|
Free Gucci Mane posted:Last quarter, someone asked to be reminded to buy NFLX before earnings. So here I am, reminding you to buy NFLX before earnings.  $.09 over estimates and it's thrown off a cliff. Tasty and Delicious fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Jul 21, 2010 |
#
?
Jul 21, 2010 21:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 28, 2024 07:35 |
|
|
Tasty and Delicious posted:
$0.12 excluding stock-based compensation. Plus beat revenue estimates and guided higher. Not sure what to make of the after-hours trading. Doesn't feel like sell-the-news kind of action so it may just be people taking profits after getting poleaxed elsewhere in the market today. I'm long Aug call spreads and will likely stay that way until at least noon tomorrow to see what shakes out.
|
|
#
?
Jul 21, 2010 21:44
|
|
|
Decline in free cash flow Q to Q for nflx. Which was pretty small to begin with. EV/market cap is reasonable though. Not like VMW or CRM which are pretty absurd and deserve to go down far more than NFLX does.
Jack fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Jul 21, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jul 21, 2010 21:52
|
|
|
Jack posted:Decline in free cash flow Q to Q for nflx. Which was pretty small to begin with. EV/market cap is reasonable though. Not like VMW or CRM which are pretty absurd and deserve to go down far more than NFLX does. Cash flow decline seems like a strange reason for 120,000 shares to trade 6.25% lower in the minute earnings were announced, particularly since the earnings themselves were good. I think it's more likely that there were people ready to take profits at the end of a lovely day in the rest of the market. I have no clue what this means for trading tomorrow. But I don't think the AH trading is useful for making decisions and I'm going to wait to see what happens in the morning. Just to be clear, because we like to pick nits in this thread, I have 0 opinion of NFLX as an investment. My action is a 100% speculative play and if I'm wrong I'm wrong. That's what happens with speculation and I take my lumps like a big boy. Edit: In other news the BIDU AH chart looks like the EKG of anybody short BIDU straddles. Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Jul 21, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jul 21, 2010 22:12
|
|
|
Does anyone in this thread use RBC Direct Investing? I contacted their tech support about this but got a ridiculous answer. (blurred to protect my dignity at how poorly this trade went) This company moved from the TSX-V to main TSX on June 23rd. I haven't been logging in to my Direct Investing account that often, but today I did after it jumped 24%. The problem is what you see in the screenshot. Rather than display the stock symbol of CLQ, it's displaying C109774. The price is neither the price upon moving exchanges, or the price it's currently trading at. Under the action heading, there should be Buy / Sell links, but there isn't. Tech support told me they were "waiting on some new data from the exchange" and to wait it out for at least a week. Has anyone else experienced this? tl;dr RBC Direct Investing has high fees, lovely support, and a rubbish trading platform. e: Email support clarified that it's the transfer agent being slow as poo poo, not "some new data from the exchange". Phone support is dicks. ElehemEare fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Jul 21, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jul 21, 2010 22:20
|
|
|
Netflix had a P/E ratio of about 50, so it's not like it needs that big of an excuse to go down. Free cash flow, as I estimate it, is about 22 million, half of reported earnings, but a lot of that is gearing up their streaming content - they spent more than twice as much on it as on buying DVDs, and actually DVD acquisitions have gone down since last quarter. But at the very least Netflix has decent margins and hardly any interest requirements; it's just hideously overpriced in my view. Coinstar reports on the 29th; their margins are pathetic, their interest coverage ratio is anemic at hardly over 2x (although with their low margins it'll take a ton of lost sales to invade the coverage further), and their P/E ratio as adjusted for nonrecurring events is even higher at around 70. I've heard somewhere that Chicago has invented a thing called a put option.
|
|
#
?
Jul 21, 2010 23:14
|
|
|
NFLX is a case of every single big player in the market staring at them and working on a competitor. I think Mark Cuban is right about Netflix- their cost structure is impossibly low and they are essentially a test market for the big content producers looking to enter the streaming game. They are already getting a ton of resistance from the studios and it's only going to get worse as more competitors enter the market. DVD rental by mail was a neat novelty, but it fails just as hard as Blockbuster as soon as streaming enters the living room. This is already happening rapidly, and Netflix is doing a good job of recognizing that and pushing their way in but they've been unable to land any really appealing contracts for newer content, and don't really appear to be making much headway in that respect. Everyone always goes "wah wah wah, market is unfair and is punishing great earnings" the day of earnings and ignore the predictive qualities of the market that have pushed the stock up roughly 25% since the last earnings report. Great earnings were already priced in and then some, and a lot of people have enjoyed a huge run up in the last 3 months while the market at large went down. Stop trying to daytrade, the market will loving murder you.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 04:45
|
|
|
The hidden factor there is that Netflix has always been and is at it's core a streaming company, they simply invented the mail division because streaming wasn't feasible when the company was born. Streaming has been their core strategy since day one--the name is Netflix, not Mailflix. They already have their own set top box, they're in Xbox, Wii, and I believe soon PS3 (people still have those?) and have struck deals with TV manufacturers to be included by default in the firmware of TV sets. Their books were terrible a few years ago too before their mailing division really took off via word of mouth and their heavy affiliate marketing push, and I wouldn't count them out of the next phase quite so easily. They are fighting content publishers, but so is everyone and so far they're the only ones who have made any sort of progress, even if so far it's been with small studios. Their biggest problem is the conglomerate beast of Hulu, but the jury will be out a while on that one. None of the media geeks I know can stand Hulu but that's not really who matters. If Hulu can succeed they'll be a long-term threat to Netflix as they're big content owned, but Netflix has a head start in both brand perception and "last mile"* implementation. What's all this mean for the long term viability of the stock? I have no idea. The first innovators rarely take the lion's share of the spoils. *Last mile in this case being internet->tv devices
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 04:53
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:BLAH BLAH BLAH Right indeed 
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 06:11
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:Everyone always goes "wah wah wah, market is unfair and is punishing great earnings" the day of earnings and ignore the predictive qualities of the market that have pushed the stock up roughly 25% since the last earnings report. Great earnings were already priced in and then some, and a lot of people have enjoyed a huge run up in the last 3 months while the market at large went down. Chief Executive Reed Hastings posted:"For the last two quarters, the acceleration of our growth has been astounding, driven by the increasing appeal of streaming. This kind of rapid acceleration is unlikely to continue for long, but as our guidance for the third quarter implies, we do see it continuing in the third quarter," (Nevertheless, I'm bearish on Netflix. Their P/DVD is a little higher than the industry average, and their 2 DVD yield means they'll find support at $10.)
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 09:54
|
|
|
I wanted to save my smug trade post for a good one: Shorted NFLX at 119 
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 11:28
|
|
|
fougera posted:I wanted to save my smug trade post for a good one: I have to say I seriously considered shorting at around 120-122 yesterday. You have to be pretty ballsy to short netflix before earnings like that, though, based on past performance and the already pretty outrageous short ratio (something like 22% of float is shorted?) For that, I salute you, you had the balls that I lacked.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 13:59
|
|
|
mcsuede posted:They already have their own set top box, they're in Xbox, Wii, and I believe soon PS3 (people still have those?) and have struck deals with TV manufacturers to be included by default in the firmware of TV sets. I've had the PS3 netflix disc for nearly 6 months.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 14:31
|
|
|
Bought 47 shares of SCIN in my first trade ever! I think Indian small caps are going to be awesome. The net expense ratio seems under control and the gross seems about par for emerging market poo poo. I pay the net though, right? My rear end in a top hat broker said I had to wait until this morning to trade I wanted to buy it yesterday damnit.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 14:51
|
|
|
I'm enjoying minor success with BXI.TO. They have patents on a crop with a warehouse in Saskatchewan about a week away from start up, and production warehouse #2 is scheduled to open next year in Idaho with double the capacity of the Sask. location. My use of a smug emoticon post-2012 depends entirely on whether BXI can land contracts with larger companies that want their ultra-protein supplement in energy and protein drinks and whey powders. . What I like most is it's a new agri business in two of the best states/provinces in North America for that kind of work. However, it's still a penny stock and they haven't made any money; the stock rises on the "hopefully we make some serious cash... next year" sentiment. I look forward to what they're up to five years down the road.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 19:48
|
|
|
fougera posted:I wanted to save my smug trade post for a good one: I've been wanting to short NFLX whenever it hit above $120 this last 3 weeks  but I can't because it has been HTB for a while.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 19:51
|
|
|
Dr. Jackal posted:I've been wanting to short NFLX whenever it hit above $120 this last 3 weeks
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 20:19
|
|
|
Hmm yes my recent NFLX buy at $117.15 seems like a wise move right now. 
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 20:36
|
|
|
Bigass Moth posted:Hmm yes my recent NFLX buy at $117.15 seems like a wise move right now. *Could take a while
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 20:52
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:Considering the average volume, today's volume, and the float, there's going to be a short squeeze at some point.* Oh, don't tell me you're still long on Netflix.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 20:56
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:Oh, don't tell me you're still long on Netflix. I kept my bull call spread on. It's long vol, has manageable theta and didn't see anything in today's action that told me to cut my losses (also my max loss is less than 0.5% of my bankroll).
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 21:11
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:What about writing calls/buying puts? I don't think I signed my Roth for options :X Hobologist posted:Oh, don't tell me you're still long on Netflix. entry into netflix at 103? why wouldn't you? I would bet more then anything that a large portion of today sell off was people trying to collect their "should've sold at $120" and short actions.
|
|
#
?
Jul 22, 2010 22:22
|
|
|
Buying it at 103 doesn't mean anything. I'd be careful of falling daggers.
Tasty and Delicious fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Jul 23, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 00:32
|
|
|
I think I'm just lucky, some rainman, or maybe just good at this. I was handed a stock trading account with Siebert to manage, and own, with the simple instructions of 'do better than I did' two weeks ago. The account had something like $419,000 combined, cash and portfolio. My father was big into biotech, since he is a doctor, and he knows what and when to buy, but is terrible at selling. Anyway, he was getting about a 10% return per annum the past few years, which I can't complain about. I made my first picks and buys about 2 weeks ago, and am going to use most of the rest of the $140k or so left in cash slush to do so, since it sitting there's doing me no good. I'm eyeing more oil companies since they are getting hammered because of that thing in the Gulf. Anyway, did my beginner's luck do good?  
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 00:41
|
|
|
quote:I think I'm just lucky, some rainman, or maybe just good at this. Option 1.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 01:03
|
|
|
mik posted:Option 1. With Ford, yeah, it was, but I really like NE Noble's longterm prospects and think it's super undervalued. We'll see, though, most of whaat I have wanted to do so far but didn't have the balls has had me regretting not pulling the trigger, like shorting the hell out of Tesla the day after the IPO, but that was a no-brainer. While I'm trying my hand at medium-and long-term stuff, when I learn more, I want to get into really short term trading, since I like the idea and have the capital to make it work (maybe.) But I'm gonna hold off till I'm not a clueless bumbling newbie. Edit: Only thing about NE that worries me is their proposed buyout of Anadarko and the attached 25% liability in the Gulf thing, but I don't know enough to fully understand the possible outcomes I also like the concept of hedging to isolate risk from overall sector trends, and pitting company versus company, and that is the strategy I am going to research the gently caress out of next. It just seems so neato, as a risk-reducing concept. Method Loser fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Jul 23, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 01:11
|
|
|
What do people think about Amazon after the "disappointing" earnings and 11% after-hours drop today?
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 01:12
|
|
|
Dr. Eldarion posted:What do people think about Amazon after the "disappointing" earnings and 11% after-hours drop today? Bought a ton of it in after-hours.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 01:37
|
|
|
Method Loser posted:With Ford, yeah, it was, but I really like NE Noble's longterm prospects and think it's super undervalued. We'll see, though, most of whaat I have wanted to do so far but didn't have the balls has had me regretting not pulling the trigger, like shorting the hell out of Tesla the day after the IPO, but that was a no-brainer. While I'm trying my hand at medium-and long-term stuff, when I learn more, I want to get into really short term trading, since I like the idea and have the capital to make it work (maybe.) But I'm gonna hold off till I'm not a clueless bumbling newbie. Are you swing trading your dad's money with no experience? If you're not you shouldn't get excited about two week gains because two weeks is nothing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 01:41
|
|
|
Method Loser posted:... What the gently caress? Your dad gave you, an inexperienced trader, $140K of real money to trade with? And the first thing you do is buy into sectors with heavy volatility? Jesus, I was born into the wrong family
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 02:40
|
|
|
Dr. Eldarion posted:What do people think about Amazon after the "disappointing" earnings and 11% after-hours drop today? About time. Method Loser posted:Anyway, he was getting about a 10% return per annum the past few years, which I can't complain about. I made my first picks and buys about 2 weeks ago, and am going to use most of the rest of the $140k or so left in cash slush to do so, since it sitting there's doing me no good. I'm eyeing more oil companies since they are getting hammered because of that thing in the Gulf. Anyway, did my beginner's luck do good? It is literally impossible to tell on the basis of two transactions and two weeks. But have you anything better to recommend Noble than "Hey, the Gulf of Mexico thing is overrated." I will caution you that the skills for trading and investing largely do not overlap in my opinion.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 03:09
|
|
|
This must have been discussed before but what are your thoughts on RIG? What's the best way to get some commodities exposure?
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 03:59
|
|
|
Tasty and Delicious posted:Are you swing trading your dad's money with no experience? I know. I feel both companies are good things to hold on to in the near future, though, so I'm just happy I didn't royally gently caress up. I know two weeks is nothing, but this is the first time I've ever played with REAL money, I've done some thought games for years and usually my ideas would have been profitable when I follow them. It's not like I have no idea what I'm doing at all. ChubbyEmoBabe posted:What the gently caress? Your dad gave you, an inexperienced trader, $140K of real money to trade with? No, 420k. 220 liquid, 200 in stuff he liked which I am researching into if I should hold/sell since I know little about biotech. I have 140 now since I put 80 into NE and F. Like I said, he;s good at knowing when to buy, bad at knowing when to sell, so I'll figure this all out. Hobologist posted:About time. I know. These are just the real transactions, though, I've had LOTS of years of thinking about the market and making guesses as to what I would theoretically do, so it's not like I'm bumbling in saying 'HAY WHAT'S SHORTING' or something. But I do still realize I know VERY little, and need to learn a whole lot more. It's just encouraging that I didn't lose 10k the first day, or something. I'm simplifying about the gulf thing, I've done my homework on NE, and I like how they look for the price I paid. I'm just dipping my toe in here, and will slowly go until I'm underwater, I have no intention of thinking myself superman and losing everything thinking I'm Warren Buffett Basically, I didn't mean to come off saying 'I DID THESE TWO RIGHT THEREORE I KNOW ALL,' I am just saying it's some good encouragement for a complete newbie to using real live dollars 
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:12
|
|
|
Method Loser posted:I know. These are just the real transactions, though, I've had LOTS of years of thinking about the market and making guesses as to what I would theoretically do, so it's not like I'm bumbling in saying 'HAY WHAT'S SHORTING' or something. Park your dad's money in PIMCO Total Return until you've run your "thought games" in a paper account for a year or two because Jesus Christ you're bragging about two trades after two weeks on a subforum of a goddamned Internet Comedy Site?
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:17
|
|
|
Plastic Jesus posted:Park your dad's money in PIMCO Total Return until you've run your "thought games" in a paper account for a year or two because Jesus Christ you're bragging about two trades after two weeks on a subforum of a goddamned Internet Comedy Site? I have been doing thought games for years, not in any official tracked account, but just tracked in my mind. 'oh, I'd buy this now' and remember, see it rise (or sometimes, less often, fall) and think 'and then dump it now and make whatever %' )or go 'oh poo poo I would have lost x%, bad idea.) . The only reason I was given this almost half a million dollars was because I've been conversing for my father about my 'thought games' for years now and he seems to think I can do well. My father wasn't like 'oh here's a half million dollars in a trading account, go buck wild with 0 idea what you're doing' I still discuss with him what trades I'm going to make to get his feedback, too, even though it's now my money, just to bounce ideas off someone with more experience (even if he wasn't the greatest; he did okay) And I'm not bragging, I'm just introducing myself duders, sorry if I came off as arrogant Basically, this was a HAY GUYZ into this thread, but I guess I came on too strong. Sorry, I was just excited about my luk ad prospects for the future
Method Loser fucked around with this message at 04:23 on Jul 23, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:19
|
|
|
Method Loser posted:I have been doing thought games for years, not in any official tracked account, but just tracked in my mind. 'oh, I'd buy this now' and remember, see it rise (or sometimes, less often, fall) and think 'and then dump it now and make whatever %' A person's memory tends to play tricks on them. That's why paper investing is important* * for varying definitions of "important"; the sad fact is that the right process can produce the wrong results and vice versa, so really you need an ironclad process, which is why it sort of disturbs me that you "like the long term stuff for now but want to get into day trading because..."
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:27
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:A person's memory tends to play tricks on them. That's why paper investing is important* I'm talking at least 2 years from now, getting into day trading. And even then I would make sure I knew what the gently caress I was doing. I'm not planning on doing this next week; this is a future goal for me And I understand the memory thing, but we're also talking about my father's memory of my track record of guesses and predictions, and he's confident enough to give me a half mil, as basically 'I think this can support you the rest of your life if you do right, so I have a gift for you' so that should say SOMETHING, I'm not a total moron at least. But you're right, I should have done it official-like with monopoly money, but I feel confident I can not lose my rear end right now, and at least pull somewhat of a small profit. I don't expect to do as well as I have the past few weeks for a long time, I know I just got lucky. But still, I was the one that made the choices, so I didn't completely gently caress up or anything. It's just a slight boost to my hope that I can do this forever and do well, as a profession for myself. And I know that I very well could end up be being behind 10% after a year, but if I learn, it may just be worth it to me. I'm not in any way delusional about my chances or ability, I just have the luck to have a lareish amount of capital, so it would require a super bonehead move to destroy myself. Keep in mind I'm 24, I have a lot of life to go. Method Loser fucked around with this message at 04:34 on Jul 23, 2010 |
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:28
|
|
|
But you liked Noble because of the Gulf thing and are worried about the Andarko. Those are the concerns of a fundamental approach. Fundamentals don't generally come into the day trading arena; what changes about a company on a single day? (Apart from an oil rig exploding, of course, but that's not what a day trader cares to predict). Short term trading requires quite a different approach. What is your approach? Do you have an approach?
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:35
|
|
|
Hobologist posted:But you liked Noble because of the Gulf thing and are worried about the Andarko. Those are the concerns of a fundamental approach. Fundamentals don't generally come into the day trading arena; what changes about a company on a single day? (Apart from an oil rig exploding, of course, but that's not what a day trader cares to predict). Short term trading requires quite a different approach. No, whihc is why I'm saying for not even at least 2 years will I actually do it, maybe start with monopoly money in a year, but until I feel like I DO know what you're asking, I won't even attempt it. Like I said, future goal I want to someday partake it. And only if I do well on the longer term side of things, say I get REAL lucky and make 100k in 3 years off my long/mid term investments, well, Ill set aside like 50 and day trade with that, WHEN I FEEL LIKE I KNOW WHAT I AM DOING, so if I really gently caress up, I can go back to the other that I hopefully will be good at and not lose everything.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 28, 2024 07:35 |
|
|
Method Loser posted:... Heed what Hobologist is saying. There is a world of difference to the point of being mutually exclusive between "trading" and "investing". "Investors" generally don't/won't sell until a long term objective is reached and don't watch day to day or even month to month performance. "Traders" only have a target to fulfill and sell when they reach it if it's today or 10 years from now. Short term high volatility plays are for "day traders", the guys that "feast or famine" for the most part.
|
|
#
?
Jul 23, 2010 04:46
|
|