Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Darkmage posted:

Now we're watching the EUR/USD here. Critical point. VERY tight stop and great R:R anything over 1.3690 is a buy. Stop @ 1.3675. Bullish 1 and 5 min. Going to push the hourly higher as well and show strength into the 8 CT close. COULD be a major bottom (Huge ATM)

Why do you talk like CNBC just gave you 10 seconds of air time.

# ¿ Feb 5, 2010 03:41

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 15:45

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Limit Up posted:

Well, you could always turn off your TV. I'll post up a chart for ya though to show what he's referring to. Hopefully that's ok. It better explains it

I know what he is talking about. I was talking about his phrasing and word choice.

# ¿ Feb 5, 2010 04:14

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Limit Up posted:

haha oh. Yeah the trading talk. I think he'll probably have to cut that crap out. Good point.

But here's a chart anyways.

Works pretty good.

Switched to a 5 min chart this was a VERY high probability trade using technical analysis.

*** The point is I know a lot of guys on here (based on the previous 700 page thread) were iffy about technical trading. Well this is just to show that if you feel like wasting several years of your life you can get pretty decent at it. *** It DOES work .

Doesn't always end up like this, but this was a REAL TIME example (albeit 1) of a profitable trade. So far +30 pips with a 15 pip stop. 2:1 risk reward. The post was at 7:41 Central Time.

You showed nothing in your picture or post. You just showed a chart and drew a circle around your entry and drew a line to where price is now. I dont doubt that you are up 30 pips but you didnt show any technical analysis. Why did you enter, why do you have a 15 pip trailing stop, where is your profit target?

Just so we are clear, I'm not looking for you to prove to me that TA works or whatever. I believe in pure forms of TA (SR, some trend line techniques, some candle patterns, etc).

# ¿ Feb 5, 2010 04:46

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Duey posted:

It's a gamble

As long as you realize you are gambling and not investing.

We should team up with PITR and make a "Gambling via the Market" thread.

# ¿ Feb 10, 2010 23:48

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

LactoseO.D.'d posted:

Metatrader 4 with an Alpari demo/feed is pretty standard.

Cant go wrong with that. I like FXpro's demo account (still mt4). It has tons of pairs, metals, and some stocks.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2010 00:41

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:

This is super-creepy. I kept expecting it to become obviously satire, but no, just kept on being creepy.

Way too laid back. The word "rad" should never be said by the interviewer.

# ¿ Feb 18, 2010 06:18

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Limit Up posted:

Currencies still showing it

Eh. Dont get me wrong, a 200ish pip move over a couple hours is a big deal no matter what. But it happens all the time. Pairs reacted this afternoon but have traded sideways for the most part since. London session will tell more but as of right now you couldnt even tell anything major happened just looking at the dailies.

Im not claiming to know what will happen tomorrow; I'm simply saying that currencies are not pointing (as of now) to a bloodbath that will be remembered for the rest of time.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2010 06:41

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Limit Up posted:

Horrible news A/H. Things are going to hit the fan tomorrow. Discount window raised and Fed Funds rate is next. Right at resistance too. They're hoping the news gets digested over the weekend to prevent further collapse. Whether it works we'll see Monday. Monday will be huge and if they want this rally going strong, they better have the printing presses going Monday.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10685007/1/stocks-higher-as-investors-shrug-off-fed-move.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

# ¿ Feb 19, 2010 19:15

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

UnmaskedGremlin posted:

With a 52 week high for F today, I wanted to stop by the second coming of the thread that I got pennystock FAQ'd out of a year and change ago and mocked endlessly for investing in the company I worked for, and knew would grow from the dollar and change it was selling at then. Just wanted to thank TraderStav for screaming how terrible an investment it was. Especially calling F a pennystock.

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2641737&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=208#post353539828

Thanks again!

You were not mocked endlessly. You got like two comments based on your post back then. No one said it was a terrible investment. Ford was a pennystock at the time. You yourself even said there is a chance it could go to 0.

It would be really different if you were in there explaining why you thought Ford was going to go up 600%. You simply said "it is down. I work for them. I am buying it."

But you are right, your portfolio is smokin! You should be working on Wall Street instead of Ford.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2010 20:18

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

I think the best thing to do is for everyone to pat him on the back and then move on. He will most likely experience the same "education" that most traders/investors go through. Look forward to this Method Loser...

Step 1: Think you know everything

Step 2: Lose

Step 3: Make excuses and go back to step 1

The goal is to really break the cycle, develop a system/methodolgy, and gain the discipline of a monk.

# ¿ Jul 23, 2010 04:55

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Josh Lyman posted:

If I wanted to get intraday currency prices for the past 2-3 years, where should I look? I would be willing to pay for this information.

Download MT4 from FxPro

# ¿ Dec 23, 2010 15:41

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Nifty posted:

Why would a gap like this have happened in something so heavily and continuously traded as EUR/USD? 30S chart. Around 10:30pm PST.

Looks like bad data on your end. I checked different feeds and I had a large bear candle.

# ¿ Feb 17, 2011 16:09

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Any suggestions on a strategy to hedge or profit from a downturn or flat market?

I have managed a pretty large portfolio for several years now and have always been long. Holding times are generally 1-3 years. I have done a few basic call/put options betting on earnings in the past, but no complex options. Even though the portfolio has done well, I feel crippled only knowing strategies to bet on growth. With a ton of uncertainty in the market, I dont know if going 100% long is the smartest thing.

I would like to figure out a strategy that protects my portfolio and icing on the cake would be to generate a couple extra percentage points at the end of the year. I am willing to put in the time to learn whatever the strategy might be, so it can be something more besides "buy deep out of the money puts."

Even suggestions of any books/courses would be appreciated.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2011 22:00

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Jack posted:

Bear etfs can offset your long book without having to actually short or use options; SDS being one example. Just remember you lose some NAV due to decay and fees if you hold for long periods of time and if you go with the 3x etfs they can show substantial decay.

This market looks as sick as I've seen it in a while. Looks like a lot of the hyper leveraged guys are sucking air right now. I suspect we see a bunch of liquidating soon like we saw in the Naz today only on a larger scale. There's just no way this up 50 ndx points on a gapup in the morning, sell off 100 in the afternoon then ramp up 50 points the hour into the close is going to end well.

Company specifics don't really seem to matter in this 99% correlated groupthink market that is gambling merely on whether banks are going to get bailouts from bigger government owned banks everyday. There's certainly nothing in the ec reports to lead me to believe there are rosier times ahead unless the Fed comes in with another few trillion for another LSAP to spread around to the gamblers.

I had a lot of similar thoughts today.

I knew short etfs had some decay to them, but what kind of time period are we talking. Im not looking to time any events or anything.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2011 22:30

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 15:45

whalesneedlove: Sep 27, 2003; An analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.

Plastic Jesus posted:

Short SPY calendars (i.e. short the nearer term/long the later-dated contracts at the same strike) have offered ridiculous returns for the last 6 weeks. They don't provide downside protection in case of a Lehman-like event (though any losses are capped), but you get 6 points movement in either direction while being long both vol and theta. Despite the epileptic moves the 115/116 levels are acting like magnets so those are the strikes I've been playing with. Tomorrow closes the quarter and the week, so it's likely to be a low-volume up day with a decent drop in volatility; if the VIX gets below 36 and SPY gets above 118 and less than 200M shares I'll probably put on the Oct/Nov 116 at the close.

If you wanted to be more conservative selling IWM or RUT call verticals isn't a terrible idea, nor is selling TLT put verticals as long as it stays above 115. If you have ample amounts of Scotch and Pepcid the SLV short Oct1 weekly/long Oct monthly @30 looks loving tasty.

Great information. I guess I will bust out Hull's book this weekend and brush up.

What's the reasoning with TLT staying above 115?

# ¿ Sep 30, 2011 17:48

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