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TildeATH posted:If Assad was smart he'd hire Bellincat to reverse geolocate the position of all those TOW videos. Be a great way for Brown Moses to get back in Putin's good graces. I was actually figuring it out today, you can get a good idea where the camera filming it all is positioned, certainly enough to drop a bomb on the structure and destroy it.
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Aug 26, 2016 23:00
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Brown Moses posted:I was actually figuring it out today, you can get a good idea where the camera filming it all is positioned, certainly enough to drop a bomb on the structure and destroy it. And then you could move from disrupting investigative journalism to disrupting the battlefield intelligence market! I smell startup!
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Aug 26, 2016 23:03
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Rotacixe posted:Automatic grenade launchers would probably be something the rebels could use there. They are relatively simple to employ since firing and observation can be done from the same spot. You think they'd have some Plamyas, since it's one of those weapons in the pre-war Syrian arsenal, but they seem to be pretty rare. Did the rebels get their hands on Chinese Type 87s at one point? I remember Armament Research Services doing an article on it with pics from Syria. Anyway, they definitely don't have the accuracy like a TOW or a Konkurs SACLOS. Looking into, the only thing currently that would probably produce a large anti-personnel effect would like be the Qa'em, which is a missile for the Toophan or the Iranian TOW knockoff. The Qa'em is designed mostly for use against helicopters, so I'd guess it produces fragmentation to get a proximity kill, like most anti-aircraft weapons. Of course, that's all Hezabollah equipment, so it's unlikely we'd see that in rebel hands. BTW, I'm not sure if anyone saw this, but this is from February. Video of a TOW supposedly disabling a T90. Of particular interest is that T90 is equipped with the SHTORA "soft-kill" anti-ATGM defense system, which is said to jam the visual sensors of ATGMs and automatically pop smoke to defeat incoming threats. As seen in the video, the system failed to activate or detect incoming, resulting in a hit to the turret. The manufacturer was shown the video and claimed that the system wasn't turned on, which sounds like it could be rear end covering. The only thing that saved the crew was the turret front face by being layered with reactive armor, otherwise it would have brewed up just like the Syrian T72s. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOJSz1WOEg
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Aug 26, 2016 23:13
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Hob_Gadling posted:Closest thing you can get for that purpose are (bigger) recoilless rifles, which have range similar to a missile and purpose-built HE rounds. They're also much cheaper in all respects. As a downside they aren't guided, which means you need more training to actually hit reliably. Aren't there man-portable recoilless rifle options a la. carl gustaf?
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Aug 26, 2016 23:15
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Bueno Papi posted:Aren't there man-portable recoilless rifle options a la. carl gustaf? Carl Gustav doesn't have the range. You need SPG-9, B10, M40 or the like. Some of the bigger RRs are semi-portable too, you just need a crew to lug them and their ammo around. More commonly they're mounted on technicals, but if you really have a good spot like that wall...
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Aug 26, 2016 23:22
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TildeATH posted:And then you could move from disrupting investigative journalism to disrupting the battlefield intelligence market! I smell startup! I hear In-Q-Tel is always on the lookout for great ideas! There should be an X-prize for geolocation software that can find the location based off of the image and the meta data.
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Aug 27, 2016 00:11
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A couple of mortars would probably be a pretty cost-effective approach assuming they can get reasonable first-shot accuracy. If my very rough calculations are approximately correct, they could be getting 50% of the rounds dropping within 20 meters of the target, which has to be more effective at taking out crowds than a loving TOW.
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Aug 27, 2016 01:04
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mobby_6kl posted:A couple of mortars would probably be a pretty cost-effective approach assuming they can get reasonable first-shot accuracy. If my very rough calculations are approximately correct, they could be getting 50% of the rounds dropping within 20 meters of the target, which has to be more effective at taking out crowds than a loving TOW. Maybe I'm too stuck in WWII tactics, but mortar fire requires ranging and calibration, meaning it would take minutes for anything to land within an effective range.
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Aug 27, 2016 01:14
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steinrokkan posted:Maybe I'm too stuck in WWII tactics, but mortar fire requires ranging and calibration, meaning it would take minutes for anything to land within an effective range. I mean if it's trained in the same spot you just have to correct for wind each time it's used once it's dialed in. Assuming of course that they don't move the mortors. But the tow seems to being fired from the same spot so that might be possible.
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Aug 27, 2016 01:17
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guys, guys, you're all ignoring the most important strategic benefit to firing TOWs like this... ...you get to yell Allahu Akbar for your propaganda vid!
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Aug 27, 2016 01:45
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steinrokkan posted:Maybe I'm too stuck in WWII tactics, but mortar fire requires ranging and calibration, meaning it would take minutes for anything to land within an effective range. You are. They didnt have digital rangefinders nor Google maps for that matter in WWII. Even without that, they coule have their mortar crews (albeit maybe only 1?) Zeroed in to certain hotspots they expect pocketing in. It is however effectiven psyops to have a TOW land anywhere near you with no discernable operator to kill. Injury or not. The fact that they're delivering ordinance at 1000 meters. The rebels will learn more effective means of killing these guys. But so far what they are doing is cost effective.  TOW production sure has ramped up hasn't it
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Aug 27, 2016 01:46
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My guess for how that video happened: Dudes are sitting on a roof, scanning their surroundings with binoculars, and see a large amount of armed men hanging out behind a wall. So, instead of radioing, they just said gently caress it, got the TOW setup pointed in the right direction, turned on the cameras, and got an ultra-kill. You've gotta remember these aren't exactly super highly trained guys out there fighting.
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Aug 27, 2016 01:49
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A White Guy posted:My guess for how that video happened: Dudes are sitting on a roof, scanning their surroundings with binoculars, and see a large amount of armed men hanging out behind a wall. So, instead of radioing, they just said gently caress it, got the TOW setup pointed in the right direction, turned on the cameras, and got an ultra-kill. he killed like 3 dudes. hardly an ultra-kill in the syrian war I mean assad gasses like 20 people before he puts on his morning slippers
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Aug 27, 2016 01:52
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I mean to be fair, manpower is probably the most valuable resource for the rebels, not material. So anything that nets you kills with no loses its probably what you'll use.
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Aug 27, 2016 01:55
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Nitrousoxide posted:I mean to be fair, manpower is probably the most valuable resource for the rebels, not material. So anything that nets you kills with no loses its probably what you'll use. Well yes, but these non casualties arent going to forget about this contact.
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Aug 27, 2016 01:58
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LeoMarr posted:he killed like 3 dudes. hardly an ultra-kill in the syrian war I mean assad gasses like 20 people before he puts on his morning slippers He killed 3 dudes at a kilometer's distance. They're beyond effective rifle range (AK-47's effective range is about 350 meters), and for the tools they had, that's a pretty good ratio.
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Aug 27, 2016 02:01
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More comedy in Egypt.quote:An Egyptian TV host and staunch supporter of the country's army-chief-turned-president has shut down his Twitter account after his improvised poll in favor of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi backfired. http://www.voanews.com/a/egypt-sissi-twitter-poll/3482099.html
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Aug 27, 2016 02:05
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LeoMarr posted:TOW production sure has ramped up hasn't it It's not like the rebels are paying for them and I'm guessing that tanks are no longer that plentiful on the Assad side. They're pretty much surplus that we're giving them away. Nitrousoxide posted:I mean to be fair, manpower is probably the most valuable resource for the rebels, not material. So anything that nets you kills with no loses its probably what you'll use. This is pretty true for Syria at this point. It's been pretty much tapped out in those regards.
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Aug 27, 2016 02:27
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mobby_6kl posted:A couple of mortars would probably be a pretty cost-effective approach assuming they can get reasonable first-shot accuracy. If my very rough calculations are approximately correct, they could be getting 50% of the rounds dropping within 20 meters of the target, which has to be more effective at taking out crowds than a loving TOW. They probably did hit them with mortars as well and we just didn't see because of the video's length. They certainly do have mortars there as this was released on the same day and in almost the same spot. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/769142569452367872?s=09
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Aug 27, 2016 02:30
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Ikasuhito posted:They probably did hit them with mortars as well and we just didn't see because of the video's length. They certainly do have mortars there as this was released on the same day and in almost the same spot. There's been a few videos like this already, one posted a few days ago showed about a dozen corpses abandoned around those shallow trenches. Really goes to show why artillery still rules the battlefield. Also makes me wonder if the rebels have been able to effectively use their drones as spotters as has been done in eastern Ukraine. Squalid fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Aug 27, 2016 |
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Aug 27, 2016 02:59
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Squalid posted:Really goes to show why artillery is the Queen of battle. It's not.
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Aug 27, 2016 03:03
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For those curious what this looks like without the dead link:   Volkerball posted:It's not. Whoops, mixing up my aphorisms. fixed!
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Aug 27, 2016 03:04
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Volkerball posted:It's not. Please don't do unsubstantiated contention in my MEC thread, please?
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Aug 27, 2016 03:23
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I think this discussion may miss a broader point. While the rebels may have a devastating kill zone to massacre grunts the regime has successfully taken, defended and likely fortified a key hill that overlooks the main road supplying the Aleppo salient. https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/769293699503325184 This position allows ATGM fire on vehicles going right next to it. Supposedly the rebels threw tanks at the position and failed big, not unlike several desperate assaults in Mallah farms. Once experienced soldiers are dug in with dedicated air support it is a heavy cost to remove them, if even possible. The kill zones the regime may have developed is just as savage and lethal to the rebels as the corpse wall they're building. What does this mean to the actual supply into Aleppo? Can the regime squeeze the lines sufficiently to the point where the siege may as well be reinstated? Does this then put an under armed rebel force in an extremely tight defensive battle in a corridor with limited mobility in a battle they couldn't possibly win? If this is a battle of corpses the regime has anywhere from several hundred to over a thousand soldiers to throw into the fire due to the two negotiated settlements in Hasakah and Darya as well.
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Aug 27, 2016 03:24
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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/769349059349995520
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Aug 27, 2016 03:48
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It seems, that in the calculus of foreign policy, the US has decided the Turks outweigh the Kurds. I think that this is going be a foreign policy mistake that will haunt the US for years.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:13
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The YPG has never been for independence though right? Just a federalized Syria. Which may be just as much of a pipe dream. Independence is a bigger goal for the KDP in Iraq. I've been following that reporter since the Turkish coup and he deserves the paycheck he's earning from AKP for staying on script. https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/769202991043862529 https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/768809494826680320 https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/768809914881941505 https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/768802576879976448 https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/768803341140914177
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Aug 27, 2016 05:19
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A White Guy posted:It seems, that in the calculus of foreign policy, the US has decided the Turks outweigh the Kurds. I think that this is going be a foreign policy mistake that will haunt the US for years. Why a mistake though? US intervention in Syria has been for the most part anti-ISIS. I don't think the US has made any promises about an independent Syrian Kurdistan.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:42
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Hey guys remember when I told all of you that this was exactly what was going to happen and that the Kurdish political parties hosed themselves over super hard by adopting a narrow ethnic mindset and not coming to the aid of the revolution from the get go while tons of Syrians who supported their rights were still alive? And that once their usefulness against ISIS had been expended the us Air Force and seals teams would stop handholding them to victory and immediately throw them to the gaping maws of more important allies like the Turks? Guess what. Not only is Assad now likely to live a full life and die of natural causes, The Syrian Revolution has been irreversibly damaged everywhere except Aleppo, the Turks are warming up to Assad staying and are sucking up to the Russians and once cuntfaced putin and Assad are done with Aleppo You bet they won't be leaving the Kurds in peace. So no democracy for Syria, Bashar will hang around and rule over literal rubble, jihadis and alqaeda types will keep on to the very end, no 'secular communist Rojava' is going to come about. and now Syria is now going to be under Turkish, Russian and Iranian spheres for the foreseeable future. But hey at least ISIS is going down until another incarnation just as bad takes their place 10 years down the road because the fundamental problem hadn't been dealt with. So in the end, nobody will win, neither the Arabs nor the Kurds, except for that rabid animal Bashar thanks to pig poo poo Putin and assface Soleimani. ( of course I will also add thanks to Turkish cowardice and the gulf turning the Syrian opposition into their playthings played a huge role in undermining the Syrian oppositions ability to pose a united front back when they might've mattered). But hey, what do I know. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 06:26 on Aug 27, 2016 |
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Aug 27, 2016 06:22
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How would all that be different if the Kurds hadn't adopted their "narrow ethnic mindset"?
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Aug 27, 2016 06:30
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Joke's on all of you who thought anything could have ever changed.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:46
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Count Roland posted:How would all that be different if the Kurds hadn't adopted their "narrow ethnic mindset"? For starters, it's not "the Kurds." The KNC came out very militaristic against Assad after Mashaal Tammo was assassinated. It was the PYD. And there were no guarantees, but that doesn't mean they didn't have every reason to give it everything they had try and make it work. There's absolutely no doubt that with Kurdish support, the opposition would've been more combat effective. How much more is up for debate, but that's besides the point. They were in an existential struggle and they didn't even show up for the fight. That's a fool's move no matter how you slice it.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:46
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Count Roland posted:How would all that be different if the Kurds hadn't adopted their "narrow ethnic mindset"? Large areas of Syria would've been safe havens beyond the reach of Assads secret police back when they were starting to round up the unarmed opposition to fill up mass graves, more areas for refugees to escape safely to, less Syrians would've needed to resort to the various Islamist parties for immediate physical survival from Assad, better more cohesive poltical opposition, more manpower and guns against Assads death squads, less fertilization ground for ISIS to take root, etc. In any case. It's too late now, everyone is hosed.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:46
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Bueno Papi posted:Why a mistake though? US intervention in Syria has been for the most part anti-ISIS. I don't think the US has made any promises about an independent Syrian Kurdistan. It's a mistake for a few reasons, the biggest one being that the US is directly backstabbing their 2nd-strongest ally. Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia,Turkey will all work with the US, sure, but there's no love lost between us and them. Both sides understand the relationship is purely one of convenience. But Kurdistan, Kurdistan could have been different. A nation rising out of the ashes of pretend states like Iraq and Syria, one that would be eternally grateful for the valuable aid that the US rendered them. By saying "lol, gently caress you guys, someone who's clearly aligning with our arch-enemy is our best friend", we've ruined PR with the Kurds for at least a generation. People are going to go old remembering how the US hosed the Kurds over back in 2016. Instead of aiding an actual nation to become an actual nation, we've instead decided to embark upon this completely naive approach with dealing with ISIS, for whom the writing has been on the wall since mid-2015.
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Aug 27, 2016 08:13
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Volkerball when you say KNC do you mean literally the Kurdish National Council, or the component parties making it up? Because from what I can tell it was founded right after Mashaal Tammo died and while anti-Assad it seemed to advocate "Kurdish autonomy." While the YPG is only sort of neutral now and early on probably best seen as pro-Assad, I don't think an organisation sponsored by Barzani is innocent of a narrow ethnic mindset. http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/48502 - for my KNC info https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mashaal_Tammo - for Tammo info But I live in a nation responsible for this clusterfuck and the details probably don't matter to the dead and dying so sorry if I'm wrong.
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Aug 27, 2016 08:13
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A White Guy posted:But Kurdistan, Kurdistan could have been different. A nation rising out of the ashes of pretend states like Iraq and Syria, one that would be eternally grateful for the valuable aid that the US rendered them. Supporting Kurdistan comes at the cost of eternally pissing off fellow NATO member Turkey and dismantling Iraq. Even if Turkey is a bit of a loose gun, that's the best way to make them cuddle up with Putin. And for what gain to the US? Einbauschrank fucked around with this message at 09:09 on Aug 27, 2016 |
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Aug 27, 2016 09:01
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Atrocious Joe posted:Volkerball when you say KNC do you mean literally the Kurdish National Council, or the component parties making it up? Because from what I can tell it was founded right after Mashaal Tammo died and while anti-Assad it seemed to advocate "Kurdish autonomy." While the YPG is only sort of neutral now and early on probably best seen as pro-Assad, I don't think an organisation sponsored by Barzani is innocent of a narrow ethnic mindset. Tammo was the head of what became a component party. I can't tell you much about that parties links to Barzani, but they certainly play to the same audience. The area around Qamishli and Hasakah. I tend to think it's due to the memories of the Qamishli massacre still lingering, but whatever the case, that area seems to be the main hotbed of Kurdish dissent against the regime, and by association, against the PYD. Even today, that's where the fighting against the regime and the protests against the PYD almost always happen. I don't think you could put the KNC and Tammo as a 1:1 match due to Tammo being much softer on autonomy, putting him at odds with a lot of Kurdish nationalists. But he was a very prominent figure because of his imprisonment by the regime prior to the revolution, and the circumstances around his death. Tens of thousands protested against the regime at his funeral in Qamishli, and that escalation was so large that it eventually sparked the regime withdrawal from Rojava to try and avoid opening up another front. How many of those people were for or against autonomy is debatable, but they were certainly united against the regime. Whatever the case, I think they would've found a lot more success for whatever they supported by focusing more on being a part of the revolution rather than just trying to capitalize off of it. 90% of the criticism you hear from Arab opposition figures when it comes to the YPD's goals boils back around to "Assad supporters." Had that dynamic not been there, there would've been a much better platform for pushing for whatever it is the Kurdish people in Rojava supported, and I think that's something both the KNC and Tammo recognized. So it may be an ethnic mindset, but I wouldn't call it narrow. Certainly not nearly as narrow as the PYD's perspective.
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Aug 27, 2016 09:09
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A White Guy posted:It's a mistake for a few reasons, the biggest one being that the US is directly backstabbing their 2nd-strongest ally. Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia,Turkey will all work with the US, sure, but there's no love lost between us and them. Both sides understand the relationship is purely one of convenience. But Kurdistan, Kurdistan could have been different. A nation rising out of the ashes of pretend states like Iraq and Syria, one that would be eternally grateful for the valuable aid that the US rendered them. By saying "lol, gently caress you guys, someone who's clearly aligning with our arch-enemy is our best friend", we've ruined PR with the Kurds for at least a generation. People are going to go old remembering how the US hosed the Kurds over back in 2016. Instead of aiding an actual nation to become an actual nation, we've instead decided to embark upon this completely naive approach with dealing with ISIS, for whom the writing has been on the wall since mid-2015. how will the usa operate without the kurds in the future?!?!??!
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Aug 27, 2016 09:11
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Einbauschrank posted:Supporting Kurdistan comes at the cost of eternally pissing off fellow NATO member Turkey and dismantling Iraq. Even if Turkey is a bit of a loose gun, that's the best way to make them cuddle up with Putin. And for what gain to the US? The problem with Turkey being a fellow NATO member is that it's an artifact of a bygone age. Turkey's NATO membership came about solely because the Soviets attempted to bully them into giving them control, in name or practically, of the Straits. Now, Turkey's right-wing AKP runs a virtual dictatorship in all but name, and finds itself at odds with a democractic Europe. Turkey's reason for continued membership in NATO continues to disspate. It's an alliance filled with EU members who will never let Turkey into the EU now, especially now that the 'coup' has failed to replace Erdogan. Consequently, Erdogan's best intersts lie with Russia, even without the US provoking them to. The reason why I see supporting Turkey over the Kurds as a bad move, is that in my mind, Turkey and Russia are inevitably going to be best buds. They share too much, ideologically and realpolitik wise, to not be best friends. As for Kurdistan, we lost out on an opportunity to create another Israel. We could've had a nation-state that would actually be friendly to our other nation-state that everyone hates (and who dominates politics in Washington, but minor point). Instead, we earned their undying enemity, and for what? The temporary aid of an 'ally' who's going to go off the ranch in a few years time.
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Aug 27, 2016 09:14
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A White Guy posted:The problem with Turkey being a fellow NATO member is that it's an artifact of a bygone age. Turkey's NATO membership came about solely because the Soviets attempted to bully them into giving them control, in name or practically, of the Straits. Now, Turkey's right-wing AKP runs a virtual dictatorship in all but name, and finds itself at odds with a democractic Europe. Turkey's reason for continued membership in NATO continues to disspate. It's an alliance filled with EU members who will never let Turkey into the EU now, especially now that the 'coup' has failed to replace Erdogan. Consequently, Erdogan's best intersts lie with Russia, even without the US provoking them to. When was the last time Turkey shot down a US jet? Maybe factor that into your best buds analysis. And the US has personnel stationed at Incirlik basically all the time, and it's one of the most strategically important airfields in the middle east, which is one of the most strategically important regions in the world. Rojava just does not and is not going to have that kind of geopolitical clout. The whole area is rural, small, and poor.
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Aug 27, 2016 09:19
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