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slavatuvs posted:The FSA? Of course they could take it; all things are possible with US air support. The problem would be keeping it.
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Aug 24, 2016 20:42
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Lol at anyone who thinks the Turks are going to go after ISIS. The YPG has been the only consistently anti-ISIS force in this whole trainwreck of a war. I could easily see Erdogan using ISIS as a bargaining chip with Obama and demanding we hand over Gulen/gently caress over the Kurds or he'll tacitly support ISIS. If I were him that's exactly what I'd do
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Aug 24, 2016 20:56
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It's starting to sound like the SDF's movements aren't just a land grab. There are reports that they have taken two villages from the opposition south of the border and my still be on the move.
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Aug 24, 2016 21:00
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icantfindaname posted:Lol at anyone who thinks the Turks are going to go after ISIS. The YPG has been the only consistently anti-ISIS force in this whole trainwreck of a war. I could easily see Erdogan using ISIS as a bargaining chip with Obama and demanding we hand over Gulen/gently caress over the Kurds or he'll tacitly support ISIS. If I were him that's exactly what I'd do However much Erdoğan wants Gulen, he's not going to get extradited unless it can get through a court here. Even if Obama desperately wants Gulen to go there's literally nothing he can do short of overhauling the entire extradition jurisprudence to force him over to Turkey if there's no evidence for his involvement.
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Aug 24, 2016 21:00
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Nitrousoxide posted:However much Erdoğan wants Gulen, he's not going to get extradited unless it can get through a court here. Even if Obama desperately wants Gulen to go there's literally nothing he can do short of overhauling the entire extradition jurisprudence to force him over to Turkey if there's no evidence for his involvement. Right, which is why my expectation is that the war against ISIS/their territorial losses in Syria are going to grind to a halt
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Aug 24, 2016 21:03
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I can't tell you how surprised I am that Turkey just happened to invade at the same time ISIS withdrew from Jarabulus and is attacking the Kurds south of Hasakah. 
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Aug 24, 2016 21:10
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Sinteres posted:I can't tell you how surprised I am that Turkey just happened to invade at the same time ISIS withdrew from Jarabulus and is attacking the Kurds south of Hasakah. ISIS withdrew because there was no point to fight the Turkish military, those numbers would be much better used manning defensible positions.
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Aug 24, 2016 21:25
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slavatuvs posted:ISIS withdrew because there was no point to fight the Turkish military, those numbers would be much better used manning defensible positions. Yeah, fighting their ally would be pretty dumb.
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Aug 24, 2016 21:28
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slavatuvs posted:ISIS withdrew because there was no point to fight the Turkish military, those numbers would be much better used manning defensible positions. That never stopped ISIS, the faction that is more than happy to employ suicide bombers. Also the 400th anniversary of ottoman invasion of Syria.
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Aug 24, 2016 21:28
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Torpor posted:Also the 400th anniversary of ottoman invasion of Syria. 500th https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Marj_Dabiq
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Aug 24, 2016 21:33
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Torpor posted:That never stopped ISIS, the faction that is more than happy to employ suicide bombers. They use suicide bombers when they're useful, a svied is expensive, throwing them at Leopard 2s is a waste of resources.
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Aug 24, 2016 21:37
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It's funny because part of the reason the YPG/SDF control so much area east of the Euphrates is because ISIS withdrew from several places with minimal fighting when they turned up with the USAF.
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Aug 24, 2016 21:51
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Where do they go though?
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Aug 24, 2016 21:51
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Radio Prune posted:It's funny because part of the reason the YPG/SDF control so much area east of the Euphrates is because ISIS withdrew from several places with minimal fighting when they turned up with the USAF. I think Manbij has taught them the value of holding major cities, it's the one place USAF support is minimized. Kurtofan posted:Where do they go though? Tabqa or Al-Bab
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Aug 24, 2016 22:18
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Meanwhile the UN/OPCW confirms the Syrian government used chlorine in two attacks, and ISIS used mustard in another http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-chemicalweapons-idUKKCN10Z2L7 quote:Syrian government troops were responsible for two toxic gas attacks and Islamic State militants used sulphur mustard gas, a joint investigation by the United Nations and the global chemical weapons watchdog found on Wednesday, according to a confidential report seen by Reuters.
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Aug 24, 2016 22:22
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So were there us airstrikes supporting to turkish push or is f-16s === US airstrikes re: early reports?
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Aug 24, 2016 23:21
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Turkish AF has F16s, so their use doesn't mean a thing one way or another wrt the US.
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Aug 25, 2016 00:02
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:So were there us airstrikes supporting to turkish push or is f-16s === US airstrikes re: early reports? Yeah, Turkey has a lot of F-16 and unless they got rid of all their pilots during the purges they'd be my first guess as to which nation in particular contributed a couple of F-16 participated in Operation Euphrates Hypocrisy.
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Aug 25, 2016 00:07
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Clearly what we need to do is have a US-assisted Kurdish invasion of Turkey. The real Syrian Civil War starts here  
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Aug 25, 2016 00:43
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Sinteres posted:The worst part to me isn't that we're picking Turkey over the YPG. It's that we're picking a Turkey under Erdogan that cynically fed ISIS recruits while being perfectly content to have them as neighbors before suddenly deciding an "anti-ISIS" campaign was necessary because the US-backed Kurds were making real gains. That's leaving aside the devastation Turkey's inflicting on Kurds inside their own borders, and the way they've openly supported Al Qaeda in Syria. Erdogan is at best a frenemy at this point, so pretending our alliance is strong makes our leaders seem stupid and craven. I think even under those circumstances it would be all but impossible to choose the YPG over Turkey, but there should be a limit. Allowing Turkey some kind of border zone is one thing, especially west of the Euphrates, but an incursion without limits would be another thing entirely. I don't think it makes your leaders seem stupid and craven at all. Just, as usual, willing to stop supporting their allies, if they outlived their usefulness, at the drop of a hat, previous accomplishments be damned. I know it's nothing personal against the Kurds at all, because this is just the same poo poo that US foreign policy has always been during the past century, really. Work with whomever is at the location in question, who can best serve the US's geopolitical aims, and help subdue all its opposition. It's why it supported straight up murderous dictators in Latin America while screaming 'freedom' against the USSR, and it's why it'll very likely suck Erdogan's circumsized dick hard from this point on to keep him in NATO, even as he devolves further and further into a dictator himself. Whatever gets the US what it wants, with next to no regard to what the local impact will be, that is what US foreign policy has always been. poo poo, that's what most country's foreign policy always is, it's just the US that happens to have the biggest hammer with which to smash other people's teeth in if they bridle, provide them support with if they're useful, or threaten withdrawing it if they've outlived said usefulness.
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Aug 25, 2016 00:47
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What does Erdogan has to offer to the west? He's clearly not going to keep the region stable, him making friends with Putin means he's questionable as the gatekeeper of the black sea and I don't think that we need his freshly purged army for anything in the near future so we are we backing him over a small but mostly west-friendly(well, not any more after today)faction that's actually helping clean up daesh instead of secretly and not so secretly supporting them? It's not like Erdogan is going to be grateful for this for longer than a week anyway.
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Aug 25, 2016 00:51
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The Kurds have tried to get as much land as they can while US air support is still in the skies. Without it are they really any better than any other rebel group? Like are goons here really expecting the Kurds to be effective at all if USAF support dries up?
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Aug 25, 2016 00:56
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CrazyLoon posted:I don't think it makes your leaders seem stupid and craven at all. Just, as usual, willing to stop supporting their allies, if they outlived their usefulness, at the drop of a hat, previous accomplishments be damned. I don't think abandoning the Kurds per se makes Obama-Biden look craven and weak, but I do think pretending Erdogan's a friend of America in the process and Biden going out of his way to lavish love and attention on him when we know for a fact Obama hates his guts is stupid and craven. Yeah, I get that they're just doing what it takes to keep what they see as a strong piece on their side of the chess board, but I think critics of American foreign policy who protest that we're far more interested in placating our allies and clients than they are in keeping us happy have a point, and maybe the US doesn't have to be friends with every bad actor around the world. It's an idea Obama's flirted with, but it would represent a sea change in US foreign policy, and I can see why it's a gamble he's not willing to fully commit to. I still think today's performative bear hug by Biden was sickening though.
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Aug 25, 2016 00:59
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CrazyLoon posted:I don't think it makes your leaders seem stupid and craven at all. Just, as usual, willing to stop supporting their allies, if they outlived their usefulness, at the drop of a hat, previous accomplishments be damned. When did the US indicate it was going to stop supporting Turkey now that they've "outlived their usefulness" and betray a more than 50 year old formal military alliance "at the drop of a hat, previous accomplishments be damned"?  ... ... Oh, you're referring to the relatively recent arrangements with a bunch of unrecognized Kurdish groups? 
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Aug 25, 2016 01:24
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eigenstate posted:When did the US indicate it was going to stop supporting Turkey now that they've "outlived their usefulness" and betray a more than 50 year old formal military alliance "at the drop of a hat, previous accomplishments be damned"? Uh, it still looks bad. I mean it looks so bad that we stuck around in Vietnam simply to accomplish not looking really bad for abandoning people.
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Aug 25, 2016 01:32
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Asehujiko posted:What does Erdogan has to offer to the west? He's clearly not going to keep the region stable, him making friends with Putin means he's questionable as the gatekeeper of the black sea and I don't think that we need his freshly purged army for anything in the near future so we are we backing him over a small but mostly west-friendly(well, not any more after today)faction that's actually helping clean up daesh instead of secretly and not so secretly supporting them? It's not like Erdogan is going to be grateful for this for longer than a week anyway. Turkey's geography makes it very strategic. Look at a map. It (especially Istanbul) is the bridge from West to East. If you want to move something over land- goods, people, pipelines- then you go through Turkey or you go through Russia (which usually takes longer). So when Syrian refugees stream into Europe, or the price of energy goes up and down, or when international trade comes up, Turkey is a major country to talk to. It also controls the Bosphorus. Some posters earlier were snickering at this, but it remains very important. Turkey control's Russia's access to the Med, and to a decent extent its access to to the oceans in general. So if you care about Russia's naval power (and a lot do care, especially these days) then you want Turkey on your side for that, as well. Turkey is also a staunchly secular*, muslim nation, that is pretty stable, has close links to Europe, and a lot of historical clout in the region. So if you find dealing with the muslim middle east confusing or dangerous, Turkey is a pretty good proxy to use, as they have a foot in both camps, so to speak. *this is of course not set in stone for all time. Turkey has also developed quite a lot over the past few decades- it has a population of around 80 million and its economy is one of the biggest in the region. It has a large military and a strong national identity. Whatever internal problems it faces (and it has quite a few) its a safe bet that Turkey will still be around in some form in 50 and 100 and 200 years. Unlike some of the barely-post-colonial states that can barely hold themselves together. All these, and I'm sure more I'm not thinking of, are good reasons to have Turkey on your side. Which is why despite a lot of fuckery, Turkey has been a part of NATO for a long time, and will continue to be in the future.
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Aug 25, 2016 01:42
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Torpor posted:Uh, it still looks bad. I mean it looks so bad that we stuck around in Vietnam simply to accomplish not looking really bad for abandoning people. I'm not sure you can say that the Kurds are being abandoned. They may want something they can't have (control of the land between the cantons but it was known like, forever, that it would be unlikely that they would end up with it. I personally would love to see an independent Kurdistan carved out of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran with a stable, secular government but the chances of that happening are next to nil given the geopolitics. They currently have more than they ever have and I sincerely hope they get to "keep" it in a post-war Syria in the form of local control, semi-autonomous region, however things shake out.
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Aug 25, 2016 02:04
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:I'm not sure you can say that the Kurds are being abandoned. They may want something they can't have (control of the land between the cantons but it was known like, forever, that it would be unlikely that they would end up with it. I personally would love to see an independent Kurdistan carved out of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran with a stable, secular government but the chances of that happening are next to nil given the geopolitics. They currently have more than they ever have and I sincerely hope they get to "keep" it in a post-war Syria in the form of local control, semi-autonomous region, however things shake out. Also this hypothetical Kurdistan would be landlocked and its access to the outside world would be controlled by the same countries it was formed from. I can't see how Kurdistan comes into existence and becomes functioning and stable without the complete destruction and reworking of the Middle Eastern map. Their best chances are the semi-autonomous regions, but even that's a struggle in Iraq right now and the faintest of possibilities in Syria. Good luck even mentioning such a thing in public in Turkey or Iran though.
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Aug 25, 2016 02:35
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Count Roland posted:
Yeah, uh, not if Erdogan has anything to say about it. Which surprise, he suddenly has a lot more clout/pull to say about it now! Pretty sure the secular institutions were among the first against the wall in the latest purges.
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Aug 25, 2016 02:40
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Also this hypothetical Kurdistan would be landlocked and its access to the outside world would be controlled by the same countries it was formed from. I can't see how Kurdistan comes into existence and becomes functioning and stable without the complete destruction and reworking of the Middle Eastern map. This hypothetical Kurdistan would probably border Armenia, and via them Georgia. A precarious reach to the outside world, but would not be *completely* cut off by the 4 nations it took land from.
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Aug 25, 2016 06:27
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Sinteres posted:The worst part to me isn't that we're picking Turkey over the YPG. It's that we're picking a Turkey under Erdogan that cynically fed ISIS recruits while being perfectly content to have them as neighbors before suddenly deciding an "anti-ISIS" campaign was necessary because the US-backed Kurds were making real gains. That's leaving aside the devastation Turkey's inflicting on Kurds inside their own borders, and the way they've openly supported Al Qaeda in Syria. Erdogan is at best a frenemy at this point, so pretending our alliance is strong makes our leaders seem stupid and craven. I think even under those circumstances it would be all but impossible to choose the YPG over Turkey, but there should be a limit. Allowing Turkey some kind of border zone is one thing, especially west of the Euphrates, but an incursion without limits would be another thing entirely.
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Aug 25, 2016 08:06
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OAquinas posted:Yeah, uh, not if Erdogan has anything to say about it. Which surprise, he suddenly has a lot more clout/pull to say about it now! Yeah, the Islamic Republic of Turkey has been the AKP's end goal since the beginning and they've already rolled back a lot of the reforms Kemal made to secularize Turkey.
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Aug 25, 2016 10:29
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:I'm not sure you can say that the Kurds are being abandoned. They may want something they can't have (control of the land between the cantons but it was known like, forever, that it would be unlikely that they would end up with it. I personally would love to see an independent Kurdistan carved out of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran with a stable, secular government but the chances of that happening are next to nil given the geopolitics. They currently have more than they ever have and I sincerely hope they get to "keep" it in a post-war Syria in the form of local control, semi-autonomous region, however things shake out. People are extremely over dramatic when it comes to new developments in this war. It sucks that the Kurds have to give up Manbiji but realistically they had very little land on the West side of the Euphrates and the US is probably the only reason the SDF exists at all.
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Aug 25, 2016 12:46
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Russia's response to the OPCW/UN report showing their Syrian ally used chemical weapons:quote:Lavrov: US Must Fulfill Own Promises Before Voicing Demands Regarding Damascus
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Aug 25, 2016 12:58
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'moderate Syrian opposition'? That still exists? It appears that the Darayya pocket is finally crumbling. I know, kind of unimportant news over the Turkish intervention in the Jarablus area, but still a marked victory for the SAA. That pocket has tied up thousands of troops for 4 years. It's final collapse marks the end of any direct threat to Damascus.
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Aug 25, 2016 13:04
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A White Guy posted:'moderate Syrian opposition'? That still exists? No, but I think that's the point.
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Aug 25, 2016 14:56
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A White Guy posted:'moderate Syrian opposition'? That still exists? Well, YPG seems to be rallying people under the SDF flag, so there might still be hope. Though they still are a completely unknown quantity.
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Aug 25, 2016 14:59
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It's Schrodinger's withdrawal: https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/768723431412019201 quote:US Secretary of State John Kerry has told Turkey's FM that Kurdish forces in the SDF have withdrawn from the west side of the Euphrates - AA https://twitter.com/OIRSpox/status/768717145626775552 quote:The Syrian Democratic Forces have moved east across the Euphrates to prepare for the eventual liberation of Raqqa, Syria #defeatdaesh So apparently the US is going to say the YPG has withdrawn regardless of whether the YPG actually withdraws or not. Well that doesn't sound like abandonment, that sounds like we're lying out our asses and hoping Turkey buys it. E: Maps, grain of salt, etc  https://twitter.com/Syria_Rebel_Obs/status/768843243677184000 quote:Situation NOW as #SDF advancing along #Sajur and after the Ayn al-Bayda battle won this night by #SDF. #Jarablus fade5 fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Aug 25, 2016 |
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Aug 25, 2016 17:20
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Updates from the official Turkish account for the military operation. https://twitter.com/EuphratesShield/status/768829697601990656 Also this interesting map shows ISIS might be feeling under pressure https://twitter.com/Nawaroliver/status/768827245058265088 Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Aug 25, 2016 |
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Aug 25, 2016 17:32
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Hey we're pretending to believe that Turkey is interested in fighting against Daesh; the least they can do is return the courtesy and pretend to believe that the Kurds went away.
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Aug 25, 2016 17:33
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