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No.44 posted:So I don't know if its just some sort of media manipulation or what not, but it seems that the vast majority of these refugees are young to middle aged men. Everytime I've read about a boat being rescued, the numbers have been something like 800 men vs. 50 women/children. It just seems really bizarre that the sociological makeup of these groups of refugees is pretty much the inverse of what its been for pretty much every major war in history. You haven't put enough thought into this. Transportation from Syria to Europe is not free. a Single illegal refugee will probably require the backing of several friends and family members to get the money. Hard enough if you're coming from inside Syria where massive inflation has cut down whatever savings you may have, but IDPS and refugees in crowded camps will have generally have little in the way of collateral. So you scrounge together money to send someone who will then hopefully be able to earn some money that can be used to get others across. So you send able bodied young men, which given the demographics there is a surfeit of. The situation with the Kurdish family that has brought the world's attention to this exists because the father had a sister in Canada who was able to pay for them. Prospective refugees not as lucky wouldn't send children in the first place.
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Sep 4, 2015 01:30
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farraday posted:I would have to see some really convincing proof to believe this. I agree, but with how evidence is piling up suggesting an increased Russian presence, it's likely only a matter of time. Unrelated quote:Two-year-old Aylan Kurdi was born into a country eaten up by war. His parents, Abdullah and Rehen, only wanted a better life for Aylan and his 4-year-old brother, Galip, than they had in Kobani, Syria.  http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/03/europe/migration-crisis-aylan-kurdi-turkey-canada/index.html
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Sep 4, 2015 01:31
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Volkerball posted:http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/03/europe/migration-crisis-aylan-kurdi-turkey-canada/index.html  I cannot imagine being that father. I don't want to imagine it.
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Sep 4, 2015 01:41
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Kaal posted:Upworthy put this up today, though it's actually about a year old. It's being picked up by Occupy Wall Street and all the various slacktivist groups. Given its sympathetic pairing of the Syrian conflict with global warming / water resource management as well as the recent stories of refugees pouring into Eastern Europe, I'd expect to see it plastered all over your Facebook walls shortly: This is actually not bad given its context. Nikolaos Van Dam and Joshua Landis spoke on various occasions on how the drought played a role in the initial uprising in Daraa.
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Sep 4, 2015 01:42
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farraday posted:You haven't put enough thought into this. That would make sense if they were just fleeing poverty. I'm under the impression that this war in Syria has been in full swing for awhile now and that means alot of those families still stuck there don't have a whole lot of time left to wait for these guys to learn another language and go back to school. Western Europe isn't exactly wanting for unskilled labour with all the economic migrants coming from Eastern Europe on a daily basis. I know I'm sounding kind of harsh here, but having a large number of ruderless, lonely, stressed, young men who probably also have PTSD trying to make their way into an already competitive job market in a foreign country is a bad scenario. There have already been instances of riots breaking out because of how long its taking just to process their paperwork. They have alot more to lose than most if they don't start making money fast, and they're going to get increasingly pissed off with every obstacle they have to face to start doing that.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:05
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Short little article with a list of charities that do good work for refugees, in case any of you are interested. http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-09-03/5-groups-doing-important-work-help-refugees-you-may-not-have-heard In news, poo poo is going down in Baghdad. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia that fought against US forces during the Iraq War, evidently kidnapped a number of Turkish workers recently. The Iraqi Army just attempted a massive raid against them, which triggered a street fight. Needless to say, Hezbollah pushed them back, killed several, captured 15, and captured a number of vehicles as well. Fighting is ongoing. One of those reminders that we have not reached worst case scenario in Iraq and Syria yet.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:06
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No.44 posted:That would make sense if they were just fleeing poverty. I'm under the impression that this war in Syria has been in full swing for awhile now and that means alot of those families still stuck there don't have a whole lot of time left to wait for these guys to learn another language and go back to school. Western Europe isn't exactly wanting for unskilled labour with all the economic migrants coming from Eastern Europe on a daily basis. I'm sorry you just don't know what you're talking about and should probably just stop.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:09
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I don't really see why anyone would try to portray mass refugee management as easy or cheap. It is blatantly obvious rhetoric, patently untrue, and it really just undermines the central moral argument which is that these people need help. You're not doing immigration advocates any favors by immediately putting them on the defensive about fiscal policy.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:16
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:Sure but just consider how many resources were expended to turn them into refugees in the first place! After all, Iraq was a relatively secular, stable, prosperous society until we blew it to smithereens. I don't think there's any question that Iraq is worse off now but this seems slightly revisionary due to just how many refugees the actions of the Hussein regime created.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:18
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Volkerball posted:Short little article with a list of charities that do good work for refugees, in case any of you are interested. That is really bad news. I never worked on Shia-related issues much, but I knew of KH. The Iraqi Army has very little chance of openly taking them on. I am unable to fathom why they would do this, I just don't see what they are hoping to gain. It seems retaliatory, but I can't think of any events in recent history that pitted Turkey against the Shiite militias or Iran. Perhaps it is related to the government upheaval, but I don't understand why Iran would show their displeasure this way.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:56
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Bait and Swatch posted:That is really bad news. I never worked on Shia-related issues much, but I knew of KH. The Iraqi Army has very little chance of openly taking them on. I am unable to fathom why they would do this, I just don't see what they are hoping to gain. It seems retaliatory, but I can't think of any events in recent history that pitted Turkey against the Shiite militias or Iran. Perhaps it is related to the government upheaval, but I don't understand why Iran would show their displeasure this way. It could have something to do with the increasingly popular belief that Turkey is either deliberately enabling or outright supporting ISIS, who KH are not on good terms with. Diplomacy news! Libya peace talks resumed today, and tomorrow King Obama is meeting with King Salman for what will presumably be a mutual bitching match. The UN is calling for unimpeded access to Yemen in order to deliver humanitarian aid.
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Sep 4, 2015 03:08
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farraday posted:I'm sorry you just don't know what you're talking about and should probably just stop. I'm sorry, are these people not fleeing a war where they're being attacked by both of the armies involved? Do all of these people have relatives that can somehow procure them jobs quickly? Wars don't take several months/years to engulf entire countries like they used too. Sending away the people who have the best chance of defending themselves/others in the middle of a conflict seems like an incredibly risky gamble to take that isn't likely to end well for anyone involved.
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Sep 4, 2015 03:10
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No.44 posted:I'm sorry, are these people not fleeing a war where they're being attacked by both of the armies involved? Do all of these people have relatives that can somehow procure them jobs quickly? You're using 10 minutes worth of reasoning to tell the thread how it is and ask the Big Questions. If you really want to understand why and how refugees move about then go to any news site right now.
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Sep 4, 2015 03:18
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No.44 posted:I'm sorry, are these people not fleeing a war where they're being attacked by both of the armies involved? Do all of these people have relatives that can somehow procure them jobs quickly? One side is dropping chemical weapons on them, the other side wants to kill them and take their women AND quite possibly using chemical weapons. And ANOTHER side wants to come in and kill them too. What choice is there?
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Sep 4, 2015 03:19
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SedanChair posted:Is failing to be bigoted, nationalist and self-defeating so surprising and alien to Europeans? Making your country a haven for as many refugees as can make it there has no downsides. no this is objectively and empirically wrong i am sorry
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Sep 4, 2015 03:29
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No.44 posted:I'm sorry, are these people not fleeing a war where they're being attacked by both of the armies involved? Do all of these people have relatives that can somehow procure them jobs quickly? Yeah this refugee crisis is totally out of the blue. Millions of people haven't been moving into Turkey/Lebanon/Jordan for the past few years. Is there any evidence the Turkish government has been letting people move on so the EU can no longer ignore the problem?
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Sep 4, 2015 03:29
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Lascivious Sloth posted:Actually it doesn't, and this is a disgusting attitude and based on xenophobic myths. I worked in Nauru centre where Australia puts it's refugees, albeit I was adovacy and welfare. I also worked on mainland with them. It is much more expensive to process and ship them away rather then resettle them and integrate them into schooling systems and community. When integrated properly with respect, they get jobs and pay taxes and contribute to the community and society. This happened during the Vietnam war and Australia took Vietnamese refugees in and resettled them with permanent Visas. We have a really strong and thriving healthy Vietnamese community in Australia now. this contradicts nothing i've posted, you realise "proper integration" requires a coherent and reasonably funded investment. it can be done well, but it can also be done poorly, and it is very important that it be done well. part of that means not taking more than the economy of any given area can manage. all i'm saying is, there's a reason we're not just saying to every syrian refugee "sure just stay in greece" - greece cannot afford to process all those refugees in anywhere near a responsible manner. the only point i've contradicted is "making your country a haven for as many refugees as can make it there has no downsides", or its equivalent (which is, of course, wholly monstrous on its face, as it implies that people should have to be subjected to the harrowing test of actually making it to the border in order to be considered for refugee status but that's a dreadfully uncharitable reading so i've assumed SedanChair means something rather different), which is basically what our social democrats said back in the seventies-eighties, which led to essentially no efforts being made to properly integrate foreigners making their homes here, which led to widespread disillusionment (both among immigrant communities and natives) and ghettofication which is still haunting us today in the form of our worst political parties sedanchair: every refugee that can make it to europe already has the right of asylum, though they must by the entirely dysfunctional structure in place today apply the first country they made landfall. the discussion being taken in Europe today is about fetching more people from the complete disaster zones in Lebanon and Jordan, and whether to enforce the Dublin agreement. you really ought to make even a cursory attempt at educating yourself before spouting bollocks like you've been doing
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Sep 4, 2015 03:38
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McDowell posted:Yeah this refugee crisis is totally out of the blue. Millions of people haven't been moving into Turkey/Lebanon/Jordan for the past few years. people are getting onto tiny shite boats to get to Lesbos or what have you, there's not a lot Turkey can do about it without endangering quite a lot of lives
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Sep 4, 2015 03:39
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The previous discussion on Haji Bakr and the idea that he allegedly was the power behind Abu Dua had me very intrigued. I went over the information available on him, and I still do not see him as being anything other than a senior leader, likely the overall Security emir. As a disclaimer, this is just my analysis of open source information, so the truth is unknown. The discussion is always the best part though. Here's the three key reasons for my assessment: The "treasure trove" of documents: This is the part that stands out to me the most, as these documents simply are not the all-encompassing plan that they are made out to be. The primary argument for the influence of Haji Bakr seems to stem from these documents released from Der Spiegel, but in reviewing them , they all are what I would expect to see from a security emir. If you notice the included hierarchy for example, it is purely related to security. It is missing consideration of key leadership positions we know ISIL maintains, such as the provincial governor (wali), the overall military emir, the administrative emir or the media emir, as well as the more senior positions above these. While it does account for a sharia emir, this is likely related only to approval for the operations conducted by security, rather than the approval of the operations for an entire region. While Haji Bakr was obviously in a leadership position, his writings all seem related to intelligence gathering, individual target nomination and infiltrating an area. While this is a key part of ISIL's activities, it is not the be all end all that Der Spiegel portrays it to be. Arrival in Syria: Haji Bakr reportedly arrived in Syria in late-2012. We know Abu Muhammad al Jolani, under the command of Abu Dua, arrived in Syria in August 2011, and JaN was announced in January 2012. On my assessment that he was the security emir, it is more likely that he arrived in Syria to begin consolidation of the areas under JaN, infiltrate to prepare to attacks on regime and rebel areas and hedge bets against Abu Muhammad al Jolani. It didn't take a genius to guess that Jolani would not give up his authority willingly, and I would bet Abu Dua and his leaders recognized the potential for his refusal to resubmit to their authority. This puts Haji Bakr in place before the April announcement of ISIL and al Jolani's rejection and appeal to Zawahiri. As Haji Bakr's cells would be responsible for vetting people (Jan members returning to ISIL), identifying opponents/targets and conducting an overall intelligence estimate for uncontrolled areas, his place would be in Syria, as he was. Death in January 2014: This is the only part that makes me question if he truly was the overall Security Emir, or if he was just the security emir for Syria. If he truly was the overall Security Emir, I would have expected him to have returned to Iraq in the months prior to the takeover of Fallujah. Besides that, Haji Bakr's death occurred before ISIL's greatest successes. While it's possible that the rest of ISIL was simply executing his grand plan as Der Spiegel assumes, it in no way accounts for the fluid situation that was on the ground. Their expansion, the takeover of Fallujah, Mosul and Tikrit, the quick expansion in Syria, all this came after his death. I just don't see him as being this amazing planner for all of ISIL's activities, given that the frequently heralded successes of ISIL occurred after he was dead. Haji Bakr was definitely important, as are all of ISIL's most senior of leaders. To use an analogy, the the Secretary of Defense is an incredibly important person, no on would argue that they are the true power behind the president simply because they are obviously important. That being said, no one would say that they are lacking for power and authority either. While Abu Dua is in charge, his immediate subordinates are incredibly important to the overall operations of the organization. While they may not have final authority over Abu Dua, they are more powerful than 99% of the organization and are on a nearly equal level. Many of ISIL's top-level decisions likely occur following extensive analysis and discussion among the leadership group. The most interesting points from those documents is how cold and calculating ISIL is, which is something I'm glad the world gets to see. This is not new and is not the result of one, or even a few people. They are and have always been cold and calculating, in virtually everything they do. What I always told my students was that the ideology is often used more as a justification, rather than a motivation. Sure, plenty of the low-level fighters eat that poo poo up, but it is not what drives the senior leadership, and the overall objectives of the group center on gaining increased power relative to competitors. Ideology plays a role, but it is much smaller than is usually assumed. Ideology gets you recruits and attention, but plenty of groups and armies with large numbers have been defeated throughout history. It takes intelligence and planning to accomplish what ISIL has. Regardless whether the overall leader is Abu Dua or someone else, it takes more than one person to plan, coordinate and execute the operations and strategy that ISIL has. Bait and Swatch fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Sep 4, 2015 |
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Sep 4, 2015 03:49
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V. Illych L. posted:people are getting onto tiny shite boats to get to Lesbos or what have you, there's not a lot Turkey can do about it without endangering quite a lot of lives Yes but why is it happening now? Previous EU coverage/discussion seemed focused on North African migrants on the Mediterranean, but the focus has shifted to Turkey just as they are stepping up their offensive against IS and the PKK. It suggests the situation for refugees in the states bordering the conflict has become unbearable.
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Sep 4, 2015 03:49
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McDowell posted:Yes but why is it happening now? Previous coverage seemed focused primarily on North African migrants on the Mediterranean, but the focus has shifted to Turkey just as they are stepping up their offensive against IS and the PKK. It suggests the situation for refugees in the states bordering the conflict has become unbearable. well there are enormous numbers of refugees there, and going from Turkey to the Greek Islands is a much shorter and relatively safer ride than going via North Africa it's the Syrian route versus the libyan route which was and is used mostly by africans (particularly eritreans and various north africans) iirc
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Sep 4, 2015 03:51
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I think there's some misinterpretation of Lenin's 'refugees should be spread out across many European countries' as 'refugees should go home we can't afford them'.
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Sep 4, 2015 04:09
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Count Roland posted:You're using 10 minutes worth of reasoning to tell the thread how it is and ask the Big Questions. If you really want to understand why and how refugees move about then go to any news site right now. I've been following the news on the war in Syria, and I get that alot of the times the families try to move to atleast a slightly more stable country before they decide who goes off with the smugglers. But even in alot of those countries bad poo poo can happen to you if you don't have adult male relatives around. Sending women and children first would've made it alot harder for far right parties to lable this an "invasion" and continue to scare people with the idea that these are ISIS operatives sneaking into Europe on mass. Distressed women and children are better at garnering sympathy than a bunch of angry men wrestling with riot police. Even though alot of pictures in the media are focused on the few families that are making the lag together, a ton of people are looking at the statistics and are deciding that they have no sympathy for "cowards" who won't try to defend their homes (I've seen tons of comments like that on pretty much every news site I've visited). CommieGIR posted:One side is dropping chemical weapons on them, the other side wants to kill them and take their women AND quite possibly using chemical weapons. And ANOTHER side wants to come in and kill them too. I have no clue outside of embracing nihilism. I can't think of a country in history that's had this many sides duking it out at once (maybe ancient China?).
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Sep 4, 2015 04:28
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V. Illych L. posted:the only point i've contradicted is "making your country a haven for as many refugees as can make it there has no downsides", or its equivalent (which is, of course, wholly monstrous on its face, as it implies that people should have to be subjected to the harrowing test of actually making it to the border in order to be considered for refugee status but that's a dreadfully uncharitable reading so i've assumed SedanChair means something rather different), which is basically what our social democrats said back in the seventies-eighties, which led to essentially no efforts being made to properly integrate foreigners making their homes here, which led to widespread disillusionment (both among immigrant communities and natives) and ghettofication which is still haunting us today in the form of our worst political parties Those parties and the "disillusioned natives" don't need a refugee crisis to hate foreigners. They hate integration as well. e: in any case, I don't see how you disagree with my position. Europeans should be paying to fund "integration" (and sorry, something about the way that word is being used weirds me out) and that's it. There's no use handwringing about agreements or borders, Europeans need to figure this poo poo out. Airlifts, it doesn't matter. This provincial border guard dick-wagging in front of thirsty refugees is not the way a civilized postmodern super-state is supposed to conduct itself. woke wedding drone fucked around with this message at 04:34 on Sep 4, 2015 |
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Sep 4, 2015 04:28
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No.44 posted:. Distressed women and children are better at garnering sympathy than a bunch of angry men wrestling with riot police. And part of the problem even with that is that the women are wearing headscarves generally that sets them aside as different. No, it pretty much took a photo of a dead child to break through the gridlock on this one.
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Sep 4, 2015 05:03
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Meanwhile, in the Sinai, six peacekeepers attached to the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) were injured in two roadside bombings. The first bomb wounded two peacekeepers, and the second wounded four American soldiers who went to the aid of the wounded. None of the injuries were life threatening but I wouldn't be surprised if this leads to the US pulling out the majority of its forces from MFO. There's been a lot of chatter about that lately.
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Sep 4, 2015 05:05
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Volkerball posted:BROWN MOSES I SUMMON THEE Well that plane, if it's actually in Syria, does have the Sukhoi "penis" and otherwise matches up from the side view (unlike the MiG-29).
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Sep 4, 2015 05:21
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Pimpmust posted:Well that plane, if it's actually in Syria, does have the Sukhoi "penis" and otherwise matches up from the side view (unlike the MiG-29). The key question is if the pictures are actually from Syria. I did a reverse image search and got nothing (not surprising). Hopefully Brown Moses can provide some insight on the level of veracity that can be attributed to green-lemonn. Even then it's not direct proof that Russia is conducting air strikes, it could be training missons for all we know. Granted the circumstantial evidence Volkerball posted earlier, along with the reports from the Israeli media indicate otherwise.
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Sep 4, 2015 05:52
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SedanChair posted:Those parties and the "disillusioned natives" don't need a refugee crisis to hate foreigners. They hate integration as well. Actually, the main country that should do something is the United States of America, since they are actually the main culprits for this situation. Right after them is the UK, which was complicit in basically all the US did. Sadly, it's never going to happen. And if the US got the same number of mostly Muslim refugees arriving in their country as we did, then Trump's election would break all previous records.
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Sep 4, 2015 06:11
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I think that if Brown Moses identifies that plane as Russian we'll find out along with the rest of the world when it goes up on Bellingcat. He's moved on from being D&D's unemployed mod to a spot on Putin's enemy list.suboptimal posted:Meanwhile, in the Sinai, six peacekeepers attached to the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) were injured in two roadside bombings. The first bomb wounded two peacekeepers, and the second wounded four American soldiers who went to the aid of the wounded. None of the injuries were life threatening but I wouldn't be surprised if this leads to the US pulling out the majority of its forces from MFO. There's been a lot of chatter about that lately. I'm surprised the US has troops stationed in the Sinai. Just looked up a bit about them now. Is this force really necessary today? It seems odd that there's a mission to keep the peace between Israel and Egypt when they're pretty much allies now. I know Morsi made some symbolic gestures towards Gaza, but even that didn't seem to antagonize Israel too much. I doubt Sisi is going to do anything like that either. Wikipedia says that Americans are the largest contributor to the force. Could it continue without them? That page and their site seem to imply many of the observation stations are isolated and lightly manned which seems to make them an easy target if any of the Sinai insurgent groups want to strike them.
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Sep 4, 2015 06:25
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Atrocious Joe posted:I think that if Brown Moses identifies that plane as Russian we'll find out along with the rest of the world when it goes up on Bellingcat. He's moved on from being D&D's unemployed mod to a spot on Putin's enemy list. He still takes time out of his day arguing with trolls on twitter to pop in and give an update and change the thread title as a joke for us plebes occasionally.
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Sep 4, 2015 06:33
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Volkerball posted:He still takes time out of his day arguing with trolls on twitter to pop in and give an update and change the thread title as a joke for us plebes occasionally. I think it'd be less about time and more that this would be a really big story. Dude helped confirm the last major Russian intervention so he'd probably at least get CC'd by some of the people looking at this one. I wouldn't be surprised if he had partners (NYT not CIA) that were strict about embargoes. Plus it's probably nice to eat meals without a going over them with a geiger counter first.
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Sep 4, 2015 06:46
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For some reason, GBS and all the paranoid subreddits and /pol/ and 8chan loving hate Brown Moses. I like the guy, I just don't think he should be a D&D mod due to the inherent conflicts of interest.
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Sep 4, 2015 06:54
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Phobophilia posted:For some reason, GBS and all the paranoid subreddits and /pol/ and 8chan loving hate Brown Moses. What's the conflict of interest?
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Sep 4, 2015 06:57
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No.44 posted:I'm sorry, are these people not fleeing a war where they're being attacked by both of the armies involved? Do all of these people have relatives that can somehow procure them jobs quickly? Probably they will have to get more money to get the rest of their families across. And men from middle east are a lot more likely to be capable of earning money than women. One isn't going to earn money in a refugee camp in Turkey. Because you see, millions of them are in the camps in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, which are relatively safe (in my opinion). But living in a squalor is no living.
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Sep 4, 2015 07:44
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I'm currently studying abroad in Jordan and attempting to get an internship with an organization that handles matters concerning Syrian refugees. If I get in, I'd be happy to talk about the program and what the situation looks like from the Jordanian side.
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Sep 4, 2015 08:02
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Phobophilia posted:For some reason, GBS and all the paranoid subreddits and /pol/ and 8chan loving hate Brown Moses. He went from random poster to person affecting the world (by posting) which to them is the impossible dream, and as a side effect devalues what limited self worth that type of person has. Also on an ideological level he's basically contra the conspiracy theories that those places love. Best Friends fucked around with this message at 08:16 on Sep 4, 2015 |
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Sep 4, 2015 08:13
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No.44 posted:Even though alot of pictures in the media are focused on the few families that are making the lag together, a ton of people are looking at the statistics and are deciding that they have no sympathy for "cowards" who won't try to defend their homes (I've seen tons of comments like that on pretty much every news site I've visited). This is the most disgusting thing, even my countrymen have gotten into it 
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Sep 4, 2015 08:28
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illrepute posted:I'm currently studying abroad in Jordan and attempting to get an internship with an organization that handles matters concerning Syrian refugees. If I get in, I'd be happy to talk about the program and what the situation looks like from the Jordanian side. I'm definitely interested in hearing this.
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Sep 4, 2015 10:18
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Bait and Swatch posted:The key question is if the pictures are actually from Syria. I did a reverse image search and got nothing (not surprising). Hopefully Brown Moses can provide some insight on the level of veracity that can be attributed to green-lemonn. One of the biggest problems I have with the images is that they're supposedly photos. Now i'm not saying people in syria don't take pictures, but I think we all know that the media coming out of this war is video. That all these pictures of Russian jets are supposedly photos instead of videos just seems wrong, and if they are from grabs from videos, where the rest of it? Also, since you're talking about multiple types of aircraft you're talking about a fairly large commitment of air frames since it boggles the mind to claim you'd send one of each to conduct a few raids. That's just not how it's done. Multiple airframes should mean more sorties which should mean more visual evidence. We shouldn't' be sitting here wondering if some still could be a Russian fighter, there should be a plethora of videos showing Russian airstrikes. About the only thing that could explain the lack of evidence is if the majority of their sorties were again't ISIS and they just started expanding into hitting the rebels, which I'm not sure makes sense geopolitically and also doesn't explain the lack of original videos. More evidence needed.
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Sep 4, 2015 12:03
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