here is something that i think is so simple, but the math escapes me.
given 2 choices, which is the better one.
1) doing something that has a 1% chance to win 5 times
2) doing something that has a 5% chance to win ONE time
For the 5x above, each chance is 'reset', so its not like you are drawing tickets and lowering the total number each time. Each pull is exactly a 1% chance.
maths tells me they should be equal, but doesn't the fact you are doing one multiple times factor in?
|# ¿ Sep 8, 2010 15:20|
|# ¿ May 19, 2013 21:43|
each 1% shot is its own unique event. There is no information passed to subsequent chances.
i see where the 4.9% overall is coming from, but doesn't that assume each outcome is gathered with another? is not 1-.99^1,2...5 its simply 1 each time.
it might be me wrongly assuming they *should* be tied together. so, simply put:
1 win, 99 no win balls
5 win, 95 no win balls
you can pull form hat 1 5 times(and put the non-wins back in) or pull from hat 2 once. What do you choose to do ?
|# ¿ Sep 8, 2010 15:51|