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Alchenar posted:Worst-case? They demand a de-militarised zone in Syria along the Turkish border. They can demand it, but nobody will help them create it. I doubt they will invade on their own over this.
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Oct 3, 2012 19:23
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John Dough posted:They can demand it, but nobody will help them create it. I doubt they will invade on their own over this. No reason they can't do it themselves. Especially if they limit themselves to creating a buffer border zone and a bit of Kurd-hunting. Assad's response would basically depend upon how much stress the Syrian army is under. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Oct 3, 2012 |
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Oct 3, 2012 19:31
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Alchenar posted:No reason they can't do it themselves. Especially if they limit themselves to creating a buffer border zone and a bit of Kurd-hunting. Isn't the Turkey/Syria border also part of the region where Assad only has tenuous control?
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Oct 3, 2012 19:41
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Let's not forget NATO, the Russian Missile test, and Russia's warnings for them to stay out of Syria.
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Oct 3, 2012 19:42
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Munin posted:Isn't the Turkey/Syria border also part of the region where Assad only has tenuous control? A good part of the border on the west side is effectively under opposition control, to the east it's Kurdish areas, so a lack of border security there is more a problem for Turkey than it is Syria.
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Oct 3, 2012 19:49
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quote:Turkey says it has struck targets in Syria in response to mortar strike across border, prime minister's office statement says - @Reuters
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Oct 3, 2012 20:08
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Turkey is also convening a urgent meeting of NATO members.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:10
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Also from Reuters, NATO is convening an urgent meeting, presumably soon
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Oct 3, 2012 20:11
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It sounds like the Turks just retaliated with counter-battery fire, so for now, the response seems very limited. As far as I know, that's SOP for responding to artillery fire.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:16
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If this blows out into a full mutual defense NATO thing then this could have all kinds of fallout. It would also most likely make a blip on the US Presidential race.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:19
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From a Turkish journalistquote:Sources on the ground say Turkey is now deploying huge number of tanks, artillery and missile batteries to the Syria border. And via @THE_47th quote:. @JKhashoggi is saying that the Turkish Gov will seek approval from the Parliament tomorrow to execute "military operations" inside Syria.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:26
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NATO is meeting within the hour in Brussels as per Al Jazeera
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Oct 3, 2012 20:30
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Let's hope the troops massive business is just rumour mongering. Or things are going to get a lot more messy.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:38
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Reuters live updatesquote:NATO ambassadors to meet under NATO Article 4, for consultations when a member state feels territorial integrity under threat - NATO official
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Oct 3, 2012 20:40
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 Well this is a great time to be writing a policy report about Syria. It could be obsolete within a couple of days.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:40
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Turkey has a good enough military they could do it on their own, I doubt they need or even want help. They probably just want official approval to get things in a row.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:43
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IMO this has a high likelihood of snowballing into at least a limited border conflict, with Turkey creating buffer zones around her border towns. It has been really tense for months, but unlike in the jet incident, this is very clearly a Syrian offense. A mother and her three children are among the casualties, that's not going to go too well with the public either. I can't wait to hear the government excuse. Of course there will be false flag speculation too. I dunno if Turkey goes on full offense yet, though. I think it depends on if they think they can finish the job quickly and with no risk of Assad's vengeance attacks, including chemical weapons. If there is an invasion to topple Assad I just hope that the people doing it have studied the aftermath of OIF...
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Oct 3, 2012 20:44
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I'm reminded of this at the moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
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Oct 3, 2012 20:51
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Um are we having a war? Can we have a war that quick after they've got the American guy? edit: i forgot about Dônnnald Bethl'hem i love you chris morris EvanTH fucked around with this message at 20:57 on Oct 3, 2012 |
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Oct 3, 2012 20:53
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The Asian Oprah posted:Um are we having a war? Can we have a war that quick after they've got the American guy? This is how regional conflicts tend to start, yeah. I doubt it'll get worse though, Turkey has no spine and the UN has no will to do anything about it.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:55
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:This is how regional conflicts tend to start, yeah. I doubt it'll get worse though, Turkey has no spine and the UN has no will to do anything about it. Turkey does have a spine and they have a very good military. They certainly don't need any help.
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Oct 3, 2012 20:57
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yb3fOs3NlM This is going be extremely interesting, and I hope to god it doesn't escalate.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:00
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SilentD posted:Turkey does have a spine and they have a very good military. They certainly don't need any help. It's not quite so simple. Damascus is a long distance away from Turkey making it logistically difficult and expensive to reach (minimum objective to topple Assad) and Turkish military has no experience of fighting against a regular army.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:01
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:This is how regional conflicts tend to start, yeah. I doubt it'll get worse though, Turkey has no spine and the UN has no will to do anything about it. You'll lose more than your money betting against the Turks when blood's been spilled and they feel like honor's on the line.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:02
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I imagine we'll back Turkey to the hilt unless they go in a completely egregious direction with their response. Obama's not going to try to weasel out of NATO treaty obligations. The Turkish military has over 600,000 people in the active armed forces and a military budget of almost $19 billion. I doubt they'll try to wipe Syria off the map but they don't need us to shoot poo poo for them.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:02
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"Oh Man! You're not gonna take THAT are you Turkey?!" "Wh-what? No... No! I certainly will not! I... I'll go to war! You guys got my back right?! Let's do this!" "Oh... uh, sure we do. You go on ahead, we'll be right behind you!" "GUYS? I CAN'T HEAR YOU OVER ALL THIS SHOOTING BUT IF YOU ARE COMING WITH REINFORCEMENTS THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO SHOW UP" "Well hang on a moment here, let's not be rash- we gotta pick something to wear first! Can't have a proper party dressed in these rags. How's that F-35 coming along uncle Sam? Sam? Hello?" "Yeah yeah wait just a minute and I'll be- Breaking news! Mitt Romney has swallowed his own tongue!- Oh sorry guys were you saying something?" "Oh bugger"
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Oct 3, 2012 21:03
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There's pretty much no question that the Turkish military would have no problem steamrolling what remains of the Syrian military. But let's hope that it doesn't come to that.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:07
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Wouldn't Turkey running over the Syrian army hasten the defeat of Assad?
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Oct 3, 2012 21:08
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mcvey posted:Wouldn't Turkey running over the Syrian army hasten the defeat of Assad? A long, bloody occupation isn't in anyone's interest.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:10
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Zeroisanumber posted:A long, bloody occupation isn't in anyone's interest. But this isn't a situation that would really call for a long, bloody occupation. Last I knew, Manaf Tlass was getting primed up to take the job, and I guess the FSA supported that. Once Assad is dead and the regime loses control, it could be unstable for a while, but I don't know if it would be full-scale sectarian warfare.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:14
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Zeroisanumber posted:A long, bloody occupation isn't in anyone's interest. I really doubt they'd even attempt it. That doesn't rule out all forms of military action, though. Hell, the first time we invaded Iraq we didn't occupy the place at all, and that was still an immense military operation. EDIT: Put another way, invasions don't end in quagmires unless you're a dumbshit about it generally.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:14
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The NATO meeting has started.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:15
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Can anyone give me a quick explanation as to why Syria would attack Turkey? Especially when it's currently busy with the FSA and the like.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:15
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Zeroisanumber posted:A long, bloody occupation isn't in anyone's interest. I doubt this would happen. I'm not up to date on this thread but weren't people hoping for another country to intervene in Syria?
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Oct 3, 2012 21:16
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The Ape of Naples posted:Can anyone give me a quick explanation as to why Syria would attack Turkey? Especially when it's currently busy with the FSA and the like. No clear reason has been given yet, but they could have been trying to hit opposition members who were moving back and forth across the border, but it's a pretty huge gently caress up hitting civilian homes.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:17
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I imagine the most likely reason is that the chain of command has become increasingly frazzled and some dumbshits at the border got carried away. The other option is that it was deliberately executed in order to force Turkey's hand and escalate the conflict. Perhaps Assad wants to bring Russia in.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:18
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Are there any groupings in Syria that would welcome a Turkish invasion? From what I can discern (mostly from this thread) the majority of the FSA forces seem unnatural bedfellows for the Turks. I don't think the FSA are organised enough to realpolitik this.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:18
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Nenonen posted:It's not quite so simple. Damascus is a long distance away from Turkey making it logistically difficult and expensive to reach (minimum objective to topple Assad) and Turkish military has no experience of fighting against a regular army. Uh no, Turkey would have no problems curb stomping the Syrian military in the situation it's in now. Even if Syria wasn't in chaos Turkey has one of the largest, most modern, best equipped military's in the region. They also can get a bit honor crazy. You don't want to mess with the Turks, they are one of the few military powers in that region that wouldn't be all that afraid of Israel if it came to an actual conflict.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:19
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OK, so I haven't been following the Syria situation very closely, the OP has some general backround. But nothing about what seems to be coming to a head now. Is there a good source or timeline of events? Seems like its about to hit the fan and I'd like to get up to speed.
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Oct 3, 2012 21:19
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Bombadilillo posted:OK, so I haven't been following the Syria situation very closely, the OP has some general backround. But nothing about what seems to be coming to a head now. Nothing I can think of, sure there will be one soon though. One complicating factor is the Kurdish situation, which is a sort of seperate issue from the Turkey-Syrian government situation. [edit] Sorry, misread that, thought you said you HAD been following it. I'll dig around, see what I come up with. Problem is, Syria is complicated as gently caress, especially compared to Libya. [edit 2] The BBC Timeline is worth checking out (obviously the end bit), and Wikipedia has much more detailed timelines. But as I said, Syria is very complex, even describing the make up of the opposition in any detail is a fairly mammoth task. The ISW has put out a number of very detailed reports on Syria if you have a lot of spare time. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Oct 3, 2012 |
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Oct 3, 2012 21:21
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