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LactoseO.D.'d posted:Lets not forget BIDU's jump to 25 P/S. Definitely overbought. GOOG's market cap is still bigger than the market it serves. So there's a long way to go there. AMZN's FCF was pretty insane this quarter and unlike those idiots at GOOG they seem to know what to do with it.
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Jan 28, 2010 22:37
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Jreedy88 posted:Does anyone have anything to say about trading with Schwab? I have them for their checking account, but I was looking at starting to trade through my One account. Should I take my trades elsewhere? If you're an active trader Interactive Brokers might be better. I think they have better share availability for shorting. If you're just doing 20 stock trades a year or whatever Schwab is serviceable and probably easier to go with them as I believe you can do transfers from checking/trading account and so forth without any hassle and the commission difference would be rather negligible.
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Feb 6, 2010 04:03
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Most market participants use FCF before any of that EPS stuff too. See CRM & VMW for obvious examples.
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Feb 9, 2010 15:58
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What on earth could anyone see in SIRI? Is it just that it's $1 per share?
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Feb 26, 2010 22:19
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ChubbyEmoBabe posted:Who looks at the PPS as any sort of gauge? It's up ~50% in the last 30-45 days and ~900% in the last year. My question was what the hell anyone saw in SIRI. The only answer I could come up with was probably the same reason people liked ETFC, it traded under $10. Unless some people think that SIRI can somehow double and add 4 billion in market cap earning less than a penny a quarter. In which case good luck.
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Feb 27, 2010 16:35
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PsychoAndy posted:It's a zero-sum game. When you make money, someone loses it. Therefore, it's in the best people's interest to keep great moneymaking ideas to themselves, and thus you have to figure out everything for yourself, let alone secrets/strategies to success. If it was easy everyone would be doing it. Look at CRM today, it traded 2,208,889 shares and had a high of 83.97. Assuming every share traded at that high the total $ value traded today would be $185.48 million. The real number is significantly less. The stock went up $3.44 today and the total shares outstanding are 127 million. The total market cap gained was $436 million. There is a gap of 256 million phantom dollars gained. That phantom money is actually real money though and why it isn't a zero sum game. Options and short interest wouldn't make up this gap either. Whoops should have read all the posts, but yea the post above mine illustrates this as well.
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Apr 15, 2010 03:12
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I can't wait for the music to stop as there are so many 2000 Nasdaq type level stocks out there right now. CRM and CREE to name two. When this irrational exuberance pops those pigs should get slaughtered, probably to the tune of 30% or more. I just don't get the love for those stocks when there are sub 10 P/FCF stocks like PWRD out there. TSL is essentially CREE and yet trades at only 20% of what CREE is valued at. Except of course TSL is nearly through the declining ASP period and still puts up better earnings. Eventually competitors will drive CREEs asps down and the chart will look at whole lot like WFR from 2007-2009.
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Apr 22, 2010 20:00
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MrBigglesworth posted:What the hell just happened? Are you really questioning a single down day after about 90 straight days of nothing but up days? Furthermore the problem with Greece is the same problem that sent the entire market down way back in 2008. But instead of American houses it is the debt of a few countries.
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Apr 27, 2010 16:53
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I think it might be the right time to lighten up on BIDU. Still even at $700 it is better than GOOG. I do think over $860 its a short though. TSL is the best solar in my opinion although the EURO is the biggest risk to the sector and I'd be worried should it start falling below 1.30.
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Apr 29, 2010 00:12
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Ultimately no one really benefits unless you're short RIG/BP. In the end the oil lost is a negligible amount of supply in the world market which is why you haven't seen crude fall a ton. Am I the only one who really likes down market days? Seeing the high beta stocks get crushed is exciting. Those jerks at schwab made CREE hard to borrow though, so I'm stuck maneuvering around my short position with options. Although a few more days like this and it will have hit my profit targets. At least CRM still has a way to go and it isn't hard to borrow so I can just add there when CREE is over. I also like SLG short here and WYNN.
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Apr 30, 2010 20:16
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Such a low volume index sell off, just like yesterday but in the reverse. Still 3 out of my 4 stock PIGS (CREE, CRM, SLG, WYNN) are down on average to strong volume, with SLG being the exception for whatever reason. I guess it might be looked at as an inflation hedge or something, but should things get bad this one will go back down to 7. I must admit I'm not all that intimate with the European debt situation but do these numbers look about right: Portugal 100 billion Ireland 200 billion Italy 600 billion Greece 150 billion Spain 280 billion Hungary 100 billion Romania 50 billion Bulgaria 50 billion Total 1.53 trillion euros If so you can see that one domino in Greece can lead to quite a significant problem and I doubt the 'healthy' members of the EU (Germany) could or would want to write that check.
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May 4, 2010 19:04
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Pretty funny to see what took a month to gain dissipate in a few days for the PIGS (WYNN, CRM, CREE, SLG). Guess buyers didn't have that much faith in them after all. If this sell off ends up like 2008 did, there are a ton of Chinese companies that should sell for extremely attractive levels that shouldn't see too much of a growth slowdown as long as they have high internal country sales. Even if growth does stall, they're already trading at depressed levels as is. PWRD and CYD as two examples.
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May 6, 2010 19:26
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Well we just had a recession and a recovery inside of an hour. My question is if any trades are going to get broken.
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May 6, 2010 19:55
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Haha all algo trading computers just got broken I think. Weird rear end spreads on everything as market orders entered during the 10 minute recession and recovery randomly print. Haha look at VYM, thinly traded stock went from 38 to .50, then to 41. Hit a 52 week low and 52 week high in the same hour. Jack fucked around with this message at 20:15 on May 6, 2010 |
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May 6, 2010 20:04
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They're too busy pumping 'cloud computing' and CRM. God I can't wait until someone gets fed up with the razor thin margins and pushes the sell button. Thing will fall 30% overnight. I'm hoping its this Thursday with earnings. I have my short all set from $88 and with a nice cheap $90 call option hedge thanks to the past 2 day sell off. Lose $1000 (+2k in unrealized gains) or gain $5000+ if it does what it should have done ages ago. Took FSLR only about half a year to get cut by $200 and CRM will trade in the 40s eventually too I'm sure.
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May 18, 2010 20:04
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By god I hope this is the beginning of the monster sell off in CRM to the 40s. I can't even begin to understand who decided they wanted that stock enough for it to lift off to where it did. All this while CYD trades below book value and almost at net cash on hand having an EPS in Q1 of CRMs FY 2011 EPS.
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May 20, 2010 21:17
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This market is scary overbought. How CRM, a company with 1.5 billion in yearly revenues, can add 1.3 billion in market cap in 2 days is a huge red flag to me. VMW is also getting real expensive.
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Jun 3, 2010 17:01
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My problem with CRM is 80% GM, 5% net margins. Terrible management and no effort to cut costs. While they have decent cash flow generation (and trade about 35-40x fcf) none of it appears to be going to shareholders. I just don't under the whole bid up growth at any cost. I mean if you have to spend 75% of your revenues to drive growth you need some obscene sustainable growth to ever improve the bottom line. I just don't see CRM being the 'GOOG' of cloud computing. They mostly cater to small/mid size companies, which will be some but definitely not a ton of the cloud computing market. IBM, SAP, ORCL all seem to be poised to take the majority share of the market in my opinion. If CRM can show that they can take a bunch of large enterprise contracts perhaps I'll change my tune, but until then what a bunch of unwarranted hype.
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Jun 4, 2010 18:45
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I think the trade of short us exporters, long strong eu exporters is a good bet with the euro free falling. Not really a daytrade idea but a quarter to quarter thing.
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Jun 7, 2010 14:44
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If a single oil spill can destroy a 200 billion company why would you even bother with oil. Nat gas seems like the better idea.
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Jun 9, 2010 20:39
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The point more being is if a mega cap can get killed off why bother taking the risk. As I remember there was a similar if not smaller spill in '89 involving another mega cap and I'm sure it won't be the last time. There is a chance this will all lead to alternative sources (ng) being promoted. But whatever. The energy industry as a whole doesn't appear all too interesting to me anyway right now. Especially if we are headed into more deflation.
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Jun 9, 2010 21:11
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This market is pretty funny. Consumer sentiment the best its been in years which leads to consumer retail spending being the lowest its been in nearly a year. I'd hate to see where a poor consumer sentiment would lead. With that said tech is insanely overbought. Almost laughable how they just keep repeating this cycle over and over. The nasdaq is going to end up looking like Q4 08/Q1 09 again. You think they'd have learned at barely a year and a half out. I also like how we've rallied based upon 'China growth' the past few days when the Chinese stocks are the cheapest thing out there by miles a lot of them trading at near liquidation prices and of course they're the ones yet to rally.
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Jun 11, 2010 16:02
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For those people who look at charts this looks almost exactly like what happened before the large drop in Q4 2008. Same absurd market caps too.
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Jun 15, 2010 19:31
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I think TSLA is going to remind people of BX as far as IPOs go. $1 billion for the hope that they can produce a product. Why people continue to buy hope is beyond me when they can buy actual results elsewhere.
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Jun 29, 2010 22:05
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If we're entering a deflationary period, which the market seems to be indicating, oil should be massacred. As far as safety goes, China is still set to grow and most of the U.S. listed Chinese ADRs trade incredibly cheap. Especially the ones that receive most their revenues from domestic (meaning sales in China) sales. Of course tech on the other hand is a giant bloated pig and I'd avoid the hell out of it. When you have SFSF with a $1.5 billion market cap, the nasdaq has a long long long way to go down. That whole cloud computing thing is like the solar and commodity bubbles.
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Jul 1, 2010 18:57
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I wouldn't touch anything until CRM sells back to the low 60s, VMW the 40s, and SFSF goes back to 11 or they come out in Q2 and Q3 and guide revenues way way higher for 2011.
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Jul 2, 2010 18:12
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Decline in free cash flow Q to Q for nflx. Which was pretty small to begin with. EV/market cap is reasonable though. Not like VMW or CRM which are pretty absurd and deserve to go down far more than NFLX does.
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Jul 21, 2010 21:52
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This cloud computing crap is a bubble if I ever saw one.
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Jul 23, 2010 19:12
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The overhead is instead just passed through to the cloud computing companies who instead have to maintain the servers. I didn't mean cloud computing as an idea itself is crap, but rather the stock prices of companies like SFSF, N, and CRM are quite rich from a revenue to market cap to total cloud computing market size perspective.quote:It's a bubble until a large corporation decides to switch thus making it "okay" for others to switch. The entire industry pretty much depends on whether they can get huge corporate customers or whether they'll be stuck with small businesses as customers. The problem isn't so much the large corporations deciding to switch, but to switch to the start up names like CRM, when they can go with the larger and more established megacap names like MSFT, ORCL so on and so forth that they probably already have business relationships with. I mean I don't doubt the future of cloud, I just doubt some of these cloud specific companies and the wild market caps they're getting based upon hope and hype. Also I'm not sold that large corporations will be that willing to join public clouds and that the cost of starting up their own private clouds might just make a lot of these cloud computing companies irrelevant. Jack fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Jul 23, 2010 |
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Jul 23, 2010 20:19
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To see how absurd these 'cloud computing' companies trade compare VECO's quarter to SFSF's quarter and realize they have nearly the same market cap. Specifically look at revenue for both. I stand by the fact these cloud companies are in a bubble. Well either that or VECO is a screaming buy.
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Jul 27, 2010 15:29
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I can't imagine what CRM has to report to stay trading where it does. SFSF reported what CRM should report, decent revs above consesus and guide up and they're off 15% or so in that period. CTCT another somewhat cloud computing company reported slighty less bullish numbers than SFSF mostly meeting guidance and they're off 15%. I have to finally get bearish on BIDU too though. $810 split adjusted, nearly 30 billion market cap. They have to double revenues every year out to 2013 just to catch up to that cap. Yet you have other Chinese companies trading at near cash levels while growing at similar rates. One can only hope facebook goes public at the 24 billion 'estimated' price from those private sale sites in 2011 as that will be a nice short too. Tech just seems to lead itself to overexuberance.
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Jul 30, 2010 19:24
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ESLRs production costs are like $2 Chinese guys are almost down to nearly $1 fully integrated. ESLR cannot compete. We're inflating to insane levels now. CRM and BIDU are adding a quarters worth of revenue each DAY to market cap now.
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Aug 4, 2010 20:44
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I wouldn't want to have a long position in BIDU if there's a serious threat of deflation and a slowdown in the world economy or if there's a quarter where they don't double revenue. The multiples advertising and advertising related companies receive is insane. Makes you wonder why anyone bothers to make anything when they can end up being worth more selling what other people make.
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Aug 4, 2010 21:18
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Fed once again takes steps to try and create another bubble economy. The funny part is now that the fed is super worried about deflation corporations will be too and put off the cap ex and hirings that everyone so desperately wants until they see evidence the fed program is working. Be pretty funny if China decided to start dumping tresuries. I don't think they quite have the domestic consumption yet to do that though.
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Aug 10, 2010 19:45
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BIDU at a 32 billion market cap is getting a bit pricey. Not that anything in the nasdaq could be considered anything else. I thought the nasdaq was bubbley back when CRM was 90. It's downright frothy here. NFLX and MELI are really the only momentum growth companies that I'd go long and feel somewhat comfortable in. MELI probably more so than NFLX.
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Sep 23, 2010 20:12
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Looks like they're all 'coincidentally' on days where the government releases important economic reports.
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Sep 28, 2010 17:15
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MELI doesn't really complete with goog/yhoo. They compete with EBAY/paypal and to a lesser extent MA/VISA. I believe they're the current leader with a 30% or so market share. Obviously competition would see that share erode, but I believe they have the management and current 'moat' to maintain their leadership. Still one has to be leary of the momentum growth stocks because one missed quarter or a market sell off can absolutely murder the stock. MELI has real thin volume and a low float too which means exaggerated moves in both directions. Still its market cap compared to the total market size it could serve is attractive compared to a lot of the other high beta guys out there.
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Sep 29, 2010 19:03
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At this rate most companies will start increasing their market caps by FY '10 and FY '11 revenues every day. BIDU already added about 66% of this and next years revenues to their market cap today. Just like the roaring nasdaq eyeball economy days.
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Oct 5, 2010 20:27
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There are circuit breakers on the way up both in the new stock pilot program and for commodity futures. The most recent 'limit up' was the genzyme takeover. I think it hit the breakers twice in one day.
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Oct 6, 2010 14:40
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It is funny no one bats an eye when these momentum stocks go up $5-$6 in a day. But you have one day where it goes down 2 days worth of gains and the sky is falling.
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Oct 6, 2010 19:22
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