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pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Brown Moses posted:

Maliha, Damascus got hit by the government tonight, some of the injuries are very much of the "how did they survive that" type injury, especially the first guy in this video. Very :nms:

That first injury... probably not a survivable wound, at least I hope not...

Something I've been wondering about the Kfar Zita attacks- what elements of the Syrian Army are engaged in that area? Are barrel bombs constructed in the local area of operations, or are they coming from somewhere else? Is there any kind of industrial infrastructure that would allow for easy access to chlorine gas?

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Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

What, may I pray-tell, is the first injury? :ohdear:

I don't want to actively look into this but my curiosity is piqued.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Dude with half of his face caved in.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Guy's missing half his face and half of his left leg.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

suboptimal posted:

Dude with half of his face caved in.

Ah. I've seen the people who've survived something like that. I watched a thing about a woman who got shot in the face with a shotgun, destroying both eyes and her nose, and how they've made a prosthetic face for her and folks like her.

I'm fairly certain that guy probably isn't going to survive that wound, given the declining level of medical care in Syria.

Lead Psychiatry
Dec 22, 2004

I wonder if a soldier ever does mend a bullet hole in his coat?
If he's going to die it looks like it'd be more because of that nasty leg wound. I think the only reason he didn't bleed out is cause it looks like the popliteal artery is possibly still intact. The facial trauma looks like it only took off the nose, and maybe destroyed the eyes and sockets but can't really tell.

thepaladin4488
Oct 28, 2010

Brown Moses posted:

More horrible from Syria, it appears the trapped fighters in Homs broke out of their area, then captured and slaughtered some Assad "militias". Videos and pictures have been posted, showing decapitated heads, rows of corpses with their hands tied, a head on a pole, and various other horrible stuff.

Do these get saved anywhere? All links are dead already.

And with that other video, it's almost like "gently caress, do you even want to survive with those types of injuries..." :(

thepaladin4488 fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Apr 20, 2014

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Mans posted:

I think it would be easier to live a year in Antarctica than living a year in Homs.

How it's still a point of contention is shocking. There's probably nothing of worth there other than endless piles of rubble and corpses.

AllofSyria.txt

Then again there could be areas that are surprisingly intact, sort of like when a tornado goes to town. Wasn't there some group doing studies of satellite photos to determine how much of Syria that has been reduced to rubble?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Young Freud posted:

Ah. I've seen the people who've survived something like that. I watched a thing about a woman who got shot in the face with a shotgun, destroying both eyes and her nose, and how they've made a prosthetic face for her and folks like her.

I'm fairly certain that guy probably isn't going to survive that wound, given the declining level of medical care in Syria.

A lot of those people survive, they just don't get prosthetic faces, and it heals how it heals. It's awful.

Homura and Sickle
Apr 21, 2013

Mans posted:

I think it would be easier to live a year in Antarctica than living a year in Homs.

How it's still a point of contention is shocking. There's probably nothing of worth there other than endless piles of rubble and corpses.

So is there basically any chance of the rebels winning this war at this point, or is it probably just going to be a long(er), brutal, pointless slog towards maintaining the political status quo?

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

Jagchosis posted:

So is there basically any chance of the rebels winning this war at this point, or is it probably just going to be a long(er), brutal, pointless slog towards maintaining the political status quo?

Still 50/50 who could win this. In a brutal civil war like this, the will and determination of the fighting parties is the most important thing on determining when the fighting will stop. Essentially, if either the rebels or the regime suffer a collapse following a huge, strategically important loss, then we could say who is winning with some certainty. Right now, it's still a stalemate. Everytime someone makes gains, it turns out the other side also makes gains somewhere else. As long as both sides think they can win, the war continues.

Homura and Sickle
Apr 21, 2013

Libluini posted:

Still 50/50 who could win this. In a brutal civil war like this, the will and determination of the fighting parties is the most important thing on determining when the fighting will stop. Essentially, if either the rebels or the regime suffer a collapse following a huge, strategically important loss, then we could say who is winning with some certainty. Right now, it's still a stalemate. Everytime someone makes gains, it turns out the other side also makes gains somewhere else. As long as both sides think they can win, the war continues.

That's very interesting to hear, actually. I've periodically checked in on this thread for a while (I stopped actively checking it after the U.S. accidentally avoided intervening in Syria) and I've only seen bad news for the rebels. What would be a decisive turning point for either side? Aleppo falling? al-Assad being carbombed?

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
As long as you've got Russia and Iran pouring money and military aid into the Assad regime and Saudi Arabia and Qatar doing the same for the rebel groups, then the conflict could continue almost indefinitely.

http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/how-long-will-syrias-civil-war-last-its-really-hard-to-say/

quote:

According to studies of intra-state conflicts since 1945, civil wars tend to last an average of about seven to 12 years. That would put the end of the war somewhere between 2018 and 2023.

Worse, those studies have identified several factors that tend to make civil wars last even longer than the average. A number of those factors appear to apply to Syria, suggesting that this war could be an unusually long one. Of course, those are just estimates based on averages; by definition, half of all civil wars are shorter than the median length, and Syria’s could be one of them. But, based on the political science, Syria has the right conditions to last through President Obama’s tenure and perhaps most or all of his successor’s.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

Jagchosis posted:

That's very interesting to hear, actually. I've periodically checked in on this thread for a while (I stopped actively checking it after the U.S. accidentally avoided intervening in Syria) and I've only seen bad news for the rebels. What would be a decisive turning point for either side? Aleppo falling? al-Assad being carbombed?

I think if the rebels could take and hold on to Damascus, the regime would collapse pretty fast. At that point the regime's options would be essentially:

1. Retake the city at all costs.
2. Retreat to the coastal territory still in Assad's hand.

If the regime's forces can't do either, they're finished and will simply disintegrate. For Assad to achieve victory it's a lot harder, since his enemy is a group of various military forces only barely acting under a unified command. I guess to win he has to destroy at least all the important ones. Or hope they fall into one final, fatal case of infighting.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

British Jihadist Rayat al-Tawheed talk about "Five Star Jihad" in this English language video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_u9bPDcjug

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

This video is from activists from Hama is a short film on the recent chlorine barrel bomb attacks. Arabic only, but it seems like it would be worth translating as soon as possible

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2-hbpc3c34

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

That last page, 1390, has gotta be one of the more war-crime heavy/gruesome pages I've seen so far. Goddamn this terrible war.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Assad went to Maalula today:

quote:

Syrian President Bashar Assad on Easter Sunday visited the ancient Christian town of Maalula, which his troops recently recaptured from rebels, state television said.

"On the day of the resurrection of Christ, and from the heart of Maalula, President Assad hopes all Syrians have a happy Easter, and for the reestablishment of peace and security throughout Syria," the channel announced in a caption at the bottom of the screen, without showing images of the visit.

It added that Assad had inspected the Mar Sarkis (Saint Sergius and Bacchus) monastery, damaged in recent fighting. It said the damage had been caused by "terrorists," using the regime's term for rebels.

Founded in the fifth century, the monastery is one of the Middle East's oldest. It is dedicated to two Roman Christian soldiers who were killed by emperor Galerius because of their faith.

The Facebook page of the Syrian presidency posted a picture of Assad standing next to a Christian priest. He held what appeared to be damaged friezes showing the Virgin Mary and Jesus Christ.

Backed by Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah, Syria's army took control of Maalula last Monday.

Located north of Damascus, Maalula is one of the world's oldest Christian settlements, and its inhabitants still speak Aramaic, the language of Christ.

Rebels and their jihadist ally Al-Nusra Front had taken control of Maalula in early December. They kidnapped 13 nuns and traded them for women prisoners held in regime jails in March.

Assad has rarely made public appearances since the outbreak of a revolt against his regime in March 2011.

Syria's large Christian minority has sought neutrality throughout the three-year war, and has viewed the Sunni-led rebels with growing concern as jihadists have flocked to their ranks.

I know he's been to other areas that have been recaptured by the military (like Baba Amr in mid-2012), but it's pretty interesting that he already went to Maalula on account of how heavy the fighting was.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



It's a good public relations move, he's purposely trying to present himself as a protector of religious minorities against jihadi terrorists. That's also why the regime highlighted the murder of that Dutch priest a while back.

Tardigrade
Jul 13, 2012

Half arthropod, half marshmallow, all cute.

Phlegmish posted:

It's a good public relations move, he's purposely trying to present himself as a protector of religious minorities against jihadi terrorists. That's also why the regime highlighted the murder of that Dutch priest a while back.

It's kind of his main selling point. All the Christians I know are 100% in support of Assad, primarily because he did manage to keep minorities unpersecuted. That and the media is playing up the brutality of the rebels and "if they win you'll all be slaughtered".

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
The Egyptian presidential elections are going forward next month with only two candidates: Abdelfattah al-Sisi and Hamdeen Sabbahi. Yay democracy.

Bastaman Vibration
Jun 26, 2005

Ham posted:

The Egyptian presidential elections are going forward next month with only two candidates: Abdelfattah al-Sisi and Hamdeen Sabbahi. Yay democracy.

What's the expected outcome for Sabbahi? Any quasi-credible polling data? I remember him from the first elections as a pretty decent guy, but I'm under no illusions. Is it possible the authorities would allow him to pull off a respectable (or even close) defeat? Or is he just a punching bag?

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

Libluini posted:

Still 50/50 who could win this. In a brutal civil war like this, the will and determination of the fighting parties is the most important thing on determining when the fighting will stop. Essentially, if either the rebels or the regime suffer a collapse following a huge, strategically important loss, then we could say who is winning with some certainty. Right now, it's still a stalemate. Everytime someone makes gains, it turns out the other side also makes gains somewhere else. As long as both sides think they can win, the war continues.

It will probably be 50/50 forever. No one really wants this conflict to end because it means one of the parties involved wins, and no one really likes any of the parties involved that much.

The solution to this is to hand out small quantities of whatever munition counters the advantage of the party who currently has the upper hand, but nothing that will give a decisive advantage and risk blowback onto the sponsors, and to let the conflict grind Syria down to a fine paste.

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 22:29 on Apr 20, 2014

Hefty Leftist
Jun 26, 2011

"You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."


Jagchosis posted:

So is there basically any chance of the rebels winning this war at this point, or is it probably just going to be a long(er), brutal, pointless slog towards maintaining the political status quo?

It'll probably resemble El Salvador with a truce after another 10 years. Of course, we all said that about Libya and that fell apart in a month for Gaddafi.

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 10 hours!

Paul MaudDib posted:

The solution to this is to hand out small quantities of whatever munition counters the advantage of the party who currently has the upper hand, but nothing that will give a decisive advantage and risk blowback onto the sponsors, and to let the conflict grind Syria down to a fine paste.

I'm not even disagreeing that this is what some people who have the means to make this happen believe, but really, what then?

All they're left with is a smoking, cratered wasteland with no standing infrastructure, but hordes of hungry, angry, radicalized people. It's not like there will be a last man standing. Is indefinite conflict really sustainable?

OwlBot 2000
Jun 1, 2009

The Protagonist posted:

Is indefinite conflict really sustainable?

Ask Somalia or Central Africa.

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

OwlBot 2000 posted:

Ask Somalia or Central Africa.

This is a depressing way to start my Monday, because it's spot on. :smith:

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

Chokes McGee posted:

This is a depressing way to start my Monday, because it's spot on. :smith:

What's worse is people seeing it as "the solution". As long as the Them are contained and limited to killing each other, it's business as usual!

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

Muffiner posted:

What's worse is people seeing it as "the solution". As long as the Them are contained and limited to killing each other, it's business as usual!

What gets me is the utter nihilism of it all. Everyone's killing everyone, both sides are funded by major players in the area, there's no solution in sight, hope is at an all-time low, and now the rest of the world just wants to segregate it away so they don't have to deal with the constant reminder they're powerless to do anything.

I honestly don't think this'll be over until Syria's been reduced to a smoldering crater and the very few people left are just utterly goddamn tired of fighting over the ashes.

woke wedding drone
Jun 1, 2003

by exmarx
Fun Shoe

Chokes McGee posted:

What gets me is the utter nihilism of it all. Everyone's killing everyone, both sides are funded by major players in the area, there's no solution in sight, hope is at an all-time low, and now the rest of the world just wants to segregate it away so they don't have to deal with the constant reminder they're powerless to do anything.

I honestly don't think this'll be over until Syria's been reduced to a smoldering crater and the very few people left are just utterly goddamn tired of fighting over the ashes.

It's worse than 2006-7 Iraq because at least then you could see that, at some point, the Shia would be all dead or redistributed. For Syria the only endgame I can even conceive of is Assad eventually prevailing and running a state that will make Nazi Germany look legitimate and sustainable. Either that or anarchy and murder forever.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

OwlBot 2000 posted:

Ask Somalia or Central Africa.

Or Colombia. They've been going civil war strong for nearly 50 years.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

I probably shouldn't be appalled that Assad is campaigning for presidential elections on June 3, but I am.

https://news.vice.com/articles/assad-wont-let-mounting-deaths-keep-syria-from-holding-sham-election?trk_source=homepage-in-the-news

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Another alleged chlorine barrel bomb attack, this time in Telmans, Idlib. Playlist of videos here.

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

SedanChair posted:

It's worse than 2006-7 Iraq because at least then you could see that, at some point, the Shia would be all dead or redistributed. For Syria the only endgame I can even conceive of is Assad eventually prevailing and running a state that will make Nazi Germany look legitimate and sustainable. Either that or anarchy and murder forever.
Someone could always assassinate Assad. That would be a pretty devastating blow to the regime, from everything we know it's really personality-driven on that end and it'd be difficult for someone outside of the family to pick up the pieces.

cloudchamber
Aug 6, 2010

You know what the Ukraine is? It's a sitting duck. A road apple, Newman. The Ukraine is weak. It's feeble. I think it's time to put the hurt on the Ukraine

JT Jag posted:

Someone could always assassinate Assad. That would be a pretty devastating blow to the regime, from everything we know it's really personality-driven on that end and it'd be difficult for someone outside of the family to pick up the pieces.

It probably wouldn't change anything in the long term, this guy would just take over:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maher_al-Assad

amanasleep
May 21, 2008

cloudchamber posted:

It probably wouldn't change anything in the long term, this guy would just take over:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maher_al-Assad

I don't think anybody will follow this guy enthusiastically. Syrian Politically Incorrect lost its edge years ago.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
I think the point is that, while Assad gone might influence some groups to jump ship, the conflict will continue nearly unabated. The weapons, bombs and vehicles are still there if he leaves, and others will use them for their own ends.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.
I'll be the ignorant guy and ask why haven't any of the rebel groups killed Assad or his brother yet. I assumes it because he is well protected. I think a suicide bomber blew his brothers leg off like a year ago, but i am not sure. Sorry for my ignorance.

Fizzil
Aug 24, 2005

There are five fucks at the edge of a cliff...



pengun101 posted:

I'll be the ignorant guy and ask why haven't any of the rebel groups killed Assad or his brother yet. I assumes it because he is well protected. I think a suicide bomber blew his brothers leg off like a year ago, but i am not sure. Sorry for my ignorance.

Too late for that now. If only the rebels didn't start an armed uprising and just sent a suicide bomber with a well placed plan to blow them up all.. :v:

On a more serious note, I heard things are flaring up in iraq again, like almost a rebellion in the western regions of iraq, but has anyone dug anything? is it really ISIS or just Asha'ir rebels being painted like that by the government?

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Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

Fizzil posted:

On a more serious note, I heard things are flaring up in iraq again, like almost a rebellion in the western regions of iraq, but has anyone dug anything? is it really ISIS or just Asha'ir rebels being painted like that by the government?
For the last few months it's been a three way battle between the Anbar tribes, ISIS and the government. Anbar is outside of government control at this point, and some expect the fighting to reach Baghdad sooner rather than later. The whole thing isn't really getting much coverage, but there have been near unanimous calls of support from various states for Malki's government in it's fight against 'terrorists', which in itself is worrying.

cloudchamber posted:

It probably wouldn't change anything in the long term, this guy would just take over:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maher_al-Assad
Maher isn't the linchpin everybody thinks him to be, and has many enemies in both the military and Mukhabarat. If Bashar goes, they will have a very hard time replacing him and not losing a large part of their support base. Remember, he isn't an insider to the military like his father was, yet the cult of personality in the military rank and file outside the Republican Guard is wholly focused on him. Maher isn't that popular with the Mukhabarat, and the civilian side of the regime is a joke, so it isn't as clear cut as people like to say it is. That is a large part of how the Assads stayed in power and resisted palace coups for the last few decades.

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