7th Guest fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Dec 6, 2013

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx

RumbleFish posted:

He played against Blake Bortles/UCF (and lost).

In fairness, that was by a touchdown or less and both teams scored 30+ points.

Pimpcasso
Mar 13, 2002

VOLS BITCH
:byewhore:

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Quest For Glory II posted:

Also Stafford has posted YPAs of 7.6 and 7.7 in seasons where he averaged more than 40 attempts per game, which are both very very good for such a high volume of passing. If you look at the YPAs of the top 10 QBs in attempts, the rest are not so fortunate. It's Peyton, Stafford, Brees, and then a huge drop.

Also, Volkerball, qb rating is not important when scouting quarterbacks. Geno Smith had the 5th best QB rating in the country. Greg McElroy had the 4th best.

Tim Tebow had the #1 QB rating. It doesn't matter.

I think it does when you're comparing top prospects to top prospects. Tebow and McElroy obviously weren't. Like any other stat, you have to take into context what you can actually learn from it though. It's just a rough way of comparing one QB's completion percentage, interceptions, and TD's to another one. If Bridgewater's completion percentage was notably higher than the rest of the competition, he'd have a higher rating, but he hasn't stepped away from the pack in that regard despite playing weaker competition. And Geno isn't a fair comparison for anyone because he wasn't consistent throughout his last year. He was terrible mixed with a better than RGIII streak of several games. Still ended with a higher completion percentage than Bridgewater is sitting at right now though.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Dec 7, 2013

warheadr
Jul 6, 2005

bhsman posted:

What if we grab Clowney and Shaw, but also Tajh Boyd? That'd be 3 Gamecocks to 3 Tigers, counting Ricky Sapp, Hopkins, and Swearinger. :ohdear:

You already got 2 Gamecocks: Swearinger and J Joseph. Plus the owner is an alum. And you used to have Dunta Robinson and Fred Bennett (sorry about those two). So gently caress it, take Clowney and Shaw and just let me go all-in with Houston as my second team.

Seriously, though, don't take Clowney. I so so badly want him with Atlanta.

warheadr fucked around with this message at 00:50 on Dec 7, 2013

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Azhais posted:

Bridgewater has always been classified in that next tier down, with the RG3s of the world.

He's definitely not on that level either, at least in my opinion. Right now I'd value him something like Bradford or Ryan.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

I just don't think you can look at the numbers and say "see? Bigger, ergo, better." The stats are really not important so much as studying the film and looking at the mechanics, at the ball placement, the touch on the ball, the ability to read different coverages. How's the footwork, do they slide away from pressure, are they throwing off balance, what are their tendencies and can they be corrected.

And I hate to say it but there's a physical aspect to it too. Manziel is not durable. And he's not durable enough for a quarterback that is constantly trying to engineer bullshit on the field. I don't trust Manziel as a pocket passer in the NFL because his trigger finger to abort the play and improvise is too drat itchy, and every game I've seen him in he's taken too many hits and gotten banged up. The dude leaves clean pockets.

The 7th Guest fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Dec 7, 2013

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Quest For Glory II posted:

I just don't think you can look at the numbers and say "see? Bigger, ergo, better." The stats are really not important so much as studying the film and looking at the mechanics, at the ball placement, the touch on the ball, the ability to read different coverages. How's the footwork, do they slide away from pressure, are they throwing off balance, what are their tendencies and can they be corrected.

That stuff is all important, but based on statistics, Russell Wilson would have went in the 1st. His tools and measurables sent him back into the 3rd. Obviously that's not always the case and there's no completely accurate way to look at and determine how a rookie QB is going to play in the NFL, but production is something to take into account. Especially when it comes to guys in the lower tiers being compared to players in the big competitive conferences.

Gendo
Feb 25, 2001

His place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.

Volkerball posted:

That stuff is all important, but based on statistics, Russell Wilson would have went in the 1st. His tools and measurables sent him back into the 3rd. Obviously that's not always the case and there's no completely accurate way to look at and determine how a rookie QB is going to play in the NFL, but production is something to take into account. Especially when it comes to guys in the lower tiers being compared to players in the big competitive conferences.
code:
Career Leaders Passing Yards

1.	Case Keenum*	19217	2007	2011	Houston
2.	Timmy Chang*	17072	2000	2004	Hawaii
3.	Landry Jones*	16646	2009	2012	Oklahoma
4.	Graham Harrell*	15793	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5.	Ty Detmer	15031	1988	1991	Brigham Young
6.	Kellen Moore*	14667	2008	2011	Boise State
7.	Colt Brennan*	14193	2005	2007	Hawaii
8.	Philip Rivers*	13484	2000	2003	North Carolina State
9.	Colt McCoy*	13253	2006	2009	Texas
10.	Kevin Kolb*	12964	2003	2006	Houston
11.	Dan Lefevour*	12905	2006	2009	Central Michigan
12.	Tim Rattay	12746	1997	1999	Louisiana Tech
13.	Ryan Lindley*	12690	2008	2011	San Diego State
14.	Luke McCown	12666	2000	2003	Louisiana Tech
15.	Chris Redman	12541	1996	1999	Louisville
16.	Chase Daniel*	12515	2005	2008	Missouri
17.	Trevor Vittatoe*12439	2007	2010	Texas-El Paso
18.	Kliff Kingsbury*12423	1999	2002	Texas Tech
19.	Matt Barkley*	12327	2009	2012	Southern California
20.	Zac Dysert*	12013	2009	2012	Miami (OH)
21.	Byron Leftwich*	11903	1998	2002	Marshall
22.	Chase Holbrook	11846	2006	2008	New Mexico State
23.	Brady Quinn*	11762	2003	2006	Notre Dame
24.	Russell Wilson*	11720	2008	2011	Wisconsin
25.	Carson Palmer*	11668	1998	2002	Southern California

Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002
See? He would have gone 24th overall. Thank you, Gendo.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Volkerball posted:

That stuff is all important, but based on statistics, Russell Wilson would have went in the 1st. His tools and measurables sent him back into the 3rd. Obviously that's not always the case and there's no completely accurate way to look at and determine how a rookie QB is going to play in the NFL, but production is something to take into account. Especially when it comes to guys in the lower tiers being compared to players in the big competitive conferences.
I don't think production is important but yes I do think that Manziel will be docked for being small and dinged up constantly. Not every team wants a freelancing AH DO WHAT AH WANT signal caller either. It doesn't mean that Manziel is a lock to not be taken on the first day, but he won't be the #1 pick unless he flat out destroys all post-season workouts and interviews.

I don't think playing in the AAC will be a significant concern for scouts with Bridgewater. I think there's enough good tape and bad tape to look at to make a good determination on him, and the combine and private workouts will take care of the remaining concerns. Similarly there's a chance Carr is drafted before Manziel and his level of competition is at an even lower level.

The 7th Guest fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Dec 7, 2013

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Gendo posted:

Career Leaders Passing Yards

Career yards doesn't count because all the best QB's leave early, and scrubs like LeFevour put up monster stats over a career and go undrafted because you have to use the words "college football" really loosely when you talk about whatever they gently caress it is they play. I just said it's a tool anyways, not the end all be all. It's totally fair to look at Boyd and McCarron's statlines when comparing them as prospects, for example.

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx
Manziel's only injury of note was his shoulder, and he was injured the same way Aaron Rodgers got injured against the Bears: it was driven into the ground. I don't know if that makes him particulary injury-prone.

Gendo
Feb 25, 2001

His place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.

Volkerball posted:

Career yards doesn't count because all the best QB's leave early, and scrubs like LeFevour put up monster stats over a career and go undrafted because you have to use the words "college football" really loosely when you talk about whatever they gently caress it is they play. I just said it's a tool anyways, not the end all be all. It's totally fair to look at Boyd and McCarron's statlines when comparing them as prospects, for example.
Individual seasons don't look too hot either.

Production should be part of the equation, but determining how any individual QB will project tilts way more towards scouting than stats. There's just too much variation in college in terms of quality of opponents, offensive systems, personnel and so on to divine too much from a straight up stat comparison.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Gendo posted:

Individual seasons don't look too hot either.

Actually I ctrl-F'd Alex Smith and he's not there. Checkmate. :colbert:

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
Keenum 3 times in the top 11 aw yeah

Emanuel Collective
Jan 16, 2008

by Smythe

Volkerball posted:

LeFevour put up monster stats over a career and go undrafted

The Bears drafted LeFevour in the sixth round. He was horrific and cut in camp.

TheBizzness
Oct 5, 2004

Reign on me.
I've watched a handful of UCF games and I really like Bortles. Strong arm, good pocket awareness and mobility. When he does go on the move he keeps his eyes down the field and is always looking for the big play.

I wouldn't mind if the Dolphins took him (Assuming he leaves) in any round but the first.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Gendo posted:

code:
Career Leaders Passing Yards

1.	Case Keenum*	19217	2007	2011	Houston
2.	Timmy Chang*	17072	2000	2004	Hawaii
3.	Landry Jones*	16646	2009	2012	Oklahoma
4.	Graham Harrell*	15793	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5.	Ty Detmer	15031	1988	1991	Brigham Young
6.	Kellen Moore*	14667	2008	2011	Boise State
7.	Colt Brennan*	14193	2005	2007	Hawaii
8.	Philip Rivers*	13484	2000	2003	North Carolina State
9.	Colt McCoy*	13253	2006	2009	Texas
10.	Kevin Kolb*	12964	2003	2006	Houston
11.	Dan Lefevour*	12905	2006	2009	Central Michigan
12.	Tim Rattay	12746	1997	1999	Louisiana Tech
13.	Ryan Lindley*	12690	2008	2011	San Diego State
14.	Luke McCown	12666	2000	2003	Louisiana Tech
15.	Chris Redman	12541	1996	1999	Louisville
16.	Chase Daniel*	12515	2005	2008	Missouri
17.	Trevor Vittatoe*12439	2007	2010	Texas-El Paso
18.	Kliff Kingsbury*12423	1999	2002	Texas Tech
19.	Matt Barkley*	12327	2009	2012	Southern California
20.	Zac Dysert*	12013	2009	2012	Miami (OH)
21.	Byron Leftwich*	11903	1998	2002	Marshall
22.	Chase Holbrook	11846	2006	2008	New Mexico State
23.	Brady Quinn*	11762	2003	2006	Notre Dame
24.	Russell Wilson*	11720	2008	2011	Wisconsin
25.	Carson Palmer*	11668	1998	2002	Southern California

Philip Rivers owns

Parmesan Basil
Nov 12, 2008

TIME IS THE FIRE IN WHICH WE BURN THE GAME CLOCK
Lots of quality QB names on that list

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib
Why do they all have asterisks?

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

Brannock posted:

Why do they all have asterisks?

I was going to guess active players but Kingsbury is pretty famously, or at least prettily, not playing anymore.

e: Well I apparently skipped Timmy Chang and should have gotten nowhere near that far down the list

Zypher
Sep 3, 2009

Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!
I think asterisk indicates players in the 13 games a season era

Edit: Nope not that either. Stats include a bowl game?

Zypher fucked around with this message at 04:22 on Dec 7, 2013

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TheChirurgeon
Aug 7, 2002

Remember how good you are
Taco Defender

Intruder posted:

Keenum 3 times in the top 11 aw yeah

Is it too early to start talking about future superstars John O'Korn and Deonte Greenberry?

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