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Mans
Sep 14, 2011

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
al-Baghdadi's still alive??

...how?

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Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Mans posted:

al-Baghdadi's still alive??

...how?

Because he's a CIA operative, duh. ISIS is a false flag which will be used to bring about the NWO.

Open your eyes, sheeple.

Real answer: There are lots of people in the Middle East, and killing one specific one is difficult. Cf. Osama Bin Laden.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Mans posted:

al-Baghdadi's still alive??

...how?

Because an appropriate use of force has yet to be applied to his general location.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
He was seriously wounded back in April by a US airstrike, it was reported.

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!
There will be peace once the first McDonald's opens up in the Islamic State. As long as they remember to take the infidelic McRib off the menu.

Maybe make Diet Coke the official beverage of Global Jihad too?

We need a Republican president for this kind of realpolitik probably.

Foppery
Dec 27, 2013

I POSSESS THE POWER CHRONIC

Smoothrich posted:

Not really. If they lose a city with the USA and ISIS probably rendering that city inhospitable anyway with strategic bombing and booby trapping, they probably captured another one somewhere else. The Iraqi government and military is afraid of them and loses any major engagement horribly. Iraq seems to have basically surrendered and just begs for more USA money and guns instead, probably to sell off or something anyways on the black market.

It's like WW1 in the Northern borders against Kurdish fighters who don't break on contact but the lines barely ever move outside of skirmishes with low intensity shelling and sniping.

Overall the borders are fluid but any gains or losses of territory strike me as incredibly meaningless to the strategic picture. ISIS governs millions of people in a geographic region based on the Tigris and Euphrates. They apparently have legitimacy and endorsement from the tribal leaders and their bureaucracy is staffed by veteran Saddam era governors and mayors and stuff who know how to run cities and maintain infrastructure, despite people always saying otherwise.

No one in the region has the ability or the will to actually invade and defeat ISIS's conventional forces at all I think.

At this rate, ISIS should start being added to maps as a new majority Sunni nation that everyone hates but everyone buys cheap oil from anyways. Turkey doesn't seem to mind the new neighbor, Israel seems to care more about Iran than being encircled by ISIS for some reason, Syria doesn't exist, and the Kurds are less recognized as legitimate landholders than ISIS even.

This isn't accurate. Iraq isn't doing spectacularly, true, but they've been making gains recently. They took back Tikrit and much of Baiji and it looks like they may have cut off Fallujah and/or Ramadi.

The Kurds are actually doing fantastically. relatively speaking. It really isn't like WWI at all; over the past month they've managed to gain a huge amount of territory, and they just encircled a large ISIS position at Sarrin. That battle should be wrapped up soon enough.

And, of course, whoever ultimately comes out of the really heavy fighting going on in Western Syria right now is not likely to be very accommodating to ISIS. Add in the fact that every single country in the region (with the very tenuous exception of Turkey) is very anti-ISIS and I would be surprised if they managed to stay on the map permanently.

Azran
Sep 3, 2012

And what should one do to be remembered?
The worst part of it all is that, considering how the rest of the world is behaving, I fully expect Ukraine to disappear into Russia's territory at the same time ISIS becomes an acknowledged state in a constant battle against their Kurdish insurgents. :smith:

Terrible things keep happening and no one cares all that much.

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!

Foppery posted:

This isn't accurate. Iraq isn't doing spectacularly, true, but they've been making gains recently. They took back Tikrit and much of Baiji and it looks like they may have cut off Fallujah and/or Ramadi.

The Kurds are actually doing fantastically. relatively speaking. It really isn't like WWI at all; over the past month they've managed to gain a huge amount of territory, and they just encircled a large ISIS position at Sarrin. That battle should be wrapped up soon enough.

And, of course, whoever ultimately comes out of the really heavy fighting going on in Western Syria right now is not likely to be very accommodating to ISIS. Add in the fact that every single country in the region (with the very tenuous exception of Turkey) is very anti-ISIS and I would be surprised if they managed to stay on the map permanently.

Al Jazeera posted:

At least 73 people have been killed in the the western Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, as the Iraqi government stepped up air strikes and artillery fire against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) armed group, sources told Al Jazeera.

An air strike on a sports field in Ramadi shortly after midnight on Sunday killed at least 50 people and left more than 30 people injured. At least 23 people were killed and around 40 wounded after shelling north of Fallujah. Hospital officials said most of those killed were young men and described them as civilians, a claim disputed by Iraqi security officials, who said those targeted were members of ISIL.

Al Jazeera's Jane Arraf, reporting from Baghdad, said sources in the city had accused the Iraqi government of using barrel bombs. "In this latest attack we're told that young men had gathered after breaking the day's fast to play traditional games including soccer," Arraf said. "We're also told by local sources that they were joined by members of ISIL, trying to recruit some of them, and that's when they air strikes happened." The Iraqi army's Anbar Operations Command said they launched air strikes in the city, aimed at what they called an ISIL gathering.

In Fallujah, which is also held by ISIL, 23 people including five women and seven children, were killed after Iraqi government forces shelled areas in the north of the city, hospital sources told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, seven soldiers and five suicide bombers were killed, when ISIL launched an attack against an Iraqi Quick Reaction Force base protecting a dam northeast of Fallujah. Security sources in Anbar province told Al Jazeera that five suicide car bombs attacked the Nadhem al-Taqsim base 15-km northeast of Fallujah on Sunday afternoon. Four of the vehicles were reportedly destroyed by the security forces, before they were detonated, while the fifth managed to detonate killing the seven soldiers. Another suicide attack was also reportedly carried out on the Haditha dam, 160-km west of Ramadi, killing at least two soldiers and injuring three others, according to Iraqi Army general Ali Dabu'un.

The deaths came as more than 30 members of the government-allied Popular Mobilisation Forces died in clashes with ISIL fighters near the city.

The spokesman for the coalition said fighting near the city was ongoing, and would pave the way for its eventual recapture. The coalition of mainly Shia militias was formed in response to an ISIL offensive in the summer of 2014 that saw much of Anbar province fall to the armed group.

Both the militias and the Iraqi government have been condemned by human rights groups for abuses against Sunni Arab civilians , who constitute the majority of the population in the province. Amnesty International has accused the Iraqi government of using " indiscriminate shelling to regain control over Fallujah and parts of Ramadi from ISIL," further accusing it of killing civilians and causing damage to civilian infrastructure.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/scores-killed-iraqi-army-raids-anbar-province-150705065022342.html

Shi'ite militias blowing up soccer games and shelling children in the Sunni cities that harbored Al-Qaeda in Iraq in the first place even before ISIS is loving retarded and probably the opposite of progress.

J33uk
Oct 24, 2005
An Iraqi Air Force jet apparently had a technical issue today... And as a result dropped a bomb on Baghdad.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-06/iraq-warplane-accidentally-bombs-baghdad/6599518

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

goose fleet posted:

Aren't they in a decline now, constantly losing territory and being bombed on a daily basis? What's their contingency plan for all of this, just disperse and go into hiding and hope not to get caught?

No, they're not in decline.

They'd lost some territory, but then came back and siezed Palmyra in Syria (home to those ruins you've probably heard of by now), and Ramadi in Iraq.

They still control large swathes of territory and rule over millions of people. They certainly don't seem to be lacking recruits, weapons or money. They're doing fine.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

J33uk posted:

An Iraqi Air Force jet apparently had a technical issue today... And as a result dropped a bomb on Baghdad.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-06/iraq-warplane-accidentally-bombs-baghdad/6599518

Can anyone who knows about air dropped bombs chime in on how many things would have to go wrong for a live bomb to drop accidentally and explode on impact? How do bombs become armed?

Rincewinds
Jul 30, 2014

MEAT IS MEAT

J33uk posted:

An Iraqi Air Force jet apparently had a technical issue today... And as a result dropped a bomb on Baghdad.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-06/iraq-warplane-accidentally-bombs-baghdad/6599518

They formulated this a bit weird on the radio, saying that iraq air force had bombed Baghdad today, in an accident. Started to wonder if things had completely collapsed, before they said it was an accident, which is something they should have started with. :v:

TheBalor
Jun 18, 2001

Count Roland posted:

No, they're not in decline.

They'd lost some territory, but then came back and siezed Palmyra in Syria (home to those ruins you've probably heard of by now), and Ramadi in Iraq.

They still control large swathes of territory and rule over millions of people. They certainly don't seem to be lacking recruits, weapons or money. They're doing fine.

They're doing what they always do, what they've done for years. They push on the weakest target. Before, that was the Kurds. Before that, the Iraqi government. Now, it's the SAA.

goose willis
Jun 14, 2015

Get ready for teh wacky laughz0r!
Assad clearly doesn't control a huge portion of his country, but how does regime media present this? Do they pretend they still control the entire country?

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

goose fleet posted:

Assad clearly doesn't control a huge portion of his country, but how does regime media present this? Do they pretend they still control the entire country?

He controls a lot of the parts where people actually live.

J33uk
Oct 24, 2005

Best Friends posted:

Can anyone who knows about air dropped bombs chime in on how many things would have to go wrong for a live bomb to drop accidentally and explode on impact? How do bombs become armed?

Based on what I've read they were coming back from an air strike, they'd dropped their poo poo on the target. One bomb didn't release for whatever reason but was seemingly still armed (I don't think they've been clear on if the pilot was aware of this) and while he was returning to base and over Baghdad the bomb decided now was the time to release and well whoops. Of course this is the official story being shopped around so maybe things are way more loving stupid than that.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

J33uk posted:

Based on what I've read they were coming back from an air strike, they'd dropped their poo poo on the target. One bomb didn't release for whatever reason but was seemingly still armed (I don't think they've been clear on if the pilot was aware of this) and while he was returning to base and over Baghdad the bomb decided now was the time to release and well whoops. Of course this is the official story being shopped around so maybe things are way more loving stupid than that.

That type of stuff isn't even that rare in functional air forces, the USS Midway was almost taken out by a bomb dislodged during a fly over.

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Nevermind McCains little adventure.

Liberal_L33t
Apr 9, 2005

by WE B Boo-ourgeois

Rincewinds posted:

They formulated this a bit weird on the radio, saying that iraq air force had bombed Baghdad today, in an accident. Started to wonder if things had completely collapsed, before they said it was an accident, which is something they should have started with. :v:

Considering the U.S. Air Force's record when it comes to friendly fire, I think we can see that the apple hasn't fallen far from the tree.

Foppery
Dec 27, 2013

I POSSESS THE POWER CHRONIC

Smoothrich posted:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/scores-killed-iraqi-army-raids-anbar-province-150705065022342.html

Shi'ite militias blowing up soccer games and shelling children in the Sunni cities that harbored Al-Qaeda in Iraq in the first place even before ISIS is loving retarded and probably the opposite of progress.

Yeah the Iraqis are, by and large, incompetent and corrupt but you're acting like they're the only real force opposing ISIS in the region when they simply aren't. And even then, ISIS isn't exactly beating them soundly. They haven't been able to make any gains worth noting since Ramadi, and it even looks like they're on the defensive on that front. They still haven't been able to take back Tikrit and are losing ground in Baiji.

Look at it this way; ISIS has nowhere to go from here. It is surrounded on all sides by enemies. It has no real allies apart from allies of convenience, who will likely abandon it when things get too rough. There is no way out for them and their long-term prospects look very bleak.

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!

Best Friends posted:

Can anyone who knows about air dropped bombs chime in on how many things would have to go wrong for a live bomb to drop accidentally and explode on impact? How do bombs become armed?

He was probably wasted drunk or had his life support rigged up to smoke hasish or something I bet. This is a US trained elite Iraqi pilot we're talking about after all.

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!

Foppery posted:

Yeah the Iraqis are, by and large, incompetent and corrupt but you're acting like they're the only real force opposing ISIS in the region when they simply aren't. And even then, ISIS isn't exactly beating them soundly. They haven't been able to make any gains worth noting since Ramadi, and it even looks like they're on the defensive on that front. They still haven't been able to take back Tikrit and are losing ground in Baiji.

Look at it this way; ISIS has nowhere to go from here. It is surmounted on all sides by enemies. It has no real allies apart from allies of convenience, who will likely abandon it when things get too rough. There is no way out for them and their long-term prospects look very bleak.

Meanwhile in the rest of the Middle East and Africa and Texas..

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Smoothrich posted:

He was probably wasted drunk or had his life support rigged up to smoke hasish or something I bet. This is a US trained elite Iraqi pilot we're talking about after all.

It's most likely an Iranian Revolutionary Guards pilot since the majority of the Iraqi operational planes are Iranian SU-25's flown by Iranians.

Dahn
Sep 4, 2004

CeeJee posted:

It's most likely an Iranian Revolutionary Guards pilot since the majority of the Iraqi operational planes are Iranian SU-25's flown by Iranians.

Are you trying to imply that Iran just bombed Iraq?

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!

CeeJee posted:

It's most likely an Iranian Revolutionary Guards pilot since the majority of the Iraqi operational planes are Iranian SU-25's flown by Iranians.

Really? How does that even happen. I hear how the Iraqi regime has become an Iranian puppet a lot, does anyone have good articles or lectures that go into detail on Iran's tendrils in Baghdad's government and the Shiite militias?

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

Mans posted:

al-Baghdadi's still alive??

...how?

Lascivious Sloth posted:

He was seriously wounded back in April by a US airstrike, it was reported.
Apparently he might be permanently hosed up from that airstrike:

quote:

According to media reports, al-Baghdadi was wounded in a March 18th, 2015 coalition airstrike at the al-Baaj District, in the Nineveh Governorate, near the Syrian border. His wounds were so serious that the top ISIL leaders had a meeting to discuss who would replace him if he died. Three days later, on 21 April, al-Baghdadi had not yet recovered enough from his injuries to resume daily control of ISIL.
--
On May 3, 2015, the Guardian further reported that al-Baghdadi was recovering from severe injuries he received from a March 18, 2015 airstrike, in a part of Mosul. It was also reported that al-Baghdadi's spinal injury, which left him paralyzed and incapacitated, means that he may never be able to fully resume direct command of ISIL. By 13 May, ISIL had released audio statements in which they vowed to retaliate for al-Baghdadi's injury, which the Iraqi Defense Ministry believed would be carried out through attacks in Europe.

On 14 May, ISIL released an audio message that it claimed was from al-Baghdadi. In the recording, al-Baghdadi urged Muslims to emigrate to the "Islamic State", and to join the fight in Iraq and Syria. In the recording, he also condemned the Saudi involvement in Yemen, and claimed that the conflict would lead to the end of the Saudi royal family's rule. He also claimed that Islam was never a religion of peace, that it was "the religion of fighting." Assessment was made that this statement proved that al-Baghdadi remained in control or influencing ISIL.
Timeline and location of the actual airstrike is a little muddy, but given that ISIL "vowed to retaliate for al-Baghdadi's injury" on May 13th and that there's been a suspicious lack of healthy al-Baghdadi videos, presumably he's still hosed up/injured. It's likely that he's now in a "safer" place (possibly Raqqa), probably with lots of civilians (read: human shields) close by so that any airstrike on him would cause massive civilian casualties.

fade5 fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Jul 6, 2015

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

fade5 posted:

Apparently he might be permanently hosed up from that airstrike:

Timeline and location of the actual airstrike is a little muddy, but given that ISIL "vowed to retaliate for al-Baghdadi's injury" on May 13th and that there's been a suspicious lack of healthy al-Baghdadi videos, presumably he's still hosed up/injured. It's likely that he's now in a "safer" place, probably with lots of civilians (read: human shields) close by so that any airstrike on him would cause massive civilian casualties.

So we incapacitated him but did not kill him? That sounds like the best outcome by avoiding martyrdom.

54.4 crowns
Apr 7, 2011

To think before you speak is like wiping your arse before you shit.

Brown Moses posted:

If only, ISIS has been running training camps for children for a long time. For example, this kid first appeared in a training camp video, then a video where he's executing two Russian soldiers.




In this one another ISIS student shoots a guy in the face




FUCKOURRACE!

FUCKOURRACE!

FUCKOURRACE!

FUCKOURRACE!

FUCKOURRACE!

FUCKOURRACE!

TheBalor
Jun 18, 2001

Smoothrich posted:

Meanwhile in the rest of the Middle East and Africa and Texas..

ISIS the group in the Levant has very little to do with the groups like Boko Haram that swear "allegiance" to them. The vast majority of them existed before, and they'll exist if ISIS is crushed, too. I believe OBL got a lot of pledges like that when he was the hot poo poo Jihadi, but that didn't exactly last for his group when he died and the new hotness showed up.

Homura and Sickle
Apr 21, 2013

TheBalor posted:

ISIS the group in the Levant has very little to do with the groups like Boko Haram that swear "allegiance" to them. The vast majority of them existed before, and they'll exist if ISIS is crushed, too. I believe OBL got a lot of pledges like that when he was the hot poo poo Jihadi, but that didn't exactly last for his group when he died and the new hotness showed up.

The Libyan branch is apparently more ISIS than the other random franchises, apparently ISIS leaders actually traveled to Libya to train them

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

TheBalor posted:

ISIS the group in the Levant has very little to do with the groups like Boko Haram that swear "allegiance" to them.

I hate to bring back the WWII analogies but isn't this a little like saying Japan wasn't a member of the axis? They both had shared end goals that could co-exist, even though they never fought side by side.

ass struggle fucked around with this message at 00:52 on Jul 7, 2015

TheBalor
Jun 18, 2001

sparatuvs posted:

I hate to bring back the WWII analogies but isn't this a little like saying Japan wasn't a member of the axis? They both had a shared end goals that could co-exist, even though they never fought side by side.

Right, but I think he's being incredibly optimistic in saying that because there are groups affiliated (to various degrees) with ISIS all over, that their setbacks in their home territory mean nothing. The Euphrates Volcano is less than an hour's drive from Raqqa. They have to hoof their supplies all the way around the river from Turkey. And every counter-attack they've launched has gotten smeared by a combination of YPG troops and air strikes. What do they have to lose before we can downgrade their recent performance from "great" to "satisfactory"?

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!

Jagchosis posted:

The Libyan branch is apparently more ISIS than the other random franchises, apparently ISIS leaders actually traveled to Libya to train them

ISIS is ungodly rich and probably has a deep bench of experienced, practical, and zealous jihadists. They've been writing the book over the past year on how to exploit sectarian tensions in a low simmer than shock and awe car bomb Allahu Ackbar away the rival armies or rebels off the map and leave undefended cities behind for the taking.

They probably have moneybagged saboteurs up and down Africa and the Middle East forming cells and networks, using their expertise to raise armies and drawing up war maps for years of unprecedented terror, in the Muslim world and undoubtedly across the Western world too. They dream of toppling the Saudis, liberating Gaza, capturing Baghdad, and genociding millions along the way. Brazen daylight assassinations of regional leaders to create more turmoil is probably coming up next I'd wager

Till maybe some drunk ISIS fucker chilling with Hezbollah selfies himself kidnapping an IDF soldier or something and unleashes the Wrath of the Jew across the Levant. Someone affiliated to ISIS has gotta gently caress up and bring Israel into this eventually. Seems like ISIS and Israel will be sharing a border soon enough after all.

The Brookings Institution hosted a debate with a US Senator and some other dudes on the merits of invading ISIS, good debate so far watching it. One guy probably wins it in the first minute by referring to the non-intervention position as the "Sarah Palin doctrine" and getting laughs. Good way to sell a war, turning the pitch into a stand-up act.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQC3F_7Dchw

Smoothrich fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Jul 7, 2015

Gregor Samsa
Sep 5, 2007
Nietzsche's Mustache

Smoothrich posted:



Till maybe some drunk ISIS fucker chilling with Hezbollah selfies himself kidnapping an IDF soldier or something and unleashes the Wrath of the Jew across the Levant. Someone affiliated to ISIS has gotta gently caress up and bring Israel into this eventually. Seems like ISIS and Israel will be sharing a border soon enough after all.



If ISIS manages to get Israel to actually invade Syria (rather than just fly airstrikes or something), they will heal the loving Sunni-Shia split.

goose willis
Jun 14, 2015

Get ready for teh wacky laughz0r!
How could ISIS possibly hope to stand up to the Israeli army, let alone any well-paid, well-equipped force?

ProfessorCurly
Mar 28, 2010
Presumably, in a very similar way to how Hamas and Hezbollah did. Melt away from concerted attacks, using collateral damage, intimidation and bribery to win over the local population and then start killing IDF troops until the government collapses and the war is called off.

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!
Israel probably has an operation planned out in detail to take Raqqa within 48 hours since the beginning. They probably have informants all over ISIS land too, isn't that how Mossad operates?

Honestly if I was a Muslim leader on the back foot to ISIS or Al-Qaeda I'd order my army to convert to Judaism and beg the IDF to bail me out first thing

Smoothrich fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Jul 7, 2015

Bizarro Kanyon
Jan 3, 2007

Something Awful, so easy even a spaceman can do it!


I would like to thank this thread for keeping me up to date on the Middle East in general. In between Brown Mose's posts and fade5's posts, I have a decent but never completely understanding of what is going on.

When my sister shares a War criminal Allen West post and I respond with that information, you would think that would help her understand. No, it does not because it makes it look like Obama is doing something.

Thank you though for helping me better understand the situation actually going on where you are personally invested.

Smoothrich
Nov 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 2 years!

Bizarro Kanyon posted:

I would like to thank this thread for keeping me up to date on the Middle East in general. In between Brown Mose's posts and fade5's posts, I have a decent but never completely understanding of what is going on.

When my sister shares a War criminal Allen West post and I respond with that information, you would think that would help her understand. No, it does not because it makes it look like Obama is doing something.

Thank you though for helping me better understand the situation actually going on where you are personally invested.

I'm pretty sure most of our Arab allies and at least half of the American generals and foreign policy think tankers I've listened to imply they believe Obama is an Iranian puppet at this point to be fair. The criticism of his policy regarding ISIS is resounding.

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icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


sparatuvs posted:

I hate to bring back the WWII analogies but isn't this a little like saying Japan wasn't a member of the axis? They both had shared end goals that could co-exist, even though they never fought side by side.

Nigeria's problems as a state and society arguably aren't much related to those of Iraq and Syria, whereas Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were in fact fairly analogous. so no not really. Boko Haram are probably better compared to other African civil wars like the Kony dude or the Rwandan genocide or the Congo wars. But they happen to be Muslims who are comitting genocide instead of Christians, so people go bugfuck insane about them

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Jul 7, 2015

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