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Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

ToastedZergling posted:

Right now I'm a bit over invested in my company's stock, due to going through 3 ESPP cycles w/o selling any shares. While I'm up a fair deal, I've been researching some other places I can put at least the 1st third.

I was contemplating high-yield dividend stocks, when using google screener I stumbled upon this one: NLY It's Dividend/Yield is a staggering 0.75/17.21. While I understand that if I were to invest in it now, I'd be lucky to get 17% yields, even if it only pushed out 10%, it'd still be better than the high-yield bond vanguard mutual fund I was looking at. Asides from the normal risks associated with being invested in a real estate / the stock market in general, can anyone tell me what caveats I might be overlooking?

Investing a big portion of your assets in any single stock is a really bad idea. Much of the movement of any stock is essentially random noise; you're getting a lot more volatility, but unlike the small-cap and value premium, it's uncompensated. In other words, it's more likely you'll see significantly lower return in the long term compared to a similar index fund. Simple explanation

Fuschia tude fucked around with this message at Feb 17, 2010 around 19:07

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Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Baddog posted:

Fuschia was wrong in stating that the expected return is lower from holding one stock versus a basket of similar stocks (I think probably over simplifying), but he's right in saying that you aren't being compensated for being more risky by investing in one vs a basket.
I didn't say the expected return is lower. I meant the chance you could see a significantly worse outcome is greater with fewer stocks, which is basically because the probability curve of potential outcomes is flatter.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

ayekappy posted:

Calling a top today.
People actually do this?

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

mcsuede posted:

They already have their own set top box, they're in Xbox, Wii, and I believe soon PS3 (people still have those?) and have struck deals with TV manufacturers to be included by default in the firmware of TV sets.

I've had the PS3 netflix disc for nearly 6 months.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Method Loser posted:

That's why I've only picked two relatively stable stocks in 2 weeks.
Yeah, and you put 20% of your bankroll in them. That's not how to properly hedge your bets. Even if you were completely right about the fundamentals, a lot of short-term stock movement (measured in anything less than years) is random, and news or jittery markets could completely wipe out any growth based on fundamental improvements.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Josh Lyman posted:

Most people can't beat the S&P.

A stock isn't people.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Jack posted:

The beginning of QE2 ladies and gentleman.

LIVE today!

Sort of sad to see AMZN get stopped in its tracks. If it can't go up here how will the nasdaq ever hit 5k again?

Without it?

Edit: Never mind You're right, 19% of QQQQ is pretty significant.

Double Edit: Wait, AMZN, not AAPL... What? That's just over 2%. I don't think it has such great growth prospects compared to higher proportion stocks in the index.

Fuschia tude fucked around with this message at Oct 22, 2010 around 17:11

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Pudgygiant posted:

It's horseshit that SIRI can report record earnings and Q3 subscribers, but just because one goddamn mongoloid analyst downgrades them from strong buy to buy it plummets

Considering analyst recommendations become out of date immediately, why don't they issue target prices? "I like this stock between $80 and $120/share," say?

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Arkane posted:

Somebody on this forum recommended URRE a while back (it was at like 75 cents). Having never bought a stock below a buck and against my better judgment, I bought 1k shares and completely forgot about it. To my amazement, it's at like 2.60 at the moment. Whoever that person was, any updated opinions on it?

Purely going by capitalization, that's a micro-cap stock, and it was a penny stock just a few months ago. I'd be real leery of a 666% run up in 4 months; that's massive volatility. If it had become any major proportion of my portfolio, I'd consider taking profits on most of it so I could still be exposed to potential upside (and as a good excuse to rebalance), but not be too vulnerable to a pullback.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Nifty posted:

I don't understand.. it's only even been in that range since July. How do you feel confident its going to continue a pattern like this?

A priori hoc, ergo post hoc.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Murgos posted:

It doesn't really what else I have in my portfolio. My shares of F are pretty much swamping everything else, over the last two years they went from being ~20% of my portfolio to ~85%.

I just hope I can pick the right time to sell.

Why not sell most of it now so you lock in the gains and still are exposed to some upside, but your portfolio isn't so ridiculously overweighted in it? Only holding (essentially) a single stock long-term is a really bad idea.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Free Gucci Mane posted:

I'm sure people have already talked about it in this thread, but how much of an effect is the WikiLeaks leak likely to have on the banking industry? Is now a good time to get out of financial stocks, or will the markets not be too shocked by the fact that some big companies are not 100% ethical?

I'm pretty sure the big financial meltdown happened in 2008. Most of those stocks are trading at near book value now.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

ayekappy posted:

he should be able to do that pretty easily if he learns to get out before major drops and get back in for cheaper.
Hmm, yes. If.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

pr0k posted:

T Boone Pickens thinks the DYN deal is going to fall through. I think he knows more than I do. Well maybe. He just bought into NOV and I've ridden that pony up from $30.

It is a pretty weird situation. They just had the last buyout fall through, and now Seneca Capital is playing the same role that Icahn was in the last attempt. I'm not sure why they're so obsessed with selling anyway, it seems pretty clear that this is just a temporary problem and if energy prices recover at all they'll quickly return to the health of a year or more ago. Icahn seems to be getting desperate to make this deal, they keep extending their tender offer again and again.

I bought DYN in mid-July last year, which happened to turn out to be pretty fantastic timing.

Side note, I wonder how often this sort of thing happens?

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

owDAWG posted:

There has been a lot of excitement around offshore drilling this week, especially in the GoM. Rising oil prices, worries about the Middle East, the Louisiana courts, and a Republican House are putting a lot of pressure on BOEMRE to start issuing deep-water permits soon. Even BOEMRE itself issued a statement saying we should start seeing these permits in the next few weeks.

Yeah, it's crazy, HERO is about to become my biggest non-ETF holding

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Pram posted:

Yeah, that first chart is hilariously misleading.

To be fair, ayekappy's chart only goes up to 2008.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Turkeybone posted:

I haven't heard anything about zynga being run by shady motherfuckers, so no I don't think it would be like groupon. They certainly make compelling little games, its a matter of valuation I guess.

Hmm yes besides this

Zynga CEO Marc Pincus posted:

I did every horrible thing in the book to, just to get revenues right away. I mean we gave our users poker chips if they downloaded this Zwinky toolbar which was like, I don't know, I downloaded it once and couldn’t get rid of it. *laughs* We did anything possible just to just get revenues so that we could grow and be a real business.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

tehschulman posted:

Can anyone here share their experiences using low-maintenance ETF investing sites like ING ShareBuilder and Betterment.com? ShareBuilder seems especially like the kind of investment product I'm looking for with its balance between letting you choose certain aspects of your trades and letting the site handle the rest of the work.

If there are similar sites out there to these products, I'd be interested in hearing about it. I could go wild on the market with a product like E-Trade but I like the more structured approach something like ShareBuilder seems to offer.

Sharebuilder has been pretty great for me, I've used them for years. Only thing is that if you use their automatic investing (which is the only way to get the $2 cost/trade) you can only buy on Tuesdays, at a Sharebuilder-selected time. Otherwise real-time trades (such as all sales) are $10 each.

But if you buy more often than you sell, and hold for the long term (years), that restriction is irrelevant, and they seem to work out cheaper for buying stocks than anyone else.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Tasty and Delicious posted:

I'm not 100% sure about dividends but I think they will provide payouts. If you have 100.123 shares you want to sell, your tell your broker to sell 100 and they'll eventually compensate you for the remaining .123. You can't buy/sell fractional shares directly.

ING/Sharebuilder lets me sell fractional shares. I can only sell all or none of my fractional shares, though; if I have 2.58 shares of something I can sell only 0.58, 1.00, 1.58, 2.00, or 2.58 shares of it. Plus, when I use their automated investment tool, I have to specify a dollar amount rather than a number of shares to buy, effectively allowing me to buy fractional shares as well.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Foma posted:

Why are people attracted to AMD, what a loser of a company, they have negative quarters much more often then positive ones, put out a poo poo chip, and now are trying to pivot into a new market, after having to buy out of their contract with a spin off that has failed their new singular purpose (making chips). I bought Intel @ 14.70 which was a really good price, I don't think I would even buy Intel at this point.

Yeah -- haven't their latest releases been so bad that they announced they were leaving the consumer market permanently?

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

I always tell people not to invest in an index but to invest in 6 or 7 great companies for the long-term.

Do you not believe in specific risk?

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Cheesemaster200 posted:

That's the whole point. Risk is going to be inversely related to return. Lower profits from diversification equal lower risk.

Uh, the most important feature of specific risk is that it is not a compensated risk. Lack of diversification increases your risk and the volatility of your returns without any commensurate increase in returns, unlike the size or growth effects. It's basically shooting yourself in the foot.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

snowcrafta posted:

Well if you like the company and you're thinking that a new release that's going to do better than analysts think, gamble away. I just bought more of ATVI because of Diablo iii, and remember that they have a lot of titles coming out this year (d3, Starcraft 2 expansion, new WoW expansion, and Black Ops 2), and all those titles look exceptionally good for sales.

Huh? There's no guarantee they're releasing an expansion this year. The single-player was only half finished last June and they haven't even started a closed multiplayer beta yet.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Baddog posted:

If nothing else, at least we all know now that the auditing companies are just charging for a rubber stamp. Even more useless than the rating agencies. I think all the Chinese ADR's had an 'audit' from one of the big four.

Didn't we know that a decade ago thanks to Enron et. al.?

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Smerdyakov posted:

I also burned my house down and lost 90% of my portfolio before I sort of figured them out.

Could elaborate on this? How did you manage to lose 90% of your portfolio -- or did you just mean 90% of tho value of your option holdings?

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:

Thought this was cool. From PragCap:



Is that calculated peak to trough?

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Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER

MrBigglesworth posted:

I manually got out of TSLA at 212 from 61 instead of letting my trailing limit work as I used to.

Past 3 times I was in Telsa there was always a large pullback that dumped me out with my trigger. The one time I decide to not let it ride and Im out $38/share profit on top of what I already had. Oh well, hindsight and all, still a healthy gain!

I never understand why people don't use staggered trailing stops, rather than selling 100% of their position. Are people that locked into boolean thinking?

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