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Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Lunael posted:

Yeah, it is. Day 2 is draft.

But seriously, not a single Island in any of the unbeaten decks.

It's pretty dire, yeah. When I open my Sealed decks, I always start by looking at my blue and green cards, just because I can eliminate them from contention so often. (Next I look at Infect cards, because those get instantly eliminated as well, like 80% or more of the time.)

It's funny that the very first Scars Sealed deck I ever played was some insanely powerful Infect build that went 4-0... and that was also my last good Infect deck in Sealed. I tried building Infect one more time, when my pool kinda-sorta supported it, and went 2-2. Infect needs a ton of specific stuff to support it, and if any of it is missing, the deck is just bad. (If you do have everything you need, though, it's probably the best deck.)

Ashenai fucked around with this message at 09:34 on Oct 31, 2010

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Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Karnegal posted:

Gee, it sounds like when some of us said that there was a lot more luck involved in sealed than other formats. This sure seem to back up my argument that given a large pool of players the top decks will be the ones with the good pools.

That makes no sense. I see you're very invested in your theory that Sealed is about luck, but the strength of certain colors has precisely zero to do with how luck-based a format is. In Torment, black was far more powerful than the other colors (by design,) and that didn't make the format any more (or less) luck-based.

In Scars, if you have a strong pool, your best deck is likely to be heavy white-red. If you have a weak pool, your best deck is still likely to be heavy white-red. This certainly isn't great for color variety in Sealed, but it has nothing to do with how luck-based it is.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Karnegal posted:

I see you're very invested in in your theory that the format you seem to claim the most skill in not the most effected by luck.

I didn't claim the most skill in Sealed, I think I'm about equally good in Sealed and Draft.

I also rock face in Momir Basic, but I'm not about to claim it's a very skill-based format (although it's not purely luck.)

quote:

The color distribution of the top decks proves that certain pools are significantly stronger than others and those without good cards in those colors are at a clear disadvantage.

"If you have a weak pool, your best deck is still likely to be heavy white-red." Who gives a gently caress, in what world do you think that opening a weak W/R pool is going to get you past several players of equal skill with a strong W/R pool?

How do you not put 2 and 2 together. You do know that the cards in a sealed pool are random? As in, any single pool can have a crazy distribution. If, you've played a lot of sealed, certainly you've had Scars pools where there are 3 white cards and 4 red ones and 6 of them suck. So where's your R/W? Oh you don't have any? So I guess you're not playing R or W, but it seems that given a large playing field all of the top decks have R and or W? Oh poo poo! I'm sure that all the good players opened the R/W and that the people whose pools were disproportionately U were all just bad players and not people who were playing at a disadvantage from deck construction.

I don't understand how you seem to think that the format where you have the least influence on the cards you can play while other people are simultaneously getting better cards is not the format most effected by luck. You keep making this stupid argument that skill wins out, but that only applies with a significantly different level of skill. If you take two players with 2000 limited ratings and give one a lovely pool and the other a good poll, which one are you going to bet on? Here let's let the skill slide a little for you, 1950 and a good pool, 2000 and a poo poo pool. Who wins most of the time?

Sure, in your 8 man sealed event on MTGO you can outplay people, but those mean about jack poo poo in competitive magic. In the events that I've clearly been talking about in my earlier posts, any PTQ or higher level event (at least in places that get real attendance and aren't in bumble-gently caress Alaska), there are enough people and enough rounds that there will be sufficient good players with good pools that good players with bad pools are not going to top 8.

If it were all about skill you wouldn't see people like Shuuhei Nakamura going 1-2 drop in GP's against people who are significantly less skilled then they are.

You gave a lot of arguments for luck playing a part, which I never disputed. I also think Draft is generally more skill-intensive than Sealed. I'm just saying Sealed is generally more skill-testing than most Constructed formats. My opinions appear to be shared by most pros who have given an opinion on the subject, and by Magic R&D, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're correct.

If you're really interested in the answer to this question, what you'd need to look at is the percentage of previous winners vs. first-timers in the top 8 of various formats. If a format keeps having new people in the top 8's, it's probably more luck based. If it keeps putting proven pros in the top 8, it's probably more skill based.

Looking at this over various formats could probably give us real answers as to which formats are more skill-based. I think the results would bear me out, but this doesn't really interest me enough to actually crunch the numbers. If you feel passionately about it, look into it, I guess.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Retcon posted:

Yeah, looking at the cards that got passed and your comments makes me think that drafting Infect was the right thing to do.

I'm becoming convinced that Infect is the best deck in draft, by a lot. Even my half-assed Infect decks almost always seem to make the finals (and a lot of the time, my opponent in the finals also happens to be playing Infect.) Obviously it has to be at least somewhat open, but if it is, I beeline for it every time.

quote:

I just have this irrational fear that if I take Infect cards early, the Infect cards will stop coming in and I'm stuck with a 50/50 pool.

The opposite is actually true. By jumping on Infect cards early, you'll cut the guy to your left, making it more probable that you'll get all the Infect goodies in pack 2. If you're scared to commit, you could accidentally put the guy on your left into Infect, and by the time you decide to take infect cards, it's too late.

Obviously, sometimes you get cut from the right, and maybe you have to abandon 2 or even 3 of your early picks. I think the risk is definitely worth it, though.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Sigma-X posted:

I think infect creatures go something like this, in pick order:

Skithyrix, Tangle Angler, Plague Stinger, Cystbearer, Necropede, Ichorclaw Myr, Contagious Nim, Corpse Cur, Tel Jilad Fallen, Blight Mamba, Carrion Call, Black Cleave Goblins, Trigon of Contagion.

You left out Hand of the Praetors (position is pretty obvious though,) and Ichor Rats (not nearly so obvious.)

Anyway, HERE is Kazuya Mitamura's Infect pick order, it matches yours fairly well, except for Contagious Nim.

I like how you both left off Vector Asp though. :xd:

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
Yeah, Tangle Angler gives me fits every time I see him. He's so annoying to play against, because he does everything. He plays defense, he picks off my dudes, and then he makes like a Prized Unicorn for the lethal alpha strike. And that's just as-is; put any kind of Equipment on him and he's downright silly.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Yawgmoth posted:

Dispense Justice is also really fantastic for WX metalcraft. Two attackers for 3 mana typically eats at least one good creature.

I dislike Dispense Justice, although I'l play it if I get it. It just gets so much worse against good players.

I do like how it's also actually pretty hard to use: a lot of the time, the right call is to wait until the Combat Damage step, after all the creatures have dealt damage and some attackers have been traded off, and then play it. I very rarely see people figure out that play, though.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

vertiginominal posted:

A drafting mulligan question:

I drafted B/G infect. Game 1, my opening hand had 2 forests and 0 swamps, but with 1 swamp I could have played all my spells, so I kept it, but didn't get a swamp the rest of the game and lost.

Game 2, my opening hand had 2 swamps and 0 forests; reacting to the last game, I mulliganed, got a 0-land hand, then got a 4-swamp hand (and lost).

What is the actual correct policy for a 2-swamp or 2-forest hand in this case (assuming a couple spells are playable with those 2 lands)?

edit: my deck has 8 swamps and 9 forests.

The information you've given is not enough to determine if you should have mulliganed. There are two swamp hands you can keep, and two swamp hands you need to mulligan. Whether you're going first or second is also a huge factor.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

vertiginominal posted:

Sorry, I suspected that might be the case. Here's what the hand was:

2x Forest
Sylvok Lifestaff (1)
Tumble Magnet (3)
Necropede (2)
Necrogen Scudder (2B)
Tainted Strike (B)
Tel-Jilad Fallen (2GG)

And I was playing second.

I keep this hand, this isn't even close for me. Sucks that you got manascrewed, but I think you made the right decision regardless. If you were going first, this would be a much harder decision. I probably still keep, though.

quote:

Could you elaborate on why whether you're going first makes a big difference?

Hands with good cards but sketchy mana are much more keepable on the draw, because you get an extra card. For instance, with the hand you posted, if you're going first and you draw two non-lands, you can't cast that Tumble Magnet of turn 3. Going second, you get three chances to draw that land.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Pretty Hat Machine posted:

I learned a valuable lesson last night. If you draft W/r Metalcraft, don't forget the W.

Yeah, I have this problem a lot. Most of the time, I can pick up good artifacts and red Metalcraft stuff fairly easily, but the Glint Hawks and Sunchasers are really the glue that holds a winning metalraft deck together, and they go early, real early :(

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
You can make a pretty neat flip-flop with two Glimmerpoint Stags.

I mean, it doesn't do anything but I'd be pretty intimidated sitting on the other side of that.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
There are definitely way more than two archetypes, but I have to agree that Scars draft is a bit disappointing, especially after RoE. I still enjoy Sealed quite a bit, though.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

atastypie posted:

At what point should I just drop from a PTQ sealed if I'm trying to top8? Losing 2 games? 1?

If you go X-1, you're definitely making top 8. If you go X-2, you probably won't, especially if you lose the 2 matches early on (because your tiebreakers will be way worse.) X-3 has no chance at all, ever.

Definitely don't give up after 1 loss, definitely do give up after 3. If you lose 2, then you're probably not making it, but there's always a small chance.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
I think that deck could have been quite decent, actually, but when your only removal is Fume Spitter, Instill Infection, and two Sylvok Replicas, there's an awful lot of things you just instantly roll over to.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

And My Fax! posted:

What do you guys think of Painful Quandary as a p1p1? Is it something that could be considered a bomb, or something that could be passed in favor of powerful removal or uncommons, like Arrest or Skinrender?

I ask because a friend of mine thinks it's a windmill slam, whereas I've never seen it used to any great effect in draft games. Thoughts?

Painful Quandary is unplayable dreck. Here is LSV picking up a 10th pick Quandary (pack 3 of an 8-4 draft) and not playing it, despite having some pretty bad cards and playing black.

Vidmaster posted:

It's great against aggro decks that empty their hands immediately

The last thing you want to play against an aggro deck that empties its hand immediately is a 5-drop that doesn't deal with their threats and doesn't affect the board.

Ashenai fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Dec 30, 2010

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
I don't remember having too many Infect decks where I had the luxury of not running Blackcleave. Infect creatures are few and precious, and yeah it's the worst one after Vector Asp, but unless it's been underdrafted as hell, you really want to run every Infect creature you can get your hands on.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

MizuZero posted:

You joked about it earlier, but this is legitimately what happened. You wasted almost an entire pack dithering about because you opened the angel pack two and almost immediately forgot how to draft, taking a bunch of guys with double white in their casting costs and really stretching your mana. If you were going to do infect, you shouldn't have half-assed it, and if you were going to try to ramp into fatties, you shouldn't have half-assed that, either. If you were going to try to metalcraft, you could've picked up more than seven playable artifacts (two of which cost five). Pack two was where you went wrong. Take the Angel, just don't immediately take white cards because you know you're playing white. It's an artifact set, take good artifacts instead.

Very well put. Also, I'm pretty sure I'd take Tick over Skyguard even if I was monowhite.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Karandras posted:

Why all the Zendikar hate? I heard about Tom Martell's 49 game losing SoM streak and was discussing it on Twitter and he says that even SoM isn't as bad as Zendikar

oh my opponent went first and played a Plated Geopede T2 okay gg

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

TheGame posted:

Most beginners don't play 8-4 because they have a lower chance of making it to the finals. 8-4 payouts are only higher than others if you have a 50% chance of winning -and- can buy in repeatedly without a guaranteed win.

This is totally reasonable, which is why beginners should play Swiss v:shobon:v

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
So is ME4 limited any good, or is it all about who gets to assemble the Urzatron first?

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

snyprmag posted:

There is no enchantment removal in ME4, so Island Sanctuary seems like it can ruin a lot of decks.
One should main-deck their Flying Carpets (at least 1) unless they have a lot of fliers.

Are you sure? It seems very marginal even without the drawback. Giving a creature flying is rarely worth a card (see also: Bladed Pinions,) and this costs a boatload of mana to boot.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

mango sentinel posted:

Don't draft infect!

Don't draft at all, the judges will notice and disqualify you from the Sealed tournament :(

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
I actually haven't decided yet. They both look pretty fun! Leaning a tiny bit towards Phyrexian just because I enjoy Proliferate shenanigans so much.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
Glint Hawk Idol was the only one that really surprised me. I know it's good, I just didn't know it was that good. And I would have expected Plague Stinger to make the top 10, too. And possibly Turn to Slag.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Gerund posted:

Is MBS going to have the same density as Scars for artifacts? Especially stupid cheap trinkets?

Commons are usually spoiled later, because, well, they tend to be boring. I'm very sure there will be plenty of common artifacts.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Imaduck posted:

Sort of, but you're drawing two cards for every one card they draw, meaning their Sphinx will then trigger twice. If they then use it, you can then get 4 draws, and so on. It adds up pretty darn fast.

They're all "may" effects, and they're all only two at a time. So bugsy is, in essence, correct. It doesn't really matter how fast they add up, that just means you'd (theoretically) have to go "no I still don't want to draw two more" a bunch more times when you're done.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
Massacre Wurm kind of pisses me off with how much of a savage beating it is. Like, Grave Titan was usually game over, but if you had a Pacifism you could come back from it. Ditto for Carnifex, but for Arrest (or Turn to Slag, if the caster didn't have BB handy.) But with Massacre Wurm, you're just instantly screwed so bad. Like, he'd still be a first-pick quality spell if he died immediately and just did his CiP effect, like a nastier Marsh Casualties. But hey you get a 6/5 body and a continuous effect too WHY NOT.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Chajusong posted:

Probably not. Unless you have 2+ in your opening hand (and really, who wants to draft infinitevectorasps.dec?), a 0 cost Vector Asp plays exactly the same as a 1 cost Vector Asp.

Er, a 0 cost Vector Asp would be strictly superior to Memnite. It would definitely be played. In Kuldotha Red instead of infect, but played :v:

edit: argh, missed that this was the Limited thread. Nah, 0 cost Vector Asp would still be unexciting, and still one of the worse Infect creatures.

Ashenai fucked around with this message at 11:11 on Feb 9, 2011

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Lunael posted:

Define excited, and if you meant folks hatin' in the thread here do post where!

Bloodshot Trainee is at worst 2/3 for 4, at best repeatable, big removal. Training Drone is at worst completely dead card, at best mana-efficient hitter with good abilities. There's quite a difference between the two, I wouldn't make too much comparisons.

Yeah, if you do draw your equipment, Training Drone is "2 mana discount on my generic fatty! :woop:", while Bloodshot Trainee is a retardedly powerful effect that can singlehandedly win most games.

And of course, if you don't draw your equipment, then Training Drone sits there looking stupid, while Trainee is still an acceptable, if weak, dude.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

TheGame posted:

Wow, I just checked out the prize payouts. I'd heard people complaining about terrible prerelease rewards, but this is pretty ridiculous. 16-player Swiss with a 10-pack 1st place and then massive losses for everyone else? Sign me up!

That's really sad, I'd been looking forward to doing a big sealed thing.

Prerelease prizes are always this insanely bad. If you wanna play in them, you'll have to accept that each one will cost you a healthy chunk of tix that you have little to no chance of winning back.

Hold out for Release events, if you can; weirdly, Release events actually have a better payout than even regular events of the same type. Release weeks are the correct time to get your Limited on :dance:

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
It's like I always say, it's not about what cards you open for your Sealed deck, it's all about how you build it, with suble decisions to be made about manabases and card synergies.





This is the proest way to do it. Take notes fellas.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Buffis posted:

Why the hell does people only play ME4 Swiss and not 8-4?
I hate the swiss queue, but it's the only one seeing action.

Most of the good players (the ones who are up for 8-4 action) are less interested in formats that have no real-world tournament relevance.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

GottaPayDaTrollToll posted:

Has there ever even been a good triple small set draft format?

Nope. Coldsnap was WotC's attempt at making one, and we all know how that turned out.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

mango sentinel posted:

Why did RoE end up being a big set?

Because WotC learned their lesson and understood that small sets suck for triple-set draft, which is what they wanted to do with RoE.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.
I'd be tempted to go UR Goodstuff Control. You have so many cards in those colors that give you card advantage, you just end up with inevitability if you survive long enough. Except, uh, no high-power removal, so I guess any bomb crushes you v:shobon:v

Yeah, it's not a great pool. It is quite an interesting one, though.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Lunael posted:

For fucks sake! Second Sealed in a row where MTGO shits on me. I'm on the verge of winning round 3, match 3, pass priority to attack and opponent timer starts ticking down. I assume he's away or something, dick around for close to ten minutes, and then chat starts warning me I should log out and back just in case it's showing wrong on my end and I'm actually the one who's losing to inactivity in minute. I immediately close and relog, but the two minutes that takes is enough to timeout and drop me from the tournament.

Apparently pretty common thing for MTGO to do, at least according to those I asked, but personally haven't run into it once in close to two years of playing...

Yeah, everyone gets caught by this once. Ask for compensation, you'll get it, no trouble.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Lunael posted:

Looks like there was bunch of new stats with the lates MTGO personal summary:

Top 10 first pick common cards chosen by 8-4 SOM Block Draft winners
1. Burn the Impure
2. Divine Offering
3. Spread the Sickness
4. Blightwidow
5. Leonin Skyhunter
6. Ichor Wellspring
7. Rot Wolf
8. Blisterstick Shaman
9. Fangren Marauder
10. Virulent Wound

Top three is pretty much usual suspects.

Leonin Skyhunter is surprisingly high.

Personally I'm going :monocle: at Ichor Wellspring. I realize it fits in a bunch of decks, I just didn't think it was remotely first pick quality.

The format is really new, though, I think those ranking are still going to end up moving around a lot.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

MrBling posted:

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of MBS boosters people will be picking the rare or uncommon because they're just so powerful, so saying ichor wellspring is number 6 on the list of commons first picked probably just meant that some boosters are really underwhelming. Or someone really wants the furnace celebration deck.

But it also means there are apparently only 5 commons that are generally worth picking over Ichor Wellspring. It means if you see a Blisterstick or a Fangren Marauder and an Ichor Wellspring in the pack, and no awesome rares or uncommons, you'll probably do better picking the Wellspring. Personally, I would have picked the other two cards without even thinking about it (or even registering the Wellspring as a legit option), but I guess I'll re-evaluate.

Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Worm? posted:

Has there been any official or unofficial word from WotC on league play returning...ever?

Yeah, they say leagues were too resource-intensive. They do want to bring them back, but they need to fix some of the infrastructure so it won't be a problem.

They've been saying this for a long-rear end time now, though, so I dunno.

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Ashenai
Oct 5, 2005

You taught me language;
and my profit on't
Is, I know how to curse.

Worm? posted:

Ok... so I'm playing a draft tonight. I draft a pretty decent infect deck. However, there are a lot of different interactions and choices, and I'm not the fastest player. So we get down to the third game, and I am playing as fast as I can so time doesn't run out. I have that 3/1 infect guy out with protection from artifacts, and all he has is a couple artifact creatures. At this point there is only a minute or two left and I am furiously hitting f2/f6 trying to finish.

Suddenly the guy starts spamming me with trade invites. I have to cancel the invite every time and before I can figure out that I can block him, time runs out on me and I lose.

I'm sure the guy is a blast to play paper magic with.

:rage:

Definitely report him, he should not get away with that. Also, there's a decent chance you'll get your entry fee back.

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