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fade5 posted:
That would require him to recognize an ethnically Kurdish organization as legitimate and since Kurds do not exist according to Turkish nationalism he is unable to do so.
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Oct 13, 2015 20:24
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Darkman Fanpage posted:That would require him to recognize an ethnically Kurdish organization as legitimate and since Kurds do not exist according to Turkish nationalism he is unable to do so. In fairness Erdogan has probably done more to acknowledge that Kurds exists than many previous prime ministers. That's how he managed to win Kurdish votes before doubling down on the whole dragging them behind armoured vehicles thing.
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Oct 13, 2015 20:41
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if Russia is going to use Syria as a testing ground for the armed drones they have been developing? I mean now that the state of Syria has basically become a live fire testing ground (and I do mean LIVE) for all the latest military technology from the US and Russia I figure this would be the time we'd see the debut of Russia's combat UAVs. Russia has no combat UAV's (only scout drones) and will not be for a long time.
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Oct 13, 2015 20:42
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zeal posted:The US and coalition forces literally level Afghan villages with heavy weaponry as a means of trying to control the countryside, rather like the YPG is doing now. Do you have a source for this, or are you referencing the MSF hospital bombing?
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Oct 13, 2015 21:31
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Constant Hamprince posted:I get the feeling that the articles that get passed around on twitter are the highlight reel and the rest of the content is terrible poo poo like "Assad: Maybe good?" and "Why America must build a floating fortress in the Strait of Taiwan". Most likely. That's like with VICE. I never stumble across their articles on skateboards or w/e, so they have a really good reputation for me. Hell, if I didn't know better, I'd think buzzfeed was quality journalism since all I ever see of them is Mike Giglio.
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Oct 13, 2015 21:35
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El Disco posted:Do you have a source for this, or are you referencing the MSF hospital bombing? http://www.wired.com/2011/01/25-tons-of-bombs-wipes-afghan-town-off-the-map/ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-homeless.html https://www.lawfareblog.com/sorry-folks-things-are-not-actually-going-so-great-afghanistan http://www.macleans.ca/general/u-s-military-levels-entire-afghan-village/ US forces levelling population centres is actually pretty standard business.
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Oct 13, 2015 21:36
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So two of those reference the same incident, one doesn't give any specifics, and one is about a natural landslide ( ). And that one incident doesn't seem to imply a pattern:quote:According to Erica Gaston, an Afghanistan-based researcher with the Open Society Institute, the level of property destruction at Tarok Kolache is “extreme” compared to other operations, so it doesn’t appear as if wiping out villages is standard procedure. And an argument could be made that it was justified. So nothing so far says it's standard business.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:07
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DancingShade posted:http://www.wired.com/2011/01/25-tons-of-bombs-wipes-afghan-town-off-the-map/ One of your articles refers to a village destroyed by a mudslide. Unless it was Captain America's doing, I don't see an American pattern. The other articles refer to Tarok Kolache, a small hamlet which the Taliban had turned into a stronghold. Yes it was destroyed, but there were no known civilian casualties, and the owners were compensated. Here's an interesting article three years after it happened: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...03b2_story.html
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Oct 13, 2015 22:17
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What you expect me to actually read all first four URLs I googled? At least one of them was vaguely on target. My links are as accurate as American bombing 
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Oct 13, 2015 22:34
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HOLY MOTHER OF poo poo It's official, Iran has gone down the rabbit hole of a super quagmire. What a huge strategic mistake they've commited, unless they've got a mega-awesome plan prepared they've just handed the gulf countries a huge strategic victory since now they can just keep shoving cash and guns and actually kill Iranians. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 22:38
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Al-Saqr posted:HOLY MOTHER OF poo poo
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Oct 13, 2015 22:40
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There were already thousands tho? An Iranian Colonel just died today, to add to the death of the General last week, who played a large role in the suppression of green movement protests in Iran.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:41
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Volkerball posted:There were already thousands tho? An Iranian Colonel just died today, to add to the death of the General last week, who played a large role in the suppression of green movement protests in Iran. There's a big difference between advisors, Intelligence personell and coordinators, and between rank and file soldiers participating en Masse, they've now handed assad the numbers and infantry he needs to actually take back large cities. of course I think all they've done is ensure that they'll be fed to a never ending meat grinder, but this is a genuinely huge escalation.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:43
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Al-Saqr posted:HOLY MOTHER OF poo poo Holy poo poo, this will not end well? are there any full articles about it yet? Not doubting you or them, just curious.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:44
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Al-Saqr posted:HOLY MOTHER OF poo poo  Welp, so much for that whole peace thing I suppose.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:45
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Reuters has a further article explaining that they'll be used towards taking Aleppo, it's a big mix between thousands of Iranians, With a big roundup of SAA and Hezbollah fighters along with a mass Russian bombardment campaign:- http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-exclusive-idUSKCN0S72U020151013 Why the gently caress would they go about announcing their intentions like this? all they've done is make sure the TOWS will be ready for them in appropriate numbers.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:49
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Al-Saqr posted:HOLY MOTHER OF poo poo Well to be honest Iran was already doing that in Yemen, it is just proxy war on top of proxy war at this point. It looks like they are preparing for a giant assault in Aleppo, I guess opposition forces have been struggling there for a while for a combination of reasons but it is going to boil down to ww2 style house to house fighting. I assume the Russians will probably have some advisers and operators in the fight beyond air support. Thump! posted:
I guess Khamenei putting his foot down was a pretty telling sign that they were going in a big way. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 22:49
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Reuters quoting regime sources saying its on preparation for a major ground offensive on Aleppo supported by Russian air strikes.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:50
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Al-Saqr posted:HOLY MOTHER OF poo poo E: Al-Saqr posted:Reuters has a further article explaining that they'll be used towards taking Aleppo, it's a big mix between thousands of Iranians, With a big roundup of SAA and Hezbollah fighters along with a mass Russian bombardment campaign:-  They are completely loving insane, Aleppo has been a clusterfuck for years and it's an insane clusterfuck even by Syrian Civil War standards. They might be able to accomplish something like clearing the Rastan pocket, but going for Aleppo is going to be such an incredibly bloody clusterfuck, it's like the worst goddamn thing they could chose to do.  fade5 fucked around with this message at 22:55 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 22:50
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Thank god only a few americans (and other brave westerners) are risking their lives for such a lovely part of the world.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:57
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The goal may be to push to connect to Nubl which would cut north Aleppo of from Idlib. In any case I don't trust numbers, even from Reuters. There have been Iranian recruited troops in Aleppo for awhile now and a blind citation of thousands without even identifying who they ar eother than Iranian does nothing for my confidence int he reporting. We'll wait to see developments on the ground. ' In more confirmed news, Russia si taking complete control over th airport in Latakia and turning it into an airbase so they can increase the number of sorties. This ends civilian aviation from the airport and also cuts down on the Arabs that could be expected to be hanging around, improving the security position. The stated goal of increasing the number of sorties per day into the hundreds would require a very large increase in russian presence even from current levels. Don't worry though guys this is a cheap operation that will be over by Christmas. farraday fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 22:57
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They are quoting "regional officials" who may be interested in bigging up the massive Iranian army coming to get you so why don't you just surrender now
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Oct 13, 2015 23:00
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One thing is for sure though, the SAA is lacking manpower, and unless one of Assads allies is going to provide at least 100,000 troops I don't see how they could ever reconquer rebel-held Syria.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:02
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farraday posted:The goal may be to push to connect to Nubl which would cut north Aleppo of from Idlib.  It has sat like this for years and each side has dug in super loving hard, and advances are measured in feet and control of roundabouts. Think WW1-style fighting.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:02
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Will Aleppo be this war`s stalingard. They have enough troops to really attack hard ( presuming these are properly trained and equipped) but that does not seem quite sufficent to actually take the entire city. I mean Aleppo is BIG. For years and years i have heard stories of how a great war would eventually erupt between Iran and the Arab world. Syria was bad enough but at least it was somewhat contained. How d gently caress knows what will happen now. This is just loving great. More refugees for everyone! Erdogan should just take the plunge and invade Syria in defense of Aleppo and declare a state of emergency " for the duration". If our every nigthmare must come true for Syria let it at least be quick.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:04
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Don't we get this exact same news about "thousands of reinforcements" every few months? I'm afraid I'm not going to be terribly impressed until I actually see it.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:04
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They have tried taking occupied parts of Aleppo in the past with little success. I doubt they can do it now, unless it gets bombed to smithereens beforehand (even more than it already is). Speaking of which, is the Russian improvised airbase big enough to operate larger bombers, such as the TU-95?
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Oct 13, 2015 23:06
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fade5 posted:Reminder for the thread, this is Aleppo: Huh, I had no Idea the rebel position was so precarious. From all the propaganda around here I'd been given the impression that Aleppo was all just rebel. It seems like the lifeline to turkey can be cutoff with enough force, and ISIS is such a massive close by presence Russian propaganda can be like 'Oh but we're attacking ISIS you see! look how close they are!'
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Oct 13, 2015 23:07
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Al-Saqr posted:There's a big difference between advisors, Intelligence personell and coordinators, and between rank and file soldiers participating en Masse, they've now handed assad the numbers and infantry he needs to actually take back large cities. of course I think all they've done is ensure that they'll be fed to a never ending meat grinder, but this is a genuinely huge escalation. They've gotten captured pretty drat often, so they weren't just hanging out in some command center in Damascus. Assuming this actually is a large development, did Iran already get the $60b-$140b in unfrozen assets from the deal?
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Oct 13, 2015 23:08
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Baudolino posted:For years and years i have heard stories of how a great war would eventually erupt between Iran and the Arab world. Er. Where were you in the 1980's? it's already happened once before on a much more insane scale.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:08
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Al-Saqr posted:Huh, I had no Idea the rebel position was so precarious. From all the propaganda around here I'd been given the impression that Aleppo was all just rebel. It seems like the lifeline to turkey can be cutoff with enough force, and ISIS is such a massive close by presence Russian propaganda can be like 'Oh but we're attacking ISIS you see! look how close they are!' Yeah, that yin yang looking front line between the rebels and the regime has been there as long as I can remember. Any resolution to Aleppo that isn't a political one is going to be bloody on a whole new level.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:11
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Freezer posted:They have tried taking occupied parts of Aleppo in the past with little success. I doubt they can do it now, unless it gets bombed to smithereens beforehand (even more than it already is). The Bear has a range of thousands of miles. It could take off from Moscow, travel over the Caspian, Iran, and Iraq, bomb, and still fly back o Moscow. There would be absolutely no reason to base on out of Syria even if you decided you needed to use one in Syria
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Oct 13, 2015 23:11
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Al-Saqr posted:Huh, I had no Idea the rebel position was so precarious. From all the propaganda around here I'd been given the impression that Aleppo was all just rebel. It seems like the lifeline to turkey can be cutoff with enough force, and ISIS is such a massive close by presence Russian propaganda can be like 'Oh but we're attacking ISIS you see! look how close they are!' Here's an alternative map:  Assad has tried many, many times to connect Nubl and Zahraa to Bashkuy and cut off the rebels, and every time the rebels beat the SAA back hard. Remember that all of rebel-held Aleppo and all of rebel-controlled Idlib/Jisr al-Shughur lies beyond that chokepoint, the rebels will beat back any attempt to cut them off as if their lives depend on it (which they basically do). fade5 fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 23:11
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Al-Saqr posted:Huh, I had no Idea the rebel position was so precarious. From all the propaganda around here I'd been given the impression that Aleppo was all just rebel. It seems like the lifeline to turkey can be cutoff with enough force, and ISIS is such a massive close by presence Russian propaganda can be like 'Oh but we're attacking ISIS you see! look how close they are!' I wonder how much of the offensive wouldn't be in the fortified center but the city's western and northern supply routes they have become increasingly vulnerable do to ISIS. That said, if the regime is able to starve out rebel areas in Aleppo, I don't think they could sustain that loss especially if ISIS takes Azaz.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:15
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I'm still incredibly leery about this. they've launched multiple offensives in the last two weeks which have had mixed success and this presumed thousand troop reserve is going to be launched into a new offensive in an entirely different area? I don't think the rebels have a cohesive mobility to really draw down manpower from Aleppo to make it more vulnerable so you're just launching a new offensive into troops who are in place. I'm really having a hard time grappling with Syrian strategy here. I mean nothing requires them to be smart but this seems so obviously silly.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:36
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We're seeing our first signs of a possible escalation from Iran. First off, if there's an increase in Iranian action, I'd bet it's related to the death of General Hamedani a few days ago. He met with Khamenei on several different occasions, and was a very influential figure in the IRGC. The loss of a man of his stature is not something Iran would be likely to brush off as just business. Here is a picture of him, General Soleimani, and Khamenei.  Now, per Charles Lister, Soleimani, by far the most regarded and popular General in Iran, has been spotted in Syria rallying pro-Assad fighters. He's been leading the fight in Iraq for the most part, so this is certainly out of the ordinary, although he has come to Syria before to meet with soldiers fighting alongside the regime.    https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/654054884887539712 Of course, it's certainly plausible that Iran and Russia coordinated these moves (assuming they do indeed happen) well before Hamedani's death.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:41
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Volkerball posted:Of course, it's certainly plausible that Iran and Russia coordinated these moves (assuming they do indeed happen) well before Hamedani's death. They would have had to, if the numbers are accurate you couldn't move that many troops so quickly.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:44
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Do the Iranians speak Arabic when they're in Iraq and Syria?
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Oct 13, 2015 23:52
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farraday posted:They would have had to, if the numbers are accurate you couldn't move that many troops so quickly. Of course they're coordinating. Is there a plausible reason for them not to?
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Oct 13, 2015 23:53
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Back To 99 posted:Do the Iranians speak Arabic when they're in Iraq and Syria? Yeah, Soleimani is fluent in Arabic. my dad posted:Of course they're coordinating. Is there a plausible reason for them not to? They're definitely coordinating either way. My thinking is more about whether Iran was talking about escalating its presence when Russia was talking about escalating its presence, or if Russia had already begun getting extra involved without any sort of coordinated plan of action with Iran, and then Iran decided it would join in after the fact. If the Iranian troops are already on the ground, I'd assume this has been long in the works. But if this is just something that is going to happen shortly in the future and it's getting light shed on it now ahead of time, I'd tend to think this is related to Hamedani.
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Oct 13, 2015 23:59
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