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EC10 posted:Nachos brought up the push-turn idea earlier in IRC, and while it does make playing the hand easier (it takes any more tough decision making out of my hands); it also doesn't really serve any other purpose. JC is never folding a better hand (overpair, a 6) to my push. In hand 2 I have no doubt JC would call with worse to your turn push.
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Feb 20, 2007 05:42
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EC10 posted:Nachos brought up the push-turn idea earlier in IRC, and while it does make playing the hand easier (it takes any more tough decision making out of my hands); it also doesn't really serve any other purpose. JC is never folding a better hand (overpair, a 6) to my push. I thought some more about this very thing, and i agree that folding better hands is not the reason to push. If someone has an OESFD they are still getting odds to call (not knowing that their flush outs are dead), and you are probably extracting value from some other worse hands too. I reconsidered calling the turn. If you think JC is really full of poo poo on the turn and will fire a PSB on the river with a bluff then calling with the intent of picking off a river bluff on a safe card might have lots of value. Of course you'll have to dodge a non-spade 3,5,8 or T. Even the spades might be dead for you. I still have the feeling that you would be value bet to death by one of the other two players on the river, and it will be too hard to tell when you're ahead to profit there.
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Feb 20, 2007 07:01
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EC10 posted:Results on hand 1 vs JC at NL 2K: He had 54o, for the flopped gutty and turned double gutter that got there on the river. I folded river but he told me that's what he had later. bam I knew he flopped a gutshot!!!!!!
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Feb 20, 2007 13:20
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Second hand is extremely difficult EC10, just because JC's read on the BB is presumably the same as your read - that he will stack off quite light and that bluffing is pretty useless against him. This, combined with the fact that you're behind him and are calling on a 667ss board with anything from a straight draw, flush draw or a pair like 99 (for pot control again) makes his bluffing frequency much smaller than normal I think. You could even be slowplaying trips! I mean, look at JC's position. A big blind that likes to call, an opponent behind him that could have anything from a draw (which JC will need to fire a third barrel against or make a big river call on a blank) to two pair, to trips. An outright bluff or even a semibluff that bloats the pot seems asinine!! WTF does this mean? Well, JC is good enough to realize that the Q is a relative blank, so he could be firing out again with anything between 88-JJ to "protect his hand". So you could call/push. He could be doing the same thing with QQ-AA, so you could call again hoping to spike a flush, or fold (if you put him on this). OR he could have 88-JJ and be looking to CALL a push, putting you on a big combo draw and reasoning that you can't have a Q, so you could semi-value-push (lol wat) here again. I am reaaaally leaning away from him having 88-JJ as again, either you or the BB can have 6x here and be slowplaying, and I think he'd exercise a little more pot control instead of just firing another pot bet in the dark when an overcard comes. I am leaning towards him having QQ-AA, or a monster like 6x or a boat, and him betting big in the hopes that either you or the big blind tags along with a flush/straight draw so he can push all in on any river (which one of you will call if the flush/straight hits). I think JC leading out this much on the turn against a calling station like the big blind is a giveaway that he has a big hand (anything that he will not fold if pushed over) and that he doesn't much care for pot control now. Your flush outs could easily be dead, and if a big fat 2o rolls on the river, you could make a huge bad call with your Queens up. I vote fold now despite hitting top pair. Time to laffo myself to oblivion when JC turns up 22 here.
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Feb 20, 2007 13:37
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If I somehow called the turn with the Q9s on the 776Q board (which I would actually do on the spot at the table because I really would not have gone through the thought process/logic above ^^^^^^^) I am folding every single river you mentioned because I think his 3-barrel frequency with TRUE air is <10% at that point. edit: in other words, whatever river card comes I think he'd check 88-JJ like 100% of the time (you're only calling with a flush or a 6 if he bets, and you bet your missed draw which he can snap off), AA-KK most of the time (same reason, although once in a while he might try to do a very thin v-bet on a blank river), and would bet or c/r with a monster (full house, but would probably check with 6x if river comes a spade). I.e. if he bets a third time you're toast. God I write a lot but this hand is pretty loving interesting. Psyduck fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Feb 20, 2007 |
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Feb 20, 2007 13:42
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One last comment I swear: Alex, you "accidentally" made the right play in hand one against JC's 54o. I'm reasonably certain that JC is betting $689 whatever the river is.
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Feb 20, 2007 14:25
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Psyduck posted:One last comment I swear: Alex, you "accidentally" made the right play in hand one against JC's 54o. I'm reasonably certain that JC is betting $689 whatever the river is. I also agree with your last few points about the frequency of his bluffing and especially the river if he fires again. Now that we've had time to analyze the hand and think about it I'd probably play it different, but in the moment I called the turn because "OMG TOP PAIR TO GO WITH MY FD!" Crackstar is probably right that whatever I do it's going to be hard to play this turn/river profitably. Definitely some interesting discussion produced from these hands, but I should note that a lot of you are completely off on JC's range and general assumptions about his play (i.e. that he 3bets AQ/AK most of the time in hand 1). I called the turn in this hand, the BB folded, and JC checked the 7 river. JC had J  T
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Feb 20, 2007 14:41
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p0isonxfree posted:Raising preflop here sucks for the exact reason you gave. You are OOP, they likely aren't folding here enough to make it worth your while. Check and see a flop. I would think raising here would better define a hand range for your opponents? Sure you are out of position, but wouldn't it actually be -EV to check here and take a flop? Most of the players I would play against online ($20-25SNG/100max NLHE) would raise AQ/AK from any position, so I wouldn't be in fear of that. But a lot of players would limp any 2 face cards. I'm sure you're right but I wouldn't mind a better explanation if someone can. In the hand example, the hero flops 2 pair with a AJK board, and the small blind check/raises all in. I just don't see how its a turbo call here with no read.
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Feb 20, 2007 14:51
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Live game in Dallas 1-2 NL. Reads: Ep Is a twat who likes to play any two because any two can win. Willing to commit alot on a draw and often makes huges bluffs at questionable times. CO is a douche who's already had to rebuy due to tptk not being the nuts. Makes foolish plays based on the strength of his hand and cares not much what his opponent has. I've got 6-8s clubs in MP and there's a 4 dollar straddle on. I limp the pot after one limper in front of me followed by another limp behind me and the CO min raises to 8. The straddle folds and EP who's a loose player calls and I call as well. The rock in LP folds (i never saw this guy table anything except a boat or huge over pairs, KK 3 times). Flop comes 2-5-9 with the 5 and the 9 being clubs. EP checks, I check, and CO shoves $106 into the pot. I've seen this guy make this exact play with over pairs and I don't really think he minraises in the CO with A-9 or any pocket pair lower than j's or possibly 10's. He's played other large pocket pairs in ways such as this where he only minraises or limps then reraises huge preflop. He's definetly the kind of guy I would peg as someone who thinks over pairs are the nuts. I don't feel he's the kind of player to shove a FD like that. After a long deliberation I lay it down. Mostly because I know this guy is so afwul that I can pick him off on something better than a coin flip and I'm not real keen on calling off $106 dollars in something I honestly only have 8 dollars in. If I had the OESFD I would have put it in (waskika be damned). I think if I bet that flop with 25ish I would have called off to his reraise if he made that move. I also feel that if he bets anything around 1/3 of his stack I'm comming over the top. Comments? results oriented people Jc on the turn; twat shows QQ no club Scrubed fucked around with this message at 21:48 on Feb 20, 2007 |
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Feb 20, 2007 20:00
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You're just barely getting the right price. It comes down to whether or not you want to GAMBOOOOL (and get a pretty sweet table image) edit: place = price ManicJason fucked around with this message at 02:08 on Feb 21, 2007 |
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Feb 20, 2007 21:38
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What was EP's action?
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Feb 20, 2007 21:42
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p0isonxfree posted:What was EP's action? EP:  Instafolds.
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Feb 20, 2007 21:46
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ManicJason posted:You're just barely getting the right place. It comes down to whether or not you want to GAMBOOOOL (and get a pretty sweet table image) The earlier in your session, the better a call is, the less players know you, the better a call is, and the deeper the worse players are at the table, the better a call is. If none of these really apply, a fold is fine. Don't run it twice.
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Feb 20, 2007 23:24
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I won't comment on hand 1 publicly but PF in hand 2 is really bad. It's not even calling with relative trash; it's the shortstack behind you that's the problem. It's a very basic mistake that costs people way more money on Cake than anywhere else, because shortstacks are so much more common. PF and turn kinda go together though...if the shortie doesn't exist and you call, you're calling exactly because he's so aggro that you are fine calling off lots of chips with top pair there (which happens to be true against JC in that spot :P) also what are you doing trying to donk each other off pots when people stack off 200 BB with one pair? :P
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Feb 21, 2007 01:27
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Adar posted:also what are you doing trying to donk each other off pots when people stack off 200 BB with one pair? :P Yeah haven't you guys heard of set mining, jeez.
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Feb 21, 2007 02:25
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Adar posted:I won't comment on hand 1 publicly but PF in hand 2 is really bad. It's not even calling with relative trash; it's the shortstack behind you that's the problem. It's a very basic mistake that costs people way more money on Cake than anywhere else, because shortstacks are so much more common. you're such a nit. Q9s is a fine hand  and although id rather not play pots with jc it's not as if the very thought of it suddenly turns me into captain nittypants.
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Feb 21, 2007 03:43
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The reason I brought up the turn push is because calling on this turn, will lead to a river that is very tough to play correctly given jc's hand ranges (in my opinion). That is what immediately came to my mind so instead of worrying about a river decision I was thinking of alternate ways to play this one that may make my life easier. Is it optimal? Probably not. But what's better, semibluffing with outs or making an extremely tough river decision? Well, you either pick up the ~55 bb pot right there a certain percentage of the time, or you nail your flush/hit a Q 20% of the time and win the whole pot. (55)(x) + (-107)(y) + (163.6)(z) = EV x is the % JC has to fold so you win 55 bbs. y is the % JC calls and wins so you lose -107 bbs (on your ~$2140 push) z is the % JC calls and loses so you win 163.6 bb (winning the $1140 currently in the pot and the extra $2140ish that you push) So what we are trying to figure out is, what combination(s) of x,y,z will lead to this being +ev? since x is the percentage JC folds and y+z is the percentage JC calls, x+y+z = 100% Therefore, y+z = 100-x. Also, when JC calls we assume he has a better hand and he wins 80% of the time. So.. y = (1-x)(.8) and z = (1-x)(.2) Rewriting this equation to figure out the breakeven percentage we get (55)(x) + (-107)(1-x)(.8) + (163.6)(1-x)(.2) = 0. Solve for x and you get about .49 which means JC has to fold 49% of the time (give or take a percent or two due to fuzzy math) to make this a breakeven push. Not really optimal is it? Unless you believe JC is betting a hand like this that can fold half the time. To further consider this hand, you must compare this value with a similar analysis of the river. You put him on some kind of range that he bets various river cards with, and decide if a call is good. I'm too lazy (and sick) right now to do anymore math, but just looking at a pure pot odds perspective the pot will be $1640 on the river and we assume he bets your whole stack. You have to call off $1633 to win $1640 or basically your hand has to be good half the time when he shoves it in. Is it? I guess that requires further analysis but given JC's range, he is either value betting a 6, 77, or overpair or pushing you off a hand (essentially bluffing with everything else). Also, you can call and hit your spade or queen(which should slow him down). For simplicity we will assume he puts in no more money if a 3rd spade hits. This is not considering the times he checks and you check behind, so you can add some more points for the call turn decision and praying you get a free showdown. But in this scenario his hand may actually be good at showdown (perhaps he bet a bigger queen?). I think more often than not you are good at showdown though. In the end the question seems to boil down to two things. 1) Can you make JC fold >49% of the time on the turn? 2a) If you call and he shoves river (assuming no spade), is your hand good half the time? 2b) Will there be enough times that JC checks the river (either giving up on a bluff or assuming he is beat when the 3rd spade or queen falls) so that you more than likely win the current pot? You have 10 outs so AT LEAST 20% of the time this will happen, possibly more. Just from eyeballing the river options real quick, you will win $1640 at least 20% of the time when he gives up the river. 80% of the time he puts you in. You will win $3273 (1640 current pot + 1633 his bet) if you think your hand is good at least half the time when he shoves in it. Go from there I guess... Ok I'm done rambling and hopefully my math isnt hosed up because oh god I am sick and dying over here
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Feb 21, 2007 04:03
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nachos posted:Math I like the turn analysis, but I have a couple of nit-picks. You analysed it as if it were a heads up pot, but the BB is still in there. There are also draws that are strong enough to call if they think that their outs are good. There's only one draw dead hand (66), and queens are good against 76 and 77. Including the BB in your EV calculations makes them much more of a pain in the rear end though, so I don't really fault you for that. All things considered I think you will also be better than 20% here when called because there are more hands that you are beating that will call, which would make the required fold % lower. Even so, I think you're folding the other two out > 50% here, so I still like the push. You made a typical error in your river analysis though. Calling a pot sized bet requires you to be good 1/3 of the time to break even, not 1/2 the time. Your call would make up 1/3 of the pot, so being good 1/3 of the time gets your money back. I looked through the hypothetical rivers that EC10 listed and I couldn't make myself call an all in on any of them, even with a made flush. Assuming a call, it's interesting to think of what to do on a blank river if BB checks and JC fires 1/3 pot. Would anyone call? I always tell myself I'll sit down and do the math for hands like this, but I rarely actually do, so I like it when other people do.
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Feb 21, 2007 04:48
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crackstar posted:
Oops, you are correct. Forgot about the pot that is already in there. edit: when I did the turn calculations, I think I made the same mistake (you actually win/lose ~230bb/~115bb if you push). Although I was looking at it from more of a decision starting at that point in time and not figuring in earlier bets into the pot. final edit: with the revised numbers the fold % goes from 49% to 45%, a slight dropoff but probably not too significant nachos fucked around with this message at 05:21 on Feb 21, 2007 |
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Feb 21, 2007 04:51
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http://www.pokerhand.org/?842988 Pre-flop is a misclick. Easystreet limp/calls and folds to flop bets constantly, and I hit call instead of bet pot. I have been pretty aggressive, C-betting multiple streets often, and I think that people are starting to look for spots to play back at me. Villain is 20/10 and fairly aggressive over a small sample size. The idea of calling the turn was that I didn't think a worse hand would call a push (thought I would only see sets if called), and calling looks weak/drawy so it encourages a bluff/value bet from worse hands on the river. I didn't raise the river for the same reason, I thought only better hands would call. In retrospect I think a king or smaller 2 pair may still call a river raise, but I still thought a set was fairly likely. Did I miss value/spew here?
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Feb 21, 2007 19:43
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Looks good, except I'd shove river for value barring some sort of extra nitty read on the opponent.
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Feb 21, 2007 20:28
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crackstar posted:http://www.pokerhand.org/?842988 Seems pretty standard, it does seem pretty suspicious that he reraised so little making it seem like he wanted callers. He should have just saved himself some money by raising more on the turn and giving up on the river if you had called or betting more on the river. The river seems definitely like a blocking bet but barring any reads I would just call.
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Feb 21, 2007 21:24
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wtf that's not standard at all. raise turn and if you don't at least raise any non-heart river.
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Feb 21, 2007 23:20
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Psyduck posted:wtf that's not standard at all. raise turn and if you don't at least raise any non-heart river. Why raise the turn? It will push out a lot of hands that otherwise might fire again. Besides, it's kind of a weird line for him to take with a flush draw, don't you think? I now think the river is definitely a push. There's so much garbage in his range that will pay off. I definitely missed value. I hadn't seen this particular player get really out of line with big bets yet. This combined with it being a limped pot made me reluctant to raise the river.
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Feb 21, 2007 23:42
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crackstar posted:http://www.pokerhand.org/?842988 Problem is, a lot of cards are action killers on the river making him less want to get it in, namely a heart. I'd just make it 3-bets on the turn. He's rarely raise-folding here unless he's on a bluff, then I doubt he'd be betting the river anyway.
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Feb 22, 2007 01:36
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http://www.pokerhand.org/?844598 So I made the switch to ring today from SNGs. It was then I realized that I am unaccustomed to big stacks. People don't seem to randomly shove chips when they have 30 blinds. I know the flop I played it poorly. I am not quite sure I should've done though here. Is betting twice the pot too much? What am I looking to bet to prevent people from drawing here?
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Feb 22, 2007 03:57
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Sataere posted:http://www.pokerhand.org/?844598 3 connected cards with 2 of a suit is a terrible flop to slow play on. Just go ahead and raise. Static flops or multiple aggressive opponents behind you are good reasons to slow play. Don't think you have to get super clever just because you hit a set. Your goal in bet sizing with a made hand versus a draw is not to make the draw fold. It's to make a bet large enough that they are making a mistake by calling, whether they realize it or not. You can do this by either not paying off when the draw hits, or betting enough of your stack that you can pay off every time a draw hits. Often in deep stack NL it's impractical to bet 1/5 of your stack or whatever the magic number at the time is, so you have to refuse to pay off. When you've bet enough that they are making a mistake, you actually root for them to call. Your turn play is unexploitable by the short stack's flush draw do to stack size. A flush makes it on the river about 1 time in 5. For every 1 unit someone calls with a flush draw on the turn, they have to be able to win 4 from the pot or in future betting to break even. If there is 1 unit in the pot, and you bet 1, he will have to win 2 units on average when he makes his hand to break even. In this particular case, he doesn't even have enough money to bet on the river to break even, so don't sweat it. Had the bigger stack called with a flush draw, you win by refusing to pay off enough for him to profit. Knowing the odds (not percentages) of making a hand is useful for thinking about implied odds. For example, you are thinking of calling with a gut-shot to the nuts on the flop, getting 3:1 pot odds. If you know your draw is 10.5:1 then you can subtract the 3 you are already getting from the pot, and you know you have to win 7.5 times the current bet in future betting to break even. Compare this number to what the pot will be (to estimate the size of future bets) and the stacks of your opponents, and you have an relatively quick way to judge whether a call is worthwhile or not. You can also do this to figure out how much to bet against draws. Many of these come up over and over, so unless you’re super fast at converting % to ratios, it’s worth it to commit them to memory. I hope that was helpful for you. This post ended up way longer than I expected. crackstar fucked around with this message at 05:36 on Feb 22, 2007 |
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Feb 22, 2007 05:24
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crackstar posted:Why raise the turn? It will push out a lot of hands that otherwise might fire again. Besides, it's kind of a weird line for him to take with a flush draw, don't you think? yeah I think it's fine actually. this is a really weird line for a heart semi-bluff and you'll see an outright bluff (or a hand that is drawing very thin like he had) more often, so you'll get him to bluff again on the river a lot by just calling turn instead of re-raising over him. however I just meant that you need to get your stack in somewhere, optimally on most rivers.
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Feb 22, 2007 17:42
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http://www.pokerhand.org/?849513 Villain is like 40/20/4 over a large sample, and generally plays fast and loose. The flop bet is a little smaller than I would typically make, I was trying to look like I might be scared of the ace and incite a push from a worse hand. Besides the clubs the flop is very dry. The small bet doesn't make that much of a difference though, other than that a larger bet would make my turn push a bit more reasonable. I think I lose way too much money with these hands, and I want to find a way to play them that gets value from worse hands without spewing to better. I considered checking behind on the turn, and calling/value betting the river, and I think this is probably a better line. Given the amount that he called pre-flop, he has to either stack me nearly every time he hits his set or pick up a lot of pots when he doesn't. edit: My image is that I'm a spewy retard, because that's what I'd been playing like. crackstar fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Feb 23, 2007 |
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Feb 23, 2007 20:12
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LuckySevens posted:Who likes? Can you explain what is not standard about this hand?
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Feb 23, 2007 21:31
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crackstar posted:http://www.pokerhand.org/?849513 His preflop call is pretty wacky, calling off 15.5BB to try and hit a set with their medium PP isn't the smartest thing to do. Your flop bet is a little too small, try to go with 2/3 pot or 3/4 pot there since there are 2 clubs out. If they will bet at it if you check, try a check raise sometimes to keep them honest. On the turn, I don't understand your shove since it seems like the only thing calling you with a bet that large is something that beats you and maybe something like AQ/AJ (maybe). I think they only call you when they are ahead the majority of the time, so bombing the turn isn't getting value out of your hand at all against weaker aces/draws. If you are scared they have a flush draw, you are giving them an easy correct decision to fold there.
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Feb 24, 2007 01:23
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echinopsis fucked around with this message at 10:51 on Nov 5, 2008 |
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Feb 26, 2007 03:49
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mandruku posted:http://www.pokerhand.org/?856301 Firstly, you shouldn't be playing heads up if you're going to not attack your opponent more. Raise preflop. Next, bet the flop more, like 3/4 of the pot. Or check-raise the flop. Or, when he raises the flop, at least put in a pot sized 3-bet. Just get the drat money in there. Why are you playing it so weakly?
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Feb 26, 2007 05:15
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echinopsis fucked around with this message at 10:51 on Nov 5, 2008 |
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Feb 26, 2007 06:50
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mandruku posted:I'm still a newbie and I'm having trouble just risking it sometimes. No real excuses. Am getting better though, better than my tryhard-aggressive plays where I'm betting with average hands and getting emotionally involved and going all in with crap and losing, like I have been doing. Risking? You have trips. He will pay you off with worse hands. That is all you need to know. Get the money in the middle.
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Feb 26, 2007 07:16
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mandruku posted:I didn't think my hand was actually strong enough to play, but was SB and thought why not, there's only 2 of us. Also, I've found when playing such low blinds where I do people just tend to fold when I preflop raise much. Still learning though KQo is a much, much better than average hand heads up, and is pretty good in the way of lacking reverse implied odds at least in HU pots. Also, if you raise preflop and they fold, you actually win money so it is all good! Moreover the more you raise preflop, the less inclined they will be to fold when you have real monsters.
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Feb 26, 2007 08:39
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Preflop hu KQ is a raising hand, you need to be taking the lead preflop so you can control the hand. You should be raising the 4xBB, not him. Your min 3-bet on the flop like previously mentioned is a bit doodoo, reraise at least potsize. On the turn when he reraises you, I'm 3-betting it to potsize or even just shoving over the top. I doubt they care if you do have trips since OMG FLUSH DRAW! At the stakes you are at people will see a flush draw and call pot bets and shoves with it because flush draws = the nuts in their minds. I hope you see this information is being constructive and you don't think we're a bunch of jerks. Some of us may be a bit short with you, but this is all to make you a better player. Congrats on taking the dip into No Limit Holdem and I hope you will stay with us and continue to rise through the ranks.
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Feb 26, 2007 15:53
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echinopsis fucked around with this message at 10:51 on Nov 5, 2008 |
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Feb 26, 2007 19:58
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mandruku posted:maybe I raised too weakly pre-flop Yeah, you should get in the habit of raising to higher amounts preflop when you reraise. I tend to make it 3-4x what they made it. Since their raise here was already pretty sizeable, I'd make it like $0.90 - $1.
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Feb 26, 2007 22:03
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This isn't too indepth a point, but as you can see from that hand, it's always best to sit with the full amount, so you can win the most from your strong hands. Unless you had just lost a big hand, in which case, sorry, I'll shut up now.
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Feb 26, 2007 22:10
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