|
Jreedy88 posted:Thanks for this, and all the others who contributed to keep me from shorting it. Next concern: what to do about Toyota? Stay the hell away from it or throw some cash it for when the media lets it go and things get back to normal? There's also talk of a second recall coming on the Prius. I can't comment on BRK.B because I don't understand it yet. Don't jump on TM right now. Calling bottoms is for suckers and if it recovers you'll have plenty of chances to buy on the way up. Long-only plays of the best names in the current market are sketchy, long-only plays in stocks trading 10% below their 200 day SMA is for people who hate money. If you feel that you absolutely must trade TM, play the vol. Depending on how things look at 11:00 tomorrow I may put on a Feb 75 straddle, but that's only because I'm a loving moron.
|
#
¿
Feb 9, 2010 06:48
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 27, 2024 18:22 |
|
|
kholdstayr posted:I have a quick question on LEAPS options. Someone told me that LEAPS options are European style options but I can't find any information on that online. Do LEAPS behave like regular options or the European style? Depends on the underlying. In general options on indexes are European-style (though there are exceptions), options on equities are American-style.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 10, 2010 14:57
|
|
|
LactoseO.D.'d posted:Opinions on ALGT? They look like they are putting up some good numbers but the short interest is awfully high... What am I missing? I hadn't looked into them until just now but...yah, they look decent to someone who's spent 10 minutes looking at Reuters and MarketWatch. I can't explain the continued short interest; they have been getting killed since the beginning of November but they keep piling on. It's a thinly traded name, though, with fairly high vol because of that. Doesn't help that options on it are nearly non-existent. I'm also wary of "leisure travel" at this moment, particularly when it's a relatively expensive stock. The chart looks good. If it closes above $53.50 it could run up another $3.00. Nice thing about a stock off only 10% from its 52-week high is that you at least know where the shorts are. Unfortunate thing is that you know where the shorts are and may have to watch them bat you down regularly. It's listed as "hard to borrow" in thinkorswim so hopefully the latter won't be a problem for you.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 11, 2010 05:14
|
|
|
ChubbyEmoBabe posted:It's been closing green pretty much for 2 weeks now. I really can't figure out where it's coming from. Ford
|
|
#
¿
Feb 17, 2010 23:04
|
|
|
This is super-creepy. I kept expecting it to become obviously satire, but no, just kept on being creepy.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 18, 2010 06:09
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:this is amateur crap but why is it creepy? Dude has "bad touch" written all over him.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 18, 2010 23:25
|
|
|
Limit Up posted:Horrible news A/H. Things are going to hit the fan tomorrow. Discount window raised and Fed Funds rate is next. Right at resistance too. They're hoping the news gets digested over the weekend to prevent further collapse. Whether it works we'll see Monday. Monday will be huge and if they want this rally going strong, they better have the printing presses going Monday. The FOMC minutes clearly telegraphed the discount window hike. The Fed has been overly clear that they will return to a discount rate premium before raising the fed funds rate. I don't understand why people are being such loving babies about a 25bp hike on loans that are only used for emergencies. If the Fed "hoped the news gets digested over the weekend to prevent further collapse" they wouldn't have announced it before expiration Friday, they'd have announced it tomorrow afternoon. It's not a big deal but I encourage you to go short SPX futures if it will make you feel better.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 19, 2010 05:16
|
|
|
Limit Up posted:So tell me what the trade is then and why. Also exclude the fact that the Fed's gonna pump more money in. Because they're not. Monetary easing is done with. That's the trade right now. Currencies still showing it We open down 10-15 due to people thinking the sky is falling. People start buying bargains after lunch, close is flat or slightly down. This provides the shake-out from the overbought conditions we're at now and we touch 1120 next week. QE isn't "done with" because of a 25bp increase of the discount rate. But yup, it's getting reeled in slowly, deliberately and with lots of advance notice from the Fed. S&P futures are off a whopping 8.5 points, Dow down 57.00. The world is not ending.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 19, 2010 12:56
|
|
|
Cheesemaster200 posted:How the gently caress did gold not tank today? Because raising the discount window rate 25bp changes nothing on a macro level. What I don't understand is why silver got so feisty.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 20, 2010 05:32
|
|
|
Thoogsby posted:He also recommended Reminiscences of a Stock Operator saying that even though the material is from 70 years ago he still uses the lessons he learned from it everyday at work. It looks like a tough read but would probably be worth the time of someone trying to further their investment knowledge. On the contrary, it's one of the most enjoyable reads you'll find. It's not investment advice at all, and Larry Livingston/Edwin Lefèvre/Jesse Livermore makes that clear throughout. There's an annotated version with an introduction from Paul Tudor Jones that's supposedly great.
|
|
#
¿
Feb 24, 2010 04:41
|
|
|
Free Gucci Mane posted:I'm searching for a good stable large-cap dividend stock to invest in for the long-term, any suggestions? The ones I'm kinda leaning towards at this point are PM, MMM, and PG. If you wanted something cheaper you could consider DUK (closed at $16.38, $21B market cap, 5.86% dividend yield, 0.41 beta, 30-day HV of ~14.5) and VZ(closed at $28.88, $82B market cap, 6.5% dividend yield, 0.62 beta, 30 day HV of ~17).
|
|
#
¿
Feb 26, 2010 02:50
|
|
|
f2a posted:edit: basically I think Fooled by Randomness should be mandatory reading for this forum, and all traders for that matter. It's a shame that NNT is an insufferable oval office because, when not repeating himself and grandstanding, he has interesting things to say. "Flaw of Averages" is also a good book, and the author is not nearly as obnoxious.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 1, 2010 22:15
|
|
|
Thoogsby posted:NNT seems like a real interesting guy, although apparently he rubs some people the wrong way. I dare you to read his Twitter feed and not walk outside and punch the first person you see.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 1, 2010 23:19
|
|
|
destructo posted:I imagine it must just be queued market buys/sells that people put in AH, does that make sense? After-hours trading doesn't set the opening price since those transactions happen off-exchange. Open price calculation is a surprisingly involved topic. How it's done also differs by exchange. Here's how it's done on the NYSE, NASDAQ explanation here.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 2, 2010 18:36
|
|
|
lazybrain posted:While it may sound complex, this strategy is very simple and cheap, since the idea is for your puts to never reach exercise territory. You can sleep easy at night knowing your SIRI, AIG, and C stock is safe due to those near-the-money puts you purchased a while ago. You can't assign arbitrary strike prices. In fact, there are no OTM SIRI options right now because it's under a dollar. So let's look at Citi. The nearest OTM puts are the at $3, C is trading at $3.40 right now. Let's say you have 100 shares of C you're afraid might head south. Delta on the $3 calls is ~8.5/contract so you'll need to buy 12 contracts to get delta-neutral (meaning that the price of the options increases in line with the loss in value of the underlying). With commissions it'll cost about $52 for the front side of the trade- that's $52 to insure $340 worth of the underlying (15%). If C does indeed drop and completely ignoring Theta you need C to hit ~$3.05 before you could break even on both the sale of the options and the loss in the underlying (this includes the $28 commission for selling-to-close). Or you need it to hit $3.92 on the upside to cover insurance costs. If the stock is anywhere between 3.05 (again, ignoring theta) and 3.92 when your options expire and you're banking a 15% loss. People should feel free to deride me/call me an idiot if I've missed or misunderstood something.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 3, 2010 15:50
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:Thanks for this. Will read up on it. This is generally a bad idea, as spreads can get really wide for no reason during off-hours trading. I don't know about Scottrade, but with thinkorswim you can set alerts when a bid hits a certain threshold and receive and email letting you know about it. Then you can manually decide whether or not to exit.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 3, 2010 16:22
|
|
|
Sure am glad I dumped those GS calls yesterday at the close 
|
|
#
¿
Mar 4, 2010 17:39
|
|
|
Janin posted:I don't see how choosing a broker that charges less is a bad choice; I don't use the fancy features in the expensive brokerages reviewed in the first post, and as a newbie investor the extra subscriptions and fees add up much faster. It's never been a problem before -- this is the first time a stock I've wanted's gone up so fast over a weekend. Take a look at thinkorswim. $0.015/share commission with a minimum of $5 (that's for each leg of the trade). And it didn't have to go up fast. If you were tying to save $6 and were buying a round lot you only needed to miss a move of 0.06/point for it to cost you.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 8, 2010 23:04
|
|
|
D13F00L posted:Anyone know of any good telecom companies that are going to be providing chipsets or backhaul equipment for rolling out 4g tech like wimax or LTE? I like TKLC in this space, but I second-guessed myself and missed the boat last month, now it's pretty overbought. If it trickles down below $17 or craters to $15 I'll likely be a buyer.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 9, 2010 04:28
|
|
|
D13F00L posted:drat! They're super volatile with smallish volume so the stock gets shoved around a lot. They managed to break resistance around $17.50, but I don't think it will hold. If they do test it on the way down and it shows support, could touch 20. Either way I'm sitting an watching, not buying. The Dollar/Market correlation has been on-again/off-again lately, which is to say there hasn't recently been a real correlation. This probably just comes down to the Euro and cable weakening and is not a lasting trend (cheap dollars will still send the markets higher) but it's nice to see some confidence from the market with the $DXY over 80. An inflation spike is still just a bugbear preached by the Zero Hedge crowd and probably not a real concern until next year at the earliest. As for why everything is making new highs (there's now a high in the number of Dow components at their 52-week highs) on very thin volume? I dunno but it makes me uneasy.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 9, 2010 05:02
|
|
|
PianoDragn posted:Possibly a stupid question, I am thinking of picking up some shares of DZZ. I remember hearing somewhere (can't find source anymore) that when shorting the maximum ROI you can have is 200% is that true? When shorting the most you can make is the sale price * number of shares you're short, less any borrowing costs (and that assumes the stock goes to 0). Inverse and leveraged funds are not intended to be held beyond a day. If you don't understand why not then you should do a lot more research before buying in.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 12, 2010 21:53
|
|
|
I liked it better when people didn't talk about penny stocks.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2010 02:47
|
|
|
LactoseO.D.'d posted:On a related note I'm looking at grabbing a dividend ETF for my Roth and writing some calls against it. I'm having a terrible time finding a good one. Some of these have expense ratios they just don't deserve. Anyone have any suggestions? Is there any reason you're looking for an ETF rather than just high-yield stocks? Particularly if you want do buy-writes, VZ and DUK are good, easy and cheap candidates. You're LactoseO.D. so I'm confident you understand dividend risk associated with selling calls. But everyone else reading this post really needs to understand dividend risk associated with selling calls.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 15, 2010 02:32
|
|
|
Thought very hard about selling SPX Iron Condors ahead of the FOMC announcement, decided against it in case the discount window rate gets bumped another 25bp and the market gets spooked. May revisit the trade after 14:15.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 16, 2010 15:29
|
|
|
Markets do go down, right?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 16, 2010 21:02
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:For those of you who don't want to deal with options, there's the VXX ETN offered by iShares, though AFAIK there's no short counterpart. At this point though, the VIX can't get much lower. VXX tracking errors make UNG look like an accurate representation of the price of Natty. This is particularly true when the near-term VIX future expire (like on Friday) and roll into next-month contracts that are in contango (which is almost always the case). It's an incredibly flaky product for something that is already hard to understand; you're treating something like a stock that's a representation of volatility of a product that is a statistic about the volatility of another product. If one expects a tick up in vol it's safer and easier to just buy SPX options. Edit: 
Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Mar 17, 2010 |
|
#
¿
Mar 17, 2010 21:41
|
|
|
LactoseO.D.'d posted:Yeah that was a fun day. I thought it'd be a nice quiet Friday. There wasn't any economic news... did anything hit the wires that was noteworthy at all? Not that I noticed. I don't buy much into the "quadruple witching" thing but it does make sense that, after opening bell settlement, options and futures traders were unwinding positions in a very overbought market. I had a bad month, all due to mechanics of trades not to the trades themselves. Which is nice, because I just have to blame myself and not some market bogeyman. I'm going to happily do nothing until $DXY gets beat down by or breaks 81.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 20, 2010 06:28
|
|
|
D13F00L posted:Been holding GE. They'll recover, it's a good long term stock. If you sold near-month calls at the close today you'll need it to close on April 16 under $18.80 (ignoring transaction fees). I don't know if that will happen or not but they just guided higher and 2011 will likely hold some nice dividends so I'd probably hold onto it or at most sell way long dated calls. CAH has a dividend of $0.175 coming up on Monday, when did it go ex-dividend? When did you sell? As for where to put money, I'm the wrong person to ask if you want a fun answer- I'm 50% TLT and 25% cash.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 25, 2010 05:23
|
|
|
Short QQQQ ahead of ORCL earnings and GDP announcement.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 25, 2010 20:54
|
|
|
Duey posted:Citigroup and QCOM have been really performing for me lately. Of course I made the decision to buy XLNX the week before apparent profit-taking so as always, two steps forward, one back. Wish I had posted about QCOM when I bought it so I could legitimately do a QCOM always has a good March. I have no idea why, but it averages around 10% up in March.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2010 14:48
|
|
.
|
goddinpotty posted:So I have a tiny slice of equity in a tech company that's filing for an IPO in the next couple of months under MOTR. I have an offer on the table pre-ipo for 1.10 a share which is about 5x earnings. All pertinent info that I have access to is in the S-1. How do I even begin to think about how to maximize my return? That's an awfully hard question to answer without knowing anything about the company. I will say that 5x is an extremely low valuation for a tech company. Is that trailing or future earnings? Since banks don't usually like to introduce penny stocks I'm going to take random guess that their target IPO price is at least $5. Will you have a blackout period after the offering? If so, how long? Additionally, how long have you owned the equity? If waiting to sell will change those holdings from Short Term Capital Gains to Long Term it could definitely be worth it just from a tax perspective. Don't worry about getting the absolute maximum possible, you'll go insane. Is it a good company? Do you like their prospects? Hold onto it. Lack confidence in them? Sell some. It's not a binary operation, you can sell some if cash in the bank gives you a sense of comfort, and let the rest ride for potential gains. Also, are you sure that they're truly going public? Often companies will file an S-1 to get potential acquirers to make a move.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 27, 2010 15:04
|
|
|
PsychoAndy posted:
In it both as an alternative to cash and because I feel that yields are unsustainably high. 4.78% on the 30-year? Yah, that's gonna last. As soon as there's another 1% drop in the S&P there will be a flight to Treasuries.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 29, 2010 19:54
|
|
|
ANGRY_KOREA_MAN posted:Thanks for the input. I did not expect to do anything with this money but squander it, being 21 gives me some time to learn too I think. Not to pick on you personally, but this comes up a lot: just because one can afford to lose money doesn't mean that he should.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 9, 2010 21:13
|
|
|
destructo posted:Just bought 20 contracts worth of calls at a strike price of $20 for GGP. Which expiration?
|
|
#
¿
Apr 13, 2010 04:11
|
|
|
MrBigglesworth posted:So why is AAPL down $2.24? Are people expecting disappointment with todays earnings releases? It's only down 1% and it's not uncommon that it declines ahead of earnings. Often picks back up a day or two later. At any rate options premiums were ridiculous so I sold May ICs at the close. Edit: And they loving crushed earnings ($3.33 v. $2.45 "expected") 
Plastic Jesus fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Apr 20, 2010 |
|
#
¿
Apr 20, 2010 21:19
|
|
|
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ You're really loving annoying. God of Evil Cows posted:In short, what is the easiest and most straightforward way to place a bet that the Yuan will appreciate against the dollar in the near future? Go nuts. Keep in mind that you're not the only person betting on the possibility of a possibly-kinda-sorta floating Yuan. And that ETFs based on swaps act differently from what you might expect.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 21, 2010 03:22
|
|
|
God of Evil Cows posted:Explain this to me like I'm an idiot, because I am an idiot. As best I understand these EFTs, the value of the EFT is largely(?) tied to the relative value of the Yuan to the dollar, which is why the price of that wisdom tree EFT has remained stable. If the value of the Yuan goes up relative to the dollar, wouldn't the value of the EFT go up as well? How does the fact that a lot of people are betting on the possibility of a kinda-sorta floating Yuan affect this? I started a thread about ETF structures but it wasn't very popular. They can be annoyingly complicated, particularly the currency and commodity funds. Post more questions here or PM me if you want. I'm absolutely not someone from whom you should take financial advice but will try to help if I can. I'll also admit when I don't know something.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 21, 2010 04:22
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:Have some F ahead of earnings on Tuesday, as well as BIDU and BRCM. We'll see whether I'm rejoicing or crying by Tuesday night. What's the motivation to be long stock in BIDU as an earnings play rather than short puts or long calls? I don't know what kind of roll you're playing with but it seems like an expensive directional bet and am curious how you're playing it. If you've got 7+ figures feel free to tell me suck it.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 23, 2010 03:26
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:What do you mean by expensive directional bet? At $640/share it's going to tie up a large percentage of most goon investors' bank rolls. Assuming he bought 10 shares he could get the same exposure selling (buying) the ATM put (call) vertical and only tie up ~$500.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 23, 2010 13:58
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 27, 2024 18:22 |
|
|
unnoticed posted:I think the issue is that they let Paulson pick what went in the CDO fund and knew he was designing it to fail and had a CDS on it and then they told everybody it was a different third-party that picked everything. Just to clarify, the ABACUS products were composed of CDSs not CDOs. And I think it's safe to say that if GS had told any potential investors that Paulsen was the short side of the trade _and_ had selected the underlying bonds there would have been much less interest in them.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 23, 2010 17:48
|
|