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farraday posted:
quote:“It was a Department of Defense liaison officer who relayed this condition to us orally, saying we’d have to sign a form." I'm suddenly very curious if there is a DD form that already exists for situations like this.
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Jun 2, 2015 13:07
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Numerical Anxiety posted:Gold fringe on their banner? Are they fighting for naval sharia? You're confusing the black standard with the American flag.
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Jun 2, 2015 13:12
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Charlz Guybon posted:But U.S. intervention on behalf of rebels in the Aleppo area would probably be complicated by the presence of al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra alongside more moderate rebel groups. Talk about stepping over a dollar to pick up a dime. "Well, ISIS might gain complete control of a strategically important province, but at least JaN won't be part of a large coalition including many moderate groups partially controlling it instead!" 
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Jun 2, 2015 15:08
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Ha. Zarran Aloush, now the leader of Jaysh al-Islam, was one of the men in Sednaya prison who were given amnesty in 2011 during the initial protests as part of the regimes campaign to define the revolution as terrorists. Wonder who else from there went on to become big shots. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/syria-jaish-al-islam-ghouta-bombing-alloush-islamist.html
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Jun 2, 2015 22:40
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http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2015/04/matthew-vandyke-isis-assyrian-army lol
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Jun 2, 2015 23:05
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El Disco posted:I'm suddenly very curious if there is a DD form that already exists for situations like this. DD 3570 Use of Training DD 3570c Use of Training (Continutation) I have to say it's actually quite annoying when the media get a hold of a story. It suddenly becomes impossible to fiend breaking information as they flood the zone with barely reworded out of date rueters/AP wire reports.
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Jun 2, 2015 23:24
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Charlz Guybon posted:Assad is doomed. Well in a petty sad way, at least Assad is hosed, too bad its way to late to mean anything. Where has assad and his family been hiding anyway?
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Jun 3, 2015 01:00
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this is the plot to a ben stiller movie i think
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Jun 3, 2015 01:06
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Well in a petty sad way, at least Assad is hosed, too bad its way to late to mean anything. Where has assad and his family been hiding anyway? Here's a map of Syria/Iraq as of about one year ago:  And a current map:  Most of what ISIS has gained is a lot of loving desert, and most of the losses have been on the regime/SAA side. Quite a few of those FSA groups in the desert are now fighting alongside the Kurds/Euphrates Volcano, so they're more relocated rather than gone. Also, notice how gains/losses can be completely reversed in a year; the entire loving Kobani campaign happened in that time period, but just looking at the map you can't really tell that that yellow blob was reduced to half a yellow spot at one point, and then back to its current boundaries. The SAA losing Palmyra sucks for them/the people living there (especially given ISIL's track record of dealing with antique sites), and the SAA losing control of Hasakah would again definitely suck for them, but to put it bluntly Assad's base of power is Damascus-Homs-Hama-Latakia-Tartus. Hasakah and Palmyra are out in the middle of loving nowhere, not really near the rest of SAA-controlled Syria. Assad's also lost Idlib to the FSA/Al-Nusra, but he could still lose Deir ez-Zoir, Daara, and even Aleppo and still hold on to his real base(s) of power. (This isn't factoring in the morale hits of these various losses, since a string of SAA losses of those magnitude would lead to tons of defections.) Assad is definitely feeling the strain of fighting on so many fronts and for so long now, and ISIS attacking/taking Azaz would really, really suck, but no side is "doomed" because of it. I feel really, really bad for the people living in Azaz though; if ISIL advances any more then the best loving hope at that point is that Azaz becomes Kobani 2.0. On the "plus" side, Afrin Canton is literally right next door to Azaz, and I hear the Kurds have a pretty kickass airforce on their side, especially when they're fighting against ISIL. 
fade5 fucked around with this message at 02:54 on Jun 3, 2015 |
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Jun 3, 2015 02:46
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Didn't Assad actively help (or at least actively ignored) ISIS for a good long while because they were great at clearing out all the other rebel groups? I can't help but think he's starting to seriously regret that decision.
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Jun 3, 2015 03:51
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:Didn't Assad actively help (or at least actively ignored) ISIS for a good long while because they were great at clearing out all the other rebel groups? I can't help but think he's starting to seriously regret that decision. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/02/syria-isis-advance-on-aleppo-aided-by-assad-regime-air-strikes-us-says quote:The US has accused the Syrian government of providing air support to an advance by Islamic State militants against opposition groups north of Aleppo. Fighters opposing the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, have made the same claims since Sunday, when Isis began advancing towards the town of Azaz near the Turkish border. The official twitter account for the US embassy in Syria posted:Reports indicate that the regime is making air-strikes in support of #ISIL's advance on #Aleppo, aiding extremists against Syrian population Also, we're probably not going to be hearing very many specifics out of the Tal Abyad/Gire Sipi front for a little while: https://twitter.com/avashin/status/414474023762792448 quote:YPG in GireSpi ordered media blackout. #TwitterKurds I have to say again, twitter is loving amazing for being able to follow stuff like this in basically real time.
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Jun 3, 2015 04:01
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Looking at the current map, what's with that splotch of ISIS territory in the middle of the government-controlled part of Syria?
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Jun 3, 2015 04:19
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I'd assume the regime and ISIS are still joint operating that Russian oil facility in Tabqa that got George Haswani in trouble as well.
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Jun 3, 2015 04:20
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fade5 posted:Not only does he not regret it, the dumb fucker is still doing it: Not necessarily a bad strategic position on his part. If he believes US/Western aid is making a significant difference in terms of rebel effectiveness, then replacing the rebels with Da'esh means that goes away. He might also be hoping if he can change the conflict into regime vs. extremists that are also undermining other countries in the region, he might get grounds to negotiate with the West for at least lessening of sanctions if not actual support. It's a gamble and it's horribly increasing the bloodshed and continuing the conflict but it's not necessarily stupid on his part since his position is 'maintain as much power as possible and stay in control of the Syrian government'.
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Jun 3, 2015 05:44
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Sylphid posted:Looking at the current map, what's with that splotch of ISIS territory in the middle of the government-controlled part of Syria? Every supervillain needs a volcano lair
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Jun 3, 2015 06:11
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Thank you fade5 for your posts, it's great to have concrete information in such a muddled conflict.
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Jun 3, 2015 07:19
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Numerical Anxiety posted:Gold fringe on their banner? Are they fighting for naval sharia? They're Sovereign Jihadis
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Jun 3, 2015 07:33
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Tias posted:They're Sovereign Jihadis Of ISIS and Men: Livin' off tha fatwa tha land.
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Jun 3, 2015 07:35
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MrNemo posted:He might also be hoping if he can change the conflict into regime vs. extremists that are also undermining other countries in the region, he might get grounds to negotiate with the West for at least lessening of sanctions if not actual support. This has been Assad's strategy since day one. The government presented the narrative of the opposition being composed of jihadist terrorists in mid-2011, and Assad has tried to make himself look like the reasonable partner in this thing ever since. Of course, this entailed that the government would have to shape the battlefield by whittling down the insurgency to mirror their propaganda. Anyone have a read on how heavily defended Hama is? That city is a part of the strategic core, so I'd have to imagine they'd have to put up a way stronger fight than they did elsewhere.
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Jun 3, 2015 07:36
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So if Assad continues to bomb rebel positions to help ISIS advance ( I can't even believe I just wrote that. This war is a clusterfuck beyond belief) wouldn't that give the coalition some legal authority to take out Assad's air force? Or might that be counter productive as well? Since a regime air force that can no longer bomb rebel forces in support of ISIS can also no longer bomb ISIS when they potentially start advancing on Damascus someday. Which I'm sure is not something the west really wants.
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Jun 3, 2015 07:39
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Catch-22
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Jun 3, 2015 07:43
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No one has posted any Libya news in a while so some quick updates: European countries have been negotiating with militias that control port cities in an attempt to establish a military response to the migrant crisis. Europe seeks to use force against migrant smugglers in Libya's territorial waters. This would require consent of the internationally recognized government (Haftar), but that government refuses to consent because the EU is not negotiating with it as the sole legitimate authority of Libya. Even though it does not control the relevant port cities. This is a good example of why the UN's calls for a peaceful solution to the conflict are going to go nowhere. Libya blocks UN action on EU migrant plan ISIS-affiliated militants conducted a suicide attack near Misrata, and declared war on the Tripoli government (Libya Dawn). Libya Dawn responded in kind, calling for a mobilization against ISIS. IS claims Libya suicide attack, declares war on key militia Meanwhile, the Libyan economy is predictably taking a poo poo. Oil revenue has collapsed, not only due to a collapse in oil prices but also a steep decline in production and exports. This has resulted in the Tripoli government pressuring the central bank to burn through its foreign reserves to finance the government. It is also cutting oil subsidies, and banning imports on various heavy industrial goods in order to counter a trade deficit and associated GDP decline. Public servants have not been paid in months, and Libya's currency has declined 35% in value since January. Libya edges closer to economic collapse as currency dives In BENGHAZI, chaos reigns. Haftar's army has made no progress in retaking the city, and as supplies dwindle and more people take up arms there has been increasing internal conflict within the city, including firefights, suicide bombings, and suppression of civil society. One year on from Haftar’s Operation Dignity, Benghazi is sliding into anarchy I'll probably do a Yemen update tomorrow or the day after. Spoilers: Hadi government is losing Charliegrs posted:So if Assad continues to bomb rebel positions to help ISIS advance ( I can't even believe I just wrote that. This war is a clusterfuck beyond belief) wouldn't that give the coalition some legal authority to take out Assad's air force? No, unless it served as the pretext for a UN Security Council resolution approving it (which will never happen). The only other legal justifications for war are self-defense and defense of an ally. Homura and Sickle fucked around with this message at 08:12 on Jun 3, 2015 |
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Jun 3, 2015 08:06
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The EU-Libya refugee situation is so thoroughly hosed up at this point that I'm not sure what to think anymore. It's high-time that council either agrees on shipping the refugees ourselves or at the very least ease up on the border-controls on the old land-route. There's just no way this Australia inspired policy of sinking boats on location won't be a shitshow even if it by miracle manages to get clearance from something resembling an authority in Libya.
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Jun 3, 2015 08:59
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Xoidanor posted:The EU-Libya refugee situation is so thoroughly hosed up at this point that I'm not sure what to think anymore. It's high-time that council either agrees on shipping the refugees ourselves or at the very least ease up on the border-controls on the old land-route. There's just no way this Australia inspired policy of sinking boats on location won't be a shitshow even if it by miracle manages to get clearance from something resembling an authority in Libya. There is little room for countering the narrative anti-immigration advocates disseminate across Europe, especially those Europeans who command the English language. They postpostpost everywhere with dubious studies and links always handy, reddit has taught them well. I'd offer that they're really all just anti-Islamist warriors, but then that would belittle anti-immigration advocates as a whole. Nonsense fucked around with this message at 10:25 on Jun 3, 2015 |
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Jun 3, 2015 10:23
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Charliegrs posted:So if Assad continues to bomb rebel positions to help ISIS advance ( I can't even believe I just wrote that. This war is a clusterfuck beyond belief) wouldn't that give the coalition some legal authority to take out Assad's air force? Or might that be counter productive as well? Since a regime air force that can no longer bomb rebel forces in support of ISIS can also no longer bomb ISIS when they potentially start advancing on Damascus someday. Which I'm sure is not something the west really wants. If the coalition wanted to blow up Syrias Air Force, it would aready be gone, authority or no. There just isn't a willingness to directly engage with Syria's forces save the odd Israeli air raid or two.
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Jun 3, 2015 12:23
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MrNemo posted:Not necessarily a bad strategic position on his part. If he believes US/Western aid is making a significant difference in terms of rebel effectiveness, then replacing the rebels with Da'esh means that goes away. He might also be hoping if he can change the conflict into regime vs. extremists that are also undermining other countries in the region, he might get grounds to negotiate with the West for at least lessening of sanctions if not actual support. It's very clear ISIS is way better equipped than any other opposition group. They are the biggest threat to the regime in the long term. Even if they're roughly on "enemy of my enemy is my friend" terms, that's not going to hold up. ISIS has already inflicted pretty severe damage on the regime in places they felt they could take and that they wanted as soon as they were capable. And the opposition welcomed them into Syria desperate for military help, and were almost immediately stabbed in the back, leading to a war between basically every single opposition group and ISIS (which ISIS is winning). There's certainly no strategic justification for what's going on. But, there was no strategic justification for the Ghouta attack and the continuation of chlorine attacks either.
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Jun 3, 2015 12:43
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mlmp08 posted:If the coalition wanted to blow up Syrias Air Force, it would aready be gone, authority or no. There just isn't a willingness to directly engage with Syria's forces save the odd Israeli air raid or two. We have evidence Assad is enabling ISIS, and we have evidence that Assad is responsible for Ghouta are basically equal imo. There's no UN resolution coming with Russia sitting in the UNSC, but clearly showing those types of crimes committed by the regime are the next best thing. If they didn't go after Syria in 2013, it's going to take a huge change to get involved against the regime today. That likely won't happen throughout the rest of Obama's presidency, but 2016 could present something new.
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Jun 3, 2015 12:48
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I can't dilike the guy if he simply tries to arm the Assyrian's against IS. Small minorities (like the Yezedis) are often left out when it comes to material aid.
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Jun 3, 2015 16:20
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Jagchosis posted:No, unless it served as the pretext for a UN Security Council resolution approving it (which will never happen). The only other legal justifications for war are self-defense and defense of an ally. From a policy perspective, Obama isn't going to go after the Syrian government because it would mean wading deeper into the tarpit that is the Syrian Civil War. ISIS is only getting the business because they came within shouting distance of overthrowing the Iraqi government and turning all of Iraq into a safe haven for our enemies and a charnel house for anyone who doesn't follow their brand of Islam.
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Jun 3, 2015 18:36
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Big news in Yemen: A U.S. envoy met with Houthi leaders, in order to coordinate UN led peace talks between the Hadi forces and the Houthis. The peace talks will begin on June 14th. These talks will be ongoing throughout Ramadan, so maybe they're hoping hungry ambassadors are more peacefully inclined or something. So far 1-2000 civilians have been killed in air strikes and fighting since the intervention began. Saudi Arabia seeks to hinge the conditions for peace on the Houthis withdrawing from Sana'a and other gains and laying down their arms. So if Saudi Arabia has its way these talks will go nowhere. The U.S. also negotiated the release of journalist Casey Coombs. The U.S. is still attempting to secure the release of three other Americans known to be held by the Houthis. The State Department maintains there are no current plans to evacuate American citizens from Yemen due to the instability there, and in response a lawsuit has been filed in the Federal District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan on behalf of Yemeni Americans seeking to force the State Department to evacuate 37 American citizens stranded in Yemen. The Houthis, or some other group, have also captured a French woman and released a video of her pleading for French President Hollande to secure her release. The Houthis also reportedly captured eight Turkish spies, but Turkey denies this. Meanwhile Saudi airstrikes and southern tribesmen have killed dozens of Houthis recently nearish to Aden. Saudi airstrikes also killed 16 members of anti-Houthi forces because they are incompetent. Hadi loyalist forces also retook the town of Dhale in southern Yemen recently, which may be their first military victory since the current phase of the conflict began. And of course, this whole shitshow has led to a massive humanitarian crisis where 500,000 people have been internally displaced recently, with many fleeing to the East of the country, and other places such as Somaliland. In slightly weirder news, in Alabama authorities have brought down a conspiracy to use EBT fraud to send money to Yemen. Corner stores turned EBT cards into cash for drugs, wired profit to Yemen, authorities say In other weird news Yemeni or Houthi-sympathetic hackers stole some internal documents from Saudi Arabia and posted them on pastebin, which includes passwords and communications.
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Jun 4, 2015 00:21
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Situation around Hasakah, I am guessing this is approximate https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGnFQLyUQAEJVBG.png:large edit: ISIS seems to be advancing in all directions at the moment; god help us if they ever actually decide to mass up for an attack.
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Jun 4, 2015 03:09
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fade5 posted:Here's a map of Syria/Iraq as of about one year ago: This is probably a really dumb question but I have to ask it. What is preventing ISIS from attacking into Turkey? I know that would probably be positively suicide from a tactical standpoint but Daesh seems to make its gains by having its enemies overreact and do something stupid. They already tried before to draw the US in via beheadings so why not again? If they can worry Turkey enough to invoke Nato Article 5 then they can possibly get the US or its allies to put boots on the ground which would be a big win on the propaganda / recruiting front. Especially since it would be minimal boots since we are (rightly) still scared of going balls deep back in Iraq.
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Jun 4, 2015 03:10
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Feldegast42 posted:This is probably a really dumb question but I have to ask it. What is preventing ISIS from attacking into Turkey? I know that would probably be positively suicide from a tactical standpoint but Daesh seems to make its gains by having its enemies overreact and do something stupid. They already tried before to draw the US in via beheadings so why not again? If they can worry Turkey enough to invoke Nato Article 5 then they can possibly get the US or its allies to put boots on the ground which would be a big win on the propaganda / recruiting front. Especially since it would be minimal boots since we are (rightly) still scared of going balls deep back in Iraq. Because the Turks are one of the few countries in the area with an actual, functional and well-equipped military. Additionally, ISIS relies on the Turkish border remaining relatively porous as last I checked many of their fighters were entering Iraq/Syria through Turkey and their oil smuggling was going the other direction for cash.
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Jun 4, 2015 03:17
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Feldegast42 posted:This is probably a really dumb question but I have to ask it. What is preventing ISIS from attacking into Turkey? I know that would probably be positively suicide from a tactical standpoint but Daesh seems to make its gains by having its enemies overreact and do something stupid. They already tried before to draw the US in via beheadings so why not again? If they can worry Turkey enough to invoke Nato Article 5 then they can possibly get the US or its allies to put boots on the ground which would be a big win on the propaganda / recruiting front. Especially since it would be minimal boots since we are (rightly) still scared of going balls deep back in Iraq. I don't think they want the US going full bore against them. They want the US involved, because we're a great recruiting tool, but you don't take Istanbul and Mecca at the same time.
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Jun 4, 2015 03:24
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Warbadger posted:Because the Turks are one of the few countries in the area with an actual, functional and well-equipped military. Additionally, ISIS relies on the Turkish border remaining relatively porous as last I checked many of their fighters were entering Iraq/Syria through Turkey and their oil smuggling was going the other direction for cash. Reiterating this. Turkey has an actual big boy's army unlike all of the other players forces currently in the field. I also think at some level, these guys know Erdo is crazy enough to go total war on them if it makes him look good/he thinks he'll get something out of it/finally has a chance to crush Assad
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Jun 4, 2015 03:33
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Feldegast42 posted:This is probably a really dumb question but I have to ask it. What is preventing ISIS from attacking into Turkey? Turkey's military is the most powerful in the region. Oh and they're also huge ISIS supporters (under the table of course).
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Jun 4, 2015 03:38
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fade5 posted:Assad is living in the Presidential Palace in Damascus, most of the time at least. (Damascus is an SAA stronghold, which is how his palace has managed to not be shot at/turned to rubble/JDAMed ten times over by now.) And neither Assad or the Rebels are "doomed" just because of these recent advances by ISIL, although yeah Syria as a country is and has been doomed for the last couple of years. I'm kind of curious how ISIS was able get a foothold near Lebanon. Seems like it would be rather difficult to supply.
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Jun 4, 2015 03:44
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SweetAsselin posted:Turkey's military is the most powerful in the region. Oh and they're also huge ISIS supporters (under the table of course). source?
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Jun 4, 2015 03:45
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Your Weird Uncle posted:source? At very least they could lock that border down a whooooole lot tighter than it is right now. The big fight up north is over potentially severing a highway running from Turkey to the IS capital. Turkey has, as mentioned, a big boy army and the IS controlled border is a lot smaller than, say, the US-Mexico border or something really porous like that. And the convenient places to cover along that stretch could be even more easily sealed off. Meanwhile they've refused to join the regional coalition doing the airstrikes and poo poo on ISIS. OTOH Turkey let a lot of Kurds/war material flow into Kobane. This can be chalked up to a. sure we don't mind militant Kurds having somewhere else to party for once, let them all die, b. international eyes all over the place and c. just generally not wanting to get their dick stuck in the blender that is Syria. This 'let the might over there' and ' avoid the dick blender' philosophy also might explain why they haven't seriously cracked down on ISIL traffic.
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Jun 4, 2015 04:04
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Sperg Victorious posted:I'm kind of curious how ISIS was able get a foothold near Lebanon. Seems like it would be rather difficult to supply. The regime might allow its existence because it puts an ISIL presence close to the Golan.
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Jun 4, 2015 04:25
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